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DTs Pre Market Prep

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14th September



Market not sure what to do at this top. It is trading plenty of volume up here which is good for continuation. I'd still like to see a downside test to get everyone to have more confidence in the upside and pile in. Still waiting



We have a few areas worth watching below. Not overly significant but would expect to see better upside participation if any of them hold.



Very narrow - we could stick in this range all week. Yesterday we had a test of ONL and prior VAL - so a technical day trader day. What we expected. Looking for more of the same today but obviously the longer we stay in this narrow range, the choppier it'll get so no trading in the middle of the past 2 days range.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open, low expectations after that
- Look to fade above 96 and below 88. Headfakes etc
- no trades between 88 ad 96
- go with any breakdown with high vol but note that 80, the old range high would be the target
- expect upside breaks to be slow without a downside test first.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2495.50
Value - 2485 -> 2495
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2489 /2489.25 -> 2495.50
Value - 2492 - 2494
Globex - 2491.50 -> 2495.50

Settlement – 2493.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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  #1082 (permalink)
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15th August



Still in the same place. As we've been in that place for 3 days, we now have the 'coiled spring' effect to consider. It may be we no longer need a pullback. We just need one side to stop out. I favor the upside. Trouble is - is it really likely to do this on a Friday?



We can see an upper distribution - but obviously that's not really additional information.



So today looking to the range high & low to give us clues. Same deal as yesterday (which worked out

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open, low expectations after that
- Look to fade above 96 and below 88. Headfakes etc
- no trades between 88 ad 96
- go with any breakdown with high vol but note that 80, the old range high would be the target
- expect upside breaks to be slow without a downside test first.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2496.25
Value - 2486.50 -> 2495
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2487.50 /2489 -> 2496.25
Value - 2492.50 - 2495
Globex - 2487 -> 2494.75

Settlement 2494.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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18th September



We were waiting for a pullback but in the end we got 3 range days and the low of that range was enough of a base for us to move up through. For me, still long biased, trading both ways but preferring the long side.



Last weeks value high is around 95.50 - so look out there if we do make a move down. If we do trade below it, there's a good chance we'll churn down to 88.



Not much to see here other than a rather tired break upside on Friday with this move up through 2500 overnight. Any time we put in a significant move up overnight, we have to look out for an adjustment as we head into the day session. The stocks and futures need to line back up. So a move down off the open wouldn't mean too much.

Saying that - this is an all time high made mostly in the Asian session. So we do need to see whether the US traders accept this move. Should be interesting.

Plan
- Look for an early trade - but be aware the market might be a bit whippy off the open
- After the first few mins, leave the market to show it's hand -see how the US traders like these prices
- a pullback to Fridays high/value high and a lift from there would be good as would any break from the overnight range.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2498
Value - 2487.50 -> 2495.50
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2487 /2490.50 -> 2498
Value - 2493.75 - 2497.25
Globex - 2498.50 -> 2504.50

Settlement 2497.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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19th September



not a lot of headway since yesterday - we moves up a little from the overnight highs but not much more.



We moved down to tag last wees high, still shy of value. Nothing much to gather from this.



yesterday we had a decent move up off the open but it soon died out and we moved sideways. It's the typical range week setup again, so I'm not in a hurry to take any continuations.

Plan
- No bias going into today
- if we open in the middle of yesterdays range, will take longs above the range (beware of headfakes) or in the 2496-2498 range
- Not interested in trading between 2498 & 2506
- Will take shorts if any pushed up fail
- it's really a wait & see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2466.75 -> 2498
Value - 2487.50 -> 2495.50
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2497.75 -> 2506
Value - 2500.75 - 2505.25
Globex - 2501 -> 2504

Settlement 2502.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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20th September



Still sideways and volume really dropping off.



Volume profile is suitably ugly and showing range bound behavior.



We all know how weeks like this 'tend' to play out. That's a tendency, not an absolute, so expectation is we stay in the range but always with an eye on the break. Saying that - if we look at the weekly profile - the range is so small - really 2501-2505.

