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DTs Pre Market Prep

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17th October



We popped the top of our range but no follow through as yet. In fact, it's pretty lackluster.



Last weeks profile was very evenly distributed and yesterdays profile was the same, so probability of rangebound behavior is quite high. It's not clear yet whether last weeks range will impact this weeks action.



A pretty slow market yesterday with us once again seeing a decent trade off the open and then us testing the overnight high both sides - with a 5 tick push through the range either side.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Look for trades outside of the yesterdays range
- Low expectation day overall

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2555.50
Value - 2545 -> 2551
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2550.75 -> 2557.75
Value - 2552.25 -> 2554.75
Globex - 2554.25 -> 2557

Settlement – 2556.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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18th October



738k traded yesterday - complete lack of interest. Patience is needed while we are in this range.



We are still showing a very regular, D-shaped profile for the week, so trades in the middle are off the table for me, unless directly off the open.



Yesterday we moved down to overnight low, then up and down again to prior days VAL, so the 'regular' daily levels are being observed, even though it's slow. So keep an eye on them.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Look for fades at the extremes of the weeks range + the levels below
- Low expectation day overall, until we can break the range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2555.50
Value - 2545 -> 2551
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2552.25 -> 2557.75
Value - 2553.50 -> 2557.75
Globex - 2556.25 -> 2558.50

Settlement 2557

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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19th October



A bit of a move down overnight - well into last weeks range, so an eye on that today.



We didnt' make it quite as low as the bottom of the major distribution from last week - but it does look pretty volatile still, so won't be surprised if we push down again.



It's very volatile at the moment, so it's hard to comment on what to do off the open as I don't know where it'll be. After an extended push down we often have a 'rebalance' at the open. In this case we could expect an initial pop up off the open (if we open below 50... Best to let that play out or just play it long term.

After that it's looking for volatility and if we get it -riding with it. It could just be that this European move is just a flash in the pan and that the US session is dull again.

Plan
- Look for an early trade but be aware it could just be rebalancing
- Go with any move if it's volatile.
- If not - revert back to fading extremes/yesterdays levels
- Be flexible - hard to predict what the US session will bring after this overnight move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2562.25
Value - 2552.50 -> 2558.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers

Range - 2556.25 / 2557.25 -> 2562/2562.25
Value - 2558.75 -> 2561.25
Globex - 2542.50 -> 2560.75

Settlement 2560.00

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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20th October



A lot of volume and volatility yesterday which has continued overnight. Interesting times.



A wide range for the week compared to what we've seen but most volume 2552.25 -> 2561.25



So we don't know what's happning - whether we are entering a new period of volatility, the market is marking out a new range that it'll settle into, if this is the last gasp before a reversal. Hopefully we are going to experience some volatility as it's been pretty useless since September.

Plan
- Opening trade on today
- After the opening trade, just follow momemtum, try to scale into trades
- We do have the potential to be opening a decent gap up - so be wary of any initial moves down - like yesterdays opening move, it may be just rebalancing
- If momemtum/volatility dies after the open - look for a trade off the usual levels.
- Pay particular attention to 52.25 & 61.25 today

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2571.25
Value - 2552.25 -> 2561.25
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2542.50 / 2545.25 -> 2560.50/2560.75
Value - 2558.75 -> 2561.25
Globex - 2559.50-> 2571.75

Settlement 2560.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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23rd October



An interesting few days we had on Thursday on Friday. Interesting in that it was more volatile and that the big moves were made overnight with the day sessions just retracing those moves.



Eyes on 2564 if we do move down. That's the upper distribution from last week. If we do move down through that and below 2560, I'll be looking for us to work to the lower part of the bigger distribution to 2552.



A move up overnight but the volatility from Thursday and Friday night sessions has gone for now. This is very much a wait & see day. We are at new highs - not much other than Fridays/overnights levels to play off. So we have to see how it plays out.

Plan
- Opening trade on today
- Watching Friday/Overnight levels but the history doesn't help much today
- So watching for ranges/volatility to guide us off the open

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2542.50 -> 2573.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2561.75
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2559.50 /2566 -> 2573.25
Value - 2566.50 -> 2571.50
Globex - 2572.50-> 2577.25

Settlement 2574

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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24th October



A volatile day yesterday and decent volume. So hopefully, we can see some more volatility today.



We have stopped short of the main distribution from last week. So be on the lookout for any snaps back up today.



