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DTs Pre Market Prep

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17th October



We popped the top of our range but no follow through as yet. In fact, it's pretty lackluster.



Last weeks profile was very evenly distributed and yesterdays profile was the same, so probability of rangebound behavior is quite high. It's not clear yet whether last weeks range will impact this weeks action.



A pretty slow market yesterday with us once again seeing a decent trade off the open and then us testing the overnight high both sides - with a 5 tick push through the range either side.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Look for trades outside of the yesterdays range
- Low expectation day overall

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2555.50
Value - 2545 -> 2551
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2550.75 -> 2557.75
Value - 2552.25 -> 2554.75
Globex - 2554.25 -> 2557

Settlement – 2556.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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18th October



738k traded yesterday - complete lack of interest. Patience is needed while we are in this range.



We are still showing a very regular, D-shaped profile for the week, so trades in the middle are off the table for me, unless directly off the open.



Yesterday we moved down to overnight low, then up and down again to prior days VAL, so the 'regular' daily levels are being observed, even though it's slow. So keep an eye on them.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Look for fades at the extremes of the weeks range + the levels below
- Low expectation day overall, until we can break the range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2555.50
Value - 2545 -> 2551
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2552.25 -> 2557.75
Value - 2553.50 -> 2557.75
Globex - 2556.25 -> 2558.50

Settlement – 2557

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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19th October



A bit of a move down overnight - well into last weeks range, so an eye on that today.



We didnt' make it quite as low as the bottom of the major distribution from last week - but it does look pretty volatile still, so won't be surprised if we push down again.



It's very volatile at the moment, so it's hard to comment on what to do off the open as I don't know where it'll be. After an extended push down we often have a 'rebalance' at the open. In this case we could expect an initial pop up off the open (if we open below 50... Best to let that play out or just play it long term.

After that it's looking for volatility and if we get it -riding with it. It could just be that this European move is just a flash in the pan and that the US session is dull again.

Plan
- Look for an early trade but be aware it could just be rebalancing
- Go with any move if it's volatile.
- If not - revert back to fading extremes/yesterdays levels
- Be flexible - hard to predict what the US session will bring after this overnight move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2562.25
Value - 2552.50 -> 2558.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers

Range - 2556.25 / 2557.25 -> 2562/2562.25
Value - 2558.75 -> 2561.25
Globex - 2542.50 -> 2560.75

Settlement – 2560.00

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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20th October



A lot of volume and volatility yesterday which has continued overnight. Interesting times.



A wide range for the week compared to what we've seen but most volume 2552.25 -> 2561.25



So we don't know what's happning - whether we are entering a new period of volatility, the market is marking out a new range that it'll settle into, if this is the last gasp before a reversal. Hopefully we are going to experience some volatility as it's been pretty useless since September.

Plan
- Opening trade on today
- After the opening trade, just follow momemtum, try to scale into trades
- We do have the potential to be opening a decent gap up - so be wary of any initial moves down - like yesterdays opening move, it may be just rebalancing
- If momemtum/volatility dies after the open - look for a trade off the usual levels.
- Pay particular attention to 52.25 & 61.25 today

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2571.25
Value - 2552.25 -> 2561.25
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2542.50 / 2545.25 -> 2560.50/2560.75
Value - 2558.75 -> 2561.25
Globex - 2559.50-> 2571.75

Settlement – 2560.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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23rd October



An interesting few days we had on Thursday on Friday. Interesting in that it was more volatile and that the big moves were made overnight with the day sessions just retracing those moves.



Eyes on 2564 if we do move down. That's the upper distribution from last week. If we do move down through that and below 2560, I'll be looking for us to work to the lower part of the bigger distribution to 2552.



A move up overnight but the volatility from Thursday and Friday night sessions has gone for now. This is very much a wait & see day. We are at new highs - not much other than Fridays/overnights levels to play off. So we have to see how it plays out.

Plan
- Opening trade on today
- Watching Friday/Overnight levels but the history doesn't help much today
- So watching for ranges/volatility to guide us off the open

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2542.50 -> 2573.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2561.75
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2559.50 /2566 -> 2573.25
Value - 2566.50 -> 2571.50
Globex - 2572.50-> 2577.25

Settlement – 2574

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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24th October



A volatile day yesterday and decent volume. So hopefully, we can see some more volatility today.



We have stopped short of the main distribution from last week. So be on the lookout for any snaps back up today.



We basically opened at the overnight high and moved down for the whole day. Now - I'm not sure about you but I can't actually remember the last time we had a one way down day like this. So people will be bearing that in mind today and if we do push down again (eyes on Friday low of 2559.50), I think we'll see a lot of downside participation. For the short term anyway.

Overnight we have held yesterdays low so far, so a technical market at the moment and eyes will be on the usual levels.

Plan
- No bias at this point
- short bias below 59.50
- Just watching for volatility and moves at our regular levels, will jump on any volatility move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2573.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2561.75
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2562 -> 2576.75 / 2577.25
Value - 2567.50 -> 2575
Globex - 2561.50-> 2566.50

Settlement – 2563.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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26th October



2 Million contracts traded and a big range yesterday. We really seem to have decent volatility when we push down.



An elongated week and as such - I tend to not pay too much attention to the weeks profile and certainly not the value area.



So far, we can see that we have held above the value area/late swing from yesterday. Into today, once again we are watching for volatility. We are switching from high to low volatility from day to day, so each day the first thing we have to do is get a handle on how the volatility is playing out. For index futures we watch:

- How well the ES, NQ, YM are moving together (if not - low volatility)
- The amount of market depth on the ES (if mostly above 1000 a level - low volatility)
- switches as we get to extremes of volume/regular levels

Plan
- Open trade on
- No bias at all into today
- Wait & see day... Eyes on volatility and play accordingly - scaling in if it looks like a volatile move
- Eyes on the regular levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2573.25
Value - not worth following
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2565 / 2576
Value - 2546.75 -> 2557.25
Globex - 2556.75 -> 2560

Settlement – 2558.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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27th October



I'm still looking for a consolidation zone, I've market out a potential area which will need to be refined as we go. Nothing to do today about this - but let's watch it over the next few days.



An elongated week with most trading between 57.25 & 68.75 - which pretty well marks out the overnight range so far. So I am watching for a decent push down if we break 52.75.



We are experiencing swings in volatility with yesterday being low volatility. If you look at the purple lines you can see we help the prior days high and value high. As we mentioned a few days ago the shallow days are choppy but seem to be reasonable to play given the observance of the usual levels.

I'm not sure if the overnight volatility - higher than yesterdays day session, points to a volatile day or not. So an eye on that.

Plan
- Eyes on volatility after the open - then use that as a guide how to play it.
- Look for an early trade (in case it's low volatility)
- If low volatility - look for the market to observe the usual levels
- If high volatility - try to scale into a move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2577.25
Value - 2556.60 -?> 2569
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2556.25 / 2557.25 -> 2565
Value - 2559 -> 2562.50
Globex - 2557.50 -> 2569.25

Settlement – 2561.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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30th October



FOMC this week - so a possible slow start.. overall we are at the top of our presumed range, so looking for an extension away and a retest or a move to the lows. The move to the lows being the more likely.



