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DTs Pre Market Prep

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13th March



Not much action yesterday. Despite the volatility, this is how smaller range weeks set up, so let's put that option on the table for today..



Not much taper at the top & bottom, so if we are looking at a low range few days, we could probe below 85 and above 05 but should fall back into range.



Opposing this theory is the fact there's not much traded to the left - pretty much all the way down to 2647.

Plan
- Fade moves around 85 & 05 - looking out for headfakes to fade
- Careful below, will jump on any failure to hold the lower end with a target of 2750
- Be ready to switch as this range is just an option - I don't like it as it's been so volatile - but when the start of the week sets up like this in less volatile times, we often range. So just playing it as I see it for today.


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2668.75-> 2792
Value - 2695.25 -> 2703

Daily Numbers
Range - 2784.25 -> 2802.25 / 2805.25
Value - 2787.25 -> 2796
Globex - 2786.25 -> 2792.25

Settlement 2784

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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14th March



We were looking at 2 things yesterday....
- potential 2785-2805 range
- drop to 2750 if the range breaks

We did hold the top of the range and couldn't hold the bottom for long and we saw a decent drop. Not as low as 2750 yet.



We can see here that very little trading last week between where we are to 2750 - so still an eye on that.



At the moment, we are rotating around yesterdays low. So the break of that low should give us a good run as traders get stopped out.

Plan
- Look out for an early trade.
- Join moves downside looking for 2750
- other than that, no real bias, expecting a return to volatility and looking to scale into moves

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2668.75-> 2792
Value - 2695.25 -> 2703

Daily Numbers
Range - 2762.50 -> 2807.25
Value - 2766.50 -> 2789
Globex - 2762.25 -> 2775

Settlement 2768.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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15th March



Yesterday we were looking for a downside move to hit the 2750 area, that's done now. We are back to the middle of the larger range which is 2650-2800. We've hit the low once and the top twice.

So after this reaction at 2750, we need to see if we'll continue up or complete that larger range to the downside.



This weeks profile is interesting - and looks more the way a trend week would look. You can see how the top of last weeks upper distribution came into play yesterday. Doesn't mean it'll hold but does mean it's significant.



The market is certainly taking pause here. You can see we've probed through 2750 overnight, so.....

Plan
- looking to see if overall range is in progress or smaller one.
- 2750 is the inflection point so longs above & shorts below. Long term short target 2650. Longs target 2800

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2748 -> 2782.50 / 2783.50
Value - 2750 -> 2767
Globex - 2745-> 2762.25

Settlement 2754

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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16th March



Still hovering around that inflection point at 50 - market looks undecided so far. We've had a probe down but just 4 points. yesterday was really a switch in pace, with slow range-bound mechanics in play. Obviously the longer we stay in this area, the sloppier the action will be.



The profile is really not showing us much that we didn't know yesterday - we are just building volume at the bottom of the weeks range.



Yesterday you can see we opened in a range and then extended it pretty much the same amount each side.

Plan
- Looking to play the range
- eyes on breaks outside of yesterdays range to jump on momentum moves but lower expectation
- eyes also on yesterdays range/value range for fades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2745 / 2745.75 -> 2767.25
Value - 2750.50 -> 2761
Globex - 2750.25 -> 2759.50

Settlement 2755.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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19th March



We had a very narrow day on Friday, we were looking for 50 to break decisively to see some follow through. It didn't happen on Friday but it has happened overnight.

We can see the potential range in the yellow box. So downside target is 2650 (not in 1 day though)

As usual with big overnight moves - we want to see if the day session accepts it or rejects it...



Based on the weekly profiles. I'd be looking for 2750 to hold from below for a continuation down. If we can test 50's, I think more people will jump on board and we'll have a cleaner move down.

Other than that, I don't see much use for the weekly profile.



you can see that to the left, we pushed through 50 a few times last week, so I'm going to put that "test area" from 50 to a range 45-50 - it's a bit wide but that's what it's showing us.

Note also that Fridays value low held, so the daily values may be in play today.

Plan
- Look for an opening trade
- If market stays down into the open - look out for an initial 'rebalance' up and don't put too much faith in that initial move
- Ideal trade would be a move back up to 45-50 and then a push down with participation
- Other than that - long above 50 and short below it
- eyes on Fridays levels too (as Fridays value held)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2750.25 / 2753.50 -> 2766.25
Value - 2756.50-> 2764
Globex - 2733 -> 2756.50

Settlement –2756

Today only 2745-2750

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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20th March



Yesterday we were looking for a test of 45-50 area for a high participation move down.


