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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1091 (permalink)
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28th September



We managed a nice move up yesterday and managed to pop through the top of the range. So we ended up with 2 oppo

1 - the fade fade outside yesterdays range
2 - the fade of the overall range we've been in the past few 10 days or so

Where we are now, we'd normally expect continuation down to the bottom of the range. Back down to 2486. Volume was pretty high on the move up yesterday though so we may be able to escape the range - so that's our job today - figure out which.



Still not much from the weekly profile...



We don't want to push down too much today , there's no obvious place to look for a hold on the downside other than the overnight low we are marking out.

Plan
- No bias - but presume downside continuation if we break the overnight low
- Take continuations through the top if we see good volume pace through the overnight high
- Beware headfakes above 2510

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2509
Value - 2594.25 -> 2502
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2493 -> 2509.25
Value - 2495 -> 2505.50
Globex - 2501.50 -> 2505.50

Settlement – 2504.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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Last edited by Jigsaw Trading; September 28th, 2017 at 08:46 AM.
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  #1092 (permalink)
Legendary  Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
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29th September



No move yesterday. We stayed within Wednesdays range so we start today where we started yesterday - at the top of a range, waiting to see if we can break or not.

Oh yeah - and it's Friday.... not typically the most volatile day.



The profile is quite even through the week. We do have a case for longs below 94 but no firm convictions.



Yesterday was a typical day trader day - a push down to the overnight low, failure and push up - but low volume and a small range.

As with yesterday, I don't see much to get excited about here. A hold or pop close to the top would be ok for continuation down but the best trade would be moving through the top and headfake/continuation.

Plan
- No bias
- look for an early trade as a good chance of chop later.
- Would like to see a break of yesterdays range or failed attempt at it.
- Will be happy to not trade...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2509
Value - 2594 -> 2504
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2499 / 2500 -> 2508.25
Value - 2503.50 -> 2507.50
Globex - 2505.50 -> 2508.25

Settlement 2507.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1093 (permalink)
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2nd October

Santa rally imminent?



We are moving up again. Watching the old range high at 07.50 on any pullback. Not huge volume on the moves up though.



So far overnight, we have held last weeks high. That is going to be a reference point for us but I'm looking for more below as it looks like it's about to break.



If we do push down. we should also look at 09.25 on any moves back.

Plan

- Long bias
- As usual - look to see if the
- Ideally would like to see a move down fail around 07.50-09.25 and buyers to come in
- Overall more focused on volatility coming in than direction. If it is slow like many days last week or if we get some more swingy action.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2517
Value - 2494 -> 2506
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2504.75-> 2517
Value - 2510.25 -> 2516.25
Globex - 2517 -> 2523.50

Settlement 2516

Today only - 2507.50, 2509.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1094 (permalink)
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3rd October



We did move up as expected yesterday but it was still a very thick market and it was pretty sluggish.



We still held the week high yesterday, no real help the weekly profiles 'cause we are nowhere near last weeks range at the moment!



Yesterday we opened close to the overnight low and it was rejected, which is always nice. Overnight we have moved up again. Maybe we'll see the day retracing the overnight action again. No reason to be bearish....

Yesterday we had this:


Quoting 
- Long bias
- As usual - look to see if the
- Ideally would like to see a move down fail around 07.50-09.25 and buyers to come in
- Overall more focused on volatility coming in than direction. If it is slow like many days last week or if we get some more swingy action.

And I feel the same again today... it's nice to have a bias but it's the volatility that's key at the moment - or lack of it...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2517
Value - 2494 -> 2506
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2517 / 2517.50 -> 2526.75
Value - 2521 -> 2525
Globex - 2525.50 -> 2529.50

Settlement 2526.25

Today only - 2507.50, 2509.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1095 (permalink)
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4th October



Still creeping up. Still no reason to sell.



As per the previous day, we spend most of the day retracing the overnight action. A choppy day session. Volume was below 900k.



Overnight is very narrow.

So same deal again today

Plan
- Overall long bias
- lack of volatility is getting in the way, so early trades, patience or even dropping to a more volatile index (Nasdaq/Dow) might be in order
- The regular day trader levels have been ok the past few days, so an eye on the as fade levels if volatility is low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2417 -> 2533.50
Value - 2518.75 -> 2529.75
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2525.50/ 2525.75 -> 2532.50
Value - 2526 -> 2529.50
Globex - 2530.75 -> 2533.50

Settlement 2532.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1096 (permalink)
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5th October



Another low volatility day yesterday. 9 point range, just under 1M traded and a little headway to the upside.



This looks like a typical trend profile - consolidate, move, consolidate, move. So to keep moving up, we don't want to break the consolidation zone below us. It's not far away which makes it a bit suspect but eyes on 2530 anyway.