The major distribution from last week tops out around 2568 - so caution as we approach that.



Also watching 2571 - Fridays value low.

Plan
- Opening trade on (as FOMC later might cause it to be slow)
- Looking for continuation downside to the bottom of our range (around 2540)
- Longs if we can move away from 75 with volume and return to test it

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2580.75
Value - 2556.50 -> 2571.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2557.50 / 2563.25 -> 2580.75
Value - 2571 -> 2580.50
Globex - 2572.25-> 2578.25

Settlement – 2578.50

Today only 2568, 2571

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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31st October



Still around the top of the range - we were looking for a move down from the top yesterday & got that albeit a narrow move. Again as it's FOMC this week, it'll probably be slow till then.



Nothing really to report from this other than we dipped into last weeks major distribution and popped up.



We held the low of the late range from yesterday. So an eye on 2571. Other than that, watch the usual levels

Plan
- Look for opening trade as it could be choppy after
- Downside bias overall
- Look for a trade off one of yesterdays levels or any reasonable backstop that forms intraday if market moves down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2580.75
Value - 2556.50 -> 2571.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2565.50 -> 2577.50 / 2578.25
Value - 2567.75 -> 2573.25
Globex - 2566.75-> 2570.25

Settlement – 2568.25

Today only 2568, 2571

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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1st November

Happy FOMC day....



Not much movement yesterday but then it is FOMC today. Not that any real changes are expected but I guess the market needs to rest ahead of it and then have it's little fling when the announcement comes...



Not much to see in the profile yet - expected when waiting for the FOMC



Plan
- Look for opening trade as it could be choppy after
- Low expectation day going into FOMC - volatility afterwards.
- will watch the first 30 mins - if no activity, no trading

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2565.50 -> 2578.25
Value - 2570.50 -> 2576.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2565.75 / 2569 -> 2575.50
Value - 2572.25 -> 2574.75
Globex - 2571 -> 2581.50

Settlement – 2583.50

Today only 2568, 2571

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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2nd November



We had a nice push to new highs and nnow back into range. Still looking for signs of weakness to take us back to 2540.



We've had a push down overnight but got most of it back. Looking to hold yesterdays low/value low on any move up. Above that my bearish argument breaks down a little.

Plan
- early trade on
- look for signs of weakness for continuation to the botton of the range
- look for longs if we trade above 75

Platform crashed! Can't get the levels today...

Settlement – 2574.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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3rd November



Well - we've had plenty of attempts to push down off the top of our presumed range. We had a good push down yesterday and great momentum but buyers quickly jumped in. So an open mind today



A very evenly distributed profile so far this week. We are now at the top of that around 78.50 - definitely bullish above that, expecting churn down to 66 if we can't break 78.50.



Great push down through the overnight low and then a spring back up. No movement overnight though.

Plan
- open minded
- longs above 78.50
- shorts below until we get to 66, then watching to see if the bottom of the profile holds
- follow the volatility basically - but open minded 'cause it has been fast-slow-fast-slow etc. of late

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2568.25 -> 2577.25
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2578.25
Value - 2569 -> 2575
Globex - 2576 -> 2579.25

Settlement – 25878.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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 ShaunG 
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So much for the “quiet” (FOMC) day yesterday! Nice move to the downside from the open! If I am correct, I counted “12” handles to the down side before the bounce back up to finish back near where we opened. Regarding today, I agree thigs are still looking very bullish!

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6th November



Watching to see if this is just range extension or the market wanting to move up. Can't tell either way, so no assumptions going into today.



Last weeks profile doesn't help that much - we do have one main distribution, so let's put the low of it 67.75 on the radar. We already ignored the high of it overnight.



So far overnight we've managed to just retract Fridays day session. So watch the overnight/Friday extremes into today

Plan
- No bias going into today
- Eyes out for an open trade in case it slows down through indecision
- Looking to jump on any volume moves, especially downside as I think we'll have some good volume if a down move becomes apparent.
- Not that hopeful of many people joining a pop up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2569.25 -> 2578.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2573.50 -> 2585.50
Value - 2577 -> 2585.50
Globex - 2575.50 -> 2584.75

Settlement – 2582.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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7th November



Market did move up on low volume. As expected yesterday, we didn't expect much excitement to the upside. If we do continue up though - we may have people feeling they are missing out - so watch for any upside volume today.



Nothing of note on the weekly profiles at the moment.



We've continued up a little overnight - but only about a 6 point range. Yesterdays value low we hit 3 times (2585.25) - so eyes on that today.

Plan
- early trade on (may chop later)
- watch the usual levels for regular speculator behavior
- expect chop to the upside until it 'clicks' that traders might be missing out - cautiously join when they do
- downside runs still more likely to show excess than upside, so scale into any volume downside moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2562.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2569.25 -> 2578.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2575.50 / 2582.25 -> 2590
Value - 2585.25 -> 2588.75
Globex - 2587.50 -> 2593.50

Settlement – 2590.75

Today only - 2595.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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8th November



New all time high and then we dropped off again. Mixed signals with no clear direction. As per yesterday the downside seems to be a lot more interesting to traders


Quoting 
downside runs still more likely to show excess than upside, so scale into any volume downside moves



A very typical range indicating profile - be wary short below 2580 as there's a possible fade trade on there.



Also an eye on 87.50 the late pullback. Note that yesterday we bounced at - overnight high vol area, overnight high, prior day VAH, prior day VAL. So market is definitely doing the dance....

Plan

- No real bias
- early trade on (may chop later)
- watch the usual levels for regular speculator behavior
- wary at 87.50 and 80.00 - no trades between 87.50 and 80.00
- downside runs still more likely to show excess than upside, so scale into any volume downside moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2575.50 -> 2593.50
Value - 2580.50 -> 2589.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2580.75 -> 2593.50
Value - 2582.50 -> 2588.75
Globex - 2579.85 -> 2587.50

Settlement – 2586.75

Today only - 2587.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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9th November



Market still edging up - without much excitement. Downside moves still showing more exitement.



As per yesterday - a very "D" shaped profile - which indicated rangebound behavior. Yesterday we poked through the low of the major distribution (2580 as per yesterdays prep) and from there moved the top of it overnight - so all other things equal - looking to test 2580 area again before rolling back up.



Looking back at the past 3 sessions, it's going to be harder to engage between 80 and 90 as we've been over it so many times.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 80 and 90. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- No, really... nothing between 80 and 90 ;-)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2575.50 -> 2594.50
Value - 2582 -> 2591

Daily Numbers
Range - 2579.75 / 2581.50 -> 2592.50
Value - 2582.50 -> 2590
Globex - 2584.50 -> 2594.50

Settlement – 2591

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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Veterans day - no trading today!

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13th November



Not a very clean move here. Plenty of room for lots of differences of opiinion. So looking for signs of clarity.



Beautiful D shaped profile last week. Nice to look at, usually ugly to trade. Looking to take trades outside the bulk of tha - say 75-92.



Very small range on Friday which was a bank holiday. Really market was all over the place last week.


Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 75 and 92. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- Also - eyes on any breakdowns as downside is where all the momentum has been
- likely a wait & see day as it's quite unclear.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2563.25 -> 2594.50
Value - 2578.25-> 2591

Daily Numbers
Range - 2571.50 / 2573 -> 2581.75 / 2585.75
Value - 2574.75 -> 2579.25
Globex - 2576.50 -> 2584.50

Settlement – 2578

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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14th November



As per yesterdays prep - it's still unclear but at least now we have 2 days with a really tight range - we might not break that today but it is energy waiting to blow off when it does break. So 2070-2083 is the range.



VP for this week starting to shape up a lot like last weeks - eyes on this for the time being.



Pretty easy today - wait for an extreme and fade it as long as there's not a mass of momentum as we approach. When this 2 day range does break - try to jump on as we'll likely have stops.

After a break - play it by ear....

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 70 and 83. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- Jump on a break if we see a lot of aggression as we might have a decent stop run

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2563.25 -> 2594.50
Value - 2578.25-> 2591

Daily Numbers
Range - 2570,25 / 2572 -> 2585.50
Value - 2579.50 -> 2584
Globex - 2577.25 -> 2582.25

Settlement – 2582

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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 Grantx 
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DionysusToast View Post
Settlement – 2582

Hi DT, what does settlement mean and why is it important in your analysis?

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Settlement Price
The official daily closing price of futures and options on futures contracts, as determined in accordance with Rule 813, used by the Clearing House for marking all open positions at the close of the daily settlement cycle.
https://institute.cmegroup.com/support/glossary

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15th November



Bit of a Connor McGreggor market "You'll do nuttink". Moved down yesterday but then straight back up and overnight down again. Eyes on 2593 as we've had 3 hits to that area and no push through yet. Not necessarily saying it's a definite long trade as much of an area of interest. We could see a nice run down if it does break.



Ugly - indicates range extension more than continued downside. Let's see..



You can see how violent the push down was and the push back up - them market snoozed in the afternoon. So our premise of downside moves being of more interest to speculators are holding. Saying that, still hard to set a bias into today.

Plan
- No bias
- short below yesterdays range but caution at 2593 area.
- Other than that - play the usual levels and follow the volume as I'm not seeing much in terms of longer term levels or obvious profile levels

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2564.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2573-> 2583.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2564.25 -> 2578.25 / 2582.25
Value - 2572.25 -> 2577.75
Globex - 2565.50 -> 2578

Settlement – 2578

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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Grantx View Post
Hi DT, what does settlement mean and why is it important in your analysis?

As Midas said - it's the settlement - or the 'real' closing price.

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No prep today...


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DionysusToast View Post
No prep today...






Enjoy!


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20th Nov



Still unclear and waiting for a decent range to form - but with an eye on both 2562 and 2539.25 as potential low points. Not trading those but watching for participation upside if one of those levels hold.



The volume profile tapers out below at 2562 and above at 2584.50. Not much else of interest on there for me.



Not much move on Friday. This weeks a holiday week - so watch out for general lack of participation. We know the tail end of the weak will be slow but it might be slow from the start.

Plan
- look for an open trade considering it could well be slow thereafter
- look for participation away from one of our regular levels (below) or the levels mentioned above.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2555.50 -> 2589.50
Value - 2569.75-> 2584.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2576.25 -> 2583.25 / 2586
Value - 2579 -> 2581.50
Globex - 2567.75 -> 2578.75

Settlement – 2569.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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21st November

2 days left till Thanksgiving, 3 days to Black Friday carnage!



Volume lo yesterday - around a million contracts. Crude was a much better trade.



Price-wise, we stayed within last weeks range during the day session. We were on the lookout for 84.50 yesterday and the high was 84 but so late in the day as to most likely be well missed by most.



Overnight, we've traded around yesterdays value area. Still eyes on 84.50 above but also an eye on the regular daily levels. Yesterday the open trade setup was a bit fuzzy, no clear step in the profile from overnight as the top of the closest high volume area tapered off but my guesstimate was about 76.50 with it being the closest area above 5k contracts traded. We got down to 77 and I completely had my eye off the ball at that point. The open was so slow, I didn't think it's push down as far as it did as quick as it did. You snooze, you lose...

Plan
- Look our for the early/open trade
- eyes on 84.50 above (which basically means a headfake through yesterdays high at this point)
- eyes also on the regular levels
- hard to see where we'd have a spike in participation but down from a push up is best by the book
- definitely a day where we might not have much on the table

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2555.50 -> 2589.50
Value - 2569.75-> 2584.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2567.75 / 2577 -> 2584
Value - 2580.25 -> 2583.25
Globex - 2579.25 -> 2583.25

Settlement – 2582

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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22nd November



A pop up through the highs was a nice surprise yesterday. Now looking for signs we'll roll over to the bottom of our range (wherever that is).



Very little trade from here down to 2584 - so of we push down, we could be back at 84 very quickly.



You can see the same thing here, big push up but and no real volume on the way up. It's now the day before Thanksgiving, so we might not see much of anything.

Plan
- Watch for a breakdown for a quick move back to 84 and potentially beyond
- To the upside, I think a scale in is appropriate as it's new ground
- Not much else here other than eye on volatility as it's holiday tomorrow

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2600.50
Value - N/A - too extended

Daily Numbers
Range - 2579.25/ 2589.25 -> 2600.50
Value - 2595.75 -> 2599.25
Globex - 2594.50 -> 2599.25

Settlement – 2596.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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28th November



Moving up but it's hard work, slow choppy days - trying our patience. It's hard to see what's going to increase volatility as we head to the New Year.



The upper distribution from last week bottoms out around 94 - so eyes on that if we push down further, we might see some downside volatility if that breaks.



A lot of overlapping sessions here. Overnight we've held yesterdays low.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Looking for a trade off the open as it may chop later
- Watching the usual daily levels for a reaction
- Interested in a break of 94, will jump on any moves down through there as there's a decent chance volatility will increase

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2603
Value - 2582 -> 2602.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2596.50 / 2597.75 -> 2605.50
Value - 2599.75 -> 2603
Globex - 2597.50 -> 2603

Settlement – 2599.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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30th November



We had a pause yesterday, so on the lookout today to see if we can react to the move up - either with more upside or a decent move down. Volume is certainly there, so a great chance of follow - through.



Eyes on the large distribution below from 2623-2626.50 - so eyes on both prices.



We've held yesterdays value area as far, so eyes on that.

Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on 29th
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2634.25
Value - 2602.50 -> 2633

Daily Numbers

Range - 2619.75 -> 2634.25
Value - 2621.75 -> 2627.75
Globex - 2621.75 -> 2628.50

Settlement – 2625

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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1st December



More pushes up - real teflon market this. Perhaps like Bitcoin, it'll never move down again....



No use in the weekly profile in these circumstances.




Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on yesterday
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range
- mostly looking to jump on board again

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2609 -> 2657

Daily Numbers
Range - 2621.75 / 2634.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2641 -> 2654
Globex - 2637.25 -> 2645.75

Settlement – 2648

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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11th December

Back from a training course in Hong Kong...




