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DTs Pre Market Prep

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14th November



As per yesterdays prep - it's still unclear but at least now we have 2 days with a really tight range - we might not break that today but it is energy waiting to blow off when it does break. So 2070-2083 is the range.



VP for this week starting to shape up a lot like last weeks - eyes on this for the time being.



Pretty easy today - wait for an extreme and fade it as long as there's not a mass of momentum as we approach. When this 2 day range does break - try to jump on as we'll likely have stops.

After a break - play it by ear....

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- After 15 mins, no trades between 70 and 83. Look for fades/breaks at those prices.
- Jump on a break if we see a lot of aggression as we might have a decent stop run

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2563.25 -> 2594.50
Value - 2578.25-> 2591

Daily Numbers
Range - 2570,25 / 2572 -> 2585.50
Value - 2579.50 -> 2584
Globex - 2577.25 -> 2582.25

Settlement 2582

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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Market Wizard
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DionysusToast View Post
Settlement 2582

Hi DT, what does settlement mean and why is it important in your analysis?

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  #1123 (permalink)
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Settlement Price
The official daily closing price of futures and options on futures contracts, as determined in accordance with Rule 813, used by the Clearing House for marking all open positions at the close of the daily settlement cycle.
https://institute.cmegroup.com/support/glossary

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15th November



Bit of a Connor McGreggor market "You'll do nuttink". Moved down yesterday but then straight back up and overnight down again. Eyes on 2593 as we've had 3 hits to that area and no push through yet. Not necessarily saying it's a definite long trade as much of an area of interest. We could see a nice run down if it does break.



Ugly - indicates range extension more than continued downside. Let's see..



You can see how violent the push down was and the push back up - them market snoozed in the afternoon. So our premise of downside moves being of more interest to speculators are holding. Saying that, still hard to set a bias into today.

Plan
- No bias
- short below yesterdays range but caution at 2593 area.
- Other than that - play the usual levels and follow the volume as I'm not seeing much in terms of longer term levels or obvious profile levels

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2564.25 -> 2585.50
Value - 2573-> 2583.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2564.25 -> 2578.25 / 2582.25
Value - 2572.25 -> 2577.75
Globex - 2565.50 -> 2578

Settlement 2578

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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Grantx View Post
Hi DT, what does settlement mean and why is it important in your analysis?

As Midas said - it's the settlement - or the 'real' closing price.

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No prep today...


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DionysusToast View Post
No prep today...






Enjoy!


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20th Nov



Still unclear and waiting for a decent range to form - but with an eye on both 2562 and 2539.25 as potential low points. Not trading those but watching for participation upside if one of those levels hold.



The volume profile tapers out below at 2562 and above at 2584.50. Not much else of interest on there for me.



Not much move on Friday. This weeks a holiday week - so watch out for general lack of participation. We know the tail end of the weak will be slow but it might be slow from the start.

Plan
- look for an open trade considering it could well be slow thereafter
- look for participation away from one of our regular levels (below) or the levels mentioned above.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2555.50 -> 2589.50
Value - 2569.75-> 2584.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2576.25 -> 2583.25 / 2586
Value - 2579 -> 2581.50
Globex - 2567.75 -> 2578.75

Settlement 2569.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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21st November

2 days left till Thanksgiving, 3 days to Black Friday carnage!



Volume lo yesterday - around a million contracts. Crude was a much better trade.



Price-wise, we stayed within last weeks range during the day session. We were on the lookout for 84.50 yesterday and the high was 84 but so late in the day as to most likely be well missed by most.



Overnight, we've traded around yesterdays value area. Still eyes on 84.50 above but also an eye on the regular daily levels. Yesterday the open trade setup was a bit fuzzy, no clear step in the profile from overnight as the top of the closest high volume area tapered off but my guesstimate was about 76.50 with it being the closest area above 5k contracts traded. We got down to 77 and I completely had my eye off the ball at that point. The open was so slow, I didn't think it's push down as far as it did as quick as it did. You snooze, you lose...

Plan
- Look our for the early/open trade
- eyes on 84.50 above (which basically means a headfake through yesterdays high at this point)
- eyes also on the regular levels
- hard to see where we'd have a spike in participation but down from a push up is best by the book
- definitely a day where we might not have much on the table

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2555.50 -> 2589.50
Value - 2569.75-> 2584.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2567.75 / 2577 -> 2584
Value - 2580.25 -> 2583.25
Globex - 2579.25 -> 2583.25

Settlement 2582

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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22nd November



A pop up through the highs was a nice surprise yesterday. Now looking for signs we'll roll over to the bottom of our range (wherever that is).



Very little trade from here down to 2584 - so of we push down, we could be back at 84 very quickly.



You can see the same thing here, big push up but and no real volume on the way up. It's now the day before Thanksgiving, so we might not see much of anything.

Plan
- Watch for a breakdown for a quick move back to 84 and potentially beyond
- To the upside, I think a scale in is appropriate as it's new ground
- Not much else here other than eye on volatility as it's holiday tomorrow

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2567.75 -> 2600.50
Value - N/A - too extended

Daily Numbers
Range - 2579.25/ 2589.25 -> 2600.50
Value - 2595.75 -> 2599.25
Globex - 2594.50 -> 2599.25

Settlement 2596.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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January 7, 2019


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