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DTs Pre Market Prep

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16th February



Still volatile - but with volume stabilizing at just below 2M.

This is still not the ES that really wants to respect levels. Still a market that is nervous.

So still playing short term bounces, with the short term direction. Confirmed with Nasdaq and Dow.

Sorry there's not much more to add - but I think levels are out the window while this market is so volatile.

We have seen more depth in the book - but we are still seeing sweeps 5-6 ticks at a time and very few prints as we move through prices. So careful out there!

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19th Feb

Markets closed for Presidents day - enjoy the break!

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20th Feb



Once again, the market appears to have settled down. But we are looking at a holiday day and an overnight session.

Range overnight at the time of writing is just 12.5 points and market depth is below 50 on the inner 3-4 levels and below 200 above that. So we look set for another volatile day. Eyes on the depth as we get towards 9am EST.



We do potentially have a range there 2720-2750. For today - expectations are we still wont be honoring levels as the market will be illiquid and nervous. There's no news events today, so the best we can hope for is an injection of some much needed boredom, so that we can have a more stable market.

For now - if we get the volatility, will still be trying to take advantage of some momentum on one side and trying to time an entry off counter-move traders running out of steam.

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21st Feb



The market range has reduced but the environment for trading is still not where S&P traders like it.

Yesterday at one point, we swept 10 prices in less than 5 seconds. No news event, no warning. Those sweeps the rest of the day were evident but that was the biggest I saw.

It seems from a brokerage perspective - this is turning into a 'memorable' event - up there with Brexit. Brokers I've spoken to have had some traders lose more than their account balance but so far, I haven't heard of any broker getting wiped out by traders not paying.

I do think it's calming down. For the sweeps, it's hard to tell if it's liquidity providers getting out of the way a lot of the time but the 10 tick sweep yesterday was at least 3000 contracts.

Interesting times but I'm going to be on the lookout for those sweeps before engaging today.

The good thing about the sweeps, is we do get a good bounce after but to capitalize on that, you really have to be watching like a hawk.

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DionysusToast View Post
21st Feb
Yesterday at one point, we swept 10 prices in less than 5 seconds. No news event, no warning. Those sweeps the rest of the day were evident but that was the biggest I saw.

Hi Pete, do you remember around what time that sweep occured?

Sherlock Holmes

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Yup, saw that one too, and a few others...stay frosty



DionysusToast View Post
21st Feb



The market range has reduced but the environment for trading is still not where S&P traders like it.

Yesterday at one point, we swept 10 prices in less than 5 seconds. No news event, no warning. Those sweeps the rest of the day were evident but that was the biggest I saw.

It seems from a brokerage perspective - this is turning into a 'memorable' event - up there with Brexit. Brokers I've spoken to have had some traders lose more than their account balance but so far, I haven't heard of any broker getting wiped out by traders not paying.

I do think it's calming down. For the sweeps, it's hard to tell if it's liquidity providers getting out of the way a lot of the time but the 10 tick sweep yesterday was at least 3000 contracts.

Interesting times but I'm going to be on the lookout for those sweeps before engaging today.

The good thing about the sweeps, is we do get a good bounce after but to capitalize on that, you really have to be watching like a hawk.


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22nd Feb



Market has much more depth 200-300 a level heading into the open. It was an FOMC day, so while we did see a 50 point range, it was mostly after the FOMC announcement and there wasn't significant volume on the day.

As of typing we are back to less than 100 at each level. So I'm back to waiting this AM to see if the depth comes back and if not, if we are clear of that wild sweeping behavior.

All things being well, if we have an orderly market, we'll be able to play some momentum moves.

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Psy24X View Post
Hi Pete, do you remember around what time that sweep occured?

Sherlock Holmes

I think it was 9:41 or 10:41 - can't remember which now!

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23rd Feb

Hopefully, the last of the 'shorter' preps.



The market has calmed down a little but it's not so much the daily range but the fact that a lot of the market depth is back.

We also saw a bunch of "normal" things happening in the market yesterday - such as headfaking through the old high, traders getting trapped and the market being driven back through them - all over a range of a few ticks (as opposed to sliding 20 or so).



Two events stood out yesterday - "A" - a high volume spike which was a short term reversal point - indicating short term speculators playing and "B" - a very typical headfake up through an old level and then a push down - usually that's to shake people into and then out of positions...

Doesn't mean much on the history chart but as this was playing out, you could see it was returning back to normality.

In my opinion, if these plays are back on - it means we are returning to normality somewhat. As such, it's back to regular overnight prep starting Monday.

Fingers crossed all hell doesn't break loose in the meantime!

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26th Feb

'

Going on the presumption that markets are 'somewhat' back to normal (see here: https://www.jigsawtrading.com/2018/02/26/volatility-return-normal/). Overnoght we've broken through the high of last week and held above it, so will be using that as a line in the sand today.



A very wide range last week, with the main distrubution topping out around 2734.2 (weekly VAL). Eyes on that if we move down.



Zooming in, we can see we tested last weeks close and stayed above it. No sign of weakness yet.

Plan
- look for an early trade - volume into the open
- after that, look for continuation up if we stay above Fridays high
- shorts below Fridays high with a target of 2736
- Easy does it though.... look for good prices and be wary of any major sweeps/volatility disappearing


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2682 -> 2847.75
Value - 2709.25 -> 2734.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2710 / 2712.75 -> 2747.50
Value - 2714.25 -> 2729.75
Globex - 2742.50 -> 2761.50

Settlement 2748.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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