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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,320 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old August 29th, 2013, 06:06 AM   #91 (permalink)
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29th August

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2 days to go till the end of the month. We opened this month at 1685. The low was 1624.75 and the high 1705. There is therefore a chance that we get a "window dressing" push up in the next day or two. Obviously,there's still the risk of Syria news throwing a spanner in the works too.

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There's not much move since yesterday and at that point I was thinking the likely scenarios were:

- move back up to and head towards 1670
- fake back up to 1641 and then roll down
- move down to 1617.50, bounce off it as support, move thru, then bounce off it as resistance

We got to 1639.25, so not quite to 1641 and if we do get to 1641, I'd expect it to push through slightly before rolling down because we got so close yesterday.

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The weekly profile also supports the 1641 area as being potential resistance. As we can see it's the first lower volume area above the lower distribution on this weeks profile.

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The daily profile shows we stayed below Tuesdays pit session value in subsequent trading, so whilst it might appear to be bottoming out here, we are accepting value at lower prices right now. The value area on the weekly profile dropped yesterday too.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1624.75 -> 1667.50
Value 1625.75-> 1651.75
S1 - 1644, R1 1670.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1624.75 -> 1639.25
Value 1632.75 -> 1639.25
Globex 1629.25 -> 1637.75 (as at 4am EST)
Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641, 1650, 1657-1658,

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Old August 29th, 2013, 12:00 PM   #92 (permalink)
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Old August 30th, 2013, 03:45 AM   #93 (permalink)
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30th August

Last trading day of the month - be wary of "window dressing"/a push to the upside.

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Yesterday, I thought we'd do the following "if we do get to 1641, I'd expect it to push through slightly before rolling down because we got so close yesterday. "

We got to 44.75 before rolling over but as of typing (2AM EST), we have had a 1 tick poke through that level. Early on I'll be using 1641 as a reference point. Long bias above and short bias below.

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Above us we have the 1657-1658 area to get through and then the 26th August high of 1667.50. We have been using 1666.25 as a reference point for a while. As we've also been discussing here, the market is in an expanding range. Last time we headed downside, we were looking at the possibility that it'll push through the prior low before turning back up to the top of the range. If we do go upside, the same thing could well happen again and both 1671.50 and 1675 are reasonable targets for the new "top of expanding range".

Of course, the downside of this play is that it is becoming quite obvious and that means it's a good place to trap lots of shorts. So I'll stand by if it does happen and jump on once the reversal is confirmed.

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To the downside, we have this weeks lows and then nothing for me till 1617.50.

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We can see value high for the week is 1646.75, which is down from yesterday and an upside hurdle.

So, first order of the day is whether we hold above 41 and an eye out for window dressers - especially a push up later in the day!

Weekly Numbers
Range 1624.75 -> 1667.50
Value 1627.25 -> 1646.75
S1 - 1644, R1 1670.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1627.75/1628.25 -> 1644.75
Value 1636.25 -> 1643.25
Globex 1636.25-> 1642 (as at 2:30 am EST)
Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1675

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Old September 3rd, 2013, 09:16 AM   #94 (permalink)
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3rd September

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This afternoon we had quite a panic in the European markets. News came over the squawk that the Russians had spotted missiles flying over the Mediterranean. It turned out to be a "missile test" by the Israelis but the market had a sizable knee-jerk reaction which should be taken as a warning sign of the potential of the Syria situation to cause sudden market moves.

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On the 28th August, we had a set of scenarios and one of them was to turn back up to continue the theme of the "expanding range" we've been in since 18th August. We have had our move up and it remains to be seen if we will expand upside to 1671.50 area. We do seem to have taken pause at 1650 but once through that, my bias will be long. The 1641 area is a good area for us to test to the downside before moving up again/

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Last weeks profile shows clear upper and lower distributions and a fairly clear line in the sand at 1649.75 between the upper and lower distribution. Value for last week is below us and if we go too deep into that, we'll probably see the other side of it.

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Today, I'll be referencing Fridays day session and everything after that as one big Globex session. As such, we are effectively gapped up from Fridays pit session range.

Lots of news at 10am too.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1625.50 -> 1667.50
Value 1627.25 -> 1644.75
S1 1614.75, R1 1657.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1625.50 -> 1639.50 (pit)/1642.50 (globex)
Value 1629 -> 1633.50
Globex 1639 -> 1649
Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1675

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Last edited by DionysusToast; September 3rd, 2013 at 09:33 AM.
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Old September 4th, 2013, 09:18 AM   #95 (permalink)
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4th September

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We had decent volume yesterday with 2.3 million contracts traded and an almost 20 point range. We closed not that far from the middle of the range price-wise and delta down about 30k overall. So good participation but we still haven't resolved this expanding range yet. Note that last months low was 1624.75, so longer term, keep an eye out for that.

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I expect some traders will be marking a channel as per the lines above, which makes a break above 1650 a bit more significant in terms of a potential move up to 1560. The low from last week hasn't broken yet but if it does, then the next level below that is 1617.50. Unemployment claims are tomorrow and so we may just have a rotational day today in anticipation of that.

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Daily profiles show that we made a good run down with a "single print" at 1643.50, which becomes a line in the sand. The Globex range traded around yesterdays close and has so far stayed in yesterdays value area which adds fuel to the possibility of a rotational day. We did fail to hold above yesterdays Value High in todays Globex session, so that area is of quite interesting going into today.

