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DTs Pre Market Prep

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24th April



A gap up overnight - so I'm now biased towards a move to the high of the range.



First order of the day - is whether we fall back and fill the gap. Other than that, we are in the middle of the overall range, so not expecting a one-way day.



Gap fill targets are potentially at 2353 (to Fridays high) or 2358.25 (last weeks high)

Plan
- Careful during the first few minutes. It could be volatile at the open
- Shorts below the overnight low with targets to 58.25 and 53
- Longs on high volume moves up, but only after the first 15 mins

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2322.75 -> 2358.25
Value 2333.25 -> 2348.75
S1 - 2331.25, R1 - 2360.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2340.50 / 2353 -> 2356
Value - 2345 -> 2350
Globex 2365.25 -> 2374

Settlement 2373.75

Today - 2353, 2358.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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25th April



We managed to hold the gap up yesterday but didn't do much else. So today we are looking for the same things - the gap to fill in or to see buyers come in and take us up to 2400.



The weekly profiles aren't much use today, apart from highlighting the gap.



The daily profiles show we've stayed in the overnight range from Sunday 65.25 -> 76.75. This is (obviously) how range weeks start. Any trades in the middle of the range are likely to be tricky and that area will be more toxic the more days we stay there. So for now, watching the extremes for a break and playing back into the range if it doesn't break.

Plan
- low expectation day
- Try to take a trade off the open as there may not be much opportunity later on
- Look to trade the extremes of the range. Continuations outside the range only on high volume
- Be wary of headfakes - absorption on offer side 4-8 ticks through the high (bid side through the low)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2322.75 -> 2358.25
Value 2333.25 -> 2348.75
S1 - 2331.25, R1 - 2360.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2365.25 /2365.75 -> 2374 / 2376.75
Value - 2345 -> 2350
Globex 2368.25 -> 2375

Settlement 2370

Today - 2353, 2358.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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26th April



Almost at 2400, so expecting it to roll over at some point back to the low of the range. If it does break through, I'll wait for a pullback to the top of the range before being long biased again.



We pushed up again yesterday and are now building volume above. So we have 2 distributions. Watching both the low of the upper distribution (2382.75) and the high of the lower distribution (2375) as potential support points. Note that if 82.75 does break, we could get to 75 very quickly as we didn't trade much between those prices.



The 82.75 area is significant so far overnight and I'd also keep an eye on 2380 on any moves down.

Plan
===
- We are at the top of the range, so the roll could come any time.
- Watch 2382.75, 2380 and 2375 for a hold on any moves down
- Once past 75 to the downside, look for more aggressive selling towards the range low
- Cautious long above 2400 as the range is complete

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2365.25 -> 2389.25
Value 2365.25 -> 2379.25
S1 - 2331.25, R1 - 2360.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2368.25 /2377.50 -> 2389.25
Value - 2382.75 -> 2386.75
Globex 2382.25 -> 2386.26

Settlement 2385

Today - 2382.25, 2380, 2375

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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Holiday here, so no prep!

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2nd May



We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



Yesterday was a low volume day with most of Europe closed. So while trying not to read too much into that - we did start the week trading around the bulk of last weeks action. Watching 79.25 and 88.50 and not too keen to trade in the middle.



A lot of overlap in recent sessions. So again, not looking to trade in the middle of it.

Plan
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 79.25 and 88.50 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2365.25 -> 2395.75
Value 2375.25 -> 2394.25
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2377 /2380.75 -> 2390.75
Value - 2384.25 -> 2389.25
Globex 2384.25 -> 2388.25

Settlement 2385.50

Today - 2379.25, 2388.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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3rd May



Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.

And we are in exactly the same state today! We traded the same area and settled 1 tick higher!



We can see that so far this week, we are still trading around the large distribution from last week. So again watching 79.25 and 88.50 and not too keen to trade in the middle.



Yesterday we were watching 88.50 (top of chop area) and we got to 88.75 before moving down. We never got to 79.25 to the downside. We got a short but not much more. A 7 point range and less than 1 million contracts traded. As such, I'm not looking for more levels to trade off - but feeling vindicated about sitting back and letting this play out.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 79.25 and 88.50 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2377 -> 2390.75
Value - 2382.50 -> 2387
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2381.75 -> 2388.75
Value - 2383 -> 2386.50
Globex 2381.25 -> 2386.25

Settlement 2385.75

Today - 2379.25, 2388.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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4th May



We are in the same spot as the past 2 days, so let's repeat.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



The range is widening, so I am looking at 2381.50 and 2387.25 as the extremes and not looking to do much within that.



Yesterday we had 79.25 as the chop low and we moved down to 75.50 before moving up, and now we are at the chop high (87.25 from above). So from this few days perspective we could roll down any time but a push up and a roll wuold be nicer for us in terms of potential to the downside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 81.50 and 87.25 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2375.50 -> 2390.75
Value - 2382 -> 2387
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2386 / 2386.25
Value - 2379.25 -> 2383.25
Globex 2381.25 -> 2387

Settlement – 2383.25

Today - 2381.50, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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5th May



Well that week sucked. Certainly in terms of range but if you were watching the range and profiles, we actually had good opportunity on most days.

Let's just repeat the recap of where we are. It's been the same each day this week as we've been in the same place each day.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



The range filled out some more yesterday, so the chop zone is now 2381.25 to 2387



Yesterday we had the chop area at 2381.50 -> 2387.25. We opened and went 2 ticks through the high of the chop area before reversing down to 2381.25, 1 tick below the chop area. We then moved up. So those were our early opportunities. After that we had a drive down towards the weeks low, failed to get there and popped up again.

So while it was an ugly day, we had some good places to enter.

Today, same deal again - no trades between 81.50 and 87.25, presume the range is holding, be on the lookout for a break. Note though - that when we range like this all week - Friday is usually pretty poor.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 81.50 and 87.25 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2390.75
Value - 2381.75-> 2386.75
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2376 -> 2387.75 / 2390.75
Value - 2381.75 -> 2386.25
Globex 2379 -> 2387

Settlement 2385.50

Today - 2381.50, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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8th May



We are now at the top of the range, we haven't broken out and volume was low on Friday. No need to get too excited but this might be enough to finally wake up the market.

So one more time - a reminder of what we are looking for at the top.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



If we do push down as well as the old high, we should also be on the lookout where traded most last week. So eyes on 2387.25 if we move down.



We had a push up on Friday that has continued today. We may have rolled over already.

Plan
- At the top, now looking for volume to confirm a rollover or continuation
- Take an early trade as we may just move sideways 'undecided'
- Higher probability longs will be reacting to a pullback down to 2400 and 87.25
- Really a wait and see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2399.25
Value - 2381.25-> 2387.25
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2379 / 2385 -> 2395.75
Value - 2387 -> 2390.50
Globex 2392.25 -> 2403.75

Settlement 2397.75

Today - 2400, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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9th May



We are still 'tickling the top of the range'. Still waiting for a reaction in the market big enough for people to jump on board.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.

Yesterday we saw volume tail off again with less than 1 million contracts traded. Traders are there but they just aren't engaging at this point. We need some sort of event - either a price move or news event to give the market a nudge.



Here we have last weeks profile and Mondays profile, we need to escape Mondays range today or the market will be inclined to trade around it for the rest of the week. That's not necessarily a bad thing, so as we go into today we can look for shorts above 97 and longs below 93. If we break down, we can look for the market to hold the top of last weeks range.



Looking at the daily profiles, it does appear that we may have rolled over from the all time high. There's just not been enough volume traded to confirm this yet. If people were speculating that the top had held, we'd be seeing decent participation to the downside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Presume any pushes up are fake unless accompanied with significant volume
- downside moves could represent completion of the range above, be wary until we get past 87.25
- watch for a range around 93-97, fade the extremes but give room for the range to expand
- Early trades off the open would be good as we may lose volatility as the day progresses

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2399.25
Value - 2381.25-> 2387.25
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2389.75 -> 2397.75 / 2403.75
Value - 2392 -> 2395
Globex 2393 -> 2396.25

Settlement 2395

Today - 2400, 2387.25, 2393, 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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10th May



Its starting to look more like the market is rolling over. Volume is still weak at just over 1 million contracts.



We moved down to the top of the major distribution from last week (2387.25). So an eye on that area.



It's worth keeping an eye on yesterdays value low and low. If we are going to carry on down, then a move up off the open to a common level will help us on the way down.