Plan
- No bias going into today
- looking for a trade off the open
- after that, unsure - in theory it's longs below 01 and shorts above 05 - but that is too narrow. So will wait to see how the range expands.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2497.75 -> 2506
Value - 2502.25 -> 2505.25
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2501 / 2501.25 -> 2506
Value - 2503.50 -> 2505.25
Globex - 2502.25 -> 2505.25

Settlement 2504.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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21st September



Well - we had a decent spike down off the FOMC but back into the tight range.



Still most trading between 02 and 05....



Really a lifeless market! We have unemployment numbers this AM, so we can hope that shakes us out a bit. My opinion is that the range is a bit too narrow to trade.

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open
- Then look for a spike below 02 or above 05 - if it doesn't move out of that range - no trading
- Other than that - waiting for a break up or down to trade momentum

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2494 -> 2507.25
Value - 2502.25 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2494 -> 2507.25
Value - 2500 -> 2506.50
Globex - 2501.50-> 2506

Settlement 2505.25

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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22nd September



We had a breakdown yesterday. Eyes on 2486.25 and 2479.50.



This is just for completeness. I guess we could see 2501 as a relevant level but the whole week.



Yesterday the opportunity, once again - was at the open. Then a narrow range. The breakdown has been mostly overnight. So first order of the day - see of we can maintain these lows or we snap back up.

Plan
- No bias
- look for an open trade
- expect good participation on any move up from 86.25 or 79.50
- otherwise, a wait & see day. I don't think we can consider the weeks range broken unless we get good volume away from it after 9:30am ESt

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2491.75 -> 2507.25
Value - 2501.25 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2481.50, R1 - 2505.50


Daily Numbers

Range - 2496.50 -> 2504.50 / 2506.25
Value - 2499.25 -> 2502.75
Globex - 2492 -> 2501.25

Settlement 2501

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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25th September



Still in the same range. Low volume. Not much to give us a bias either way...



We are below last weeks value low. The major distribution above bottoms out around 2502. Eyes on that.



Overnight we had a spike up and moved back down. Overall though - still in the range. So we need to see something break.

Plan
- Look for an early trade - as we may chop afterwards
- Shorts if we can break below 94 with volume. Longs if it holds or we move up
- Caution at 2502
- Nothing else on. Will see what develops intraday but not interested between 94-02

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2492 -> 2507.25
Value - 2599.75 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2492 / 2494.75 -> 2501
Value - 2495.50 -> 2498
Globex - 2495 -> 2504.50

Settlement 2499.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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26th September



Deja Vu time - still trading the same area. Even Kim & Don can't shake us out.



There's no real cluster yet from this weeks trading to guide us yet, so weekly profile isn't helping much.



We broke the 94 level we were watching yesterday and it was a gave us some downside opportunity and we are now back in the range, so the 94 is off the table today.

Plan
- No bias
- looking for an early trade again - first swing or 2
- Then there's really not much on, so unless something eventful happens between now & the open, I'm struggling to see any decent trade in this area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2492 -> 2507.25
Value - 2599.75 -> 2505.75
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2500 / 2504.50
Value - 2487.25 -> 2494.25
Globex - 2492.75 -> 2498.25

Settlement 2497

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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27th September



Still sideways.



A big distribution from 94-98.25



Once again - not much to see here either. Early trade was good yesterday - we tagged settlement and then moved up. A long by 98 was fairly easy - just not that much follow through and lucky if you got filled at 01. Looking for the same off todays open hopefully in a better location to get follow through.

Plan
- No bias
- look to capitalize on the early swings
- look for fades outside of yesterdays range - but with caution as that's still in the middle of nowhere from a big picture perspective
- pat self on the back for being patient....

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2485 -> 2504.50
Value - 2594.25 -> 2599.75
S1 - 2493.25, R1 - 2506.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2492.25 -> 2501.25
Value - 2495.25 -> 2499.25
Globex - 2494.25 -> 2501.25

Settlement 2495.50

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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