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DTs Pre Market Prep


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Updated January 7th 2019 by Jigsaw Trading
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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #1051 (permalink)
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26th July



Low volume still, we did push up through the top of this little range we've been in the last 5 days. This is a very tight range but then we are heading into August. It's not very clear and the danger is reading too much into the action.



We have 2 distributions for the week but really it's such a small range that it's not worth considering them separate. We do have to look out at 2472 for a reaction as we didn't spend much time there but it's also the middle of the weeks range so not a great spot. So I'll want to see something fairly obvious before trading any reaction from that point.



We can see that we popped up overnight yesterday and then went sideways. It's FOMC day today which means it's likely to be low volatility in the morning.

Plan
- Look for an early trade right off the open as FOMC malaise might kick in
- Look for reactions in the AM off yesterdays levels and 72 but look for something quite obvious
- Be prepared not to have much on in the AM, which means there might not be any trades
- Flat into FOMC and see if we can take a momentum move off it (although we are not expecting any surprises)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.50 -> 2478.75
Value - 2463.75 -> 2473.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.25 /2472.50 -> 2478.25
Value - 2475 -> 2478
Globex - 2472 ->2476.75

Settlement 2474

Today only - 2472

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1052 (permalink)
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27th July



We didn't get a boost from the FOMC, volume was about 1 million and we just traded the prior days range yesterday.



The upper distribution is growing out and holding. We'll be looking for this to hold, fade the extremes 2473 & 2478.75.



Not much to say other that Wednesday was same as Thursday

Plan

- Look for an early trade as it will probably revert to chop
- Look for signs of the short term range holding, fades at or beyond 2473 & 78.75
- This range is small and will break at some point, so the key is to avoid getting trapped while fading the range
- Look also at the usual tech levels overnight high/low, yesterdays high/low, yesterdays value area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.50 -> 2480.25
Value - 2468 -> 2479.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2471.50 -> 2478.50 / 2479.75
Value - 2474 -> 2477
Globex - 2473.25 ->2480

Settlement 2473.25

Today only - 2473 & 78.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1053 (permalink)
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28th July



A push down yesterday, so we broke the 2 day range but we are now back and testing the 7 day low, which is minor support (2461.50). Volume was decent which means there's people still around, even if there's not much for them to trade.



The volume profile shows a lower distribution this week, which tapers off around 2464. So above that I'm presuming we are going to travel back towards the weeks highs.



yesterday was a 24 point range which felt bigger because of recent low volatility. Looking to see if we can follow through with that volatility today.

Plan
- Longs above 64 (to top of range), Shorts below 61.50 on any downside momentum off the open
- Will be keeping an eye on volume/volatility. It'll be nice to see a repeat of yesterdays range but it's very likely to rever to choppy.
- Early trade only if there is a really obvious high volume node close to the open price

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2456.750 -> 2480.25
Value - 2467.25 -> 2479.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2457 -> 2480.50
Value - 2464.50 -> 2480.50
Globex - 2462.25 ->2472.50

Settlement 2464.25

Today only - 2461.25, 2464

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1054 (permalink)
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2nd August



Volume is still reasonable for the time of year but we are stuck in this range at all time highs.



No signs that we will break the range - fairly even distribution so far this week.



Just going over the same area.

Plan
- Trade the range - but look for an early trade off the open
- Watch this weeks range first - so possible fades around 66.25 and 75.50 then the larger rage 61.25-79
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays level
- Be patient if there's no trade off the open


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2465.25 -> 2477.25
Value - 2469.75 -> 2475.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.25 / 2468 -> 2475 / 2477.25
Value - 2470.50 -> 2474
Globex - 2472.50 ->2475.50

Settlement 2472.25

Today only - 61.25, 66.25, 75.50,79

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1055 (permalink)
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3rd August



Still in the narrow range and still rotating around it.



A very evenly distributed profile - not much to say on that other than it points to continuation of the range.



Yesterday was a very technical 'day trader' driven day. A reversal off the overnight high and we traversed the range top to bottom. So even though we are in a range, there's good opportunity.