Plan
- Slight short bias
- Looking for a move up to fail as the best opportunity of attracting downside volume
- We have moved up from 87.25 so far, so we may see speculators react to that
- So I'll let this play out for the first 15-20 minutes to see which way the wind blows


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2387.50 -> 2402.75
Value - 2392.75-> 2397.75
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2388.75 -> 2400
Value - 2393 -> 2398
Globex 2387.50 -> 2393.50

Settlement 2393.25

Today -2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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11th May



Looks like this top is going to remain unresolved for a whole longer. Less than a million contracts traded. Doesn't mean it's not tradable, just means you need to apply range market techniques.



We can see we moved down to the top of last weeks distribution and speculators didn't want to sell into it. So now focus is on this weeks distribution 88.50-97.50.



Very low range day yesterday. We need to escape the weeks range - that could happen today or in days time, impossible to know.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Look to fade 88.50 and 97.50
- better trade is a low volume push through 88.50 and 97.50 that then fails and sees price move back to the range
- On the lookout for a break which will be followed if it breaks with significant volume
- May take up knitting to avoid boredom trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2387.50 -> 2403.75
Value - 2392 -> 2397.50
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2387.50 / 2389.25 -> 2396.75
Value - 2392.25 -> 2396.25
Globex 2393 -> 2396

Settlement 2393.25

Today - 2395.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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12th May



We seem to be in the holding pattern at the top. Still waiting for clarity.



We are now back into last weeks chop area, so we'll expand our presumed chop area today to 2379.25 to 2397.75.
Normally I'd avoid trading in the middle of that but as it's a decent sized range I do thing longs for completion of the range up to 97.75 are valid.

]

Yesterday we saw decent volume 1.3 million and by the fact the market ended up where we started. So it looks like day timeframe speculators were active.

Very low range day yesterday. We need to escape the weeks range - that could happen today or in days time, impossible to know.

Plan
- Speculators more active yesterday, watch for healthy volume today
- Look to fade 2379.25 to 2397.75.
- Look for continuation up to 97.75
- No shorts between 79.25 to 97.75
- better trade is a low volume push through 88.50 and 97.50 that then fails and sees price move back to the range
- On the lookout for a break which will be followed if it breaks with significant volume
- May take up knitting to avoid boredom trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2403.75
Value - 2389.50 -> 2397
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2393.50 / 2396
Value - 2384 -> 2392.50
Globex 2384.25 -> 2392.50

Settlement – 2391

Today - 2379.25, 2397.75.

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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15th May



Still waiting for resolution at this top, still trading low volume. Considering the date, we could end up with low volume for a few months.

Taking a step back, it's worth considering how you adjust to this. You can move to a more volatile instrument or you can take advantage of these conditions. After all if the market is predictably slow, then trade it like a predictably slow market.


Last week was the second week where the market traded in a single narrow distribution. Into this week, I'll be looking at 2385 and 2397.75 as the places to fade. And expecting it to be tough in the middle



We have held Fridays value high overnight. So now looking for the range to complete to the upside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Still waiting for a break of the last few weeks range
- In the meantime, looking to fade 2385 & 2397.75 or headfakes beyond those areas

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2403.75
Value - 2388.50 -> 2397
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2384.25 -> 2389.75 / 2391.50
Value - 2385.75 -> 2388.25
Globex 2388 -> 2394.50

Settlement 2388.75

Today - 2385, 2397.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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16th May



Still at the top, still waiting for resolution, we moved back to the highs yesterday but couldn't make a new high. Overall volume as still quite poor.



Since the pop up we have managed to stay above the bulk of last weeks trading. For longs, we really need to hold this upper distribution, otherwise it's back to 2385, completion of the range to the downside.



Same picture here, we can see the pop up and then consolidation. If the consolidation area fails and we move down - we are back in the chop zone. If we move up, we have more chance of a pop.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Better chance of a pop if we move upside, will look for a pullback long on a move up with decent volume
- To the downside, we are at the top of the range, safest shorts below 96.50

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2403.75
Value - 2388.50 -> 2397
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers

Range - 2388 / 2392.25 -> 2402.25
Value - 2397.25 -> 2400.75
Globex 2396.25 -> 2400.25

Settlement 2398.50

Today - 2385, 2397.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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17th May



A tight range yesterday as expected we still have light volume at around a million contracts and still around the highs we made on Monday.

Today we've dropped but it's all on low Globex volume.




Overnight, we hit the low of last week and we are now within the main distribution from last week. Normally, I'd say that the upside is likely to be choppy but the way we ran right through the middle of the range overnight means we can't rely on that.

Downside has good potential from the 'sky is falling' crowd too. People love a good panic and if we can push down today we are likely to see speculators happy to participate to the downside.



A good push down overnight often sees a 'rebalance' upside off the open. If not traded, any opening move is best ignored. For me, today is all about how the market will react to this push down. It's now 3.5 hours to the open, so we have to see how far down we remain as we get into the open.

I think getting excited about the move down at this point is premature. We are likely to put in another slow rangey day.

Plan
- No expectation day! Looking to see if this move down will trigger any volatility
- There's arguments for decent volatility upside and downside today
- Will give the market 15 mins to 'settle' and then play accordingly

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2379.25 -> 2404.50
Value - 2389.50 -> 2402.50
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2393.75 -> 2404.50
Value - 2396.25 -> 2400.25
Globex 2379.25 -> 2398

Settlement 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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18th May



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Downside has good potential from the 'sky is falling' crowd too. People love a good panic and if we can push down today we are likely to see speculators happy to participate to the downside.

If we look at the overall volume yesterday, it was 2.8 million. This seems like a big jump to just be short term speculators. So on the lookout today for high volume as the day progresses. Not saying we must be in for a larger move, just be aware that volume was exceptional.

I still think that if we do move down we will probably just test the extreme of the range and move back up.



The weekly profile doesn't help much after yesterdays move.



yesterday finished with a the market marking out a late range 2354.75 to 2366.50. That's held overnight and we could quite easily revert to chop today and range around that.

Plan
- Let the volume guide
- Be wary that we may range around 54.75-66.50 - no trades between those prices unless off the open
- Any move outside that range to the downside will be followed (and maybe scaled into) if there is decent volume
- More wary of moves up above 66.50 and will proceed with more caution there

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2404.50
Value - 2372 -> 2404
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2383.75 / 2398
Value - 2362.50 -> 2375.50
Globex 2354.75-> 2367

Settlement 2347.50

Today only - 2354.75 - 2366.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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19th May



High volume yesterday again. We got more volatility but no direction. Interest may taper today if nothing much happens.



Weekly profile doesn't help much as it's so elongated. There's not much preventing us moving back to 75 - which is the around where the low of the 3 week range was before we broke down on Wednesday.



Overnight, we've just rotated around the range from yesterday afternoon.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Looking for trade below the weeks range to bring in sellers
- Otherwise biased long - first target 2375, then grind up to 2400 (but not necessarily all today)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2344.50 -> 2404.50
Value - 2345.75 -> 2389.75
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2344.50 / 2351.50 -> 2375.25
Value - 2358 -> 2369
Globex 2361 -> 2370.50

Settlement 2363.50

Today only - 2375

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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22nd May



Volume has been tailing off since the big down day last week. I still think that people will jump on any obvious signs of weakness. We are in the range still and last attempt to the low of the range fell short, so we should be on the lookout for signs of a failure before the range high.



Not much from the weekly profile - other than we are in the middle of last weeks range. Not a decisive location.



We had a late move down to 2378 on Friday - so an eye out for that. Other than that, we do have short term momentum upside but that's against the range high

Plan
- No bias, it's neutral
- Will jump on any obvious moves down (completion of the range upside)
- Other than that - looking for an early trade 'cause it really isn't the best location. Certainly no trades worth planning ahead to right now

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2344.50 -> 2404.50
Value - 2346.75 -> 2386.75
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2361 / 2369.75 -> 2388
Value - 2378.25 -> 2385.75
Globex 2378.25 -> 2385.25

Settlement – 2381.50

Today only - 2378

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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23rd May



We are now at the top of the range again. So on the lookout for a rollover/headfake or potential move to new highs and a new range.

As before...


Quoting 

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



From a weekly profile perspective, we still need to get past the top distribution - not really much of significance other that we can see this also puts us above the major distribution from the week before. So above 2401, there's nothing in terms of historical trade to 'slow us down'.



Yesterday was a very narrow day, yet with very decent volume. We do have upside momentum but against the range high. So no real bias.