We basically opened at the overnight high and moved down for the whole day. Now - I'm not sure about you but I can't actually remember the last time we had a one way down day like this. So people will be bearing that in mind today and if we do push down again (eyes on Friday low of 2559.50), I think we'll see a lot of downside participation. For the short term anyway.

Overnight we have held yesterdays low so far, so a technical market at the moment and eyes will be on the usual levels.

Plan
- No bias at this point
- short bias below 59.50
- Just watching for volatility and moves at our regular levels, will jump on any volatility move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2542.50 -> 2573.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2561.75
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2562 -> 2576.75 / 2577.25
Value - 2567.50 -> 2575
Globex - 2561.50-> 2566.50

Settlement 2563.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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26th October



2 Million contracts traded and a big range yesterday. We really seem to have decent volatility when we push down.



An elongated week and as such - I tend to not pay too much attention to the weeks profile and certainly not the value area.



So far, we can see that we have held above the value area/late swing from yesterday. Into today, once again we are watching for volatility. We are switching from high to low volatility from day to day, so each day the first thing we have to do is get a handle on how the volatility is playing out. For index futures we watch:

- How well the ES, NQ, YM are moving together (if not - low volatility)
- The amount of market depth on the ES (if mostly above 1000 a level - low volatility)
- switches as we get to extremes of volume/regular levels

Plan
- Open trade on
- No bias at all into today
- Wait & see day... Eyes on volatility and play accordingly - scaling in if it looks like a volatile move
- Eyes on the regular levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2573.25
Value - not worth following
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2565 / 2576
Value - 2546.75 -> 2557.25
Globex - 2556.75 -> 2560

Settlement 2558.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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27th October



I'm still looking for a consolidation zone, I've market out a potential area which will need to be refined as we go. Nothing to do today about this - but let's watch it over the next few days.



An elongated week with most trading between 57.25 & 68.75 - which pretty well marks out the overnight range so far. So I am watching for a decent push down if we break 52.75.



We are experiencing swings in volatility with yesterday being low volatility. If you look at the purple lines you can see we help the prior days high and value high. As we mentioned a few days ago the shallow days are choppy but seem to be reasonable to play given the observance of the usual levels.

I'm not sure if the overnight volatility - higher than yesterdays day session, points to a volatile day or not. So an eye on that.

Plan
- Eyes on volatility after the open - then use that as a guide how to play it.
- Look for an early trade (in case it's low volatility)
- If low volatility - look for the market to observe the usual levels
- If high volatility - try to scale into a move

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2577.25
Value - 2556.60 -?> 2569
S1 - 2554.50, R1 - 2583.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2556.25 / 2557.25 -> 2565
Value - 2559 -> 2562.50
Globex - 2557.50 -> 2569.25

Settlement 2561.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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30th October



FOMC this week - so a possible slow start.. overall we are at the top of our presumed range, so looking for an extension away and a retest or a move to the lows. The move to the lows being the more likely.



The major distribution from last week tops out around 2568 - so caution as we approach that.



Also watching 2571 - Fridays value low.

Plan
- Opening trade on (as FOMC later might cause it to be slow)
- Looking for continuation downside to the bottom of our range (around 2540)
- Longs if we can move away from 75 with volume and return to test it

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2580.75
Value - 2556.50 -> 2571.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2557.50 / 2563.25 -> 2580.75
Value - 2571 -> 2580.50
Globex - 2572.25-> 2578.25

Settlement 2578.50

Today only 2568, 2571

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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31st October



Still around the top of the range - we were looking for a move down from the top yesterday & got that albeit a narrow move. Again as it's FOMC this week, it'll probably be slow till then.



Nothing really to report from this other than we dipped into last weeks major distribution and popped up.



We held the low of the late range from yesterday. So an eye on 2571. Other than that, watch the usual levels

Plan
- Look for opening trade as it could be choppy after
- Downside bias overall
- Look for a trade off one of yesterdays levels or any reasonable backstop that forms intraday if market moves down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2541.50 -> 2580.75
Value - 2556.50 -> 2571.50
S1 - 2553.25, R1 - 2592.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2565.50 -> 2577.50 / 2578.25
Value - 2567.75 -> 2573.25
Globex - 2566.75-> 2570.25

Settlement 2568.25

Today only 2568, 2571

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50, 2550.75

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