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DTs Pre Market Prep

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7th July



We pushed through the bottom of the range with high volume (1.8M). Last time we had a high volume move through the bottom of our range we bounced back up. So today looking to see if this is a headfake or not.



Above us we have high volume at 2423, so wary if you are long into that area.



The day session dropped less than 20 points. So not a huge sell off. This makes me more inclined to think we'll go back into the range.

Plan
- No bias
- Watching to see if we revert to the range or continue down
- looking for an early trade
- after that, looking to follow the volume, short below yesterdays low (2405.25) and longs above the old range low (2416.75)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2405.25 -> 2436.50
Value - 2419.75 -> 2431.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2405.25 -> 2422 / 2430.50
Value - 2412.25 -> 2420.25
Globex 2407.50-> 2411.75

Settlement 2408.50

Today only - 2416.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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11th July



Still working up slowly towards the top of our range. Volume was extremely low yesterday, less than 900k contracts. Possibly the summer slowdown and possibly just the fact we are in them middle of a fairly old range and there's a lack of interest generally.



So far this week, we are trading around the major distribution from last week (2423 - 2430.25).



We still had a 10.5 point range yesterday. Not too bad and upward progression. Right now we are in the middle of the range though.

Plan
- Long bias - looking for range to complete upside (2443.25)
- Looking for an early trade
- Look for fade trades at 2423 (down to yesterdays low 2419), 2430.25, otherwise proceed with caution as we are in a choppy area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2405.25 -> 2436.50
Value - 2418.25 -> 2431.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2419.25 -> 2430
Value - 2424-> 2430
Globex 2422.50-> 2427.75

Settlement 2424.50

Today only - 2423, 2430.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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13th July



Back to the top of the range, so now looking for the market to roll over and head back to the bottom of the range. Looking for headfakes on any push up through the top of the range and long only on high volume moves.



Looking at the weekly profile, the lower distribution tops out around 2429, so caution if we are short going in to 29 as it may hold.



We do have an upper distribution and so if volume is low, we may just spin around the top here before the market decides if it wants to drop back into the range or move to new highs.

Plan
- Simple day - watching for the usual pushing and shoving at the extreme of the range, looking to get on board only when direction has become clear.
- continuations up only on high volume
- patience is key - volume yesterday was only 770k contracts, which favors the range holding but also favors not much happening
- Careful short into 29 and long from there if it holds

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2446.50
Value - 2417.25 -> 2429.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2422.50 / 2434.75 -> 2443.75
Value - 2438.50 -> 2442.50
Globex 2439.525 -> 2446.50

Settlement 2440

Today only - 2429

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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14th July



Low volume, still at the top of the range. We've pushed through it but not as much as the prior pushes through. Right now, there is no reason to think we'll make another push up to new highs. Trading will be tricky till this area is resolved one way or the other.



We are building an upper distribution from 39-46 so we can look at fade=ing those prices short term while waiting for the overall range to be resolved.



The daily charts aren't much help other than to confirm the narrow range.

Plan
- Simple day - watching for the usual pushing and shoving at the extreme of the range, looking to get on board only when direction has become clear.
- Try to get on board with an early trade
- look for fade trades around 39 and 46
- continuations up only on high volume
- patience is key still
- Careful short into 29 and long from there if it holds

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2447.25
Value - 2413.25 -> 2441.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2439 -> 2447
Value - 2442.25 -> 2446.25
Globex 2442.50 -> 2447.25

Settlement 2445.50

Today only - 2429, 2439, 2446

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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17th July



A break to the upside - but on really low volume. We did break to new all time highs but on low volume. That has me leaning towards a fall back to the range. Still - all options are on the table and having a hard bias never makes for good trades, to the plan for Monday is to look for signs of whether we'll continue up or fall back into the range and play accordingly.



The upper distribution from last week tops out around 46. So if we do move down, we may find support there.



Monday will be a day to also watch for the usual daily levels - high/low/val/vah. Any decent retrace to a common level that holds should bring in buyers and a move we can jump on.

Plan
- No bias - waiting for signs we'll have another push up or if we'll fall back to the range
- will go long on any retracement to a common level
- would prefer shorts below Fridays low but will jump short moves
- a day for waiting for clarity and not jumping at shadows

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2461.25
Value - 2413.25 -> 2442.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2442 /2444.25 -> 2461.25
Value - 2447 -> 2457
Globex (prep done before globex open)

Settlement 2445.50

Today only - 2456

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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18th July



We have move up a little - but I still see this as "top of range unresolved". We didn't move much and volume is low. So it's not as if we can say it's a clear break at this point. I still favor a fall back into the range - but I am not putting money on that. I'll just wait for resolution and trade the resulting move.



Not much yet from the weekly profile. The upper distribution from last week tops out around 46. So if we do move down, we may find support there.



This does look like a range week setting up. So I'm watching yesterdays range/value for cues. If we look at yesterday - the overnight range held, so a technical day but a choppy one. Overnight we've pretty much stayed in the range.