Plan
- No bias but an open mind about where we could go - in particular keeping an open mind about the upside. It'll probably go down to the range low but we cannot discount a move to new highs. The trick is to play that as long as it's not a headfake.
- Early trades would be nice, especially if volatility carries over from yesterday.
- Otherwise, a wait and see for the range top to be resolved - then follow when it is

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2378.25 -> 2397.75
Value - 2380 -> 2391
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2385 -> 2394.25
Value - 2387.75 -> 2392.75
Globex 2386.75 -> 2397.75

Settlement 2392.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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24th May



Still at the top, still waiting for resolution...


Quoting 
Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



We have a very narrow upper distribution - what we dont want (but it most likely) is to rotate around and expand that distribution.



Volume was down to a million and as we can see, some upside progression has slowed.

Plan
- No bias. Patience key
- Looking for an early trade off the open
- Looking for the range to become obvious and then play off that
- Will follow a down move off the open, given yesterdays high has held so far

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2378.25 -> 2399.50
Value - 2387.50 -> 2399
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2386.75 / 2392 -> 2399.50
Value - 2395.50 -> 2398.50
Globex 2394.75 -> 2399.25

Settlement 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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25th May



We broke upside but overnight, so I'm still calling this 'unresolved'. The overnight moves are mostly as a result of a little craziness we saw in the markets (especially Crude) during the OPEC meetings.

Volume overall was low yesterday, so another reason not to buy into this spike up overnight.



Looking below, we can see the major distribution in the middle of this week tops out around 2399. So an eye on that if we move down.



Yesterday was very narrow but we did make some headway to the upside. We might take back the upside gains before the open, if not - be wary of a move down at the open.

Plan
- Watch for a move down off the open if we haven't taken back the overnight gains
- look for an early trade
- expecting low volatility until this top is resolved, no bias until that happens
- A wait and see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2378.25 -> 2412.50
Value - 2383.50 -> 2402
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2394.75 / 2396 -> 2404
Value - 2397.25 -> 2400.25
Globex 2401.25 -> 2412.50

Settlement – 2402

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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5th June

Sorry I was out last week - daughter got appendicitis and ended up in hospital...




Market is marching up - so bias is long but a pullback would be nice. Volume is high and so any breaks upside are worth following. I do expect it to revert to range and that could happen any time, so eyes on any drops in volume.



As we can see, the prior 2 weeks had major distribution topping out at 2417 and we've mad it to 2440 since then. Not a huge break and at this point it could just well be an extension of the old range, so I'd really like to see us make more headway towards 2500 this week. Then we can say the old range is probably broken and hopefully we'll have better behavior (more volatility) wherever we end up. My guess is - we'll get where we are going and revert to tight churny days again.



Not much happened overnight but we have held Fridays value low.

Plan
- Long Bias
- Looking for an early trade - not because there won't be much on later but because we have decent volatility and the opportunity may be there.
- Will watch Fridays range/value extremes - primarily looking for longs
- if we move down, watching for 2417 for a hold
- will trade both sides but just much more confident in scaling into a long. So shorts will be smaller trades unless we see huge volume on downside moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2402.75 -> 2439.75
Value - 2403.75 -> 2420.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2327 -> 2439.75
Value - 2432.50 -> 2439
Globex 2433 -> 2437

Settlement 2437.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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DionysusToast View Post
5th June

Sorry I was out last week - daughter got appendicitis and ended up in hospital...

Hope she's better now?

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Hope she's better now?

She's good now thanks!

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6th June



Well it is summer but ouch - what a drop in volume yesterday. I'm still looking for a drop to 2417 to hold but we really need to see some decent volume come in to take this onwards.




Not much to read into this other than there's little traded between here and 2417. Any push down could see us drop to 17 pretty quickly (and a break upside could also see us pop)



5.5 points. I think it's time to look for your summertime instrument if you can't trade the chop. We have pushed down overnight, so look for an initial reaction upwards off the open if we are still below yesterdays low at 9:30am EST.

Plan
- Low expectation in terms of volume, so....
- If we open below yesterdays range - look to short a move back to the low/value low
- Look for a pick up in pace on a moves down and scale in if it does (target 2417)
- For upside, unless we have a decent push down first, I'm looking for the high to break before going long
- If we do get good volume coming in - the game changes to following it but still not interested in engaging within yesterdays range


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2402.75 -> 2439.75
Value - 2403.75 -> 2420.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2433/2433.50 -> 2439
Value - 2436 -> 2438.50
Globex 2429.50 -> 2435.50

Settlement 2434.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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7th June



Volume was more respectable yesterday, Market was sideways with a decent opportunity off the open and into the close. Tough in the middle though.



We have expanded the volume profile and it's evenly distributed - which is indicative or rangebound trade.



A poor day yesterday but not bad technically. We traded down to the overnight low and we had absorption at the lows, then we moved up to the prior days value area, then we moved down from there. So observing typical day speculator zones. So a couple of our scenarios played out

Plan
- Very Low expectation day
- Looking for longs at or below 2429 and shorts at or above 2437.50 - will not trade in the middle
- will try for an early trade off the open
- also watching overnight hi/lo & yesterdays hi/low value area


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2426.25 -> 2439.25
Value - 2429.50 -> 2435.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2426.25 / 2427 -> 2435.75
Value - 2429.75 -> 2433.25
Globex 2428.25 -> 2433.25

Settlement 2430.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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15th June

Just spend a few days in Cambodia and Laos... now back to it... Note new levels below for September contract



We had some volatility this week, and we are now just above what I'd figure to be a weak support level. So eyes on 2416.25. Below that we have the top of the Feb-June range at 2396 - so an eye on 2396-2400.



From a daily chart perspective, it looks like we have good downside momentum. From the profile, we can see very evenly distributed trade. So the volume profile looks more set up for a range week.



We have moved down overnight, so first order of the day is to see if we can hold onto the move down

Plan
===
- a wait and see day - we are just above week support and the profile indicates rotation up - BUT we have downside momentum
- Any early moves up may just be rebalancing, so don't take much heat on any longs
- Either way - it does look set for decent volatility, so for me, I'll take a gamble on that. No early trades and look to follow momentum

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.75 -> 2443.25
Value - 2423.25 -> 2439.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2425.75 -> 2442 / 2443.25
Value - 2432.75 -> 2439.25
Globex 2418.25 -> 2435.50

Settlement 2435.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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16th June



Yesterday played out as expected we hit the minor support and turned up towards the top of the range we'd marked on the profile. Volume was good 1.8 million.



We've moved up to the topmost distribution and stalled for now.



Yesterday day session did see us moving up but just within the range. The thing I got wrong about yesterday was saying I'd avoid the early trade and an absolute beauty set up....

Plan
- looking for a roll anywhere from here 2436-38.25, above that looking for the top of the week to be tested.
- will be looking primarily for a run downside to be initiated
- only interested in longs above the weeks range
- will take the early trade if it sets up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.25 -> 2443.25
Value - 2419.25 -> 2434.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2416.25 -> 2432 / 2435.50
Value - 2422.50 -> 2430.50
Globex 2429.75 -> 2436.75

Settlement – 2436.25

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19th June



Starting the week in the middle of the past few weeks range. It's early here, so the overnight session hasn't developed much.



Looking at this - the upper distribution tapers off around 2438 and lower around 2419. So fade trades possible around those areas.

The range spans 2 weeks, it'll break at some point - but this year we have sat in ranges for an extended periods, so presumption is rangebound. This range is big enough that we can wait for the hold before jumping in.



From a daily perspective, we have gapped up and are now 5 points above settlement. We are climbing away from yesterdays range, and just a couple of points from 2438.


Plan

- Low expectation day
- Look for an early trade off the open
- Expect rangebound behavior and fades around 2438 and 2419
- Saying that, we have gapped up, so we can't discount a break of the range the the upside
- If we do continue upwards away from Fridays day session high, take a 'go with' trade above 2438
- Look for any sign of a hold on a pullback down to Fridays high/value high

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.75 -> 2443.25
Value - 2419.50 -> 2434.25
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2420.25 -> 2432.50 / 2436.75
Value - 2423.25 -> 2429.25
Globex 2432.75 -> 2436.50

Settlement 2431

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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20th June



New all time highs yesterday. Volume was 1.3 million - pretty average. As you can see - we pushed up but it's not much of a move away from the overall range... so let's zoom in....




