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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1031 (permalink)
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20th June



New all time highs yesterday. Volume was 1.3 million - pretty average. As you can see - we pushed up but it's not much of a move away from the overall range... so let's zoom in....




I'd normally be looking for a pullback to test the top of the old range - which we can define as somewhere between 37.50 and 43.25. Still - it's not much of a pullback, so I may be trying to force my method onto the market here.

Bottom line is we need to figure out today if this is just range extension and we will drop back into dead trading or if we are marching up to newer highs. We do expect moves and then consolidation in an overall move up but we also expect a decent gap between consolidation areas. When the gaps are no longer significant, we have to consider we may be due a longer term retracement. It's too early to tell now - but bear it in mind as we progress.



From a profile perspective we have the upper distribution from last week topping out around 2438. In line with the 37.50-43.24 area above.



After moving up yesterday, we consolidated 44.75 -> 50.75. That area is holding overnight. It may be there won't be a downside test as this zone has held.

Plan
- Early trade is on
- Look to play any move up from here based on the 44.75-50.75 consolidation zone holding
- On moves down, look for a hold at 37.50->43.25 to play long
- No trades between 43.25 - > 50.75 with the exception of an open trade
- Below 37.50, consider a move back into the range and a move back to 2418 (not all in one day though)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.75 -> 2443.25
Value - 2419.50 -> 2434.25
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers

Range - 2432.75 / 2438.50 -> 2451.50
Value - 2445.25 -> 2449.75
Globex 2447.50 -> 2451

Today only - 37.50-> 43.25, 44.75-50.75

Settlement 2447.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1032 (permalink)
Legendary  Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
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21st June



Now we are back into the range so expecting us to move to 16.25 where we'll likely move up and continue in this range. Not 100% certainty of course, it's just my hypothesis going in.



Not too much to read into the profiles, we are well and truly in the old range, hence me thinking it's an extension.



Looking closer, I'll be watching yesterdays range/value range - you can see the value low has held overnight, so I'm also going to look at 42.75 - the late pullback yesterday as potential resistance.

Plan
- Short bias but not married to it
- Early trade is on
- Market gapped down, if we open down, we may see an initial rebalance up off the open - be wary of any moves up as they may not last
- Saying that we dropped 20 points yesterday, so a snap back is possible - so longs on high volume
- Watching value low/42.75 on any moves up - but will join any move down, even on average volume


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2429.25 -> 2451.50
Value - 2436.50 -> 2450
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2434 -> 2446.5 / 2451
Value - 2437.75 -> 2443.25
Globex 2429.25 -> 2438

Today only - 42.75

Settlement 2437.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1033 (permalink)
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22nd June



Now back into the range from the past few weeks. So expecting a lazy trip to test the bottom of the range - 2416. Not necessarily in one day though.



Not much to see here - we do have 3 distinct distributions last week and where we have gone overnight is just to the top of the bottom distribution. That gives us a weak case for moving upside from here.



Yesterday day session was flat, all the move down was in the prior overnight session. We are still in that range. So I'm wary of us getting stuck between 28-38 today.

Plan
- Bias still short overall, low expectations today
- Early trade is on
- No trades between 28-38
- For shorts - will be looking to fade 38 or wait for a break below 27
- No real plan for longs as we are still in the middle of the overall range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2429.50 -> 2442
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2434 -> 2446.5 / 2451
Value - 2437.75 -> 2443.25
Globex 2429.25 -> 2438

Today only - 28/38

Settlement 2433.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1034 (permalink)
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23rd July



Expectations were low yesterday and we weren't disappointed. A slow first 90 mins then a break up and another range before a breakdown in the afternoon. We had a "no trade between 28-38" rule and the range was 30-39.



The lower distribution is now 29.50-> 39.25. I'm still not interested in the middle of that.



Pretty much the same picture here.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Look for a trade off the open as it is likely to die after that
- Range trades at 29.50, 39.25
- Looking for a break of this range for a stop run and possible longer term trade - but not really expecting that to happen on a Friday
- If nothing happens by 11am - going to call it quits!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2429.50 -> 2439.50
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2428 / 2430 -> 2439
Value - 2433.25 -> 2438.75
Globex 2431 -> 2435

Today only - 29.50, 39.25

Settlement 2434.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1035 (permalink)
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June 26th



Still in the range - so still on range fades until it breaks. Volume was low on Friday - reflecting a lack of interest and indicator more time in the range.



Last weeks major distribution was 2429.50 -> 2439 but the top image here shows the bottom of the range closer to 2416.



We are at the top of the range now - the last extension up went to 2451.50 which turned out to be a heafake. If we go there and roll over again, we'll consider that as the new range high.

Plan
- Another low expectation day
- Look for an early trade
- We are at the range high in terms of recent action - look for a roll back down to 29/16 anywhere from here
- Not interested in longs unless we get over 2150 as the chance of any extension of the range up being a headfake is high. Exception would be if a retrace down to Fridays high/value high held (2438) and we lifted from there.
- Interested in shorts anywhere between here and 2150.
- Prepared not to make any trades today

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2430 -> 2439
S1 - 2425 R1 - 2448.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2428.25 -> 2438.75
Value - 2432.50 -> 2438
Globex 2430.25 -> 2441.25

Settlement 2440.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1036 (permalink)
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27th June



Back in the range,not a terrible day yesterday because we probed outside the range, failed to extend and fell back in and got a 13 point drop. As per yesterdays plan, we were interested in shorts anywhere from 41 to 51. A big range but we have to play the had we are dealt. As it was the rollover was fairly obvious by the time we got down to 46.25 off the 47.50 high. Not selling the top but also not taking a lot of heat...



