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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,310 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old September 10th, 2013, 06:33 AM   #101 (permalink)
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10th September

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Finally!!! We got our range extension. We were looking for 1671.50 and we got 1671.75 in yesterdays pit session.

So, now we need to go on to threaten the highs again or roll back and extend the range to the downside. Obviously, the market will only repeat this behaviour so many times. This is a slow news day, so we might not see too much at all, unless someone stirs the pot in Syria again.

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As you can see, the market has done a good impression of a market that will carry on, each time we extended the range to the upside & downside. We can see that there was some consolidation aruond 1671 line before moving out but a lot of this has been overnight action. Traders will be looking for this area to hold when the pit session starts today. Above that we have hurdles at 1686, 1696 and 1705.

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Most of the overnight action has been above the close and that might cause a move down off the open. We can see that the value high from yesterday 1669 has been support and is a key line in the sand as we open today. Yesterday was a double-distribution day and there is a single at 1667.25 which is also a line in the sand. If that breaks, we would be looking at yesterdays pit low of 1658.25 as a target.

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The week is also showing 2 distinct distributions and again, we have that single at 1667.25 as a line in the sand on the weekly chart. Value is misleading as we have those 2 distributions. Rather than looking at value, look at it as staying above the top distribution or going to visit the one below.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1652 -> 1677.25
Value 1654.75 -> 1669.75
S1 - 1634.75, R1 - 1668

Daily Numbers
Range 1652/1658.25 -> 1671.75
Value 1660 -> 1669
Globex 1669 -> 1677.25 (as at 4:30am EST)

Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641.00, 1647.00, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1686, 1696, 1705

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Old September 11th, 2013, 08:26 AM   #102 (permalink)
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11th September

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I think we can say that we are well past any expectations for range extension based on the way this range has extended previously, so I am looking at taking this 'expanding range' prospect off the table. If we do turn down, I see the 1667.75 area as a major line in the sand for the longs and would expect at least a bounce off that if we turn down.

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If we look inside the box, we can see the market has been over this area many times and as such our expectation should be that it will be choppy working to the upside of it (1695.75). We also have a level in the middle at 1685.75 to watch our for.

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The profile shows the consolidation yesterday and in the Globex session. The Eurex morning session was really slow today and it's a slow news week until tomorrow. So combine the lack of news, waiting for employment numbers tomorrow and previous action in this range and I'd say it's decent probability that we will have rangebound behavior off the open.

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The weekly profile shows we have 3 distributions and we are in the top one right now with a 1675.75 as the low of the distribution and a single print at 1674. Both of these are lines in sand and longs will not want to go below these areas.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1652 -> 1684.00
Value 1662.75 -> 1683.75
S1 - 1634.75, R1 - 1668

Daily Numbers
Range 1669/1676.75 -> 1683.25
Value 1679.25 -> 1682.25
Globex 1679.75-> 1684.00

Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641.00, 1647.00, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1674-1675.75, 1686, 1696, 1705

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Old September 12th, 2013, 09:28 AM   #103 (permalink)
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12th September

No trading or prep from me today as it's rollover day.

As an order flow trader, trading when there's a lot of positions moving from one contract to another would be quite confusing!

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Old September 13th, 2013, 08:54 AM   #104 (permalink)
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13th September

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We have now rolled, overnight it's been just over half of the volume in the December. There's still a fair amount of activity in the September contract overnight, so there's still going to be contracts rolling today. We can see we still have upside momentum and a run through the highs - 1705 - looks likely.

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There's a gap down on the chart but this is a continuous chart and so it's just an effect of the roll from one contract to the next. So I'm not reading anything into that. As per Wednesdays prep, if we look to the left, we can see there's been a lot of rangebound behavior at these prices in the past few months.

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This is the profile for the December contract. We've poked above Wednesdays high but mostly we've stayed in Wednesdays range and so we'll be looking at 1671.25 to the downside as potential support for a move up.

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The December weekly profile shows the three distributions and value for the week is in the upper distribution.

So we are moving up, there's still some rolling to do, we do have some news today and that could spark the market into action. On the other hand, it's possible we just range again today being at this level & with the remaining rolling to be done. Still, I'm more keen to take a long off a support level right now.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1645.75 -> 1684
Value 1670 -> 1683
S1 - 1634.75, R1 - 1668

Daily Numbers
Range 1674.75 -> 1683.25/1684
Value 1677 -> 1681.50
Globex 1674 -> 1680.75

Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641.00, 1647.00, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25, 1671.25, 1686, 1690.75, 1696, 1705

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Old September 16th, 2013, 08:12 AM   #105 (permalink)
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16th September

We gapped up in the Globex Session and made new all time highs sort of.