I'd normally be looking for a pullback to test the top of the old range - which we can define as somewhere between 37.50 and 43.25. Still - it's not much of a pullback, so I may be trying to force my method onto the market here.

Bottom line is we need to figure out today if this is just range extension and we will drop back into dead trading or if we are marching up to newer highs. We do expect moves and then consolidation in an overall move up but we also expect a decent gap between consolidation areas. When the gaps are no longer significant, we have to consider we may be due a longer term retracement. It's too early to tell now - but bear it in mind as we progress.



From a profile perspective we have the upper distribution from last week topping out around 2438. In line with the 37.50-43.24 area above.



After moving up yesterday, we consolidated 44.75 -> 50.75. That area is holding overnight. It may be there won't be a downside test as this zone has held.

Plan
- Early trade is on
- Look to play any move up from here based on the 44.75-50.75 consolidation zone holding
- On moves down, look for a hold at 37.50->43.25 to play long
- No trades between 43.25 - > 50.75 with the exception of an open trade
- Below 37.50, consider a move back into the range and a move back to 2418 (not all in one day though)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.75 -> 2443.25
Value - 2419.50 -> 2434.25
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2432.75 / 2438.50 -> 2451.50
Value - 2445.25 -> 2449.75
Globex 2447.50 -> 2451

Today only - 37.50-> 43.25, 44.75-50.75

Settlement 2447.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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21st June



Now we are back into the range so expecting us to move to 16.25 where we'll likely move up and continue in this range. Not 100% certainty of course, it's just my hypothesis going in.



Not too much to read into the profiles, we are well and truly in the old range, hence me thinking it's an extension.



Looking closer, I'll be watching yesterdays range/value range - you can see the value low has held overnight, so I'm also going to look at 42.75 - the late pullback yesterday as potential resistance.

Plan
- Short bias but not married to it
- Early trade is on
- Market gapped down, if we open down, we may see an initial rebalance up off the open - be wary of any moves up as they may not last
- Saying that we dropped 20 points yesterday, so a snap back is possible - so longs on high volume
- Watching value low/42.75 on any moves up - but will join any move down, even on average volume


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2429.25 -> 2451.50
Value - 2436.50 -> 2450
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2434 -> 2446.5 / 2451
Value - 2437.75 -> 2443.25
Globex 2429.25 -> 2438

Today only - 42.75

Settlement 2437.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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22nd June



Now back into the range from the past few weeks. So expecting a lazy trip to test the bottom of the range - 2416. Not necessarily in one day though.



Not much to see here - we do have 3 distinct distributions last week and where we have gone overnight is just to the top of the bottom distribution. That gives us a weak case for moving upside from here.



Yesterday day session was flat, all the move down was in the prior overnight session. We are still in that range. So I'm wary of us getting stuck between 28-38 today.

Plan
- Bias still short overall, low expectations today
- Early trade is on
- No trades between 28-38
- For shorts - will be looking to fade 38 or wait for a break below 27
- No real plan for longs as we are still in the middle of the overall range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2429.50 -> 2442
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2434 -> 2446.5 / 2451
Value - 2437.75 -> 2443.25
Globex 2429.25 -> 2438

Today only - 28/38

Settlement 2433.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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23rd July



Expectations were low yesterday and we weren't disappointed. A slow first 90 mins then a break up and another range before a breakdown in the afternoon. We had a "no trade between 28-38" rule and the range was 30-39.



The lower distribution is now 29.50-> 39.25. I'm still not interested in the middle of that.



Pretty much the same picture here.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Look for a trade off the open as it is likely to die after that
- Range trades at 29.50, 39.25
- Looking for a break of this range for a stop run and possible longer term trade - but not really expecting that to happen on a Friday
- If nothing happens by 11am - going to call it quits!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2429.50 -> 2439.50
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2428 / 2430 -> 2439
Value - 2433.25 -> 2438.75
Globex 2431 -> 2435

Today only - 29.50, 39.25

Settlement 2434.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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June 26th



Still in the range - so still on range fades until it breaks. Volume was low on Friday - reflecting a lack of interest and indicator more time in the range.



Last weeks major distribution was 2429.50 -> 2439 but the top image here shows the bottom of the range closer to 2416.



We are at the top of the range now - the last extension up went to 2451.50 which turned out to be a heafake. If we go there and roll over again, we'll consider that as the new range high.

Plan
- Another low expectation day
- Look for an early trade
- We are at the range high in terms of recent action - look for a roll back down to 29/16 anywhere from here
- Not interested in longs unless we get over 2150 as the chance of any extension of the range up being a headfake is high. Exception would be if a retrace down to Fridays high/value high held (2438) and we lifted from there.
- Interested in shorts anywhere between here and 2150.
- Prepared not to make any trades today

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2430 -> 2439
S1 - 2425 R1 - 2448.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2428.25 -> 2438.75
Value - 2432.50 -> 2438
Globex 2430.25 -> 2441.25

Settlement 2440.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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27th June



Back in the range,not a terrible day yesterday because we probed outside the range, failed to extend and fell back in and got a 13 point drop. As per yesterdays plan, we were interested in shorts anywhere from 41 to 51. A big range but we have to play the had we are dealt. As it was the rollover was fairly obvious by the time we got down to 46.25 off the 47.50 high. Not selling the top but also not taking a lot of heat...



The bottom of the overall range is 2416 but we seem to be honoring the lower distribution from last week which is more like 29. So while longs at 29 are ok - I think we have to be aware that this could break and we'd still be holding the longer term range.



After the drop yesterday, we ranged 35.25-> 41.50 (ish). We want to see that hold and for us to push down for good downside trades and a possible break of 29.

The problem we have is that we aren't that far off 29, so from a range completion standpoint we are possibly done to the downside in relation to that large distribution last wee. The top of the longer term range isn't that far off either. So today, we aren't looking at great trade location at all. So a trade off the open might be the best deal. If we can break last weeks low we have a clearer picture of a range completed to the upside and traversing to it's low.

Small, overlapping ranges - pain in the rear...

Plan
- Looking for an early trade
- Shorts below 35.25 - caution on short into 29
- Will go short below 29 too with a view to getting to 16-18
- Not sure about the long side at the moment - but as per yesterday I don't want to be long into the highs

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2430 -> 2439
S1 - 2425 R1 - 2448.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2430 / 2434 -> 2447.50
Value - 2435.50 -> 2441.50
Globex 2432.25 -> 2437.25

Settlement 2434

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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28th June



Hopefully readers of the log weren't too shocked that 29 held initially, then when we broke it later, we went to 16.... (pats self on the back and does victory laps around the trading desk)

So now at the bottom of the range, if we lift, we can presume range is holding and that participation to the long side back to the top of the range will be healthy. The best scenario for us is that the range breaks as that should give us more volatility.

So bottom of the range - be ware of extensions and false breakouts and then play it when it's clearly resolved....

If it does break down my target is the older range top 2395.

For those that don't know - the headfake would be a push below 16 and then absorption on the bid side 4-8 ticks below the break where sellers get trapped, then a swift move back into the range.



We can see that we are still in the large distribution from 2 weeks ago. We like trading here, so we can't necessarily expect any upside move to be a "pop" - it's back towards 41 if we do move up but it may be choppy,.



We can see the extended move when 29 broke, which is what we'd expect on the break of any range.

Plan
- No bias - waiting for the range low to be resolved on way or the other
- Will buy a headfake to the downside but with a tight stop while still trying to avoid traps at such a visually obvious area
- Basically looking for volume away from the 16 area on either side to take a "go with" trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.25 -> 2447.50
Value - 2429.25 -> 2442.75
S1 - 2425 R1 - 2448.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2416.50 -> 2437 / 2437.25
Value - 2424.50 -> 2437
Globex 2415.25 -> 2421

Settlement 2420.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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3rd July

Today isn't the best day to trade with the 4th July holiday tomorrow, volume will likely be quite low.



Still stuck in this range, so still looking to play range trades. That means a long bias till the top has been tested.



The weekly profile doesn't help us much - its pretty evenly distributed.



The daily profiles show us danger of getting caught in the 2418-2429 range. Just keep an eye on this - we may trade within it today as we are expecting low participation. It's more Wednesday that we'll have to be wary of it spoiling the whole week.