Onto the March contract. Eyes on Bitcoin today. The way the CBOE contract is moving, we could easily limit up/down on there and who knows what that will do to the markets overall? From the S&P perspective, we are in the middle of what's been a wild, choppy area. It'll be most predictable at the top - so eyes on 2668.




Last week was really one large distribution. Not much to be gained from analyzing that much...




Market has marched up towards the highs - so path of least resistance is upside.

Plan
- No strong bias going into the day but preferring the upside
- Look for an opening trade as it is a little vague going in
- Looking for a reaction at 68
- Really a wait and see day, looking for clarity from intraday activity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2640.25 / 2646.50 -> 2665
Value - 2649 -> 2653.50
Globex - 2654 -> 2658.25

Settlement – 2653.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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Just updated the images! No idea where they came from!

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12th December



Market popped through the highs - so now looking for signs we'll roll over and revert to rangebound behavior for a while.



Not much from the weekly profile, other than we haven't popped the top yet - so on the lookout for a headfake!



A narrow day yesterday, we've stayed above the days range mostly. Watching the normal daily levels. Not really seeing an area where we'd see a lot of sellers, unless we can get below yesterdays range.

Plan
- low expectation until this "top" has been resolved (new push up/headfake/roll over)
- Looking for moves down to yesterdays levels as potential areas where buyers may come in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652.25 / 2654.50 -> 2664
Value - 2657-> 2661.50
Globex - 2663.50 -> 2667.75

Settlement – 2651.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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13th December



Still no resolution of the top - we have broken through the top and overnight we've pushed down. So today we see what the US traders thing of this push downside.



So far we can see the push down has been rejected.



The range was very low yesterday but volume was decent. So there's no lack of traders, just a lack of decisiveness.. I think all it'll take to make people decisive is a bit of a push down through the overnight low. Not sure if a push up through the highs will bring in volume but it's possible.

Plan
- low expectation day
- best chance of follow through is a break downside
- looking to trade the open aggresively as there might not be anything on later
- definitely a day where we have to wait & see after any initial push.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2673
Value - 2658.25 -> 2672.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2663.25 -> 2673
Value - 2668.25 -> 2672.75
Globex - 2659.25 -> 2669

Settlement – 2664.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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14th December



The high still not resolved, FOMC didn't shift the market much. Is this the end of volatility on the S&P 500 for the year?



We can see the upper distribution bottoms out around 2664 - so eyes on that.



We've settled into a tight range - so watching the extremes - 2660-2675.50. Really not seeing much at all.

We need something to give the market a shake - perhaps the employment numbers....

Plan
- Very low expectation day
- watching for an opening trade - but overnight range is so small so far that might not be on either
- No trades between 60 & 75.50 - look for action close to these extremes
- Exception will be a reaction at 64


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2662.25 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2659.25 / 2666.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2670 -> 2674.50
Globex - 2668 -> 2672.50

Settlement – 2666.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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 WilleeMac 
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Peter, sorry for being off topic but this is a must say

I am really digging the volume spike webinars

As usual, excellent job





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15th December



We started to turn down yesterday, so today looking for follow through. We did have a nice break and people did jump on board as expected when we got the break. Saying that - volume on the day was average. For now though I will bias short.



The lower distribution tops out at 2662, so eyes on that today.



We also had a late pullback last night to 2661.75, a tick below the level above, which has held overnight. So we go into today with a lot more clarity than yesterday.

Plan
- Short bias
- 62 a key level, above that I'm less inclined to short, so shorts below 62 and possibly longs above

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2651.75 -> 2675.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2654.75/ 2668 -> 2671.25 / 2673.50
Value - 2654.75 -> 2666.75
Globex - 2651.75 -> 2661

Settlement – 2653.25

Today only - 2662

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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No more prep till the New Year - taking a break and spending time with the family.

Have a great Christmas & New Year!

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Thanks for all your insight during the short time I have been a subscriber to your daily thread! It has been a learning experience and one I am most thankful for. I wish you and your family a peaceful and relaxing time over Christmas and New Year! Looking forward to following you in the New Year! Kind Regards and Many thanks Shaun.

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I find your tools and insight very useful, keep up the great work

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9th January



Volume a little on the low side so this month. I would have expected an increase yesterday. You would expect most traders back off vacation this week and volume to recover. So we may be seeing lack of interest overall at these prices.



Looking to last week - we don't have a great deal of trade anywhere from here down to 2698 - so if we do breakdown, I think we could be below 2700 pretty quickly.



So far overnight, yesterdays high has held. I'll be watching the regular day trader levels as we go into today.

Plan
- Short bias below yesterdays high
- caution short towards yesterdays low/value low (and might be a long opportunity)
- looking for 2700 as a target if we break the lows
- above yesterdays high, will take go with trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2647.50 -> 2743
Value - 2695.75 -> 2742.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2736.50 / 2737 -> 2748.50
Value - 2738 -> 2746.50
Globex - 2742.75 -> 2748.25

Settlement – 2746.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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10th Jan



No sign of a let up in the moves up yesterday. So we are in fresh territory still, so nothing historically to play off on the dailies.



I still see that we haven't traded much below, so we could easily fall back. As we trade more here, that can build a base for a move up. So we'll either range here for a move up or build a larger range after a move down. I don't think we'll just move up forever. So it's a matter of waiting to see where the range develops before we get any strong signals in my opinion.



We rejected new highs yesterday but volume overall is still low. I don't see that rejection as significant. What is more significant today hopefully is the fact we've pretty much had a hard ceiling at 2752 - yesterdays value low.

Plan
- Overall bias is up
- if 2752 holds off the open, then looking to join downside momentum
- there's no range evident so no "no-go" prices today, so if yesterdays VAL breaks - I'll be quite happy to play upside then look out for the VAH/High yesterday as targets
- Pretty much a wait & see day playing around yesterdays range. Fresh territory, not much to play off

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2760
Value - 2641.75 -> 2752.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2742.75 / 2748 -> 2760
Value - 2752 -> 2759.50
Globex - 2745 -> 2752

Settlement – 2752.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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11th Jan



As discussed - the more time we spend up here, the more chance we have of this being a base for the next move up. 37 seems to be holding well and we poked through it yesterday but couldn't gain any traction. So there's no sign of sellers taking advantage of the relative lack of trade from 2700-2737.



The profile is building into a very even distribution topping out around 74. Indicating a likelihood of more rangebound activity.



A day trader type day yesterday - we held the previous days Val, the overnight high and the weeks low. So expecting rangebound behavior today and on the lookout for break.

Plan
- look to play 37-54 range. Expect moves above to be headfakes
- other than that look @ the day trader levels - yesterday/overnight range, weekly range, yesterdays Value. Impossible to know which will hold, so look for a reaction away from a level to jump on board
- No hurry to trade today as we do have fairly decent ranges, so will wait for a good spot

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2760
Value - 2641.75 -> 2752.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2736.50 -> 2752
Value - 2744.25 -> 2750.25
Globex - 2747.75 -> 2754.50

Settlement – 2750.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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12th January




A pop up yesterday, fresh air above and looking to see if we can fall back and find support, range or if the market will continue up. Volume continues to be weak on these moves up but as per yesterdays prep, we did build volume for 3 days which gives us a potential base.




