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DTs Pre Market Prep

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9th May



Well, the Iran news kept yesterday interesting. It was CNN dropping the first "leak" on the news that shook the market and then Mr T soon came in to correct - and all of course before 2pm...


Quoting 
Mr T has promised an announcement on Iran today. It's scheduled for 2pm. Saying that, you never know if he'll tweet his decision before hand or start dropping hints.

So today we have high news risk again. Also - watch 2682.50 as we haven't broken that level for a while.



Big fat range, says the profile - but we are at the top of it. If we move back down into it - expect chop.



A nice pop up overnight so far.

Plan
- High news risk
- Longs above 82.50, careful as we approach 2720
- Expecting chop if we move down below 2670
- News may well invalidate any pre-market analysis

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591.25 -> 2684.50
Value - 2616.50 -> 2654.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652 -> 2674.25
Value - 2660.25 -> 2668.25
Globex - 2666.50 -> 2684.50

Settlement 2670.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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10th May



We broke out from that level that had held us the last week or so and there's another one above. If we can get through 2718.25, I'm hoping we can be free of this range and put in a decent move to 2820. Hopefully not in 1 day.



Not much here of use in my opinion.



A really slow start yesterday on Crude and the S&P. Another of those days where the open was lackluster and the action came later in the day. Bit of a pain that.

Eyes on the news this AM - maybe unemployment numbers/CPI can give us a boost.

Plan
- Look for early trade in case volatility comes in late
- Bias long looking for a test of 2718.25
- After that will play any reaction up or down from 2718.25
- No plan if there's no test as we are still in an area we chopped around a lot

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25> 2702.75
Value - 2661-> 2769

Daily Numbers
Range - 2666.50 / 2672 -> 2700
Value - 2678.50 -> 2700
Globex - 2692.75-> 2702.75

Settlement 2696

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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11th May



We got to the 2718 level yesterday and we've had a bit of a pause here, I'm still bullish with a view to a move to 2820. So we just need to shake off this 2718 level first.



Not much here that's not on the dailies - but obviously not much trade between 2717 and 2703 - so careful if 17 breaks.



Trading mostly within yesterdays value range overnight. So first order is breaking that one way or the other.

Plan
- Long bias
- Looking for a break out of yesterdays value - medium term target 2820
- below 2717, looking at a potential run down to 2703, so eyes on that for a short
- Looking for an early trade around this overnight volume as we've been in a tight area so potential for stop run is good

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2652.25> 2727
Value - pretty far below!

Daily Numbers
Range - 2692.75 / 2703-> 2725.25
Value - 2713.50-> 2723.50
Globex - 2716-> 2727

Settlement 2718.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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14th May



Still heading up, still targeting 2800-2820.



Really not much for us here other than that upper distribution that bottoms out around 2617.



Most trading today has been above Fridays range, so eyes on that too.

Note - some changes at the CME regarding TACO "Trade at Cash Open" trades. More here - https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2018/04/SER-8124R.pdf

Plan
- Long bias, target 2800-2820
- Will revert to short bias below 2717
- looking for plays off Fridays high/value high if we do pull back - but ready to play long with no pullback

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2732.50
Value - 2656 -> 2701

Daily Numbers
Range - 2716.25 / 2716.75 -> 2732.50
Value - 2720.25 -> 2727.75
Globex - 2727.25 -> 2741

Settlement – 2729.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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DionysusToast View Post
14th May

...
Note - some changes at the CME regarding TACO "Trade at Cash Open" trades. More here - https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2018/04/SER-8124R.pdf

I have no idea what this means. What impacts should we expect from this change? Any idea?

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trendisyourfriend View Post
I have no idea what this means. What impacts should we expect from this change? Any idea?

No idea - have to just wait & see I think.

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15th May



Interesting - we have just about poked through the 2718.50 level and back to test it. It's holding so far. That gives us a reference point as we know lots of people will be looking at the level. So if it holds and we move up, we should expect decent participation.



Not much from the weekly profiles yet.



Yesterday we had, a pivot around 2732 with half the days trade above and half below. Eyes on that level today as we've stayed below it.

Plan
- eyes on 2732 and 2718 - looking for tests of either to bring in participation
- not that bothered between the two prices
- also looking at the normal day trader levels
- will still look for an early trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2732.50
Value - 2656 -> 2701

Daily Numbers
Range - 2724.25/ 2741.25
Value - 2726.25 -> 2736.25
Globex - 2720.50 -> 2731.25

Settlement 2724.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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16th May



Back into the chop zone, hopefully we'll turn up around or before we get to 2680. If we carry on down it's back into the chop and fairly directionless trade.

So for today and perhaps the next few days, biased downside and waiting to see if this is a pullback. 2680 might be a bit deep, so for today, we'll look at yesterdays low.

Of course, we might turn up in the middle of nowhere, which is fine - but a turn on a level people will be watching is going to attract more participation. So moves up from a level should be traded more aggressively

.

Not much to see here still. Just showing us the same thing we see on the daily profiles.



Which is chop 2700- 2716 - but just 1 day and 1 nights worth of chop.

Plan
- look for an early trade as chance of chop is high
- Not so interested in trading within yesterdays range, so 2700 and 2715 (overnight high) are the first prices of interest and will be looking to fade them if the volume is low/indices not moving together
- looking for longs if we hold yesterdays low or get to 2680 and move up.
- longs also above 2715
- shorts below 2700

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2700.75 -> 2729.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2717 / 2731.25
Value - 2703.75 -> 2711.25
Globex - 2704.50 -> 2714.75

Settlement 2709

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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17th May



Turning into a range week. I'm back to neutral in the short term. I still see us hitting 2820 in the medium term.



Weekly profile doesn't help much.



Looking at this, we can see we've held yesterdays value area overnight, so the day trader levels appear to be in play. So watching yesterdays high/low.

Plan
- look for an early trade as chance of chop is high
- look for trades off the day trader levels below
- other than that, very much a wait & see day - in terms of whether we can escape this small range we are in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2704.25 -> 2728.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2704.50 / 2711 -> 2728
Value - 2716 -> 2727
Globex - 2716 -> 2725.25

Settlement – 2723

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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21st May



Well - we ended up in a tight range last week. Volume was low, not sure if this is indicative of heading into summertime low volatility but first order of the day is whether we can get out of this choppy area.



A 40 point range is a lot lower than we've seen off late. Last weeks VP is really one big distribution we do have an LVN at 32, so eyes on that as potential top of range going forward.



A gap up on the Sunday trade but now back into the range.

Plan
- Presume range is in effect. Fades 2704 and 2732
- look for an early trade as it may be choppy
- look for intraday ranges to form as it's likely the days range won't reach 04.
- On an upside break - be cautious until we can break the weeks high.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50 -> 2741.25
Value - 2709-> 2730

Daily Numbers
Range - 2708.75 -> 2719.75 / 2727
Value - 2712.50 -> 2717
Globex - 2724.25 -> 2736.25

Settlement 2713

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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