Plan
- low expectation day with holidays tomorrow
- look for an early trade
- play the long side if we can get above 29
- expect downside breaks to be headfakes

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2402.25 -> 2447.50
Value - 2415.75 -> 2437.26

Daily Numbers
Range - 2414.75 / 2418.50 -> 2429.75
Value - 2419.50 -> 2425.50
Globex 2421.50 -> 2429.75

Settlement 2421

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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5th July



Still in the range, lows have been tested, so presumption is for us to move to opposite end of the range.



As per Monday - last weeks profile is very even and this weeks contains a pre-holiday and a holiday day.



Again - not much to see here because of the holiday.

Holiday weeks are tough because the history of prior days isn't that reliable as the actual amount of trade is so low and we can reasonably expect that swingers didn't leave so many trades on over the holiday period. We need volume to return, that could happen today or it could take a few days to recover.

Plan
- Not much to play off because of the holiday
- Looking for an early trade and an overall long bias, expecting the range to hold
- Other that that it's a wait and see day - wait and see if real volume comes in and where it wants to take us.

No levels today as they aren't that relevant being on such low volume.

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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6th July



We are having trouble lifting off the lows. Volume was still a bit low yesterday at 1.2M contracts. On the lookout for more volume coming in today, sort of presuming we had the 4th July 'hangover' yesterday and some traders still on vacation.



An ugly profile so far this week - indicating that we may continue to range 2423-2430.



Same picture here - in a narow range short term.

Plan
- Looking for an early trade
- Still biased upside overall for range completion upside
- No trades between 2423 and 2430 - looking to fade those prices
- Will take continuations outside of 23-30 only if volume picks up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2419.25 -> 2436.50
Value - 2424 -> 2429.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2419.15 -> 2432.25
Value - 2426 -> 2431.50
Globex 2423.50-> 2430.50

Settlement – 2428

Today only - 2423/2430

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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7th July



We pushed through the bottom of the range with high volume (1.8M). Last time we had a high volume move through the bottom of our range we bounced back up. So today looking to see if this is a headfake or not.



Above us we have high volume at 2423, so wary if you are long into that area.



The day session dropped less than 20 points. So not a huge sell off. This makes me more inclined to think we'll go back into the range.

Plan
- No bias
- Watching to see if we revert to the range or continue down
- looking for an early trade
- after that, looking to follow the volume, short below yesterdays low (2405.25) and longs above the old range low (2416.75)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2405.25 -> 2436.50
Value - 2419.75 -> 2431.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2405.25 -> 2422 / 2430.50
Value - 2412.25 -> 2420.25
Globex 2407.50-> 2411.75

Settlement 2408.50

Today only - 2416.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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11th July



Still working up slowly towards the top of our range. Volume was extremely low yesterday, less than 900k contracts. Possibly the summer slowdown and possibly just the fact we are in them middle of a fairly old range and there's a lack of interest generally.



So far this week, we are trading around the major distribution from last week (2423 - 2430.25).



We still had a 10.5 point range yesterday. Not too bad and upward progression. Right now we are in the middle of the range though.

Plan
- Long bias - looking for range to complete upside (2443.25)
- Looking for an early trade
- Look for fade trades at 2423 (down to yesterdays low 2419), 2430.25, otherwise proceed with caution as we are in a choppy area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2405.25 -> 2436.50
Value - 2418.25 -> 2431.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2419.25 -> 2430
Value - 2424-> 2430
Globex 2422.50-> 2427.75

Settlement 2424.50

Today only - 2423, 2430.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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13th July



Back to the top of the range, so now looking for the market to roll over and head back to the bottom of the range. Looking for headfakes on any push up through the top of the range and long only on high volume moves.



Looking at the weekly profile, the lower distribution tops out around 2429, so caution if we are short going in to 29 as it may hold.



We do have an upper distribution and so if volume is low, we may just spin around the top here before the market decides if it wants to drop back into the range or move to new highs.

Plan
- Simple day - watching for the usual pushing and shoving at the extreme of the range, looking to get on board only when direction has become clear.
- continuations up only on high volume
- patience is key - volume yesterday was only 770k contracts, which favors the range holding but also favors not much happening
- Careful short into 29 and long from there if it holds

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2446.50
Value - 2417.25 -> 2429.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2422.50 / 2434.75 -> 2443.75
Value - 2438.50 -> 2442.50
Globex 2439.525 -> 2446.50

Settlement 2440

Today only - 2429

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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14th July



Low volume, still at the top of the range. We've pushed through it but not as much as the prior pushes through. Right now, there is no reason to think we'll make another push up to new highs. Trading will be tricky till this area is resolved one way or the other.



We are building an upper distribution from 39-46 so we can look at fade=ing those prices short term while waiting for the overall range to be resolved.



The daily charts aren't much help other than to confirm the narrow range.

Plan
- Simple day - watching for the usual pushing and shoving at the extreme of the range, looking to get on board only when direction has become clear.
- Try to get on board with an early trade
- look for fade trades around 39 and 46
- continuations up only on high volume
- patience is key still
- Careful short into 29 and long from there if it holds

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2447.25
Value - 2413.25 -> 2441.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2439 -> 2447
Value - 2442.25 -> 2446.25
Globex 2442.50 -> 2447.25

Settlement 2445.50

Today only - 2429, 2439, 2446

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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17th July



A break to the upside - but on really low volume. We did break to new all time highs but on low volume. That has me leaning towards a fall back to the range. Still - all options are on the table and having a hard bias never makes for good trades, to the plan for Monday is to look for signs of whether we'll continue up or fall back into the range and play accordingly.



The upper distribution from last week tops out around 46. So if we do move down, we may find support there.



Monday will be a day to also watch for the usual daily levels - high/low/val/vah. Any decent retrace to a common level that holds should bring in buyers and a move we can jump on.

Plan
- No bias - waiting for signs we'll have another push up or if we'll fall back to the range
- will go long on any retracement to a common level
- would prefer shorts below Fridays low but will jump short moves
- a day for waiting for clarity and not jumping at shadows

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2461.25
Value - 2413.25 -> 2442.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2442 /2444.25 -> 2461.25
Value - 2447 -> 2457
Globex (prep done before globex open)

Settlement 2445.50

Today only - 2456

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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18th July



We have move up a little - but I still see this as "top of range unresolved". We didn't move much and volume is low. So it's not as if we can say it's a clear break at this point. I still favor a fall back into the range - but I am not putting money on that. I'll just wait for resolution and trade the resulting move.



Not much yet from the weekly profile. The upper distribution from last week tops out around 46. So if we do move down, we may find support there.



This does look like a range week setting up. So I'm watching yesterdays range/value for cues. If we look at yesterday - the overnight range held, so a technical day but a choppy one. Overnight we've pretty much stayed in the range.

Plan
- No bias - waiting for signs we'll have another push up or if we'll fall back to the range
- will fade common levels today (yday hi/lo, yday value, overnight hi/low).
- other than that, waiting for a break to jump on
- looking for headfakes on any breaks out of the small range we've marked so far this week. Very cautious on taking continuation trades with this low volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2461.25
Value - 2413.25 -> 2442.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2454 /2454.25 -> 2460.50
Value - 2456.25 -> 2459.25
Globex 2454.25 -> 2460.50
Settlement 2458.50

Today only - 2456

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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19th July

An early prep again as I'm off to Lego Land tomorrow. That's about as exciting as it gets on Planet Peter Davies....



We are staying above the old range but volume is dropping, so I still see us as being in the same situation - "top of range unresolved". Still waiting to see if we'll drop into the range or push to new highs. I favor the former but will trade when it's clear.



The weekly profile shows us trading around the weeks range. The range wont hold forever and any initial move out might of this weeks range shouldn't have us jumping on that as a sustained move - especially if we break the weeks range upside - it may falsely appear to have the energy to continue up.



We has a push down through Mondays range but it was just a headfake down and we reverted to the range. Basically what we were on the lookout for in the prep yesterday...


Quoting 
- looking for headfakes on any breaks out of the small range we've marked so far this week. Very cautious on taking continuation trades with this low volume

Plan
- No bias - waiting for signs we'll have another push up or if we'll fall back to the range
- will fade common levels today (yday hi/lo, yday value, overnight hi/low).
- other than that, waiting for a break to jump on
- looking for headfakes on any breaks out of the small range we've marked so far this week. Very cautious on taking continuation trades with this low volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448 -> 2461
Value - 2455 -> 2459.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2454 /2454.25 -> 2460.50
Value - 2456.25 -> 2459.25
Globex 2454.25 -> 2460.50

Settlement 2458.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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20th July



An interesting day yesterday - we've had a decent push up, on low volume but still better volume than the prior days. It was also a fairly small range day. So it's still a bit of a coin toss. I'd like to see a pullback but will have to follow any moves up if they occur as that's the direction of the market. I see it as weak upside but I can't fight it.