3760 is the top of the old range, so that's an obvious line in the sand for any moves up - it would also be a sizeable pullback.





So first looking at yesterdays high/value high which is also a few ticks below the overnight low. Looking for an initial move down off the open if we stay at these highs but that could just be a rebalance off the open, so not worth marrying any early shorts. Watching the usual day trader levels but other than that, it's all about where the volume comes in and what they decide to do. Overnight volume is much lower than the volume from 9:30 am EST onwards, so if those newer traders don't like these prices, they'll take us down.

Plan
- No bias
- Wait to see which way volume takes us OR if everyone stands back in 'wait & see' mode
- very wary of initial moves down

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2636.50 -> 2776.75
Value - 2739.75 -> 2754.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2747.75 / 2752.75 -> 2768.50
Value - 2757 -> 2766
Globex - 2766.75 -> 2776.75

Settlement – 2769.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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15th January



Up, up and awaaay. Fresh air up here, so not a lot to do other than look behind us for clues of what might happen if we do fall a bit.



2760 below is the top of the lower distribution. There's not much trade between there and where we are now, so a slide down is theoretically easy until we build a base for a move up - like we did last week.



The right most session here is the overnight session. Go 2 sessions back and you see Thursday night/Friday morning. You can see Friday day time (US) was pretty flat. So most progression up is overnight. The day session traders seem to be accepting the moves though. Thursday was the same deal.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- Other than that, it's pretty open - so it's mostly a wait & see day. I find it hard to be convinced about these high prices but I don't want to sell against momentum!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2788.75
Value - 2739.00 -> 2757.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2752.75 -> 2766.75
Value - 2767.25 -> 2773.25
Globex - 2770 -> 2788.75

Settlement – 2792

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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16th January



Not much action yesterday, so we are in the same place from an analysis perspective.



2760 below is the top of the lower distribution. There's not much trade between there and where we are now, so a slide down is theoretically easy until we build a base for a move up - like we did last week.



As we go into today, I'll be mostly watching this upper range and how we trade around it 2789.75 -> 2798.25. We didn't build volume at these new prices, so if we can break to the downside, we could see a nice run down.


Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- Other than that, it's pretty open - so it's mostly a wait & see day. I find it hard to be convinced about these high prices but I don't want to sell against momentum!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2788.75
Value - 2739.00 -> 2757.75

Daily Numbers
Holiday yesterday....
Globex - 2792 -> 2798.25

Settlement – Holiday yesterday

Today only - 2789.75 -> 2798.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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17 Jan



A bit of a wild day yesterday - we may new all time highs overnight & again in the day session but then dropped back through 2770.



Not much on the weekly profile yet to get excited about - I would be wary above 2790 that we may range from there to about 96 where that bulge in the profile is.



Yesterday was a big day but in the grand scheme of things, the drop doesn't even count as a pullback. So be on the lookout for more downside, I think the market is ready for it. I'd look out at 60 below but if we get through that I'd be looking for 2700's. There really isn't much traded below us.

This doesn't mean it will go down - just that if we get some downside momentum, I think we can have a good run south.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- A close eye on yesterdays low because I think we have great potential downside if we can break it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2808.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2808.50
Globex - 2779 -> 2786.50

Settlement –2782.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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  #1151 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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DionysusToast View Post
17 Jan



A bit of a wild day yesterday - we may new all time highs overnight & again in the day session but then dropped back through 2770.



Not much on the weekly profile yet to get excited about - I would be wary above 2790 that we may range from there to about 96 where that bulge in the profile is.



Yesterday was a big day but in the grand scheme of things, the drop doesn't even count as a pullback. So be on the lookout for more downside, I think the market is ready for it. I'd look out at 60 below but if we get through that I'd be looking for 2700's. There really isn't much traded below us.

This doesn't mean it will go down - just that if we get some downside momentum, I think we can have a good run south.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- A close eye on yesterdays low because I think we have great potential downside if we can break it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2808.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2808.50
Globex - 2779 -> 2786.50

Settlement –2782.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

Nice analysis as always Peter. We did have a good attempt on the downside in the first 30 minutes, did not carry through, but several nice short scalps.

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18th January



Well - a rebound yesterday - we saw early sellers but they couldn't get any traction and the overnight low held.



40 point range so far, a large distribution in the middle but seeing as that didn't stop us yesterday or today, so I doubt it's relevant.



Overnight is honoring the new highs from yesterday. I see no bias here at all.

Plan
- No Bias but decent expectation of range
- Look for an early trade
- After that watch the "day trader" levels for a reaction
- Look for continuation plays - after a hold or break of a level. Playing anywhere in the weeks range looks OK

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2769.25 -> 2809.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2807.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2779 / 2780.50 -> 2809.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2802
Globex - 2800.75 -> 2808

Settlement –2803.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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19th January



An up and down week. Moving but no obvious direction.



There is a bulge in the profile this week but as per yesterdays prep - we had 2 days where it ran right over that, so I am not taking any notice of it today.



On a daily basis, we've been honoring levels, so moves away from levels have been doing well.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade off the open
- After that, looking for a move away from a level. Prior highs have been working well this week
- If we build a tight range, will look to trade extremes
- so very much a day to let it unfold and not expect too many clues from the history

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2809.50
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2793/75 -> 2807.75 /2808
Value - 2796. 75 -> 2803.25
Globex - 2792 -> 2801

Settlement –2796.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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22nd January



The markets still Trumping upwards. Volatile though, still waiting for it to settle into a range before we get any medium term predictability.



A big distribution last week but remember - we ran over it twice as if it wasn't there - so normally, I'd expect this to slow down any moves downside but now I'm not really sure. Answers on a postcard please.



The tail end of last week we ranged from 92-12. So that's what I have my eye on going in. We held Fridays VAL so far overnight, so watching the day trader levels too.

Plan
- No bias
- will look for an opening trade, after that playing it by ear, looking for reactions off the usual levels & any high volume areas that develop

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2812.75
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806

Daily Numbers
Range - 2791.75 / 2799.50 -> 2812.75
Value - 2802 -> 2808
Globex - 2802 -> 2810.50

Settlement –2811.50


Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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23rd January



Nice push up yesterday. So now we are looking at that sideways action from last week to hold on any retraces (not that we have retraces any more!)



The high of last weeks distribution is around 2808. That seems a long way down but not much has traded between here & there so if there is any selling pressure, it should not be a problem to go that low.



A big move up yesterday and that has continued so far overnight. You can see to the left the 'base' we built. What is happening now is not normal, the market will revert to a range but there is no point fighting it or trying to predict when it will do so.

Plan
- Still no real bias - but obviously I'm not going to short any moves up.
- Day trader levels still working well - so looking for momentum away from any level to jump on board
- Fresh air above so no levels there, an eye on the downside - we could whip back and retrace yesterdays range similar to the big days last week
- Basically a reactive day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2812.75
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806

Daily Numbers
Range - 2802 / 2809.25 -> 2835.50
Value - 2817.50 -> 2828
Globex - 2834 -> 2840.50

Settlement –2835.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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29th January

Sorry for the gap in preps - had platform issues...



