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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #1151 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
17 Jan



A bit of a wild day yesterday - we may new all time highs overnight & again in the day session but then dropped back through 2770.



Not much on the weekly profile yet to get excited about - I would be wary above 2790 that we may range from there to about 96 where that bulge in the profile is.



Yesterday was a big day but in the grand scheme of things, the drop doesn't even count as a pullback. So be on the lookout for more downside, I think the market is ready for it. I'd look out at 60 below but if we get through that I'd be looking for 2700's. There really isn't much traded below us.

This doesn't mean it will go down - just that if we get some downside momentum, I think we can have a good run south.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- A close eye on yesterdays low because I think we have great potential downside if we can break it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2808.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2808.50
Globex - 2779 -> 2786.50

Settlement 2782.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

Nice analysis as always Peter. We did have a good attempt on the downside in the first 30 minutes, did not carry through, but several nice short scalps.

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18th January



Well - a rebound yesterday - we saw early sellers but they couldn't get any traction and the overnight low held.



40 point range so far, a large distribution in the middle but seeing as that didn't stop us yesterday or today, so I doubt it's relevant.



Overnight is honoring the new highs from yesterday. I see no bias here at all.

Plan
- No Bias but decent expectation of range
- Look for an early trade
- After that watch the "day trader" levels for a reaction
- Look for continuation plays - after a hold or break of a level. Playing anywhere in the weeks range looks OK

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2769.25 -> 2809.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2807.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2779 / 2780.50 -> 2809.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2802
Globex - 2800.75 -> 2808

Settlement 2803.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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19th January



An up and down week. Moving but no obvious direction.



There is a bulge in the profile this week but as per yesterdays prep - we had 2 days where it ran right over that, so I am not taking any notice of it today.



On a daily basis, we've been honoring levels, so moves away from levels have been doing well.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade off the open
- After that, looking for a move away from a level. Prior highs have been working well this week
- If we build a tight range, will look to trade extremes
- so very much a day to let it unfold and not expect too many clues from the history

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2809.50
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2793/75 -> 2807.75 /2808
Value - 2796. 75 -> 2803.25
Globex - 2792 -> 2801

Settlement 2796.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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22nd January



The markets still Trumping upwards. Volatile though, still waiting for it to settle into a range before we get any medium term predictability.



A big distribution last week but remember - we ran over it twice as if it wasn't there - so normally, I'd expect this to slow down any moves downside but now I'm not really sure. Answers on a postcard please.



The tail end of last week we ranged from 92-12. So that's what I have my eye on going in. We held Fridays VAL so far overnight, so watching the day trader levels too.

Plan
- No bias
- will look for an opening trade, after that playing it by ear, looking for reactions off the usual levels & any high volume areas that develop

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2812.75
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806

Daily Numbers
Range - 2791.75 / 2799.50 -> 2812.75
Value - 2802 -> 2808
Globex - 2802 -> 2810.50

Settlement –2811.50


Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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23rd January



Nice push up yesterday. So now we are looking at that sideways action from last week to hold on any retraces (not that we have retraces any more!)



The high of last weeks distribution is around 2808. That seems a long way down but not much has traded between here & there so if there is any selling pressure, it should not be a problem to go that low.



A big move up yesterday and that has continued so far overnight. You can see to the left the 'base' we built. What is happening now is not normal, the market will revert to a range but there is no point fighting it or trying to predict when it will do so.

Plan
- Still no real bias - but obviously I'm not going to short any moves up.
- Day trader levels still working well - so looking for momentum away from any level to jump on board
- Fresh air above so no levels there, an eye on the downside - we could whip back and retrace yesterdays range similar to the big days last week
- Basically a reactive day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2812.75
Value - 2791.50 -> 2806

Daily Numbers
Range - 2802 / 2809.25 -> 2835.50
Value - 2817.50 -> 2828
Globex - 2834 -> 2840.50

Settlement 2835.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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29th January

Sorry for the gap in preps - had platform issues...



It's worth zooming out to see a few years data. As you can see this move up is exceptional. Not saying you should fight it but it's worth having a few pennies aside for trading a correction - or just being aware of the possibility so you don't get stuck like a deer in headlights if it does start to correct.




Once again we see a large distribution below us that 'could' act as support but of late, we've not been pulling back to support, so it's somewhat moot!