First place I'll be looking for a pullback is the high of the prior few days around 61.25 and below that the old high at 43.25.



From a profile perspective, we also have a distribution below us with a top around 60.00. So watching that on a pullback too.



On the daily charts, I'll also be looking at yesterdays value area (which has held overnight) as well as the highs/lows from the day session and overnight.

Plan
- Long bias
- Would like to see a pullback to 60-61.25, 43.25 or a common level
- If no pullback, will try to scale into a position on the long side off any backstop in the order flow that appears
- For short side, I'll take a short only on a major shift in delta and decent downside volume
- Overall, I really want the market to show it's hand before engaging today

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448 -> 2472
Value - 2454 -> 2460.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2457.75 /2461.25 -> 2471
Value - 2463.50 -> 2469
Globex 2469.25-> 2472

Settlement – 2471.50
Today only - 43.25, 60-61.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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24th July



We have a minor potential support level at 2461.75 - so eyes on that over the next few hours. If it holds, then I think we should see some decent upside participation (for the time of year). If not - I'll be watching the high of the old range for a hold and if that fails, bias goes short with expectation of a move to low 2400's.



The weekly profile shows we are between 2 nodes. 2460 below and 2470 above. Looking for a test of either of these areas to hold too. Again, waiting for the hold and then the following participation for a momentum play in the short term.



We have pretty much held Fridays low overnight, which is neutral and pointing towards range day.

Overall , we have a few nearby technical levels to play off, which might give us a short term bounce. Other than that, not really seeing much in terms of a longer term play. Volume is low after the break up and moves are fairly weak. So a short term game today.

Plan
- slight upside bias
- look for a trade off the open and watch out for chop after
- watch the technical levels - overnight high, yesterdays high/low, value high/low, 2460, 2461.75, 2460
- go with any bounces off those levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448-> 2476.50
Value - 2451.50 -> 2470

Daily Numbers
Range - 2462.75 /2470.25 -> 2475.25
Value - 2465 -> 2469
Globex 2463.75-> 2470.50

Settlement – 2469.75

Today only - 2460, 2461.75, 2470

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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25 July

An early prep 'cause I have to go to the Thai Embassy in London tomorrow AM...



Not much happened yesterday, no new prices discovered.... so for todays prep - we could read yesterdays...


Quoting 
We have a minor potential support level at 2461.75 - so eyes on that over the next few hours. If it holds, then I think we should see some decent upside participation (for the time of year). If not - I'll be watching the high of the old range for a hold and if that fails, bias goes short with expectation of a move to low 2400's.



From yesterday too...


Quoting 
The weekly profile shows we are between 2 nodes. 2460 below and 2470 above. Looking for a test of either of these areas to hold too. Again, waiting for the hold and then the following participation for a momentum play in the short term.



Yesterday we were looking to play as a technical day and in the end we held the overnight high and low. We also got a decent first leg off the open. So it was what we wanted to see.

We could be starting a range week in which case, looking for headfakes at the extremes as we test Mondays range. I still have the same overall opinion.

Plan
- slight upside bias
- look for a trade off the open and watch out for chop after
- watch the technical levels - overnight high, yesterdays high/low, value high/low, 2460, 2461.75, 2460
- go with any bounces off those levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448-> 2476.50
Value - 2451.50 -> 2470

Daily Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2470.50
Value - 2465.50 -> 2469
Globex - too early to note levels

Settlement 2469.50

Today only - 2460, 2461.75, 2470

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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26th July



Low volume still, we did push up through the top of this little range we've been in the last 5 days. This is a very tight range but then we are heading into August. It's not very clear and the danger is reading too much into the action.



We have 2 distributions for the week but really it's such a small range that it's not worth considering them separate. We do have to look out at 2472 for a reaction as we didn't spend much time there but it's also the middle of the weeks range so not a great spot. So I'll want to see something fairly obvious before trading any reaction from that point.



We can see that we popped up overnight yesterday and then went sideways. It's FOMC day today which means it's likely to be low volatility in the morning.

Plan
- Look for an early trade right off the open as FOMC malaise might kick in
- Look for reactions in the AM off yesterdays levels and 72 but look for something quite obvious
- Be prepared not to have much on in the AM, which means there might not be any trades
- Flat into FOMC and see if we can take a momentum move off it (although we are not expecting any surprises)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.50 -> 2478.75
Value - 2463.75 -> 2473.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.25 /2472.50 -> 2478.25
Value - 2475 -> 2478
Globex - 2472 ->2476.75

Settlement 2474

Today only - 2472

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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27th July



We didn't get a boost from the FOMC, volume was about 1 million and we just traded the prior days range yesterday.



The upper distribution is growing out and holding. We'll be looking for this to hold, fade the extremes 2473 & 2478.75.



Not much to say other that Wednesday was same as Thursday

Plan

- Look for an early trade as it will probably revert to chop
- Look for signs of the short term range holding, fades at or beyond 2473 & 78.75
- This range is small and will break at some point, so the key is to avoid getting trapped while fading the range
- Look also at the usual tech levels overnight high/low, yesterdays high/low, yesterdays value area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.50 -> 2480.25
Value - 2468 -> 2479.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2471.50 -> 2478.50 / 2479.75
Value - 2474 -> 2477
Globex - 2473.25 ->2480

Settlement 2473.25

Today only - 2473 & 78.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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28th July



A push down yesterday, so we broke the 2 day range but we are now back and testing the 7 day low, which is minor support (2461.50). Volume was decent which means there's people still around, even if there's not much for them to trade.



The volume profile shows a lower distribution this week, which tapers off around 2464. So above that I'm presuming we are going to travel back towards the weeks highs.



yesterday was a 24 point range which felt bigger because of recent low volatility. Looking to see if we can follow through with that volatility today.

Plan
- Longs above 64 (to top of range), Shorts below 61.50 on any downside momentum off the open
- Will be keeping an eye on volume/volatility. It'll be nice to see a repeat of yesterdays range but it's very likely to rever to choppy.
- Early trade only if there is a really obvious high volume node close to the open price

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2456.750 -> 2480.25
Value - 2467.25 -> 2479.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2457 -> 2480.50
Value - 2464.50 -> 2480.50
Globex - 2462.25 ->2472.50

Settlement 2464.25

Today only - 2461.25, 2464

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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2nd August



Volume is still reasonable for the time of year but we are stuck in this range at all time highs.



No signs that we will break the range - fairly even distribution so far this week.



Just going over the same area.

Plan
- Trade the range - but look for an early trade off the open
- Watch this weeks range first - so possible fades around 66.25 and 75.50 then the larger rage 61.25-79
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays level
- Be patient if there's no trade off the open


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2465.25 -> 2477.25
Value - 2469.75 -> 2475.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.25 / 2468 -> 2475 / 2477.25
Value - 2470.50 -> 2474
Globex - 2472.50 ->2475.50

Settlement 2472.25

Today only - 61.25, 66.25, 75.50,79

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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3rd August



Still in the narrow range and still rotating around it.



A very evenly distributed profile - not much to say on that other than it points to continuation of the range.



Yesterday was a very technical 'day trader' driven day. A reversal off the overnight high and we traversed the range top to bottom. So even though we are in a range, there's good opportunity.

Plan
- Trade the range - but look for an early trade off the open
- Watch this weeks range first - so possible fades around 64.25 and 77.25 then the larger rage 61.25-79
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels
- Be patient if there's no trade off the open,wait for an extreme


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.25
Value - 2468.75 -> 2474.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2475.75 / 2476
Value - 2465.75 -> 2472.75
Globex - 2467.75 ->2472.75

Settlement 2473.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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4th August



Market still in the same range, it'll break at some point of course but until it does - same rules apply!



We are still in one single distribution for the week. A Friday break out is low probability, so we'll presume range bound for today. Looking at this I'd see fades below 67 and above 76



Not much to mention about this - other than to watch the daily highs/lows value highs/lows.

Plan
- Trade the range - but look for an early trade off the open
- Watch this weeks range first - so possible fades around the weeks range but also watch 67 and 76
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels
- Be patient if there's no trade off the open,wait for an extreme


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.25
Value - 2469.25 -> 2474.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.50 -> 2473 / 2474.50
Value - 2468.75 -> 2471.75
Globex - 2469.50 ->2471.75

Settlement 2471.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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7th August




We are still happily trading the range - I have the range at 61-79.50 but it's more art than science - so around those areas.

