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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,394 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old September 24th, 2013, 09:09 AM   #111 (permalink)
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24th September

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Yesterday we were looking to see if the days action followed the lower or higher distribution from last week and we definitely chose the bottom and took a look down almost to the 1688 level. We still have that area in play not and yesterdays value high/low ended up marking out the approximate value area for the lower distribution marked out yesterday.

That means that the 1688 level is a stronger line in the sand and that we might see some momentum if we break it. Conversely if we stay in this area it'll probably be quite slow.

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We also have an unfilled gap below us, so whilst we have stalled short of the 1688.50 level, the gap fill only takes us down to 84, and I figure it will do that rapidly if 88 breaks. Below that we have not much till 71.50 the way I look at things. On the other hand, if we move up from here, we could start ranging between 1690->1730 for a few weeks which would be nice.

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Not much to say from the daily profile. The overnight range is mostly below the close, below yesterdays value but within yesterdays range. So nothing has changed and that could mean a slow day. As we are mostly short overnight AND below value, look for an initial move up.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1687.75 -> 1726.75
Value lower distribution 1688 -> 1701.75 (approx)
Value upper distriution 1713.24 -> 1724
S1 - 1696. R1 - 1714

Daily Numbers
Range 1689.50 -> 1702.25(pit)/1707.50 Globex
Value 1693 -> 1697.50
Globex 1689.50 -> 1694

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1704 (single), 1705, 1712.75

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Old September 25th, 2013, 09:33 AM   #112 (permalink)
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25th September

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Same situation as yesterday. We are still in the lower distribution from last week and we still have a gap to fill. Monday and Tuesday pit sessions were almost the same range and Tuesday and todays Globex are about the same range too.

We do seem to be attracted to the this gap but breaking into it doesn't seem to be much of an event even though it is a line in the sand. If we keep ticking through it to the downside, we'll fill it in small increments. For now, it is acting as resistance.

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Overnight inventory is below yesterdays close and below yesterdays value so an adjustment up off the open is probable. We have news at 10:00am with new home sales, so it may be sluggish going into that.

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This weeks profile shows us in a fairly tight range but it's not been too bad intraday. We need to break 1702 to the upside or make a real break into the gap for an accelerated move in my opinion. In this area it'll be fairly slow but we are still seeing decent intraday range. I'll be looking to fade the extremes today if the news doesn't speed things up a bit.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 1687.75 -> 1707.50
Value - 1689.2 -> 1698.75
S1 - 1696. R1 - 1714

Daily Numbers
Range 1687.50 -> 1701
Value 1692.50 -> 1700
Globex 1687.25 -> 1693.50

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75, 1726.75

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Old September 26th, 2013, 05:44 AM   #113 (permalink)
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26th September

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The gap filled with somewhat of a fizzle. Certainly there was no real acceleration into the gap, it just sort of worked it's way down through it one nudge at a time.

Also, as a trader friend (thanks Ron) mentioned today, it took 5 days to take back the gains of just 2 days.

So today, I think we have to keep an eye on the upside. We are at a line in the sand and there's not much below us till 71.50 (although we have previously churned between here and there, so that won't be pretty action). We may well be done and on the way back up to the highs. That would leave us with a 40+ point range to rotate around 1684 - 1727.

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To counter the prospect of upside from here, value has been working downwards over the past 5 days. As of writing (4:30am EST), Globex has stayed in yesterdays range which is in line with the past few days. It may be we need to test 84 for more upside and possibly break it a point or two to see if sellers are there but it could be that we continue to hold yesterdays value low and move up from there.

I'm not seeing much worth noting on the other charts.

So for me, 1684 is a line in the sand. If we break it significantly I see 71.50 as the target. If not, the I think there's a case for a move back up to 1726 over the coming week. For that, we really need to see us trading above a prior days value area which means getting and staying above 1691 today.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1684.50 -> 1707.50
Value - 1686.50 -> 1696
S1 - 1696. R1 - 1714

Daily Numbers
Range 1684.50 -> 1695
Value 1686-> 1691
Globex 1686.25 -> 1693.25(4:30 AM EST)

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75, 1726.75

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Old September 27th, 2013, 08:26 AM   #114 (permalink)
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27th September

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As we opened yesterday, I thought we were set to move higher and was looking for us to move through and stay above 91. To the downside I was looking at a break of 94. We did get the move up through 91 but we just couldn't hold it. We had a fairly rapid turn down on the back of some comments from Obama & others. Still - the weekly value area shrank yesterday.

