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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1131 (permalink)
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28th November

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Moving up but it's hard work, slow choppy days - trying our patience. It's hard to see what's going to increase volatility as we head to the New Year.

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The upper distribution from last week bottoms out around 94 - so eyes on that if we push down further, we might see some downside volatility if that breaks.

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A lot of overlapping sessions here. Overnight we've held yesterdays low.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Looking for a trade off the open as it may chop later
- Watching the usual daily levels for a reaction
- Interested in a break of 94, will jump on any moves down through there as there's a decent chance volatility will increase

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2603
Value - 2582 -> 2602.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2596.50 / 2597.75 -> 2605.50
Value - 2599.75 -> 2603
Globex - 2597.50 -> 2603

Settlement – 2599.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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  #1132 (permalink)
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30th November

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We had a pause yesterday, so on the lookout today to see if we can react to the move up - either with more upside or a decent move down. Volume is certainly there, so a great chance of follow - through.

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Eyes on the large distribution below from 2623-2626.50 - so eyes on both prices.

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We've held yesterdays value area as far, so eyes on that.

Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on 29th
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2634.25
Value - 2602.50 -> 2633

Daily Numbers

Range - 2619.75 -> 2634.25
Value - 2621.75 -> 2627.75
Globex - 2621.75 -> 2628.50

Settlement – 2625

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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  #1133 (permalink)
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1st December

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More pushes up - real teflon market this. Perhaps like Bitcoin, it'll never move down again....

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No use in the weekly profile in these circumstances.

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Plan
- looking for a reaction today based on decent participation overall and the big move up on yesterday
- not so interested in specific price levels but will watch the usual levels - e.g. a break of yesterdays range
- mostly looking to jump on board again

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2596.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2609 -> 2657

Daily Numbers
Range - 2621.75 / 2634.50 -> 2658.50
Value - 2641 -> 2654
Globex - 2637.25 -> 2645.75

Settlement – 2648

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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  #1134 (permalink)
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11th December

Back from a training course in Hong Kong...

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Onto the March contract. Eyes on Bitcoin today. The way the CBOE contract is moving, we could easily limit up/down on there and who knows what that will do to the markets overall? From the S&P perspective, we are in the middle of what's been a wild, choppy area. It'll be most predictable at the top - so eyes on 2668.

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Last week was really one large distribution. Not much to be gained from analyzing that much...

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Market has marched up towards the highs - so path of least resistance is upside.

Plan
- No strong bias going into the day but preferring the upside
- Look for an opening trade as it is a little vague going in
- Looking for a reaction at 68
- Really a wait and see day, looking for clarity from intraday activity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2640.25 / 2646.50 -> 2665
Value - 2649 -> 2653.50
Globex - 2654 -> 2658.25

Settlement – 2653.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; December 11th, 2017 at 07:24 AM.
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  #1135 (permalink)
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Just updated the images! No idea where they came from!

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  #1136 (permalink)
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12th December

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Market popped through the highs - so now looking for signs we'll roll over and revert to rangebound behavior for a while.

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Not much from the weekly profile, other than we haven't popped the top yet - so on the lookout for a headfake!

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A narrow day yesterday, we've stayed above the days range mostly. Watching the normal daily levels. Not really seeing an area where we'd see a lot of sellers, unless we can get below yesterdays range.

Plan
- low expectation until this "top" has been resolved (new push up/headfake/roll over)
- Looking for moves down to yesterdays levels as potential areas where buyers may come in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2622.75 -> 2668
Value - 2626.50 -> 2649.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2652.25 / 2654.50 -> 2664
Value - 2657-> 2661.50
Globex - 2663.50 -> 2667.75

Settlement – 2651.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50,. 2596.50

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  #1137 (permalink)
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13th December

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Still no resolution of the top - we have broken through the top and overnight we've pushed down. So today we see what the US traders thing of this push downside.

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So far we can see the push down has been rejected.

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The range was very low yesterday but volume was decent. So there's no lack of traders, just a lack of decisiveness.. I think all it'll take to make people decisive is a bit of a push down through the overnight low. Not sure if a push up through the highs will bring in volume but it's possible.

Plan
- low expectation day
- best chance of follow through is a break downside
- looking to trade the open aggresively as there might not be anything on later
- definitely a day where we have to wait & see after any initial push.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2673
Value - 2658.25 -> 2672.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2663.25 -> 2673
Value - 2668.25 -> 2672.75
Globex - 2659.25 -> 2669

Settlement – 2664.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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  #1138 (permalink)
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14th December

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The high still not resolved, FOMC didn't shift the market much. Is this the end of volatility on the S&P 500 for the year?

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We can see the upper distribution bottoms out around 2664 - so eyes on that.

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We've settled into a tight range - so watching the extremes - 2660-2675.50. Really not seeing much at all.

We need something to give the market a shake - perhaps the employment numbers....

Plan
- Very low expectation day
- watching for an opening trade - but overnight range is so small so far that might not be on either
- No trades between 60 & 75.50 - look for action close to these extremes
- Exception will be a reaction at 64


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2652.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2662.25 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2659.25 / 2666.25 -> 2675.50
Value - 2670 -> 2674.50
Globex - 2668 -> 2672.50

Settlement – 2666.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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  #1139 (permalink)
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Peter, sorry for being off topic but this is a must say

I am really digging the volume spike webinars

As usual, excellent job


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Thank you

-William

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  #1140 (permalink)
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15th December

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We started to turn down yesterday, so today looking for follow through. We did have a nice break and people did jump on board as expected when we got the break. Saying that - volume on the day was average. For now though I will bias short.

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The lower distribution tops out at 2662, so eyes on that today.

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We also had a late pullback last night to 2661.75, a tick below the level above, which has held overnight. So we go into today with a lot more clarity than yesterday.

Plan
- Short bias
- 62 a key level, above that I'm less inclined to short, so shorts below 62 and possibly longs above

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2651.75 -> 2675.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2674.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2654.75/ 2668 -> 2671.25 / 2673.50
Value - 2654.75 -> 2666.75
Globex - 2651.75 -> 2661

Settlement – 2653.25

Today only - 2662

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; December 15th, 2017 at 05:09 AM.
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