You can see the high of this range more clearly here - so around 2850-2855 is where we might expect to target if we fall back

Plan
- No bias - but obviously market likes going up
- looking for continuation moves if we break the overnight los as not much traded down to 50
- other than that - fresh air above, so looking at the daytradr levels but looking forward to just playing what unfolds at these new levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2802 -> 2873.25
Value - 2832.75 -> 2851.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2841 / 2846.50 -> 2873.25
Value - 2846.75 -> 2861.75
Globex - 2868.50 -> 2878.50

Settlement 2874.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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30th January



Well - that looks almost like a pullback. Still - most of it is overnight trade, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Ideal scenario would be that we start marking out a range we can trade between. That hasn't happened yet.

The downside has good potential after this move up. Lots of new longs that might bail.



We can see the low of last weeks big distribution has held - so eyes on that range today.



A nice run down overnight, so on the lookout for volatility. Lots of daytradr levels around us, but it's a break of the overnight low I'd really like to see.

Trouble is - this has been a market that refuses to stay down - so of course looking for volatility in both directions. We could easily snap back and take back the losses.

Plan
- no bias
- looking for trades off the regular levels
- will jump on volatility from anywhere really - but with a tight stop and ready to exit on any that lose momentum
- prize trade would be shorts coming in below the overnight low


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2802 -> 2873.25
Value - 2832.75 -> 2851.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2851.50 -> 2871.25 / 2878.50
Value - 2858 -> 2866.50
Globex - 2831 -> 2858

Settlement 2853.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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31st January



We continued the small pullback yesterday. Volatility made it tough in the morning. 2 ways you can handle this in my opinion - wider stops or repeated attempts at joining momentum. The latter involves jumping on momentum but getting out if it ticks back - so using the momentum to get you an initial move you way but then bailing if you get no follow through.

I imagine it was a rough day for many and standing aside when it gets wild like that - sweeping 4-5 ticks at a time, is definitely a smart thing to do.



Weekly profile wise - it's elongated, which generally speaking doesn't help us much.



Overnight, we've moved around yesterdays range, so nothing new. As we go into today, we are looking for signs of volatility again to set the tone. We could move up 30 points as easily as down 30 points.

Plan
- Careful with the early trade today
- looking out for a run on a break of yesterdays low
- other than that - playing it by ear, eyes on volatility and trying to jump on any sustained moves
- Hold onto your hat

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2818.50 -> 2873.25
Value - Too elongated - n/a

Daily Numbers
Range - 2818.50 -> 2839.50 / 2858
Value - 2858 -> 2866.50
Globex - 2821.50 -> 2839.50

Settlement 2824.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

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1st Feb



I put in a new line at 2810 - it was a pause point previously and now we've held there. Not saying the market will hold but a lot of people will be watching that level. If we get below 2810, look out for acceleration down.



We can see a range starting to form - so look out as we get towards 2820 and 2845. To me - looks like it's not worth playing in the middle unless it's an opening trade.



Same story here. Just a couple of days at the low of the push down

Plan
- Early trade on today
- After the opening pushes - avoid trades between 2820 & 2840 - quite happy to trade moves away from them in either direction
- looking for acceleration below 2810


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2813 -> 2878.50
Value - 2845.50 -> 2816.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2813 -> 2839.75
Value - 2822.25 -> 2835.25
Globex - 2826-> 2837.25

Settlement 2825.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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2nd Feb



We held 2810 yesterday. As per yesterdays prep, I am looking for acceleration down if this breaks. Seems like yesterday confirmed people have their eye on it.



The major distribution from this week grew, so I see that now as around 2816-2840. Expecting chop between those prices.



Yesterday we just rotated around the range, so no new information other than we like trading here at the moment.

Overall action yesterday was pretty bad. Market was whipping around, sweeping 4-5 prices at a time with correlation between Dow, Nasdaq & S&P broken down. It's a tough market to play.

Plan
- Look for an early trade off the open
- After that no trading between 16 & 40 (obviously with a little flexibility)
- Look to fade the range
- If we break 10 to the downside, watch for volume increases and join any push down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2809.50 -> 2878.50
Value - 2815 -> 2840

Daily Numbers
Range - 2809.50 / 2812.50 -> 2836.75
Value - 2816.50-> 2829
Globex - 2811.75 -> 2831

Settlement 2822.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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