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DTs Pre Market Prep

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29th August



Gold up, stocks down and missiles over Japan. We don't often see mid-week gaps down, maybe Kim Jong-Un was short the ES last night...

It's a news driven day. Technicals are off the table pretty much.



You don't see this often, so it's worth posting. Given the nature of the trading environment, I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to it though!



With any big push down, we always look for a snap back and potentially a gap fill. Thing is - the news will dictate what happens. So we have a few things in play today....

1 - watching out for a reaction to yesterdays reaction - in other words - will traders panic and sell off or will they shrug it off and start buying these bargain prices
2 - At any point during the trading day - news could hit the wires that sends the market off in one direction. So trading large positions is more risky today

Plan
- Let the market open and wait to see which way the wind blows
- Look out for reduced liquidity(less market depth)/more volatility - both overall but also look for any sudden changes
- Try to follow volume but scale in to a position, starting small and adding as there's some breathing room in the trsde
- Be careful!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2432.75 -> 2451.75
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2436.25 / 2438 -> 2449.25
Value - 2439.75-> 2443.75
Globex - 2421-> 2434

Settlement 2443.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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30th August




The market took the "sky isn't falling after all" option yesterday. Shrugged off Kim's missiles and moved back up in tthe choppy area we'd settled into the days before the news.



Looking at the profiles, it really does look like we are set to settle back into the 37-48 range. So watching out for that.



Yesterday was an elongated up day, so value area is of no use in my opinion. We are now up past the top of the 37-48 range, so first order of the day is to see if sellers step in to take us down to 37.

Plan
- No bias
- Will join any selling off the open with a view to hitting 37
- Will try to take an early trade as it's still summer and the missile excitement seems to have died out
- Other than that - will have to let the day unfold to see what comes up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2454.25
Value - 2431.50 -> 2453.50
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2421 / 2426.25 -> 2448.50
Value - no use today
Globex - 2445.25-> 2454.25

Settlement 2447

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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31st August



The market continues to shrug off the missile news but we still have news risk overall. We are at the bottom of the old range so I am looking for signs we'll turn back down here or move to the other end of the range 2480.



I'm not drawing any conclusions from the weekly profile, except potentially to look for the market to hold there if we push down.



On the daily charts, I'll be looking for the regular levels for a reaction today - yesterdays high/low, yesterdays value area. Also looking where that late pullback ended at 2543.

I don't really see much reason for high participation apart from the unemployment claims...

Plan
- No bias
- expecting a technical day if unemployment claims are within expectations - so watching the usual levels
- longs above 61.25 and shorts below
- Still wary reversion to chop
- expecting a technical day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2463
Value - 2435 -> 2460
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2442.75 -> 2459
Value - 2450 -> 2459.50
Globex - 2545.75 -> 2463

Settlement 2455.75

Today only - 2453, 2461.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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5th September



Labor day yesterday, so volume should now recover and we should be back to regular "post holiday" volume by Monday.

Saying that, with Kim letting of nukes, we are now back to high-risk from an unplanned news event. If it weren't for that I'd be looking for longs going into today as we've hit the top of the upper range and are now at the bottom of it.

My 2 'non-news' scenarios are above.



A pretty elongated week last week, so no use of the weekly value area. In fact, I don't see much value in last weeks profile this week.



This is more interesting. We see a gap down again, most likely because of the NK nuke test. I'd normally use Fri-Mon as the numbers for "yesterday" when we get back from a bank holiday but today I think the key numbers will be...

Friday day session low (gap close) - 2473 and the low we made off the news drop 2460.25.

Plan
- Play technical but with an ear to the news
- Look for continuation up off the market shrugging off the news drop, caution at 2473 when the gap closes
- Look for a headfake/weakness around 2480 (top of range)
- Shorts below 2460
- Very cautious today because of the news potential

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2421 -> 2479.75
Value - No use this week
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2460.25 /2464.50-> 2469
Value - Not today - holiday yesterday
Globex - 2565.25 -> 2470.75

Settlement Not today - holiday yesterday

Today only - 2473, 2480

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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6th September



A pretty wild day yesterday, we fell 7 ticks short of filling the gap and then sellers piled in before making a recovery. We did go into yesterday with a long bias but cautious at the gap close and an understanding that news could throw the market into a spin.

The market is definitely looking nervous and so caution is key over the next few days at least....



I'm just putting this here for completeness, I don't think it helps us much today.



We were looking for shorts below 60 yesterday and the market did stall at 60.75, before the big breakdown. Saying that, I can't justify setting any levels today. I have no bias. The market is all over the place. It should be interesting with the roll starting tomorrow...

Plan
- Look for a trade off the open IF the open is fairly orderly - not too fast, not too much volume
- Watch out for volatility, if it appears to be high, then try to scale into a position in either direction. Be ready to bail
- Other than that - if it opens more orderly, watch for a developing level to play off


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - No use this week
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2445.50-> 2471.25
Value - 2447.75 -> 2463.25
Globex - 2565.50 -> 2463.25

Settlement 2459.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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7th September



A flat day yesterday, so still no real bias from the longer term charts.