Plan
- No bias - waiting for signs we'll have another push up or if we'll fall back to the range
- will fade common levels today (yday hi/lo, yday value, overnight hi/low).
- other than that, waiting for a break to jump on
- looking for headfakes on any breaks out of the small range we've marked so far this week. Very cautious on taking continuation trades with this low volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2410.25 -> 2461.25
Value - 2413.25 -> 2442.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2454 /2454.25 -> 2460.50
Value - 2456.25 -> 2459.25
Globex 2454.25 -> 2460.50
Settlement 2458.50

Today only - 2456

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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19th July

An early prep again as I'm off to Lego Land tomorrow. That's about as exciting as it gets on Planet Peter Davies....



We are staying above the old range but volume is dropping, so I still see us as being in the same situation - "top of range unresolved". Still waiting to see if we'll drop into the range or push to new highs. I favor the former but will trade when it's clear.



The weekly profile shows us trading around the weeks range. The range wont hold forever and any initial move out might of this weeks range shouldn't have us jumping on that as a sustained move - especially if we break the weeks range upside - it may falsely appear to have the energy to continue up.



We has a push down through Mondays range but it was just a headfake down and we reverted to the range. Basically what we were on the lookout for in the prep yesterday...


Quoting 
- looking for headfakes on any breaks out of the small range we've marked so far this week. Very cautious on taking continuation trades with this low volume

Plan
- No bias - waiting for signs we'll have another push up or if we'll fall back to the range
- will fade common levels today (yday hi/lo, yday value, overnight hi/low).
- other than that, waiting for a break to jump on
- looking for headfakes on any breaks out of the small range we've marked so far this week. Very cautious on taking continuation trades with this low volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448 -> 2461
Value - 2455 -> 2459.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2454 /2454.25 -> 2460.50
Value - 2456.25 -> 2459.25
Globex 2454.25 -> 2460.50

Settlement 2458.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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20th July



An interesting day yesterday - we've had a decent push up, on low volume but still better volume than the prior days. It was also a fairly small range day. So it's still a bit of a coin toss. I'd like to see a pullback but will have to follow any moves up if they occur as that's the direction of the market. I see it as weak upside but I can't fight it.

First place I'll be looking for a pullback is the high of the prior few days around 61.25 and below that the old high at 43.25.



From a profile perspective, we also have a distribution below us with a top around 60.00. So watching that on a pullback too.



On the daily charts, I'll also be looking at yesterdays value area (which has held overnight) as well as the highs/lows from the day session and overnight.

Plan
- Long bias
- Would like to see a pullback to 60-61.25, 43.25 or a common level
- If no pullback, will try to scale into a position on the long side off any backstop in the order flow that appears
- For short side, I'll take a short only on a major shift in delta and decent downside volume
- Overall, I really want the market to show it's hand before engaging today

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448 -> 2472
Value - 2454 -> 2460.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2457.75 /2461.25 -> 2471
Value - 2463.50 -> 2469
Globex 2469.25-> 2472

Settlement – 2471.50
Today only - 43.25, 60-61.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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24th July



We have a minor potential support level at 2461.75 - so eyes on that over the next few hours. If it holds, then I think we should see some decent upside participation (for the time of year). If not - I'll be watching the high of the old range for a hold and if that fails, bias goes short with expectation of a move to low 2400's.



The weekly profile shows we are between 2 nodes. 2460 below and 2470 above. Looking for a test of either of these areas to hold too. Again, waiting for the hold and then the following participation for a momentum play in the short term.



We have pretty much held Fridays low overnight, which is neutral and pointing towards range day.

Overall , we have a few nearby technical levels to play off, which might give us a short term bounce. Other than that, not really seeing much in terms of a longer term play. Volume is low after the break up and moves are fairly weak. So a short term game today.

Plan
- slight upside bias
- look for a trade off the open and watch out for chop after
- watch the technical levels - overnight high, yesterdays high/low, value high/low, 2460, 2461.75, 2460
- go with any bounces off those levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448-> 2476.50
Value - 2451.50 -> 2470

Daily Numbers
Range - 2462.75 /2470.25 -> 2475.25
Value - 2465 -> 2469
Globex 2463.75-> 2470.50

Settlement – 2469.75

Today only - 2460, 2461.75, 2470

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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25 July

An early prep 'cause I have to go to the Thai Embassy in London tomorrow AM...



Not much happened yesterday, no new prices discovered.... so for todays prep - we could read yesterdays...


Quoting 
We have a minor potential support level at 2461.75 - so eyes on that over the next few hours. If it holds, then I think we should see some decent upside participation (for the time of year). If not - I'll be watching the high of the old range for a hold and if that fails, bias goes short with expectation of a move to low 2400's.



From yesterday too...


Quoting 
The weekly profile shows we are between 2 nodes. 2460 below and 2470 above. Looking for a test of either of these areas to hold too. Again, waiting for the hold and then the following participation for a momentum play in the short term.



Yesterday we were looking to play as a technical day and in the end we held the overnight high and low. We also got a decent first leg off the open. So it was what we wanted to see.

We could be starting a range week in which case, looking for headfakes at the extremes as we test Mondays range. I still have the same overall opinion.

Plan
- slight upside bias
- look for a trade off the open and watch out for chop after
- watch the technical levels - overnight high, yesterdays high/low, value high/low, 2460, 2461.75, 2460
- go with any bounces off those levels

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2448-> 2476.50
Value - 2451.50 -> 2470

Daily Numbers
Range - 2463.25 -> 2470.50
Value - 2465.50 -> 2469
Globex - too early to note levels

Settlement 2469.50

Today only - 2460, 2461.75, 2470

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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