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We can clearly see where we have spent most of this week with value being 1686.75 -> 1695.25.

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We can also see that on the daily profiles that we are just sitting in the range. Saying that, the action has been fairly nice for the first few swings at least each day this week. Today again, I'll be looking for a breakout either side with 1692.5 being the area I want to see hold for an upside move and the 84.50 for downside.

Not much else to say. It is Friday, news is relatively light, so I'm not expecting much other than what we did for the past few days.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1684.50 -> 1707.50
Value - 1686.75 -> 1694.75
S1 - 1696. R1 - 1714

Daily Numbers
Range 1685.75 -> 1697.50
Value 1687.25-> 1692.75
Globex 1684.50-> 1695.50

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75, 1726.75

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Old September 30th, 2013, 08:38 AM   #115 (permalink)
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30th September

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So a gap down on the globex open. More than likely caused by the imminent US govt shutdown. The "fiscal cliff" didn't end up being the end of the world and I guess this won't be either.

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Where we stopped in the Globex session so far is 3 ticks below our line in the sand @ 71.50. It's a line in the sand because of the way we rapidly moved through the 1660-1671.50 area both upside and downside, so we need to be on the alert there. For sure, I would be very careful about holding along if we move down any further.

It is the last day of the month today. We opened September at 1633.75 on the continuous contract and the low is 1624.75, so we are still up. As we've gapped down in Globex, there is a good chance of a move up off the open just to shake out these shorts. This could turn into a larger move up if "window dressing" for the month end is really on the table. So we have good potential both sides here.

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This sticking point upside is potentially the value area 1685.25 and upwards as a lot of trading occured in that area last week.

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Daily profile doesn't show much more although the low and value low are hurdles to any move up.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1680 -> 1707.50
Value 1685.25 -> 1695.25
S1 - 1677, R1 - 1699.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1680 -> 1687 (pit)/1695.50 (globex)
Value 1682.50 -> 1686
Globex 1670.75 -> 1676.25

Other : 1660.25, 1667.25, 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75, 1726.75

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Old October 1st, 2013, 08:22 AM   #116 (permalink)
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1st October

No trading today. The US Govt shutdown has pretty much been shrugged off by the markets so far.

So whilst the news is already in, the solution isn't. There will be a lot of finger pointing today but also there will be rumors of solutions as well as solutions themselves and I'd prefer not to be in the market when these hit the news.

It may well just be a regular trading day but I'm not taking the risk today.

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Old October 2nd, 2013, 07:49 AM   #117 (permalink)
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2nd October

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Well - market is certainly showing a decisive move on the back of the shutdown. Up... no.. errr down.

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It is only 6:30AM EST right now but this is a picture you don't see that often - a 17 point range in yesterdays day session and we came to 1 tick short of the high and the low in the following Globex session. Of course, we still have 3 hours to break through that Globex range. Non farm employment at 8:15 or the ECB Press conference at 8:30 could do that.

Off the open, I'll be looking to see how these extremes act again, looking for more rotation than a decisive move away from this range. Of course, we have high news risk as solutions/rumors come out of how the shutdown will be un-shutdown.

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In terms of levels, we did take a peek down to the 1666.75, just past our 1667.25 level and people will be watching for that to break as it's the weeks low.

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We have value for the week as 1671.75 to 1682.75 and we are currently in the middle of that.

I'm don't really have much of an opinion today - I'll just watch the obvious levels and the value area from yesterday and the week so far. Once again I have no great urge to trade this market and I think the safest bet is to jump on momentum and scale some off quickly if possible.

If the depth gets too low - sub 500's at the first 2-3 levels, I will not trade.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1666.75 -> 1692.25
Value 1671.75 -> 1682.75
S1 - 1677, R1 - 1699.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1675.25 -> 1692.25
Value 1682.75 -> 1689.75
Globex 1675.50 -> 1688.00

Other : 1660.25, 1667.25, 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75, 1726.75

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Old October 3rd, 2013, 06:21 AM   #118 (permalink)
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3rd October

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Yesterday stayed within the weeks range and we do seem to be getting into a narrower range when viewed from this perspective.

