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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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28th November



Moving up but it's hard work, slow choppy days - trying our patience. It's hard to see what's going to increase volatility as we head to the New Year.



The upper distribution from last week bottoms out around 94 - so eyes on that if we push down further, we might see some downside volatility if that breaks.



A lot of overlapping sessions here. Overnight we've held yesterdays low.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Looking for a trade off the open as it may chop later
- Watching the usual daily levels for a reaction
- Interested in a break of 94, will jump on any moves down through there as there's a decent chance volatility will increase

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2603
Value - 2582 -> 2602.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2596.50 / 2597.75 -> 2605.50
Value - 2599.75 -> 2603
Globex - 2597.50 -> 2603

Settlement 2599.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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30th November



We had a pause yesterday, so on the lookout today to see if we can react to the move up - either with more upside or a decent move down. Volume is certainly there, so a great chance of follow - through.



Eyes on the large distribution below from 2623-2626.50 - so eyes on both prices.



We've held yesterdays value area as far, so eyes on that.

Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on 29th
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2634.25
Value - 2602.50 -> 2633

Daily Numbers

Range - 2619.75 -> 2634.25
Value - 2621.75 -> 2627.75
Globex - 2621.75 -> 2628.50

Settlement 2625

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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1st December



More pushes up - real teflon market this. Perhaps like Bitcoin, it'll never move down again....



No use in the weekly profile in these circumstances.




Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on yesterday
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range
- mostly looking to jump on board again

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2609 -> 2657

Daily Numbers
Range - 2621.75 / 2634.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2641 -> 2654
Globex - 2637.25 -> 2645.75

Settlement 2648

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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11th December

Back from a training course in Hong Kong...




Onto the March contract. Eyes on Bitcoin today. The way the CBOE contract is moving, we could easily limit up/down on there and who knows what that will do to the markets overall? From the S&P perspective, we are in the middle of what's been a wild, choppy area. It'll be most predictable at the top - so eyes on 2668.




Last week was really one large distribution. Not much to be gained from analyzing that much...




Market has marched up towards the highs - so path of least resistance is upside.

Plan
- No strong bias going into the day but preferring the upside
- Look for an opening trade as it is a little vague going in
- Looking for a reaction at 68
- Really a wait and see day, looking for clarity from intraday activity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2640.25 / 2646.50 -> 2665
Value - 2649 -> 2653.50
Globex - 2654 -> 2658.25

Settlement 2653.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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Just updated the images! No idea where they came from!

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12th December



Market popped through the highs - so now looking for signs we'll roll over and revert to rangebound behavior for a while.



Not much from the weekly profile, other than we haven't popped the top yet - so on the lookout for a headfake!



A narrow day yesterday, we've stayed above the days range mostly. Watching the normal daily levels. Not really seeing an area where we'd see a lot of sellers, unless we can get below yesterdays range.

Plan
- low expectation until this "top" has been resolved (new push up/headfake/roll over)
- Looking for moves down to yesterdays levels as potential areas where buyers may come in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652.25 / 2654.50 -> 2664
Value - 2657-> 2661.50
Globex - 2663.50 -> 2667.75

Settlement 2651.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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13th December



Still no resolution of the top - we have broken through the top and overnight we've pushed down. So today we see what the US traders thing of this push downside.



So far we can see the push down has been rejected.



The range was very low yesterday but volume was decent. So there's no lack of traders, just a lack of decisiveness.. I think all it'll take to make people decisive is a bit of a push down through the overnight low. Not sure if a push up through the highs will bring in volume but it's possible.

Plan
- low expectation day
- best chance of follow through is a break downside
- looking to trade the open aggresively as there might not be anything on later
- definitely a day where we have to wait & see after any initial push.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2673
Value - 2658.25 -> 2672.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2663.25 -> 2673
Value - 2668.25 -> 2672.75
Globex - 2659.25 -> 2669

Settlement 2664.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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14th December



The high still not resolved, FOMC didn't shift the market much. Is this the end of volatility on the S&P 500 for the year?



We can see the upper distribution bottoms out around 2664 - so eyes on that.



We've settled into a tight range - so watching the extremes - 2660-2675.50. Really not seeing much at all.

We need something to give the market a shake - perhaps the employment numbers....

Plan
- Very low expectation day
- watching for an opening trade - but overnight range is so small so far that might not be on either
- No trades between 60 & 75.50 - look for action close to these extremes
- Exception will be a reaction at 64


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2662.25 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2659.25 / 2666.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2670 -> 2674.50
Globex - 2668 -> 2672.50

Settlement 2666.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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Peter, sorry for being off topic but this is a must say

I am really digging the volume spike webinars

As usual, excellent job





Thank you

-William

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15th December



We started to turn down yesterday, so today looking for follow through. We did have a nice break and people did jump on board as expected when we got the break. Saying that - volume on the day was average. For now though I will bias short.



The lower distribution tops out at 2662, so eyes on that today.



We also had a late pullback last night to 2661.75, a tick below the level above, which has held overnight. So we go into today with a lot more clarity than yesterday.

Plan
- Short bias
- 62 a key level, above that I'm less inclined to short, so shorts below 62 and possibly longs above

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2651.75 -> 2675.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2654.75/ 2668 -> 2671.25 / 2673.50
Value - 2654.75 -> 2666.75
Globex - 2651.75 -> 2661

Settlement 2653.25

Today only - 2662

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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