We can see a big distribution from 2458.25 -> 2470. Typical of a range week. So we are on the lookout for that.



We can see the narrow range. As we know, range weeks start out this way, we do still have news events to consider and it's also the rollover to the December contract today. This typically takes a couple of days - but an eye on December volume and move to there when volume is greater.

Plan
- Expect a slow day
- Look for a trade off the open,
- After the open look for longs around 58.25 and shorts around 70.00
- no trades within 58.25-70
- beware of headfakes and take continuations outside the range only after a test (or iceberg to lean on)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - 2458.75 -> 2468.25
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2456.50 / 2458.25 -> 2467.25
Value - 2461.50 -> 2466
Globex - 2455.75-> 2464.25

Settlement 2465.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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9th September



For todays prep - see yesterdays prep! Basically sitting in the same range and expecting the same thing.



We built out the weeks range - so still watching 58.25 ->70.



Market is still rolling to December, we are still in the range - so plan today is same as yesterday.

Plan
- Expect a slow day
- Look for a trade off the open,
- After the open look for longs around 58.25 and shorts around 70.00
- no trades within 58.25-70
- beware of headfakes and take continuations outside the range only after a test (or iceberg to lean on)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2445.50 -> 2471.25
Value - 2458.35 -> 2466.75
S1 - 2440.25, R1 - 2493.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2455.75 / 2457.75 -> 2467
Value - 2459.75 -> 2463.25
Globex - 2456-> 2465.75

Settlement 2466.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400, 2480

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11th Sept



Rolling into December. Our 2 ranges are really merging into 1 range and we are at the top of it. As we are now past the holidays, first thing to look out for is whether we can escape this range, possibly with a move up to the end of the year.

All eyes on 2480, to see if we can pop the highs.



We are above last weeks high volume area, which is good for continuation upwards.



This just shows us the same thing. We've escaped last weeks range. We don't want to fall back into it but even if we do, we have a good chance of a decent down day.

Plan
===
- No bias
- longs above 2480, if we get a pop
- shorts as soon as this move up appears to have failed and we see some downside volume come in,
- very wary of headfakes above 2480 (last pop up was to 2486.75)
- other than that - it's wait & see if we get good participation and a bit of volatility

New levels this week - just the local ones but really we have almost 100 point range with not that much to play off in the middle.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2443.75 -> 2469.50
Value - 2457.75 -> 2465.75
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2455.25 / 2456.50 -> 2465 / 2465.75
Value - 2459.75 -> 2462.75
Globex - 2466.75 -> 2474

Settlement – 2461

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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12th September



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Rolling into December. Our 2 ranges are really merging into 1 range and we are at the top of it. As we are now past the holidays, first thing to look out for is whether we can escape this range, possibly with a move up to the end of the year.

Market didn't disappoint - it could be a headfake. Ideally I'd like to see a downside test to see if we can reject the old range. That I think, would bring in a lot of speculative buyers. We did see a lot of volume yesterday.



Not much use for the weekly profiles yet - we are above most of the trading from last week and just 1 day in this weeks profile.


Today looking for a technical day - so pullbacks to yesterdays range/value area or overnight high low.

Plan
- Early trade should be OK today
- Long bias - looking for a pullback to a common level for a high confidence long
- Expecting swings up and down but hoping for an early test and swing up to see the most speculators pile in
- Wary of any heavy absorption on the offer side, which would indicate that this move up is fake, it is just a little higher that the old high at 87 so far
- eye on volume too - a repeat of yesterdays high volume would be ideal

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2443.75 -> 2469.50
Value - 2457.75 -> 2465.75
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.75 /2474 -> 2487
Value - 2480 -> 2486.50
Globex - 2485 -> 2489.75

Settlement – 2488.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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13th September



A small move up yesterday, now we sit just below 2500. Other than that - in the same place as we were this time yesterday.



This doesn't add much - including for completeness.



Yesterday we had a morning trade setup but I didn't get a fill. We then tested the lows and had a move up. Both fit our 'look for a test' plan but neither gave us a pop/decent follow up. So we have yet to see a decent pop off a test. Saying that, volume is decent - almost 2M, so the market likes trading up here.

I'd still like to see a pullback to 2480

Plan
- low expectation day... go on - surprise me
- no strong intraday bias for the opening hours
- look for an early trade
- look for a test of YH/YL/VAL/VAH or overnight H/L
- be ready for any pop that occurs above 2500
- look to fade any range that forms

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2443.75 -> 2469.50
Value - 2457.75 -> 2465.75
S1 - 2446.50, R1 - 2472.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2485 /2487.75 -> 2494.50
Value - 2489.75 -> 2492.50
Globex - 2489 -> 2495.50

Settlement 2485.75

Long Term Levels - 2292.50, 2318.50, 2400.50, 2413.75, 2479.25

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