The bottom of the overall range is 2416 but we seem to be honoring the lower distribution from last week which is more like 29. So while longs at 29 are ok - I think we have to be aware that this could break and we'd still be holding the longer term range.



After the drop yesterday, we ranged 35.25-> 41.50 (ish). We want to see that hold and for us to push down for good downside trades and a possible break of 29.

The problem we have is that we aren't that far off 29, so from a range completion standpoint we are possibly done to the downside in relation to that large distribution last wee. The top of the longer term range isn't that far off either. So today, we aren't looking at great trade location at all. So a trade off the open might be the best deal. If we can break last weeks low we have a clearer picture of a range completed to the upside and traversing to it's low.

Small, overlapping ranges - pain in the rear...

Plan
- Looking for an early trade
- Shorts below 35.25 - caution on short into 29
- Will go short below 29 too with a view to getting to 16-18
- Not sure about the long side at the moment - but as per yesterday I don't want to be long into the highs

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2428 -> 2451.50
Value - 2430 -> 2439
S1 - 2425 R1 - 2448.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2430 / 2434 -> 2447.50
Value - 2435.50 -> 2441.50
Globex 2432.25 -> 2437.25

Settlement 2434

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1037 (permalink)
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28th June



Hopefully readers of the log weren't too shocked that 29 held initially, then when we broke it later, we went to 16.... (pats self on the back and does victory laps around the trading desk)

So now at the bottom of the range, if we lift, we can presume range is holding and that participation to the long side back to the top of the range will be healthy. The best scenario for us is that the range breaks as that should give us more volatility.

So bottom of the range - be ware of extensions and false breakouts and then play it when it's clearly resolved....

If it does break down my target is the older range top 2395.

For those that don't know - the headfake would be a push below 16 and then absorption on the bid side 4-8 ticks below the break where sellers get trapped, then a swift move back into the range.



We can see that we are still in the large distribution from 2 weeks ago. We like trading here, so we can't necessarily expect any upside move to be a "pop" - it's back towards 41 if we do move up but it may be choppy,.



We can see the extended move when 29 broke, which is what we'd expect on the break of any range.

Plan
- No bias - waiting for the range low to be resolved on way or the other
- Will buy a headfake to the downside but with a tight stop while still trying to avoid traps at such a visually obvious area
- Basically looking for volume away from the 16 area on either side to take a "go with" trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.25 -> 2447.50
Value - 2429.25 -> 2442.75
S1 - 2425 R1 - 2448.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2416.50 -> 2437 / 2437.25
Value - 2424.50 -> 2437
Globex 2415.25 -> 2421

Settlement 2420.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1038 (permalink)
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3rd July

Today isn't the best day to trade with the 4th July holiday tomorrow, volume will likely be quite low.



Still stuck in this range, so still looking to play range trades. That means a long bias till the top has been tested.



The weekly profile doesn't help us much - its pretty evenly distributed.



The daily profiles show us danger of getting caught in the 2418-2429 range. Just keep an eye on this - we may trade within it today as we are expecting low participation. It's more Wednesday that we'll have to be wary of it spoiling the whole week.

Plan
- low expectation day with holidays tomorrow
- look for an early trade
- play the long side if we can get above 29
- expect downside breaks to be headfakes

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2402.25 -> 2447.50
Value - 2415.75 -> 2437.26

Daily Numbers
Range - 2414.75 / 2418.50 -> 2429.75
Value - 2419.50 -> 2425.50
Globex 2421.50 -> 2429.75

Settlement 2421

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1039 (permalink)
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5th July



Still in the range, lows have been tested, so presumption is for us to move to opposite end of the range.



As per Monday - last weeks profile is very even and this weeks contains a pre-holiday and a holiday day.



Again - not much to see here because of the holiday.

Holiday weeks are tough because the history of prior days isn't that reliable as the actual amount of trade is so low and we can reasonably expect that swingers didn't leave so many trades on over the holiday period. We need volume to return, that could happen today or it could take a few days to recover.

Plan
- Not much to play off because of the holiday
- Looking for an early trade and an overall long bias, expecting the range to hold
- Other that that it's a wait and see day - wait and see if real volume comes in and where it wants to take us.

No levels today as they aren't that relevant being on such low volume.

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1040 (permalink)
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6th July



We are having trouble lifting off the lows. Volume was still a bit low yesterday at 1.2M contracts. On the lookout for more volume coming in today, sort of presuming we had the 4th July 'hangover' yesterday and some traders still on vacation.



An ugly profile so far this week - indicating that we may continue to range 2423-2430.



Same picture here - in a narow range short term.

Plan
- Looking for an early trade
- Still biased upside overall for range completion upside
- No trades between 2423 and 2430 - looking to fade those prices
- Will take continuations outside of 23-30 only if volume picks up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2419.25 -> 2436.50
Value - 2424 -> 2429.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2419.15 -> 2432.25
Value - 2426 -> 2431.50
Globex 2423.50-> 2430.50

Settlement – 2428

Today only - 2423/2430

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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