If you look at the December contract, we can see this:

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A big gap up and through the 'all time highs' in the December contract that the same time we made the 1705 high in the September contract.

Of course, on the continuous contract (depending on how you have it set up). You see this:

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So we didn't hit the all time high yet. I don't think there's a right answer to this but I'm sticking with 1705 as the all time high and looking for us to break that today and for that to cause a bit of irrational exuberance. I'll be looking for the low of the globex to act as support and below that the 1690.50 level.

In terms of profiles, there's not much to see.

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We have gapped so far above last weeks range, that we can't really get any numbers from it apart from the high of the December contract last week is 1684 as opposed to the 1690.50 level on the continuous chart.

So for me, play it by ear but with an upside bias as long as we don't seriously go into the gap. Let the action build over the next few days for more clarity.

Weekly Numbers (Dec Contract)
Range 1645.75-> 1684.00
Value 1671.50 -> 1683.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1674/1675 -> 1682.25
Value 1678.50 -> 1681.50
Globex 1697.50 -> 1702.50

Other : 1671.25, 1684-1686, 1690.50->75, 1696, 1705

Watch the DOM off the open. There is a chance that today ends up really narrow range after this move up. If the DOM is really thick and lots of contracts trading each level, be wary of playing continuations.

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Old September 17th, 2013, 09:49 AM   #106 (permalink)
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17th September

We came 1.5 points shy of the all time high of 1705 yesterday and we could not sustain it. I'm not going to show the continuous charts today as they will be confusing, I need to roll them over before putting them back up.

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We can see that we had the gap up on Sundays globex session, then yesterday we had a modest drop. Todays Globex has not yet managed to get through yesterdays low.

There's a theory that says markets can get too long. That if there's too many people long, those people are going to sell out at good prices and that stops us from moving up. So I'm not going to get too bearish about yesterday at this point as it wasn't a huge sell off. Perhaps now there aren't so many sell orders above after yesterday and this might be what we need for a push up. Of course, if we do push down through yesterdays low more than 6-9 ticks, I will get a bit more bullish. We are back up in yesterdays value area right now after trading below it most of the globex session.

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We can see last weeks December contract high here and so we still haven't closed the gap yet.

So I'm thinking we may have just shaken out some longs yesterday and that there's less resistance overhead but I am of course wary of us breaking down through yesterdays low.

Weekly Numbers (Dec Contract)
Range 1645.75-> 1684.00
Value 1671.50 -> 1683.00

Daily Numbers
Range 1688.00 -> 1700.50/1703.50
Value 1691 -> 1697.50
Globex 1687.75 -> 1692.75

Other : 1671.25, 1684-1686, 1690.50->75, 1696, 1705

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Old September 18th, 2013, 06:36 AM   #107 (permalink)
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18th September

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Early prep today (5:30 am EST). The European session was slow today but that's to be expected on FOMC day. As discussed, the Monday move down was probably down to having some longs that needed to get shaken out and we made some ground back yesterday. Not much though but then it's FOMC today.

I've now moved to the back-adjusted continuous contract for Dec-13. You can see that 03.50 is the all time high on this adjusted chart but we still have an eye on the Sept-13 high of 1705.

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We haven't closed the gap and the low point since the gap up 1687.75 is still a line in the sand.

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Not really much to pick up from the weekly profile. We are in a small range this week and we'll probably stay in that before FOMC unless we have a big shock with building permits at 8:30am EST. I'll be looking in at the open but if it's really slow I'll stop at 10:30am EST as I don't trade the afternoons. Ideally the AM would rotate around a 4-5 point tradeable range.

Weekly Numbers (Dec Contract)
Range 1687.75-> 1703.75
Value 1691.25 -> 1701.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1687.75/1692 ->1699.25
Value 1696 -> 1698.50
Globex 1698 -> 1701.50 (5:30am EST)

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.25, 1698.75, 1705

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Old September 19th, 2013, 06:50 AM   #108 (permalink)
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19th September

Thank heavens for the Fed, keeping us all dry.

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Not that I want to be the first to call the bursting of this bubble...