It's worth zooming out to see a few years data. As you can see this move up is exceptional. Not saying you should fight it but it's worth having a few pennies aside for trading a correction - or just being aware of the possibility so you don't get stuck like a deer in headlights if it does start to correct.




Once again we see a large distribution below us that 'could' act as support but of late, we've not been pulling back to support, so it's somewhat moot!



You can see the high of this range more clearly here - so around 2850-2855 is where we might expect to target if we fall back

Plan
- No bias - but obviously market likes going up
- looking for continuation moves if we break the overnight los as not much traded down to 50
- other than that - fresh air above, so looking at the daytradr levels but looking forward to just playing what unfolds at these new levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2802 -> 2873.25
Value - 2832.75 -> 2851.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2841 / 2846.50 -> 2873.25
Value - 2846.75 -> 2861.75
Globex - 2868.50 -> 2878.50

Settlement –2874.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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30th January



Well - that looks almost like a pullback. Still - most of it is overnight trade, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Ideal scenario would be that we start marking out a range we can trade between. That hasn't happened yet.

The downside has good potential after this move up. Lots of new longs that might bail.



We can see the low of last weeks big distribution has held - so eyes on that range today.



A nice run down overnight, so on the lookout for volatility. Lots of daytradr levels around us, but it's a break of the overnight low I'd really like to see.

Trouble is - this has been a market that refuses to stay down - so of course looking for volatility in both directions. We could easily snap back and take back the losses.

Plan
- no bias
- looking for trades off the regular levels
- will jump on volatility from anywhere really - but with a tight stop and ready to exit on any that lose momentum
- prize trade would be shorts coming in below the overnight low


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2802 -> 2873.25
Value - 2832.75 -> 2851.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2851.50 -> 2871.25 / 2878.50
Value - 2858 -> 2866.50
Globex - 2831 -> 2858

Settlement –2853.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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31st January



We continued the small pullback yesterday. Volatility made it tough in the morning. 2 ways you can handle this in my opinion - wider stops or repeated attempts at joining momentum. The latter involves jumping on momentum but getting out if it ticks back - so using the momentum to get you an initial move you way but then bailing if you get no follow through.

I imagine it was a rough day for many and standing aside when it gets wild like that - sweeping 4-5 ticks at a time, is definitely a smart thing to do.



Weekly profile wise - it's elongated, which generally speaking doesn't help us much.



Overnight, we've moved around yesterdays range, so nothing new. As we go into today, we are looking for signs of volatility again to set the tone. We could move up 30 points as easily as down 30 points.

Plan
- Careful with the early trade today
- looking out for a run on a break of yesterdays low
- other than that - playing it by ear, eyes on volatility and trying to jump on any sustained moves
- Hold onto your hat

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2818.50 -> 2873.25
Value - Too elongated - n/a

Daily Numbers
Range - 2818.50 -> 2839.50 / 2858
Value - 2858 -> 2866.50
Globex - 2821.50 -> 2839.50

Settlement –2824.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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1st Feb



I put in a new line at 2810 - it was a pause point previously and now we've held there. Not saying the market will hold but a lot of people will be watching that level. If we get below 2810, look out for acceleration down.



We can see a range starting to form - so look out as we get towards 2820 and 2845. To me - looks like it's not worth playing in the middle unless it's an opening trade.



Same story here. Just a couple of days at the low of the push down

Plan
- Early trade on today
- After the opening pushes - avoid trades between 2820 & 2840 - quite happy to trade moves away from them in either direction
- looking for acceleration below 2810


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2813 -> 2878.50
Value - 2845.50 -> 2816.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2813 -> 2839.75
Value - 2822.25 -> 2835.25
Globex - 2826-> 2837.25

Settlement –2825.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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2nd Feb



We held 2810 yesterday. As per yesterdays prep, I am looking for acceleration down if this breaks. Seems like yesterday confirmed people have their eye on it.



The major distribution from this week grew, so I see that now as around 2816-2840. Expecting chop between those prices.



Yesterday we just rotated around the range, so no new information other than we like trading here at the moment.

Overall action yesterday was pretty bad. Market was whipping around, sweeping 4-5 prices at a time with correlation between Dow, Nasdaq & S&P broken down. It's a tough market to play.

Plan
- Look for an early trade off the open
- After that no trading between 16 & 40 (obviously with a little flexibility)
- Look to fade the range
- If we break 10 to the downside, watch for volume increases and join any push down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2809.50 -> 2878.50
Value - 2815 -> 2840

Daily Numbers
Range - 2809.50 / 2812.50 -> 2836.75
Value - 2816.50-> 2829
Globex - 2811.75 -> 2831

Settlement –2822.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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5th Feb



A nice push down on Friday we broke the 2810 level overnight, then pushed up towards it - couldn't get there and then sellers really piled in.

So as with any big day like that, it's really open - we could snap back up, push down some more or go sideways. For me, specific price levels aren't as important as just trying to keep on the right side and get on board any move as it may be a big one, whichever way it breaks.



No weekly profile today - it's a bit pointless after that run down on Friday.

Plan
- Morning trade on only if we don't go really volatile overnight
- Pretty much a wait & see day - jumping on any volatility that develops
- Eyes on 2810


Daily Numbers
Range - 275875 -> 2807.75 / 2831
Value - 2771.75 -> 2807.50
Globex - 2733 -> 2757

Settlement –2756.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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5th Feb



A nice push down on Friday we broke the 2810 level overnight, then pushed up towards it - couldn't get there and then sellers really piled in.

So as with any big day like that, it's really open - we could snap back up, push down some more or go sideways. For me, specific price levels aren't as important as just trying to keep on the right side and get on board any move as it may be a big one, whichever way it breaks.



No weekly profile today - it's a bit pointless after that run down on Friday.

Plan
- Morning trade on only if we don't go really volatile overnight
- Pretty much a wait & see day - jumping on any volatility that develops
- Eyes on 2810


Daily Numbers
Range - 275875 -> 2807.75 / 2831
Value - 2771.75 -> 2807.50
Globex - 2733 -> 2757

Settlement –2756.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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6th February



Big day yesterday, as we discussed on 29th Jan - the move up was exceptional. It's not a great shock that the reaction was exceptional.

Even in the bigger scheme of things - that was a big drop.



So the plan for the day is simple. There's not much benefit in having a grand plan. We've had ETFs wiped out, the media is having a field day (well, they need some excitement) - and we are still at very high levels.

We could as easily snap back up as go down another few hundred points. Obviously watch out for limit up/down.

No need for levels, no point guessing where any move will end. It's a market that needs to be played differently - wider stops, scaling in. If you play it at all. I'll watch but not in a hurry to engage.

Be careful.

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7th February



Liquidity was quite absent on the S&P yesterday - most of the time the depth being below 100 at each level.

This has continued overnight and the range is already over 40 points.

As such, the S&P is going to continue to behave exceptionally. So it's effectively a different market. We are seeing the market sweep 5-6 levels in an instant, which is not normal behavior.

In effect - the S&P is trading more like the DAX or Nasdaq does. If I wanted to trade those conditions, I wouldn't be trading S&P!