Quoting 
Based on the weekly profiles. I'd be looking for 2750 to hold from below for a continuation down. If we can test 50's, I think more people will jump on board and we'll have a cleaner move down.

You can see that to the left, we pushed through 50 a few times last week, so I'm going to put that "test area" from 50 to a range 45-50 - it's a bit wide but that's what it's showing us.

We hit 45.25 before taking a dive and we did indeed see decent participation. Volume was above 2 million for the day.

If the range in the box above is in play, we are looking at a target of 2650 before turning back up.



Not much to see here - just a long move down on the first day of the week. Still have eyes on 45-50.



As usual after a big down day we look out for high participation - which could be a snap back up or continuation.

We've continued the bounce upside overnight, so into the open we just look to see how that plays out when the 'real' volume comes in.

Plan
- High expectation day
- Not really looking at levels (except 2650 and 2745) - mostly looking for a large momentum move
- More than happy to be long or short


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2745-> 2807.25
Value - even distribution - not using it this week

Daily Numbers
Range - 2697.25 -> 2745.25
Value - 2699 -> 2723.50
Globex - 2716.25 -> 2728.50

Settlement –2722.75

Today only 2745-2750, 2650

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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21st March



As you can see - not much happened yesterday - so we are in the same place as we were in yesterdays prep - just with lower expectations.

FOMC today, so expecting a slow start.



Not much to see here, market in a range.



Obviously, we'll be watching this range today 2712.75->2729. There's a good chance we'll hold till FOMC and after that there's the potential of a break up to 2750 or down to 2650

Plan
- Low expectation in the morning
- Look aggresively for an early trade as it may be all we have
- Then play 2712-2729 range
- Revise opinion after FOMC moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2697.25-> 2756.50
Value - 2703.50 -> 2728.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2712.75 -> 2727.75 / 2729
Value - 2717.25 -> 2724.75
Globex - 2717.25 -> 2727.75

Settlement 2723.50

Today only 2745-2750, 2650

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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22nd March



Big picture is more price progression downards. Still with an eye to 2650. 2700 has been significant in the past and we've taken a pause there.



The range from earlier in the week bottoms out around 2712.



Yesterday, we can see the flurry after the FOMC, we've mad a similar extension down overnight.

Plan
- look out for a rebalance off the open if we stay below yesterdays lows
- use 2700 as a pivot - longs above, shorts below
- careful as we head up to 2712

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2697.25-> 2756.50
Value - 2703.50 -> 2728.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2712.75 -> 2727.75 / 2729
Value - 2717.25 -> 2724.75
Globex - 2717.25 -> 2727.75

Settlement –2718.25

Today only 2745-2750, 2650

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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23rd March



We got to the 2650 level and beyond.We may be looking to test 2530 below, so eyes on a breakdown but also eyes our on a move back up to 2800 from here.



Not much from the weekly profile - as it's so elongated, value area no longer relevant.



Eyes on 2663 into the open. We had a big push down overnight but it's recovering.

Plan
- As per yesterday - any rebalance up off the open will be taken with a grain of salt
- Longs above 2650 - looking at that as a sign we are done to the downside
- shorts below yesterdays low - looking at that as a sign we are going to test the recent lows

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2617 -> 2756.50
Value - too elongated

Daily Numbers
Range - 2642 -> 2698 / 2726.25
Value - 2668.50 -> 2690
Globex - 2617 -> 2648.25

Settlement 2532.50

Today only 2650

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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26th March



We have a few options as to where the end of the range could now be. The move up off the top of the potential middle range is just overnight action - so it may be wiped out at the open.

Path of least resistance is down, so for longs we really need to see volume on our side.



The lower distribution from last week bottoms out around 2626 - but obviously needs to be given some breathing room. If we do see a push down from here, my presumption is that traders will pile on.



This doesn't add much - other than showing the relationship between the late break on Friday and the overnight action

Plan
- bias down, so need strong signals to play longs
- with that in mind we have just hit a potential range low
- play breaks of Fridays low short
- look for strong order flow/volume to play any long moves - err on the side of caution

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2586 -> 2756.50
Value - 2652.75 - 2756.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2586 -> 2658.75
Value - 2627 -> 2654.50
Globex - 2591 -> 2629.75

Settlement 2597.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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