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Yesterday we managed to push 2 points below the prior days range before turning back up into Tuesdays valuea area where we stayed pretty much for the rest of the day.

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This is about as 'perfect' as a profile can get in terms of distribution.

None of this gives us many clues as to which way we'll break. It's rangebound but 14 points range yesterday is a decent range, so it's not as if this range isn't tradable.

We still have the shutdown giving us increased news risk and we have unemployment claims at 8:30 AM EST and Non Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am.

So - I'm looking at the same situation as yesterday in that I don't have much of an opinion. I'll just watch the obvious levels and the value area from yesterday and the week so far. I'll try to lay-off the news risk by trading into momentum, not necessarily getting as good a price but trying to get in when it's moving to scale some off quickly and reduce the risk.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1666.75 -> 1692.25
Value 1673.25 -> 1683.75
S1 - 1677, R1 - 1699.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1673.00 -> 1687.50 (pit)/1692 (globex)
Value 1679.25-> 1687.25
Globex 1673.50 -> 1683.75

Other : 1660.25, 1667.25, 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75, 1726.75

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Old October 4th, 2013, 07:20 AM   #119 (permalink)
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4th October

No news - seeing as the government is shut down!

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Yesterday was interesting, we rotated around 2 HVNs we created in Globex and then Obama spoke and the market put in a good run downward and put in a 21.5 point range. We had news risk and then we had the news. Still, we only extended the weeks range by 3 points.

My first thoughts are that after this push down, we could well make it all back today with a push up. The next long term level downwards for me is 1660.25 and 1642 below that.

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The overnight Globex session is predominantly long but it's only 6am. We have traded mostly within yesterdays value area and if we do have an adjustment down off the open, I'll be looking for buyers to step in at the value low 1668.50, although with the close at 1669.50, we might not get that far down. Market profile traders will be looking at the Globex low as having poor structure in need of revisit & repair.

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The weekly profile shows us still very much in balance and whilst a push down again is possible, I favour more balanced behavior which means moving up to the value high for the week at 1681.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1663.25 -> 1692.25
Value 1669.75 -> 1681.75
S1 - 1677, R1 - 1699.25

Daily Numbers
Range 1663.25 -> 1684.75
Value 1668.59 -> 1676.50
Globex 1667.50 > 1674.25 (6am EST)

Other : 1642, 1660.25, 1667.25, 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75

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Old October 7th, 2013, 09:47 AM   #120 (permalink)
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7th October

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News risk is increasing the more time we spend in this political impasse. Markets are overall indecisive. We aren't doing anywhere but we are putting in good intraday ranges. Looking at the long term charts, 1620 isn't a massive move for us and we could easily make it there in a day or 2 if the outlook worsens.

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On the short term chart we can see the range is mostly 1670 -> 1690 with pokes through either side. It does appear slightly more bearish and I wouldn't be sueprised to see 1660 and possibly a breakdown if we do get through there. Of course, trading ranges always look like they are going to break as they go to an extreme.

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The weekly profile shows a value low of 1671.25 and we are currently below that.

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Then Fridays VAL is 1677.50 so we'd need to work our way up to there off the open and then to the opposite end of the range to move up to the top of our range. Any poke through last weeks VAL or Fridays VAL that then fails is very bearish for me and I'll be looking to short that scenario. We are down overnight but still only a few ticks below Fridays pit session low ans a way off last weeks low - and look where we ended up on Friday!

So for me, lots of news risk, rangebound market but with an eye for a failure to work back to value today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1663.00 -> 1692.25
Value 1671.25 -> 1683.25
S1 - 1668, R1 - 1697

Daily Numbers

Range 1667.50/1670.25 -> 1686.00
Value 1677.50 -> 1685.50
Globex 1666.50 > 1678.25

Other : 1642, 1660.25, 1667.25, 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1702, 1705, 1712.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; October 7th, 2013 at 10:08 AM.
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