My take on this - stand to one side until the liquidity returns - that means depth in the 4-500 range on average.

So for me - I still think it's not worth the risk of trading today.

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8th February



Market is calming down, obviously but it's still very thin.

Right now market depth is very thin:



Yesterday it did get up to 1-200 per level but was variable. So I'm keeping my eye on it today but still think it's too soon to trade the ES the way I do.

If the liquidity comes back, I'll look to take some momentum trades but if not, I'll wait it out. Crude has been ok in terms of liquidity, so might be a wiser play again today.

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9th Feb

Markets looked like they were slowing down on Wednesday but there's still a log of whipping around going on.



Had dinner last night with Alex, the CEO of AXIA who mentioned they were loving these conditions - but then I guess they do love other things I stay away from like news events.

Anyway - still waiting for a return to normality before I start trading this. Glad that some are enjoying it!

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12th Feb




Still very volatile, with over a 100 point range on Fridays day session. Overnight it's still volatile but I'm going to re-engage with the market today.

No levels going in, as it's so volatile there's no point trying to guess where it'll move.

I'll be looking to play momentum moves, possibly scaling in. As I've basically stayed away from this market to now, I don't have a feel for it - so the scaling in is just a possibility and it'll really depend on how the first attempts at momentum plays go.

I have a feeling (but a guess), that it might just be easier to jump on bounces for 7-8 ticks and get out of the way. So the object of today's session is to feel out these conditions and see if I can find away to play them.

Hopefully tomorrow, I can share something of use for this market.

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13th Feb



The Market does appear to be calming down. Only 50 point range yesterday but liquidity still very low and we are still seeing the market being swept 4-5 levels in an instant at times.

I had some fun with it last night, waiting for small ranges to form, then bracketing them with orders and scalping out small breaks, just getting swept in with the volatility.

A lot of effort though and not a particularly effective way to trade, so tonight I will do the opposite, look for short term exhaustion in counter moves and try to jump on board.

Overall, I'm still waiting for the market to return to normal and to take some low risk opportunities looking to exploit the volatility.

No levels still - it's far too volatile to attempt to guess where the market may react.

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14th Feb



Market is calming down and volume was below 2 million yesterday. So let's be ready for another switch in momentum/liquidity.



And we now seem to have a little structure coming back. We can see that yesterday, we pushed through the overnight low before an attempt at the prior days high. We traded back and forth at the top there from around 2559 to 2666. That area has held so far overnight.

So eyes on the market depth. It was mostly below 200 yesterday and inside levels below 100. So looking for us to get back to 3-400s

Plan
- if the inside 3 levels are still below 100, look to play short term bounces with the short term trend
- if we get better liquidity, look for plays off the volume profile, looking for the sort of structure we'd normally see for short term trend continuation

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15th February



Interesting day yesterday - it was plodding along till the 8:30 announcements and then the market volatility spiked massively. The actual 9:30 open was calm in comparison. The numbers weren't terrible but this market is still very nervous.



The volatility increase put an end to the idea we were calming down. 60 points in the day session and almost 80 points range including overnight. Volume around 2 million though, so participation didn't go back to peak levels.



With the increase in volatility, it's back to just playing the volatility and not trying too hard guessing where traders might react. So right now - it's back to yesterdays "Plan A: look to play short term bounces with the short term trend".

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16th February



Still volatile - but with volume stabilizing at just below 2M.

This is still not the ES that really wants to respect levels. Still a market that is nervous.

So still playing short term bounces, with the short term direction. Confirmed with Nasdaq and Dow.

Sorry there's not much more to add - but I think levels are out the window while this market is so volatile.

We have seen more depth in the book - but we are still seeing sweeps 5-6 ticks at a time and very few prints as we move through prices. So careful out there!

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19th Feb

Markets closed for Presidents day - enjoy the break!

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20th Feb



Once again, the market appears to have settled down. But we are looking at a holiday day and an overnight session.

Range overnight at the time of writing is just 12.5 points and market depth is below 50 on the inner 3-4 levels and below 200 above that. So we look set for another volatile day. Eyes on the depth as we get towards 9am EST.



We do potentially have a range there 2720-2750. For today - expectations are we still wont be honoring levels as the market will be illiquid and nervous. There's no news events today, so the best we can hope for is an injection of some much needed boredom, so that we can have a more stable market.

For now - if we get the volatility, will still be trying to take advantage of some momentum on one side and trying to time an entry off counter-move traders running out of steam.

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21st Feb



The market range has reduced but the environment for trading is still not where S&P traders like it.

Yesterday at one point, we swept 10 prices in less than 5 seconds. No news event, no warning. Those sweeps the rest of the day were evident but that was the biggest I saw.

It seems from a brokerage perspective - this is turning into a 'memorable' event - up there with Brexit. Brokers I've spoken to have had some traders lose more than their account balance but so far, I haven't heard of any broker getting wiped out by traders not paying.

I do think it's calming down. For the sweeps, it's hard to tell if it's liquidity providers getting out of the way a lot of the time but the 10 tick sweep yesterday was at least 3000 contracts.

Interesting times but I'm going to be on the lookout for those sweeps before engaging today.

The good thing about the sweeps, is we do get a good bounce after but to capitalize on that, you really have to be watching like a hawk.

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DionysusToast View Post
21st Feb
Yesterday at one point, we swept 10 prices in less than 5 seconds. No news event, no warning. Those sweeps the rest of the day were evident but that was the biggest I saw.

Hi Pete, do you remember around what time that sweep occured?

Sherlock Holmes

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Yup, saw that one too, and a few others...stay frosty



DionysusToast View Post
21st Feb



The market range has reduced but the environment for trading is still not where S&P traders like it.

Yesterday at one point, we swept 10 prices in less than 5 seconds. No news event, no warning. Those sweeps the rest of the day were evident but that was the biggest I saw.

It seems from a brokerage perspective - this is turning into a 'memorable' event - up there with Brexit. Brokers I've spoken to have had some traders lose more than their account balance but so far, I haven't heard of any broker getting wiped out by traders not paying.

I do think it's calming down. For the sweeps, it's hard to tell if it's liquidity providers getting out of the way a lot of the time but the 10 tick sweep yesterday was at least 3000 contracts.

Interesting times but I'm going to be on the lookout for those sweeps before engaging today.

The good thing about the sweeps, is we do get a good bounce after but to capitalize on that, you really have to be watching like a hawk.


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22nd Feb



Market has much more depth 200-300 a level heading into the open. It was an FOMC day, so while we did see a 50 point range, it was mostly after the FOMC announcement and there wasn't significant volume on the day.

As of typing we are back to less than 100 at each level. So I'm back to waiting this AM to see if the depth comes back and if not, if we are clear of that wild sweeping behavior.

All things being well, if we have an orderly market, we'll be able to play some momentum moves.

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Psy24X View Post
Hi Pete, do you remember around what time that sweep occured?

Sherlock Holmes

I think it was 9:41 or 10:41 - can't remember which now!

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23rd Feb

Hopefully, the last of the 'shorter' preps.



