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DTs Pre Market Prep

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24th April



A gap up overnight - so I'm now biased towards a move to the high of the range.



First order of the day - is whether we fall back and fill the gap. Other than that, we are in the middle of the overall range, so not expecting a one-way day.



Gap fill targets are potentially at 2353 (to Fridays high) or 2358.25 (last weeks high)

Plan
- Careful during the first few minutes. It could be volatile at the open
- Shorts below the overnight low with targets to 58.25 and 53
- Longs on high volume moves up, but only after the first 15 mins

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2322.75 -> 2358.25
Value 2333.25 -> 2348.75
S1 - 2331.25, R1 - 2360.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2340.50 / 2353 -> 2356
Value - 2345 -> 2350
Globex 2365.25 -> 2374

Settlement 2373.75

Today - 2353, 2358.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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25th April



We managed to hold the gap up yesterday but didn't do much else. So today we are looking for the same things - the gap to fill in or to see buyers come in and take us up to 2400.



The weekly profiles aren't much use today, apart from highlighting the gap.



The daily profiles show we've stayed in the overnight range from Sunday 65.25 -> 76.75. This is (obviously) how range weeks start. Any trades in the middle of the range are likely to be tricky and that area will be more toxic the more days we stay there. So for now, watching the extremes for a break and playing back into the range if it doesn't break.

Plan
- low expectation day
- Try to take a trade off the open as there may not be much opportunity later on
- Look to trade the extremes of the range. Continuations outside the range only on high volume
- Be wary of headfakes - absorption on offer side 4-8 ticks through the high (bid side through the low)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2322.75 -> 2358.25
Value 2333.25 -> 2348.75
S1 - 2331.25, R1 - 2360.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2365.25 /2365.75 -> 2374 / 2376.75
Value - 2345 -> 2350
Globex 2368.25 -> 2375

Settlement 2370

Today - 2353, 2358.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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26th April



Almost at 2400, so expecting it to roll over at some point back to the low of the range. If it does break through, I'll wait for a pullback to the top of the range before being long biased again.



We pushed up again yesterday and are now building volume above. So we have 2 distributions. Watching both the low of the upper distribution (2382.75) and the high of the lower distribution (2375) as potential support points. Note that if 82.75 does break, we could get to 75 very quickly as we didn't trade much between those prices.



The 82.75 area is significant so far overnight and I'd also keep an eye on 2380 on any moves down.

Plan
===
- We are at the top of the range, so the roll could come any time.
- Watch 2382.75, 2380 and 2375 for a hold on any moves down
- Once past 75 to the downside, look for more aggressive selling towards the range low
- Cautious long above 2400 as the range is complete

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2365.25 -> 2389.25
Value 2365.25 -> 2379.25
S1 - 2331.25, R1 - 2360.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2368.25 /2377.50 -> 2389.25
Value - 2382.75 -> 2386.75
Globex 2382.25 -> 2386.26

Settlement 2385

Today - 2382.25, 2380, 2375

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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Holiday here, so no prep!

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2nd May



We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



Yesterday was a low volume day with most of Europe closed. So while trying not to read too much into that - we did start the week trading around the bulk of last weeks action. Watching 79.25 and 88.50 and not too keen to trade in the middle.



A lot of overlap in recent sessions. So again, not looking to trade in the middle of it.

Plan
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 79.25 and 88.50 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2365.25 -> 2395.75
Value 2375.25 -> 2394.25
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2377 /2380.75 -> 2390.75
Value - 2384.25 -> 2389.25
Globex 2384.25 -> 2388.25

Settlement 2385.50

Today - 2379.25, 2388.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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3rd May



Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.

And we are in exactly the same state today! We traded the same area and settled 1 tick higher!



We can see that so far this week, we are still trading around the large distribution from last week. So again watching 79.25 and 88.50 and not too keen to trade in the middle.



Yesterday we were watching 88.50 (top of chop area) and we got to 88.75 before moving down. We never got to 79.25 to the downside. We got a short but not much more. A 7 point range and less than 1 million contracts traded. As such, I'm not looking for more levels to trade off - but feeling vindicated about sitting back and letting this play out.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 79.25 and 88.50 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2377 -> 2390.75
Value - 2382.50 -> 2387
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2381.75 -> 2388.75
Value - 2383 -> 2386.50
Globex 2381.25 -> 2386.25

Settlement 2385.75

Today - 2379.25, 2388.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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4th May



We are in the same spot as the past 2 days, so let's repeat.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



The range is widening, so I am looking at 2381.50 and 2387.25 as the extremes and not looking to do much within that.