Settlement on Friday was 1 whole tick away from Thursday settlement. So this is all pure intraday speculation in my opinion.



Last weeks profile shows we traded a couple of points within that each side, it is very evenly distributed. So it seems traders like trading here.

I think the value area is a bit misleading, most of the action was from 67-75 last week.



We had some initial volatility on Friday, which does highlight the need to change approach during the summertime.

We hit the top of the range early on, then reversed down from there and after that was chop.

Going in to today - we hit the top of the range overnight, so we might not see a test into the day session

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Join any moves to the downside as the range high has been tested
- Look for fades outside of the bulk of last weeks action 67.25 -> 75.50. Obviously that's within the overall range and it would be better if we could probe outside 61-79.50 but we couldn't get there last week so....
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.50
Value - 2469.25 -> 2474.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 2467.25 / 2469.25 -> 2477.75
Value - 2471.75 -> 2474.25
Globex - 2472 ->2477.50

Settlement 2472

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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8th August



Still sticking in the overall range, close to the top right now so on the lookout for headfakes today before we roll over.



We popped last weeks high by a couple of ticks. It's held so far, no reaction either way.



A pretty dismal day today. Typical summer time action. Look out for volume dropping more today. Typically, we'll go down to 800k and below in the summer time. The action hasn't been that bad this summer relatively speaking, I think it may be time to think about abandoning the S&P for a few weeks. The next few days action should be our guide.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Watch out for low volume/indeterminate day
- Be aware of headfakes on any moves outside the range updside
- Look for fades outside of the bulk of last weeks action 67.25 -> 75.50. Obviously that's within the overall range and it would be better if we could probe outside 61-79.50 but we couldn't get there last week so....
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.50
Value - 2469.25 -> 2474.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 2472 / 2473 -> 2478.25
Value - 2474 -> 2477
Globex - 2473.50 ->2478

Settlement 2477.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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9th August



A big day yesterday - so there's still plenty of traders there. Back to the range though. Hard to have any bias on a day after such a move but as we are at the bottom of the range , we should work our way to the top.



I wouldn't read anything into the weekly profiles, the large distribution in the middle is just one range day.



Not much to read into the daily profiles either. I'll be looking for a reaction at yesterdays low but the value area doesn't count for much as we never really traded one area for long yesterday.

Plan
- Open mind today
- Look for continuation up as we are at the bottom of the range
- Look for a reaction at yesterdays low
- Other than that, look to see if we get decent volatility again and go with it, whichever direction
- Don't force it, if the volume/volatility is low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2461.50 -> 2488.50
Value - 2469.50 -> 2481

Daily Numbers
Range - 2467.50 -> 2488.50
Value - 2471.50 -> 2486.50
Globex - 2461.50 ->2473.25

Settlement 2472.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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 IBLAB 
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Always wonderful !TYVM

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IBLAB View Post
Always wonderful !TYVM

Thanks

I'm back from a 6 week trip to the UK - so will be a little more consistent now I'm back!

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17th August



Labor day is Sept 4th, so we have a little over 2 weeks left of 'summertime trading' and to be honest, it's not been the worse summer ever. Not as good as 2016 but not awful.

As we can see we had a drop down and tested the top of the May-Jul range and that's held. We are now back in the July onwards.

Looking a the past 2 days, it's hard to pick a bias. In theory it should be "traverse to high of this range" - but as that's failed the past 2 days, it doesn't seem like the smartest bet.



We do have an upper distribution showing trade above the low of the larger range. So not much that we couldn't see on the previous chart.



Same here - so the different charts not helping us much in terms of different perspectives.

Plan
- No bias
- Look for an early trade to see if you can squeeze something out of the first swing
- for longs - wait for tests of yesterdays low or range low (2461)
- for shorts - range high is obvious (79.50) but also watch yesterdays high/val low/val high for a reaction.
- In all cases, let it react first and then jump on momentum. If there's no momentum, there's no trade.
- if (like yesterday) liquidity is high - look to use a larger position size

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2441.50 -> 2474
Value - 2462 -> 2470.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2461.50/2462.50 -> 2474
Value - 2466.50 -> 2472.50
Globex - 2462.50 ->2468.25

Settlement 2467.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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18th August



A big drop yesterday but not huge volume. I don't like to suggest buying a market that has such obvious downside but I would look out at 2416 - the low of the old range.



No use of the weekly profile after this drop... extended moves and profiling don't go well together...



Down 30 points, pretty much from nowhere. Not really sure if we can blame the current news events for this - but there is a lot going on in the news. With the move down on low volume it's more likely a lack of holiday liquidity.

After a big down day, we look for volatility. It is as common to 'snap back up' after a big drop as it is to have a big move down. In my opinion - it's best to go in with no bias, keep an eye on 'volatile or not' and jump on any volatile moves, possibly scaling in to avert risk

Plan
- Look for volatility and jump on it if it occurs
- careful at 2416
- don't go crazy trying to chase the market up and down if it does move.
- don't trade agains momentum at all - no reversal trades if volatility is there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2423.75 -> 2474
Value - irrelevant today

Daily Numbers
Range - 2428.75 -> 2464 / 2468.50
Value - irrelevant today
Globex - 2423.75 ->2434

Settlement 2428.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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 Tomash 
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Hi, thanks for the great work

I just have one question. Are you sure about the volume yesterday? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that we menaged to get above 2 millions. Do you think that it was a average volume day?

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Tomash View Post
Hi, thanks for the great work

I just have one question. Are you sure about the volume yesterday? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that we menaged to get above 2 millions. Do you think that it was a average volume day?

Good question. I'm not sure what's going on with my daily charts.

PC is set to BKK time.
Session settings to US time.

If you look in the chart below, you'll see the 2M is showing now...

I'm stumped...

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21st August



We've settled down in the bottom of the lower range. We did have volatility on Friday but it did take a while to kick in and there was money to be made on both sides. Volume was decent.

I think we'll have a good run if we can push down again but it's hard to have a bias either way. We are at the bottom of the lower range, so that gives you a reason for a long bias.



We can see there's not much trading last week above 2433, so we could very easily be back to 2460 if we do start to push up.



So far overnight we have stuck in Fridays range. It is still summertime, so it's quite possible we revert back to lower volume, lower volatility action.

Plan
- No bias today
- looking for an early trade - see if I can catch something early on
- If no early trade, hold off for 15 mins to see if the market shows it's hand
- Obvious moves would be shorts below 16 and longs above 33.
- Within that, look at yesterdays range/value range for a reaction. If not - no trades...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2419.50 -> 2474
Value - irrelevant today - too elongated
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2419.50 -> 2439.50
Value - 2425 -> 2434.50
Globex - 2422.75 -> 2431.50

Settlement 2424.50

Today only - 2416, 2433

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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22nd August



Bottom of the Jun-Jul range held so far. I am still looking for a good sell off below 16 but bias going into today is upside based on the range low holding. That's bias, not marriage....



We still have low volume from 33 up to 60 and we haven't really gotten into it yet, so look out for a pop if we do continue up.



The low of the old range was 16 and we popped down to 2415.75, a decent pop to the upside which was continued overnight.

Plan
- Long bias - looking for this bounce to continue
- Layer into a position above 35 on the prospect of a run if we do move up
- Look for shorts on failure at the overnight high
- Other than that - follow volume on any intraday reversals as usual - but no real idea where they will have it


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2419.50 -> 2474
Value - irrelevant today - too elongated
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2429.50 / 2431.50
Value - 2421.50 -> 2428
Globex - 2427.50-> 2437.25

Settlement 2428

Today only - 2416, 2433

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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23rd August



As expected, we carried on up yesterday - we didn't make it to the upper consolidation area yet (the white box above), so caution around 2460.



Same thing here (although a couple of points above 2460), we see the larger distribution from last week.



An interesting day yesterday. A pop up and then a real grind to the upside. I was hoping to see 2460 but we never got there. It was a tough day to trade if you missed the first pop. This goes doubly if you are a permafader 'cause it really did look like it was struggling.

