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DTs Pre Market Prep


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Updated January 7th 2019 by Jigsaw Trading
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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #1021 (permalink)
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24th May



Still at the top, still waiting for resolution...


Quoting 
Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



We have a very narrow upper distribution - what we dont want (but it most likely) is to rotate around and expand that distribution.



Volume was down to a million and as we can see, some upside progression has slowed.

Plan
- No bias. Patience key
- Looking for an early trade off the open
- Looking for the range to become obvious and then play off that
- Will follow a down move off the open, given yesterdays high has held so far

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2378.25 -> 2399.50
Value - 2387.50 -> 2399
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2386.75 / 2392 -> 2399.50
Value - 2395.50 -> 2398.50
Globex 2394.75 -> 2399.25

Settlement 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1022 (permalink)
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25th May



We broke upside but overnight, so I'm still calling this 'unresolved'. The overnight moves are mostly as a result of a little craziness we saw in the markets (especially Crude) during the OPEC meetings.

Volume overall was low yesterday, so another reason not to buy into this spike up overnight.



Looking below, we can see the major distribution in the middle of this week tops out around 2399. So an eye on that if we move down.



Yesterday was very narrow but we did make some headway to the upside. We might take back the upside gains before the open, if not - be wary of a move down at the open.

Plan
- Watch for a move down off the open if we haven't taken back the overnight gains
- look for an early trade
- expecting low volatility until this top is resolved, no bias until that happens
- A wait and see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2378.25 -> 2412.50
Value - 2383.50 -> 2402
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2394.75 / 2396 -> 2404
Value - 2397.25 -> 2400.25
Globex 2401.25 -> 2412.50

Settlement – 2402

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1023 (permalink)
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5th June

Sorry I was out last week - daughter got appendicitis and ended up in hospital...




Market is marching up - so bias is long but a pullback would be nice. Volume is high and so any breaks upside are worth following. I do expect it to revert to range and that could happen any time, so eyes on any drops in volume.



As we can see, the prior 2 weeks had major distribution topping out at 2417 and we've mad it to 2440 since then. Not a huge break and at this point it could just well be an extension of the old range, so I'd really like to see us make more headway towards 2500 this week. Then we can say the old range is probably broken and hopefully we'll have better behavior (more volatility) wherever we end up. My guess is - we'll get where we are going and revert to tight churny days again.



Not much happened overnight but we have held Fridays value low.

Plan
- Long Bias
- Looking for an early trade - not because there won't be much on later but because we have decent volatility and the opportunity may be there.
- Will watch Fridays range/value extremes - primarily looking for longs
- if we move down, watching for 2417 for a hold
- will trade both sides but just much more confident in scaling into a long. So shorts will be smaller trades unless we see huge volume on downside moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2402.75 -> 2439.75
Value - 2403.75 -> 2420.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2327 -> 2439.75
Value - 2432.50 -> 2439
Globex 2433 -> 2437

Settlement 2437.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1024 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
5th June

Sorry I was out last week - daughter got appendicitis and ended up in hospital...

Hope she's better now?

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  #1025 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Hope she's better now?

She's good now thanks!

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  #1026 (permalink)
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6th June



Well it is summer but ouch - what a drop in volume yesterday. I'm still looking for a drop to 2417 to hold but we really need to see some decent volume come in to take this onwards.




Not much to read into this other than there's little traded between here and 2417. Any push down could see us drop to 17 pretty quickly (and a break upside could also see us pop)



5.5 points. I think it's time to look for your summertime instrument if you can't trade the chop. We have pushed down overnight, so look for an initial reaction upwards off the open if we are still below yesterdays low at 9:30am EST.

Plan
- Low expectation in terms of volume, so....
- If we open below yesterdays range - look to short a move back to the low/value low
- Look for a pick up in pace on a moves down and scale in if it does (target 2417)
- For upside, unless we have a decent push down first, I'm looking for the high to break before going long
- If we do get good volume coming in - the game changes to following it but still not interested in engaging within yesterdays range


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2402.75 -> 2439.75
Value - 2403.75 -> 2420.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2433/2433.50 -> 2439
Value - 2436 -> 2438.50
Globex 2429.50 -> 2435.50

Settlement 2434.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1027 (permalink)
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7th June



Volume was more respectable yesterday, Market was sideways with a decent opportunity off the open and into the close. Tough in the middle though.



