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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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5th Feb



A nice push down on Friday we broke the 2810 level overnight, then pushed up towards it - couldn't get there and then sellers really piled in.

So as with any big day like that, it's really open - we could snap back up, push down some more or go sideways. For me, specific price levels aren't as important as just trying to keep on the right side and get on board any move as it may be a big one, whichever way it breaks.



No weekly profile today - it's a bit pointless after that run down on Friday.

Plan
- Morning trade on only if we don't go really volatile overnight
- Pretty much a wait & see day - jumping on any volatility that develops
- Eyes on 2810


Daily Numbers
Range - 275875 -> 2807.75 / 2831
Value - 2771.75 -> 2807.50
Globex - 2733 -> 2757

Settlement 2756.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1162 (permalink)
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5th Feb



A nice push down on Friday we broke the 2810 level overnight, then pushed up towards it - couldn't get there and then sellers really piled in.

So as with any big day like that, it's really open - we could snap back up, push down some more or go sideways. For me, specific price levels aren't as important as just trying to keep on the right side and get on board any move as it may be a big one, whichever way it breaks.



No weekly profile today - it's a bit pointless after that run down on Friday.

Plan
- Morning trade on only if we don't go really volatile overnight
- Pretty much a wait & see day - jumping on any volatility that develops
- Eyes on 2810


Daily Numbers
Range - 275875 -> 2807.75 / 2831
Value - 2771.75 -> 2807.50
Globex - 2733 -> 2757

Settlement 2756.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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6th February



Big day yesterday, as we discussed on 29th Jan - the move up was exceptional. It's not a great shock that the reaction was exceptional.

Even in the bigger scheme of things - that was a big drop.



So the plan for the day is simple. There's not much benefit in having a grand plan. We've had ETFs wiped out, the media is having a field day (well, they need some excitement) - and we are still at very high levels.

We could as easily snap back up as go down another few hundred points. Obviously watch out for limit up/down.

No need for levels, no point guessing where any move will end. It's a market that needs to be played differently - wider stops, scaling in. If you play it at all. I'll watch but not in a hurry to engage.

Be careful.

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7th February



Liquidity was quite absent on the S&P yesterday - most of the time the depth being below 100 at each level.

This has continued overnight and the range is already over 40 points.

As such, the S&P is going to continue to behave exceptionally. So it's effectively a different market. We are seeing the market sweep 5-6 levels in an instant, which is not normal behavior.

In effect - the S&P is trading more like the DAX or Nasdaq does. If I wanted to trade those conditions, I wouldn't be trading S&P!

My take on this - stand to one side until the liquidity returns - that means depth in the 4-500 range on average.

So for me - I still think it's not worth the risk of trading today.

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8th February



Market is calming down, obviously but it's still very thin.

Right now market depth is very thin:



Yesterday it did get up to 1-200 per level but was variable. So I'm keeping my eye on it today but still think it's too soon to trade the ES the way I do.

If the liquidity comes back, I'll look to take some momentum trades but if not, I'll wait it out. Crude has been ok in terms of liquidity, so might be a wiser play again today.

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9th Feb

Markets looked like they were slowing down on Wednesday but there's still a log of whipping around going on.



Had dinner last night with Alex, the CEO of AXIA who mentioned they were loving these conditions - but then I guess they do love other things I stay away from like news events.

Anyway - still waiting for a return to normality before I start trading this. Glad that some are enjoying it!

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12th Feb




Still very volatile, with over a 100 point range on Fridays day session. Overnight it's still volatile but I'm going to re-engage with the market today.

No levels going in, as it's so volatile there's no point trying to guess where it'll move.

I'll be looking to play momentum moves, possibly scaling in. As I've basically stayed away from this market to now, I don't have a feel for it - so the scaling in is just a possibility and it'll really depend on how the first attempts at momentum plays go.

I have a feeling (but a guess), that it might just be easier to jump on bounces for 7-8 ticks and get out of the way. So the object of today's session is to feel out these conditions and see if I can find away to play them.

Hopefully tomorrow, I can share something of use for this market.

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13th Feb



The Market does appear to be calming down. Only 50 point range yesterday but liquidity still very low and we are still seeing the market being swept 4-5 levels in an instant at times.

I had some fun with it last night, waiting for small ranges to form, then bracketing them with orders and scalping out small breaks, just getting swept in with the volatility.

A lot of effort though and not a particularly effective way to trade, so tonight I will do the opposite, look for short term exhaustion in counter moves and try to jump on board.

Overall, I'm still waiting for the market to return to normal and to take some low risk opportunities looking to exploit the volatility.

No levels still - it's far too volatile to attempt to guess where the market may react.

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14th Feb



Market is calming down and volume was below 2 million yesterday. So let's be ready for another switch in momentum/liquidity.



And we now seem to have a little structure coming back. We can see that yesterday, we pushed through the overnight low before an attempt at the prior days high. We traded back and forth at the top there from around 2559 to 2666. That area has held so far overnight.

So eyes on the market depth. It was mostly below 200 yesterday and inside levels below 100. So looking for us to get back to 3-400s

Plan
- if the inside 3 levels are still below 100, look to play short term bounces with the short term trend
- if we get better liquidity, look for plays off the volume profile, looking for the sort of structure we'd normally see for short term trend continuation

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15th February



Interesting day yesterday - it was plodding along till the 8:30 announcements and then the market volatility spiked massively. The actual 9:30 open was calm in comparison. The numbers weren't terrible but this market is still very nervous.



The volatility increase put an end to the idea we were calming down. 60 points in the day session and almost 80 points range including overnight. Volume around 2 million though, so participation didn't go back to peak levels.



With the increase in volatility, it's back to just playing the volatility and not trying too hard guessing where traders might react. So right now - it's back to yesterdays "Plan A: look to play short term bounces with the short term trend".

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