Plan
- Trade the range - but look for an early trade off the open
- Watch this weeks range first - so possible fades around 64.25 and 77.25 then the larger rage 61.25-79
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels
- Be patient if there's no trade off the open,wait for an extreme


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.25
Value - 2468.75 -> 2474.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2475.75 / 2476
Value - 2465.75 -> 2472.75
Globex - 2467.75 ->2472.75

Settlement 2473.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1056 (permalink)
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4th August



Market still in the same range, it'll break at some point of course but until it does - same rules apply!



We are still in one single distribution for the week. A Friday break out is low probability, so we'll presume range bound for today. Looking at this I'd see fades below 67 and above 76



Not much to mention about this - other than to watch the daily highs/lows value highs/lows.

Plan
- Trade the range - but look for an early trade off the open
- Watch this weeks range first - so possible fades around the weeks range but also watch 67 and 76
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels
- Be patient if there's no trade off the open,wait for an extreme


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.25
Value - 2469.25 -> 2474.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2466.50 -> 2473 / 2474.50
Value - 2468.75 -> 2471.75
Globex - 2469.50 ->2471.75

Settlement 2471.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1057 (permalink)
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7th August




We are still happily trading the range - I have the range at 61-79.50 but it's more art than science - so around those areas.

Settlement on Friday was 1 whole tick away from Thursday settlement. So this is all pure intraday speculation in my opinion.



Last weeks profile shows we traded a couple of points within that each side, it is very evenly distributed. So it seems traders like trading here.

I think the value area is a bit misleading, most of the action was from 67-75 last week.



We had some initial volatility on Friday, which does highlight the need to change approach during the summertime.

We hit the top of the range early on, then reversed down from there and after that was chop.

Going in to today - we hit the top of the range overnight, so we might not see a test into the day session

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Join any moves to the downside as the range high has been tested
- Look for fades outside of the bulk of last weeks action 67.25 -> 75.50. Obviously that's within the overall range and it would be better if we could probe outside 61-79.50 but we couldn't get there last week so....
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.50
Value - 2469.25 -> 2474.75


Daily Numbers

Range - 2467.25 / 2469.25 -> 2477.75
Value - 2471.75 -> 2474.25
Globex - 2472 ->2477.50

Settlement 2472

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1058 (permalink)
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8th August



Still sticking in the overall range, close to the top right now so on the lookout for headfakes today before we roll over.



We popped last weeks high by a couple of ticks. It's held so far, no reaction either way.



A pretty dismal day today. Typical summer time action. Look out for volume dropping more today. Typically, we'll go down to 800k and below in the summer time. The action hasn't been that bad this summer relatively speaking, I think it may be time to think about abandoning the S&P for a few weeks. The next few days action should be our guide.

Plan
- Look for an early trade
- Watch out for low volume/indeterminate day
- Be aware of headfakes on any moves outside the range updside
- Look for fades outside of the bulk of last weeks action 67.25 -> 75.50. Obviously that's within the overall range and it would be better if we could probe outside 61-79.50 but we couldn't get there last week so....
- No trades in the middle - unless off overnight high/low or one of yesterdays levels


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2477.50
Value - 2469.25 -> 2474.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 2472 / 2473 -> 2478.25
Value - 2474 -> 2477
Globex - 2473.50 ->2478

Settlement 2477.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1059 (permalink)
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9th August



A big day yesterday - so there's still plenty of traders there. Back to the range though. Hard to have any bias on a day after such a move but as we are at the bottom of the range , we should work our way to the top.



I wouldn't read anything into the weekly profiles, the large distribution in the middle is just one range day.



Not much to read into the daily profiles either. I'll be looking for a reaction at yesterdays low but the value area doesn't count for much as we never really traded one area for long yesterday.

Plan
- Open mind today
- Look for continuation up as we are at the bottom of the range
- Look for a reaction at yesterdays low
- Other than that, look to see if we get decent volatility again and go with it, whichever direction
- Don't force it, if the volume/volatility is low

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2461.50 -> 2488.50
Value - 2469.50 -> 2481

Daily Numbers
Range - 2467.50 -> 2488.50
Value - 2471.50 -> 2486.50
Globex - 2461.50 ->2473.25

Settlement 2472.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1060 (permalink)
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