Same deal yesterday - down to test a common reference point (overnight low) and then a move up. Not an easy trade to keep hold of though.

Plan
- Overall long bias
- lack of volatility is getting in the way, so early trades, patience or even dropping to a more volatile index (Nasdaq/Dow) might be in order
- The regular day trader levels have been ok the past few days, so an eye on the as fade levels if volatility is low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2517 -> 2538
Value - 2535.50 -> 2537
S1 - 2494.75, R1 - 2527.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2529 -> 2538
Value - 2532.75 -> 2537.25
Globex - 2534.50 -> 2537

Settlement 2536.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1097 (permalink)
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10th October



Holiday yesterday but still not a bad day. Over 700k traded. So we'll treat it like a regular day.

Overall we've had a move up and I wouldn't be surprised to see us settle into a range here now.



Looking below, 2536.75 is worth keeping an eye on from last week as there's a big step there.



Overnight we've held yesterdays value range, so no new information. we look set to open in yesterdays range, so the first order of the day is to watch how we react to the value/price extremes.

Plan
- Overall long bias
- Expecting to settle into a range at some point - so watching for where that might be happening
- will look for an early trade, then at the day extremes
- a wait & see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2517 -> 2550.25
Value - 2527.50 -> 2550
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2550
Value - 2542.50-> 2547
Globex - 2543 -> 2547.25

Settlement 2543.75
Today only - 2536.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1098 (permalink)
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11th October



I'm marking out a potential range here, not because I have a crystal ball but because that's what we've been doing of late and we have just had one of the most substantial pops for a while. So it's better to be on the lookout for a range. If it doesn't hold, no problem - but let's keep in that frame of mind. I have my eye on 34.25->53.50 as potential range.



Weekly profile so far shows a concentration of trade between 43 and 50. I am not going to get involved in the middle of that unless it's a trade off the open.



Yesterday we ended up where we opened but it was more of a normal speculator driven day. We tagged overnight high vol area, then moved up. That moved failed, we went to overnight low and bounced up, that failed and we headfaked (or bottomfaked) through the day low and went up from there.

The key here is that the ES is playing it's normal dance and not doing what it did in October which was that very slow churn with low volatility and low expectation. This is a good thing, hopefully it'll continue to do this, so eyes on the volatility.

We closed 3 ticks above the prior closed - but moved around a lot in the process - happy days.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- No trade between 44 & 50 after the early trade
- looking for action at the usual day trader levels but with no real directional bias until we get to 3425 or 53.50,


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2539.25 -> 2553.50
Value - 2545 -> 2549
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2542.75 -> 2553.25
Value - 2544.75 -> 2548.75
Globex - 2545 -> 2549.75

Settlement 2548.50

Today only - 2534.25, 2543, 2553.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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  #1099 (permalink)
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12th October



Volume dropped off yesterday, a narrow day at the highs, not much interest at all. We did grind up - but just within the range. Now we are at the top of the range, we are looking to roll over.



As per yesterday, this is a very evenly distributed profile, so we expect to trade around it.



A grind up but within a tight range, so really a directionless day. Early trade was on yesterday but I got shaked out of it (publicly, which is always nice). Will look for it today again.


Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Wanting to see a rollover from here to confirm the range
- No trade between 44 & 50 after the early trade
- looking for action at the usual day trader levels but with no real directional bias until we get to 3425 or 53.50,

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2539.25 -> 2553.25
Value - 2544.50 -> 2549.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers
Range - 2544.25 / 2546 -> 2553.25
Value - 2548 -> 2551
Globex - 2548.50 -> 2553

Settlement 2553

Today only - 2534.25, 2543, 2553.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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  #1100 (permalink)
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13th Jan

Friday the 13th. Superstitious people should just switch off the PC... for those of use willing to risk a flash crash....



Still at the top. We have built some positions here, hopefully enough to give us a nice pop when it breaks. Fridays tend to stay within range more often than breaking it though.



Not much needs to be said - been in a range, profile looks like a range...



Still observing the usual levels. Yesterday we went to overnight low, reversed up to prior days high and back down. A day driven by short term speculation where we ended close to where we started. Lovely.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Wanting to see a rollover from here to confirm the range
- No trade between 44 & 50 after the early trade
- looking for action at the usual day trader levels but with no real directional bias

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2539.25 -> 2553.25
Value - 2545 -> 2550.50
S1 - 2524.75, R1 - 2558

Daily Numbers

Range - 2546.25 -> 2553.25
Value - 2549.25 -> 2552.75
Globex - 2547 -> 2555.50

Settlement 2549.50

Today only - 2534.25, 2543, 2553.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25, 2507.50

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