The market has calmed down a little but it's not so much the daily range but the fact that a lot of the market depth is back.

We also saw a bunch of "normal" things happening in the market yesterday - such as headfaking through the old high, traders getting trapped and the market being driven back through them - all over a range of a few ticks (as opposed to sliding 20 or so).



Two events stood out yesterday - "A" - a high volume spike which was a short term reversal point - indicating short term speculators playing and "B" - a very typical headfake up through an old level and then a push down - usually that's to shake people into and then out of positions...

Doesn't mean much on the history chart but as this was playing out, you could see it was returning back to normality.

In my opinion, if these plays are back on - it means we are returning to normality somewhat. As such, it's back to regular overnight prep starting Monday.

Fingers crossed all hell doesn't break loose in the meantime!

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26th Feb

'

Going on the presumption that markets are 'somewhat' back to normal (see here: https://www.jigsawtrading.com/2018/02/26/volatility-return-normal/). Overnoght we've broken through the high of last week and held above it, so will be using that as a line in the sand today.



A very wide range last week, with the main distrubution topping out around 2734.2 (weekly VAL). Eyes on that if we move down.



Zooming in, we can see we tested last weeks close and stayed above it. No sign of weakness yet.

Plan
- look for an early trade - volume into the open
- after that, look for continuation up if we stay above Fridays high
- shorts below Fridays high with a target of 2736
- Easy does it though.... look for good prices and be wary of any major sweeps/volatility disappearing


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2682 -> 2847.75
Value - 2709.25 -> 2734.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2710 / 2712.75 -> 2747.50
Value - 2714.25 -> 2729.75
Globex - 2742.50 -> 2761.50

Settlement –2748.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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28th Feb

Excuse lack of prep yesterday - my baby had a mishap...



Some dude in his bosses pick up with "extra wide" wheels on it decided to overtake on the inside and turn in before he'd gone past me.... so that's a front bumper, rear bumper, trunk door this has had since I had it & now a new passenger side door... Bangkok driving... think Mad Max but without driving licenses...



Volume was higher yesterday and we had a 50 point range. I wasn't watching the market, so I can't say much about the sweeps - but I will be on the lookout today.



An elongated profile, which effectively tells us not much - or rather there's no areas this week that we've liked to trade around.



A big down day but really just retracing the Sunday/Monday move. So as usual after a big down day, be prepared for a snap back up. If we manage to push down again, I think we could get to 2680 very quickly.

Plan
- eyes on liquidity/volatility again
- looking for breaks of the overnight low, if so - looking to play a momentum move - potential to get to 2680.
- Upside, also looking to see what happens above the overnight high
- apart from that, I don't have any levels of interest - so a wait & see day.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2638.50 -> 2789.75
Value - 2753 -> 2785.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2743.50 -> 2789.75
Value - 2756 -> 2778.50
Globex - 2738.50 -> 2754.75

Settlement –2747.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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1st March



Another wild day. As per yesterday, we were looking for breaks of the overnight range. The break above didn't have much follow through. On the first push down to the overnight low, we got a healthy 20 point pop to the upside and on the next attempt, the market broke down and we had a fast run to the downside



Not reading too much into this - we can see not much has tread between 22 and 38, so cautious (or optimistic) if 22 breaks to the upside.



You can see the nice run when the overnight low broke. Going into today - if you look at the first image above you can see that some people will be looking at this market as channeling up. So there's good reason to expect participation from speculators if that is confirmed or broken. Looking left it's chop, so we might be marking out a range overall.

Plan
- No clear direction or bias
- Good arguments for longs and shorts
- Will let the action develop and wait for some momentum to jump on
- We have been settling into early ranges and breaking out later in the day - so bear that in mind

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2703 -> 2789.74
Value - 2742 -> 2780.50


Daily Numbers

Range - 2712.50 -> 2762
Value - 2740.50 -> 2761
Globex - 2703-> 2722.50

Settlement –2714.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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2nd March



Not sure if you know the movie "Perfect Storm". In it - 2 handsome and buff sailors take their crew out fishing where no man should sail. They get caught in a terrible storm. At the end, the sun rises and their boat reaches flat waters - then suddenly the storm returns and of course, they all die (in reverse order of handsomeness).

Anyway - it reminds me of this market. For 4-5 days there the waters calmed down but it looks like the storm is back.

So we have to stop trading the market like a game of chess and start trading it like whack-a-mole again.

So a wait & see day. Yesterday it was sweeping 7-8 ticks at a time. There is opportunity for a snap-back after the sweeps - so watch that. Otherwise, it's looking to try and take advantage of momentum that forms.

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6th March



Still highly volatile so, still in a "prep off" scenario. We are in the middle of the range now and we do seem to like trading over this area many times.

In addition to this, we have been churning around a volume area early on. Not every day but enough for it to be worth on the lookout for....

Plan
- look for ranges to form (on the volume profile) after the opening moves. Look to fade the extremes.
- watch the breaks for headfakes and for more ranges to form after the break

Thinking is that if this continues, we do have opportunity at the extremes of those short term ranges. I'll try to get some screenshots for tomorrow based on today's ranges that form - if the behavior persists.

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7th March



A gap down today and into the rollover tomorrow. Range wasn't huge yesterday. There's a lot of chop to the left, so it's hard to judge direction.



Yesterday, we mentioned the ranges that have been forming. Even though we've had large overall daily , we've had a tendency to get stuck in smaller ranges close to the open and rotate around them for a while.

This screen shot is a good example of that. You can see the purple range (bulge) on the volume profile & above that, a smaller green. We opened up above, rotated a little then dropped down to 19.75. On the way up, from a chart perspective then 27.25 isn't that significant. From an intraday profile perspective it is.

So this bulge in the profile is an area we often rotate around. It's been doing it a lot in the past few days. As positions build there, that gives us the energy to generate the larger move later in the day when it breaks.

You don't want to be fading the extreme on the 7th hit in my opinion but early on it's a good spot and you find out you are right or wrong fairly early on.

Anyway - this seems to be in play right now (as mentioned in yesterdays prep), so keep your eyes out for it.

That's my plan for today. Then tomorrow the roll and a day off...

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8th March



This is interesting. Market is coiling into a relatively small range. We are also rolling over today.

From an order flow perspective the rollover is problematic. A lot of trades are executing that are non-directional - just closing out long term positions on one contract and opening them on another. So you might see a lot of selling at a price and the market moves up - you think "those sellers are stuck" - but they aren't - they are long in June!

Still - there can be directional, fairly easy to read days on the roll, so you have to just watch it.

The other issue with the roll - it tends to take longer nowadays, used to be that by Thursday afternoon all the volume would be in the new contract but it can take a few days for that to happen now. The roll date isn't a 'must do' date.

Then there's this range narrowing - with the volatility we've had of late, I'd say there's a good chance of a violent break from this decreasing range at some point.

So all in all, a market that may be a little harder to read today with a good chance of taking people out when this tightening range breaks.

Definitely a day to be careful or have the day off.

Plan
- Look for ranges to fade but hyper aware of any action that looks like a break
- If we do see a high volume one-way move, it's got a good chance of being extended, so ready to scale in

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