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So no taper and we've moved up a fair amount off the back of that news but surely that will not be the end of it, so whilst Syria is quiet, we do have additional news risk over the next few days. Increased likelyhood of "flip flopping".

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We effectively broke out from the 1703.75 area, so that's a line in the sand, bulls will want to keep it above there and we have a level above that at 1705 and below at 1688.50.

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There's not much more to glean from the pofiles. Value areas on extended days like yesterday are fairly meaningless. Overnight inventory at the time of writing (5pm EST) is slightly long which could cause an initial push down. In fact, just the crazy action since the 10th September with the market making big gaps up is cause for concern for the upside. This doesn't mean we have to go down but we do need to build volume up here to firm up these prices.

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We have 2 distinct distributions, the top one is mostly showing todays Globex session, but we can see 1716.25 as a the low of that distribution and it's worth taking not of as we may halt there. Worthy of note is that value did not move up at all yesterday. That needs to happen to sustain these prices.

So we have some levels to play off. We do have overnight inventory long and if it does move down off the open, I'll not be trying to catch the knife on this one. These prices feel somewhat lofty, so I think it's just a matter of being conservative if you are long. You can't discount the long side at all because this market has been going one way so long off the Feds easing.

Weekly Numbers (Dec Contract)
Range 1687.75-> 1726.75
Value 1689.25 -> 1701.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1693.25 -> 1726.75
Value BEST IGNORED TODAY
Globex 1717.50 -> 1726.75

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1704 (single), 1705, 1716.25

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Last edited by DionysusToast; September 19th, 2013 at 09:54 AM. Reason: fixed yesterdays high
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Old September 20th, 2013, 06:38 AM   #109 (permalink)
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20th September

Options & Futures expiring today, which typically causes volatility late in the day. No real news to speak of though.

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We had 1716.25 as a line in the sand related to the weeks upper distribution, we did break that and there was acceleration when it went through but we got 3 points down and buyers jumped in. Whilst they didn't manage to push it back up we have held above there and the 1713.25 is now a line in the sand for today.

The weekly profile shows this better:

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We clearly have 2 distributions of activity - and so the value area across that is somewhat meaningless. So I'm looking at 1713.25 -> 1724 as a rough estimate of value. If we break below 1713.25, there's not much to stop it going down to that lower distribution and the single print is a good target. So if we break 13.25, I wouldn't certainly want to be scaled out a large portion of a short by 1704 as that could be as low as we go.

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The daily profile doesn't show much more than the overnight inventory is short and is that remains the case over the next 4 hours (it's 5:30am EST here), then we could have an initial adjustment up off the open. We are still in yesterdays value area though so effectively nothing is changed overnight at this point.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1687.75-> 1726.75
Value 1687.75 -> 1715.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1713.25 -> 1723.75 (pit) /1726.75 (globex)
Value 1714.50 -> 1719.50
Globex 1714.25 -> 1717.50

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1704 (single), 1705, 1716.25, 1724

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Old September 23rd, 2013, 06:52 AM   #110 (permalink)
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23rd September

Let's start off with the weekly profile today.This is where we were going into Friday:

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"We clearly have 2 distributions of activity - and so the value area across that is somewhat meaningless. So I'm looking at 1713.25 -> 1724 as a rough estimate of value. If we break below 1713.25, there's not much to stop it going down to that lower distribution and the single print is a good target."

We did see the move down accelerate as we broke 1713.25 and as it turned out, we actually got through the single print to the downside. Now we are here:

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So we are between the 2 distributions, so I'll be looking to see which one we move back to in order to try and figure out where might be going next.

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We have 'resolved' or 'repaired' the gap up from last Sunday but we still have a gap below down at 1685 and it is possible we need to revisit that before moving up. Anyway Friday was a good example of how quickly we move through areas where not much trading has occurred.

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Not really much additional info on the daily profiles, we can see the Globex so far has just gone a tick through Fridays low and that overnight inventory is mostly long. That does put the prospect of an initial adjustment downwards on the cards.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1687.75 -> 1726.75
Value lower distribution 1688 -> 1701.75 (approx)
Value upper distriution 1713.24 -> 1724
S1 - 1696. R1 - 1714

Daily Numbers
Range 1701.25 -> 1719.25
Value 1701.50 -> 1712.50
Globex (5:45 AM EST) 1701 -> 1707.50

Other : 1671.50, 1684, 1688.50, 1698.75, 1704 (single), 1705, 1712.75

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