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The weekly profile is quite 'ugly' and the top is flat and looks almost cut off towards 1650. There is a tendency to go back to areas that trade like this and 'fix' the profile but this might just be a result of the labour day and it's 2x Globex sessions. We are back within last weeks value too.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1625.50 -> 1667.50
Value 1627.25 -> 1644.75
S1 1614.75, R1 1657.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1630.75 -> 1650
Value 1631.25 -> 1641.25
Globex 1636 -> 1642.25
Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1643.50, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1675

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Old September 5th, 2013, 06:42 AM   #96 (permalink)
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5th September

Non Farm Employment @ 8:15am, then Unemployment Claims today @ 8:30am and then Non Manufacturing PMI at 10:00, so I'm doing the prep before that comes.

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Yesterday we saw a similar range to Tuesday but slightly less volume.

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We got through the 50 line so far to just shy of the 1657-1658 area we have been watching. Scenarios I'm considering today:

- Move back to 50 (or overnight low), find support and through 58. Next hurdle would be 1667.50 and our 'expanding range target' would be 71.50
- As above but with no move back to support, just straight up.
- Move down from this area with 1641 & 1630 as downside targets.

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The weekly profiule shows 3 distributions with an upper one at 1651-> 1655, soagain our 1650 are is going to be important in terms of a move up, if we go through there, we are back in developing value for the week and potentially looking at travelling down to this weeks value low.

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The Value low for yesterday is 1647 after we took a move up and then balanced in that area. If we do pop thru 1650 I'd be looking for this to break before getting bearish overall.

It'll be interesting to see how the news moves this. Volatility has come back quite quickly after Labor Day and we could quite easily see the upside target of 1671.50 off the news. Then I'd have to do my prep again!

Weekly Numbers
Range 1630.75 -> 1656.50
Value 1636.00 -> 1648.50
S1 1614.75, R1 1657.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1635.00/1635.25 -> 1654.75
Value 1647.00-> 1654.50
Globex 1650.75 -> 1565.50
Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641.00, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1675

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Last edited by DionysusToast; September 5th, 2013 at 08:13 AM.
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Old September 5th, 2013, 07:47 AM   #97 (permalink)
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trading

I listened to both of your webinars couple of days ago. Very informative and professional.

I think you mentioned in your webinar that you do not trade WTI crude. If you do, i would love to see your analysis on CL as i only trade CL at this time.

In the meantime enjoying your analysis on ES.

Thanks,

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Old September 6th, 2013, 06:47 AM   #98 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I listened to both of your webinars couple of days ago. Very informative and professional.

I think you mentioned in your webinar that you do not trade WTI crude. If you do, i would love to see your analysis on CL as i only trade CL at this time.

In the meantime enjoying your analysis on ES.

Thanks,

I don't trade crude at all right now, so any comments I make would more than likely be wrong.

Sorry about that!

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Old September 6th, 2013, 07:25 AM   #99 (permalink)
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6th September

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A very lackluster day after the promise of Tuesday & Wednesday. We couldn't maintain above the 57-58 level we have been watching and we've dipped back down to 50. Yesterday I was looking for a pullback to 50 before powering up but we got as low as 51.25 only and there certainly was no power up. I still like 1647 as a line in the sand - above that and I think we could head up to 1670 and below it 1630 and a potential break of last weeks low of 1624.75

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The profile shows we have been in a 10 point range since Thursday AMs Globex session. The 1647 is the value low from Wednesday. There's a single print at 48.25 which has held overnight.

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Weekly range has a value low of 41.75 and a high of 56 which is close to the 57-58 level we failed at yesterday.

So overall, I'm not expecting much. For longs, I'd like to see us stay above 47, and if we can't then a break to the downside could be on the cards. It is Friday though and the European Session was slow, the Euro hardly moved, so I'm not expecting too much.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1630.75 -> 165825
Value 1641.50 -> 1656
S1 1614.75, R1 1657.50

Daily Numbers
Range 16350.50/1651.25 -> 1658.25
Value 1653.25 -> 1656.25
Globex 1648.50 -> 1655.75
Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641.00, 1647.00, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1675

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Old September 9th, 2013, 07:21 AM   #100 (permalink)
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9th September

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The US Markets caught Syria-itis on Monday off the back of a comment by Putin which later on seemed to not actually matter that much at all and we ended up back where we started.
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So we are above the 1650 line and I'm still looking for range expansion to 1671.50 or above. The hurdles on the way are Fridays 1664 high and the old range high of 1667.50.

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Overnight action is above the settlement price of 1653.50 and so we could have an initial reaction down but right now the overnight action is sitting inside Fridays value area. If we do move down, look for support at the value low of 1651.50.

On a large range day like Fridays, the value areas are somewhat irrelevant because it's not really marking out an area where a lot of trading occurred. It's not a bell curve distribution on Friday, unlike what you can see in the current Globex session.

As per last week, I'm still looking for 1647-1650 to hold for more upside and for a break below to be bearish.

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The weekly profile shows that the globex session has been around the value high for the week - 1660.50, so look for that area as another potential hurdle.

Watch out for more Syria-itis.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1630.75 -> 1664
Value 1643 -> 1660.50
S1 - 1634.75, R1 - 1668

Daily Numbers
Range 1638.75 -> 1664
Value 1651.50 -> 1663.50
Globex 1652 -> 1659.75

Other : 1593.74, 1500, 1617.50,1624.75, 1631.25-.50, 1634.25, 1641.00, 1647.00, 1650, 1657-1658,1666.25-1667.50, 1671.50, 1675

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Last edited by DionysusToast; September 9th, 2013 at 07:31 AM.
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