Yesterday we had 79.25 as the chop low and we moved down to 75.50 before moving up, and now we are at the chop high (87.25 from above). So from this few days perspective we could roll down any time but a push up and a roll wuold be nicer for us in terms of potential to the downside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 81.50 and 87.25 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2375.50 -> 2390.75
Value - 2382 -> 2387
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2386 / 2386.25
Value - 2379.25 -> 2383.25
Globex 2381.25 -> 2387

Settlement – 2383.25

Today - 2381.50, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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5th May



Well that week sucked. Certainly in terms of range but if you were watching the range and profiles, we actually had good opportunity on most days.

Let's just repeat the recap of where we are. It's been the same each day this week as we've been in the same place each day.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



The range filled out some more yesterday, so the chop zone is now 2381.25 to 2387



Yesterday we had the chop area at 2381.50 -> 2387.25. We opened and went 2 ticks through the high of the chop area before reversing down to 2381.25, 1 tick below the chop area. We then moved up. So those were our early opportunities. After that we had a drive down towards the weeks low, failed to get there and popped up again.

So while it was an ugly day, we had some good places to enter.

Today, same deal again - no trades between 81.50 and 87.25, presume the range is holding, be on the lookout for a break. Note though - that when we range like this all week - Friday is usually pretty poor.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Waiting for a break - whether that's today or in a number of days time, it's hard to know.
- At a major inflection point at the same time, so wary of headfakes
- No trading between 81.50 and 87.25 unless it's off the open
- A wait & see day - there's going to be good opportunity when this breaks, so waiting for that

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2390.75
Value - 2381.75-> 2386.75
S1 - 2365.75, R1 - 2394.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2376 -> 2387.75 / 2390.75
Value - 2381.75 -> 2386.25
Globex 2379 -> 2387

Settlement 2385.50

Today - 2381.50, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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8th May



We are now at the top of the range, we haven't broken out and volume was low on Friday. No need to get too excited but this might be enough to finally wake up the market.

So one more time - a reminder of what we are looking for at the top.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



If we do push down as well as the old high, we should also be on the lookout where traded most last week. So eyes on 2387.25 if we move down.



We had a push up on Friday that has continued today. We may have rolled over already.

Plan
- At the top, now looking for volume to confirm a rollover or continuation
- Take an early trade as we may just move sideways 'undecided'
- Higher probability longs will be reacting to a pullback down to 2400 and 87.25
- Really a wait and see day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2399.25
Value - 2381.25-> 2387.25
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2379 / 2385 -> 2395.75
Value - 2387 -> 2390.50
Globex 2392.25 -> 2403.75

Settlement 2397.75

Today - 2400, 2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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9th May



We are still 'tickling the top of the range'. Still waiting for a reaction in the market big enough for people to jump on board.


Quoting 
We are at the top of the range, not hit the top yet but this is a line in the sand. So we have to look out for a headfake up, a reversal down from here OR a break of the range upside and a move up to new highs.

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.

Yesterday we saw volume tail off again with less than 1 million contracts traded. Traders are there but they just aren't engaging at this point. We need some sort of event - either a price move or news event to give the market a nudge.



Here we have last weeks profile and Mondays profile, we need to escape Mondays range today or the market will be inclined to trade around it for the rest of the week. That's not necessarily a bad thing, so as we go into today we can look for shorts above 97 and longs below 93. If we break down, we can look for the market to hold the top of last weeks range.



Looking at the daily profiles, it does appear that we may have rolled over from the all time high. There's just not been enough volume traded to confirm this yet. If people were speculating that the top had held, we'd be seeing decent participation to the downside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Presume any pushes up are fake unless accompanied with significant volume
- downside moves could represent completion of the range above, be wary until we get past 87.25
- watch for a range around 93-97, fade the extremes but give room for the range to expand
- Early trades off the open would be good as we may lose volatility as the day progresses

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2375.50 -> 2399.25
Value - 2381.25-> 2387.25
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2389.75 -> 2397.75 / 2403.75
Value - 2392 -> 2395
Globex 2393 -> 2396.25

Settlement 2395

Today - 2400, 2387.25, 2393, 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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