We have expanded the volume profile and it's evenly distributed - which is indicative or rangebound trade.



A poor day yesterday but not bad technically. We traded down to the overnight low and we had absorption at the lows, then we moved up to the prior days value area, then we moved down from there. So observing typical day speculator zones. So a couple of our scenarios played out

Plan
- Very Low expectation day
- Looking for longs at or below 2429 and shorts at or above 2437.50 - will not trade in the middle
- will try for an early trade off the open
- also watching overnight hi/lo & yesterdays hi/low value area


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2426.25 -> 2439.25
Value - 2429.50 -> 2435.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2426.25 / 2427 -> 2435.75
Value - 2429.75 -> 2433.25
Globex 2428.25 -> 2433.25

Settlement 2430.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1028 (permalink)
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15th June

Just spend a few days in Cambodia and Laos... now back to it... Note new levels below for September contract



We had some volatility this week, and we are now just above what I'd figure to be a weak support level. So eyes on 2416.25. Below that we have the top of the Feb-June range at 2396 - so an eye on 2396-2400.



From a daily chart perspective, it looks like we have good downside momentum. From the profile, we can see very evenly distributed trade. So the volume profile looks more set up for a range week.



We have moved down overnight, so first order of the day is to see if we can hold onto the move down

Plan
===
- a wait and see day - we are just above week support and the profile indicates rotation up - BUT we have downside momentum
- Any early moves up may just be rebalancing, so don't take much heat on any longs
- Either way - it does look set for decent volatility, so for me, I'll take a gamble on that. No early trades and look to follow momentum

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.75 -> 2443.25
Value - 2423.25 -> 2439.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2425.75 -> 2442 / 2443.25
Value - 2432.75 -> 2439.25
Globex 2418.25 -> 2435.50

Settlement 2435.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1029 (permalink)
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16th June



Yesterday played out as expected we hit the minor support and turned up towards the top of the range we'd marked on the profile. Volume was good 1.8 million.



We've moved up to the topmost distribution and stalled for now.



Yesterday day session did see us moving up but just within the range. The thing I got wrong about yesterday was saying I'd avoid the early trade and an absolute beauty set up....

Plan
- looking for a roll anywhere from here 2436-38.25, above that looking for the top of the week to be tested.
- will be looking primarily for a run downside to be initiated
- only interested in longs above the weeks range
- will take the early trade if it sets up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.25 -> 2443.25
Value - 2419.25 -> 2434.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2416.25 -> 2432 / 2435.50
Value - 2422.50 -> 2430.50
Globex 2429.75 -> 2436.75

Settlement – 2436.25

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  #1030 (permalink)
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19th June



Starting the week in the middle of the past few weeks range. It's early here, so the overnight session hasn't developed much.



Looking at this - the upper distribution tapers off around 2438 and lower around 2419. So fade trades possible around those areas.

The range spans 2 weeks, it'll break at some point - but this year we have sat in ranges for an extended periods, so presumption is rangebound. This range is big enough that we can wait for the hold before jumping in.



From a daily perspective, we have gapped up and are now 5 points above settlement. We are climbing away from yesterdays range, and just a couple of points from 2438.


Plan

- Low expectation day
- Look for an early trade off the open
- Expect rangebound behavior and fades around 2438 and 2419
- Saying that, we have gapped up, so we can't discount a break of the range the the upside
- If we do continue upwards away from Fridays day session high, take a 'go with' trade above 2438
- Look for any sign of a hold on a pullback down to Fridays high/value high

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2416.75 -> 2443.25
Value - 2419.50 -> 2434.25
S1 - 2417.50, R1 - 2443.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2420.25 -> 2432.50 / 2436.75
Value - 2423.25 -> 2429.25
Globex 2432.75 -> 2436.50

Settlement 2431

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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