Plan
- Slight Long bias - wary as we get up to 2460, looking for us to hit the other side of the upper range - 2480
- Looking for pullbacks to yesterdays high/low/value high/low
- Looking for more of a 2 sided day today, so happy on either side after a failure to continue

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2418.25 -> 2437.25
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2427.50 / 2432.75 -> 2454
Value - 2422 -> 2454
Globex - 2446.50-> 2454.75

Settlement 2428

Today only - 2452.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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24th August



We moved up during yesterdays day session after moving down overnight. We'd had a decent move overnight and that often leads to a 'rebalance' off the open. So after a down night, we often get a pop up off the open. That pop up has to be treated with suspicion because it might just be a reaction to the underlying stock market opening after a down move on the futures.

Anyway - we got the pop and not much else. Volume isn't bad for the time of year, but there's not much interest. Note that people will be looking at the channel above. Not that I'd trade it - but if the market does react there we could see increased participation to the downside.



This weeks profile doesn't help us much, it is very evenly distributed. I'm still thinking that care should be taken towards 60-62 on any move up.



Not that much to see here either.

So we are between 2 trading ranges right now...

Plan
- no clear bias
- look for an early trade right off the open
- be very wary of reduced volatility
- watch the usual 'yesterday/overnight' levels for a reaction
- other than that - a play it by ear day...


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2420.25 -> 2444.25
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2438.75 -> 2447.75 / 2454.74
Value - 2442.75 -> 2446.25
Globex - 2435.25-> 2441.50

Settlement 2441.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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28th August



Market is sideways - hard to pick a bias considering we are between 2 ranges, so I don't have one, certainly not based on the longer term view.



A lot of the trading last week was focused between 2437.50 and 2449.50. So an eye on that area.



This is confirmed with the daily profiles. We can see probes outside of that range but that's where we seem to be stuck right now.

Plan
- Considering we are stuck in a range, presume it'll hold & look for fades below 37.50 and above 49.50
- Look for an opening trade as we could revert to chop after the open (still in the holiday period)
- Look also for trades of daily/overnight levels. other than that, no trades in the middle of this range.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2432.75 -> 2451.75
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2437.50 / 2441 -> 2453.50
Value - 2442.50 -> 2448.50
Globex - 2437.50-> 2445

Settlement 2442.50

Today only 2437.50, 2449.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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29th August



Gold up, stocks down and missiles over Japan. We don't often see mid-week gaps down, maybe Kim Jong-Un was short the ES last night...

It's a news driven day. Technicals are off the table pretty much.



You don't see this often, so it's worth posting. Given the nature of the trading environment, I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to it though!



With any big push down, we always look for a snap back and potentially a gap fill. Thing is - the news will dictate what happens. So we have a few things in play today....

1 - watching out for a reaction to yesterdays reaction - in other words - will traders panic and sell off or will they shrug it off and start buying these bargain prices
2 - At any point during the trading day - news could hit the wires that sends the market off in one direction. So trading large positions is more risky today

Plan
- Let the market open and wait to see which way the wind blows
- Look out for reduced liquidity(less market depth)/more volatility - both overall but also look for any sudden changes
- Try to follow volume but scale in to a position, starting small and adding as there's some breathing room in the trsde
- Be careful!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2432.75 -> 2451.75
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2436.25 / 2438 -> 2449.25
Value - 2439.75-> 2443.75
Globex - 2421-> 2434

Settlement 2443.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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30th August




The market took the "sky isn't falling after all" option yesterday. Shrugged off Kim's missiles and moved back up in tthe choppy area we'd settled into the days before the news.



Looking at the profiles, it really does look like we are set to settle back into the 37-48 range. So watching out for that.



Yesterday was an elongated up day, so value area is of no use in my opinion. We are now up past the top of the 37-48 range, so first order of the day is to see if sellers step in to take us down to 37.

Plan
- No bias
- Will join any selling off the open with a view to hitting 37
- Will try to take an early trade as it's still summer and the missile excitement seems to have died out
- Other than that - will have to let the day unfold to see what comes up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2454.25
Value - 2431.50 -> 2453.50
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2421 / 2426.25 -> 2448.50
Value - no use today
Globex - 2445.25-> 2454.25

Settlement 2447

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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31st August



The market continues to shrug off the missile news but we still have news risk overall. We are at the bottom of the old range so I am looking for signs we'll turn back down here or move to the other end of the range 2480.



I'm not drawing any conclusions from the weekly profile, except potentially to look for the market to hold there if we push down.



On the daily charts, I'll be looking for the regular levels for a reaction today - yesterdays high/low, yesterdays value area. Also looking where that late pullback ended at 2543.

I don't really see much reason for high participation apart from the unemployment claims...

Plan
- No bias
- expecting a technical day if unemployment claims are within expectations - so watching the usual levels
- longs above 61.25 and shorts below
- Still wary reversion to chop
- expecting a technical day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2463
Value - 2435 -> 2460
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2442.75 -> 2459
Value - 2450 -> 2459.50
Globex - 2545.75 -> 2463

Settlement 2455.75

Today only - 2453, 2461.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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5th September



Labor day yesterday, so volume should now recover and we should be back to regular "post holiday" volume by Monday.

Saying that, with Kim letting of nukes, we are now back to high-risk from an unplanned news event. If it weren't for that I'd be looking for longs going into today as we've hit the top of the upper range and are now at the bottom of it.

My 2 'non-news' scenarios are above.



A pretty elongated week last week, so no use of the weekly value area. In fact, I don't see much value in last weeks profile this week.



This is more interesting. We see a gap down again, most likely because of the NK nuke test. I'd normally use Fri-Mon as the numbers for "yesterday" when we get back from a bank holiday but today I think the key numbers will be...

Friday day session low (gap close) - 2473 and the low we made off the news drop 2460.25.

Plan
- Play technical but with an ear to the news
- Look for continuation up off the market shrugging off the news drop, caution at 2473 when the gap closes
- Look for a headfake/weakness around 2480 (top of range)
- Shorts below 2460
- Very cautious today because of the news potential

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2479.75
Value - No use this week
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2460.25 /2464.50-> 2469
Value - Not today - holiday yesterday
Globex - 2565.25 -> 2470.75

Settlement Not today - holiday yesterday

Today only - 2473, 2480

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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6th September



A pretty wild day yesterday, we fell 7 ticks short of filling the gap and then sellers piled in before making a recovery. We did go into yesterday with a long bias but cautious at the gap close and an understanding that news could throw the market into a spin.

The market is definitely looking nervous and so caution is key over the next few days at least....



I'm just putting this here for completeness, I don't think it helps us much today.



We were looking for shorts below 60 yesterday and the market did stall at 60.75, before the big breakdown. Saying that, I can't justify setting any levels today. I have no bias. The market is all over the place. It should be interesting with the roll starting tomorrow...

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open IF the open is fairly orderly - not too fast, not too much volume
- Watch out for volatility, if it appears to be high, then try to scale into a position in either direction. Be ready to bail
- Other than that - if it opens more orderly, watch for a developing level to play off


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - No use this week
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2445.50-> 2471.25
Value - 2447.75 -> 2463.25
Globex - 2565.50 -> 2463.25

Settlement 2459.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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7th September



A flat day yesterday, so still no real bias from the longer term charts.



We can see a big distribution from 2458.25 -> 2470. Typical of a range week. So we are on the lookout for that.



We can see the narrow range. As we know, range weeks start out this way, we do still have news events to consider and it's also the rollover to the December contract today. This typically takes a couple of days - but an eye on December volume and move to there when volume is greater.

Plan
- Expect a slow day
- Look for a trade off the open,
- After the open look for longs around 58.25 and shorts around 70.00
- no trades within 58.25-70
- beware of headfakes and take continuations outside the range only after a test (or iceberg to lean on)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - 2458.75 -> 2468.25
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2456.50 / 2458.25 -> 2467.25
Value - 2461.50 -> 2466
Globex - 2455.75-> 2464.25

Settlement 2465.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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9th September



For todays prep - see yesterdays prep! Basically sitting in the same range and expecting the same thing.



We built out the weeks range - so still watching 58.25 ->70.



Market is still rolling to December, we are still in the range - so plan today is same as yesterday.

Plan
- Expect a slow day
- Look for a trade off the open,
- After the open look for longs around 58.25 and shorts around 70.00
- no trades within 58.25-70
- beware of headfakes and take continuations outside the range only after a test (or iceberg to lean on)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - 2458.35 -> 2466.75
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2455.75 / 2457.75 -> 2467
Value - 2459.75 -> 2463.25
Globex - 2456-> 2465.75

Settlement 2466.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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