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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #991 (permalink)
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Lost a friend on Friday and my heads still not set for Trading - will take a few days off..

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  #992 (permalink)
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  #993 (permalink)
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10th April



Markets still quite narrow, even with the Syria thing going on. We are potentially in a period of increased news risk so an eye on the market depth and be wary if it is low.

We potentially have a range here from 2333.50 to 2400. So eyes on any move back to 33.50



Last week saw a large distribution from around 2345 to 2361. So any moves to those extremes are could provide us with an opportunity to fade the market.



We are in the middle of last weeks chop, so not really excited to play off Fridays range.

Plan
- no bias
- looking for a trade off the open, then not interested unless we get to 45 or 61, at which point looking to see if the range holds or breaks.
- will trade a range hold by default (with low interest)
- will play a continuation of a break only if we have good volume
- also an eye on 2333.50 if we break down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2336.75 -> 2375
Value 2345.50 -> 2359
S1 - 2336.50, R1 - 2371.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2336.75/2347 -> 2260.75
Value - 2351.50 -> 2358
Globex 2349.75 -> 2359

Settlement 2352.25

Today Only - 2333.50, 2345, 2361

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #994 (permalink)
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11th April



Volume getting lower by the day - still neutral and still in the middle of a range.



Trading within the main distribution from last week - so again, very neutral.



Yesterday we were looking to fade 45 and 61. Actual low and high were 47.50 and 63.25.

Plan
- Same as yesterday - no bias
- looking for a trade off the open, then not interested unless we get to 45 or 61 , at which point looking to see if the range holds or breaks.
- will trade a range hold by default (with low interest)
- will play a continuation of a break only if we have good volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2336.75 -> 2375
Value 2345.50 -> 2359
S1 - 2336.50, R1 - 2371.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2347.50 -> 2263.25
Value - 2353.50 -> 2360
Globex 2347.50 -> 2355.75

Settlement 2352.50

Today Only - 2345, 2361

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #995 (permalink)
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12th April



Yesterday felt like a big day but in the end range was less than 20 points for the day session. We are still in the medium term range (white box) and we ended up where we started.



We are now back in the main distribution from last week and this week.



We settled at 2351, 1.5 points below prior settlement. So while I think it's good to be on the lookout for another break to the downside. We basically had a day yesterday where nothing much happened. We went down and then back up. It's possible this is a sign of overall weakness and it's also possible that people jumped on because it's been so dull of late.

Plan
- On the lookout for a break down again but really - we are back in the overall range, so need to be careful and not jump in too soon or on too little volume
- looking for a trade off the open, then playing it by ear based on the amount of excitement generated
- Still watching 61 above but the bottom of the range I'm not looking at 2333

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2333.25 -> 2363.25
Value 2346.75 -> 2356.75
S1 - 2336.50, R1 - 2371.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2333.25 -> 2251.75 / 2355.75
Value - 2340 -> 2349.50
Globex 2345 -> 2356.50

Settlement 2351

Today Only - 2333, 2361

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #996 (permalink)
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Sawasdee Pee Mai all or Happy Thai New Year...

Yes - we get to celebrate calendar New Year, Chinese New year and Thai New Year....

To be honest - 3 is definitely enough!

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  #997 (permalink)
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Well - hopefully that's the last of the New Years celebrations for this year...

18th April



Market has hit the low of our range a few times and not managed to make it to the other side. It's still rangebound but I think a lot of people will see this as bearish, so I'm thinking it won't take much to bring in downside participation.

It's earnings season - so an eye on the pre-market releases as anything major could change the mood of the market. This is worth a look: https://www.benzinga.com/calendar/earnings




Not much to get from the weekly profile - last week was a 4 day week and yesterday was a holiday in much of Europe. It was a fairly evenly distributed week.



Yesterday looks like a bounce up, but volume was less than 1 million - because of the holidays I presume.

Plan
- Volume needs to come back before we make any decisions - especially any presumptions because of yesterdays low participation move up.
- No trade for the first 15 mins because we are starting without much information
- Will look for longs above yesterdays range with a long term goal of 2400
- Will look to go short on high volume down moves pretty much anywhere
- an eye on the earnings for anything that could throw is for a loop!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2324 -> 2363.25
Value 2339.75 -> 2356.75
S1 - 2313.25, R1 - 2352.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2322.75 / 2328.75-> 2345.50
Value - 2333.75 -> 2340.75
Globex 2334.50 -> 2347

Settlement 2345

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #998 (permalink)
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19th April



Plenty of volume but not much direction yesterday. Still at the bottom of the range and still thinking it's more likely we'll have a good move on a break to the downside. A few big companies announcing earnings before the open - Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, TD Ameritrade, US Bancorp... Surprises in the financials could help us move...



We can see an upper distribution that has a low around 36.25, so watching that on any move down. It's a bit vague at the top, so not looking at anything specific there.



Yesterday played out like most - we wend up, down, up again. We ended up a few points higher. As that was a higher volume day, we'll pay more attention to yesterdays range that we did yesterday when the prior day was a vacation.

Yesterday we also traded around Mondays range, which is typical of how a range week starts up. One look at the last 2 days and you have to think that the middle isn't the best place to engage - unless it's off the open

Plan
- no bias
- looking to exploit the first moves off the open as we may
- other than that, looking at this weeks extremes for a reaction - not interested in the middle
- will play continuations away from the weeks range only on high volume (not wanting to be headfaked)
- once we are out of the market
- also watching 36.25


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2322.75 -> 2347
Value 2335.25 -> 2345.25
S1 - 2313.25, R1 - 2352.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2330.25-> 2344.50 / 2357
Value - 2334.75 -> 2341.25
Globex 2336.25 -> 2345

Settlement 2337.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #999 (permalink)
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20th April



Ugly



The weekly profile provides a better perspective most trading has been between 34.50 and 45 and a gap in the middle. So anything outside of that range is a place to look for a fade.



We can see here, what we had yesterday wasn't more than a probe outside the range.

Of course, the range will break. So outside the range, look for headfakes. If none, go with continuation otherwise trade back in.

Plan
- Presume range will hold and trade back to the middle once it's clear a test has been made
- Play a break after we are past the headfake zone & have decent volume
- Try to take an early trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2322.75 -> 2349.25
Value 2333.25 -> 2344.25
S1 - 2313.25, R1 - 2352.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2331 -> 2349.25
Value - 2338.25 -> 2348.75
Globex 2332.25 -> 2341.50

Settlement 2333.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #1000 (permalink)
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21st April



We popped up out of this weeks range but we are still in the greater range, so today we look for signs that we can carry on up to the top of the range 2400 or fail and roll over downside.



We have an upper distribution we are building right now. Below us I'll be watching 2345 as a line in the sand and expecting good participation upside if we test and it holds.



In this image, we can expand that 2345 up a bit and look at 2345-2347 as a line in the sand. It's also worth having an eye on 2352.25 into the open as that was where we pulled back to towards the end of the day

Plan
- Look for signs that we can carry on with yesterdays move and complete the larger range upside
- Watch 2345-2347 for a hold if we do move down
- Pretty much following the volume today

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2322.75 -> 2358.50
Value 2332.75 -> 2345.75
S1 - 2313.25, R1 - 2352.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2332.25 / 2337.25 -> 2358.25
Value - 2343.50 -> 2358.25
Globex 2351.25 -> 2356

Settlement 2352

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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