Stephan's journal for accountability - futures io
futures io



Stephan's journal for accountability


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Stephan with 23 posts (11 thanks)
    2. looks_two COTtrader with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 1 posts (1 thanks)
    1. trending_up 2,976 views
    2. thumb_up 14 thanks given
    3. group 3 followers
    1. forum 26 posts
    2. attach_file 25 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Stephan's journal for accountability

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

I consider myself a beginner but I've been trading part time since 2009. I've kept a trading journal using Microsoft OneNote and I review it on a regular basis. However, I don't find it all that helpful and it didn't really improve my trading IMO. Recently I came across the idea of "accountability" and decided that I should put my trading journal on futures.io (formerly BMT). I am hoping that it will help me improve as a trader. Perhaps if I have to explain why I take a trade to someone, I will be more responsible and hold myself accountable for the results.

Method: I'm a student of FT71 so I am in the process of learning volume profile. I do my homework at night and draw my areas of interest on the chart. I don't have any special indicators but I do look at relative volume and the NYSE TICK. I fade the market on balance days and trade breakout on trend days.

Instrument: ES
Platform: Investor/RT
Data: DTN IQFeed

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Stephan for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Does the Rithmic bridge connect in plugin mode?
Sierra Chart
Is there a way to rename an existing trade?
MultiCharts
Thinkorswim MACD Thinkscript
ThinkOrSwim
Need help with strategy PriceActionSwingPro
NinjaTrader
Anybody uses Bookmap with Tradestation?
TradeStation
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
How much do you know about Bitcoin?
97 thanks
I finally blew up an account
38 thanks
FIO Journal Challenge - April 2021 w/Jigsaw Trading
38 thanks
EdgeProX from Edge Clear
22 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
21 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received


We broke out from 1632 area and ES moved 17.25 points on Tuesday and 15.50 today. Expecting the market to consolidate and move sideways tomorrow. Overall, if price is above 1632 area I'm bullish and slightly less bullish if we trade below 1626. Short term, I am watching 1645-1647 area to determine if I want to focus more on the long side or the short side.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Homework_for_05-16-13.png
Views:	79
Size:	60.3 KB
ID:	112638  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - Noticed the selling was pretty strong after econ news @ 9:00AM central. Waited for a pull back and took a short @ 1655. I use bracket orders so I was waiting for 1652.50 to hit to get my 1st scale but I couldn't pay close attention to the screen at the time. 52.50 is the open swing low and the ONVPOC. I should have taken 52.75 instead. Since we rotated 3 points back to OSL and couldn't break it, I moved my stop to breakeven.

Trade #2 - Waited several hours for YHI to hit to take a short but we never got there. @ 2:20pm central, we had a balanced profile so I was expecting buyers to step in near yesterday's LVN. My 1st scale target was 1525.25 but we couldn't get above IBL. Got stopped out.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Trade_Analyzer_05-16-13.png
Views:	63
Size:	20.2 KB
ID:	112749  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Stephan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Didn't update my homework because the picture is about the same.

Trade #1 - Long @ 1656. The open felt really strong, we opened above ONVPOC and pushed above yesterday's VPOC & ONHI. The idea is that we will test YHI. Got stopped out pretty quickly after and realized that I was being too aggressive.

Trade #2 - We tested yesterday's VAL, pushed back into the OS area and then hit YHI. I got long on a pull back to OSH. I couldn't get a scale when we hit 59 again because I needed price to trade 1 more tick above. I think I made the same mistake yesterday but since Wednesday's high was 59.75, I thought we may push just a couple more ticks higher. It didn't and I got stopped out again.

Normally i would give it 1 more shot but didn't see another setup and I try not to trade on Friday afternoon so that's it for today.

I've been on a losing streak for awhile so I'm running low on emotional capital. It seems like the harder I try the worse I get. Going to stop watching webinars for a while.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Stephan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,088 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,548 given, 98,574 received

After uploading your attachment, click the Embed link. This will embed the chart into your post. It is then easy to view, whereas as an attachment it is too small to view until you click it, which most people won't do.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

I believe buyers are still in control. Short term I'm watching 1656 CHVN area. Above 56, I will focus on the long side, if we break below1641, I'd expect us to test 1631 area. Bigger picture, I am watching 1625 CHVN and will remain bullish as long as we stay above that area.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - Wanted to get long when we got above yesterday's high and shoot for my area of interest @ 71.25 - 72.75. I waited because I didn't want to be too aggressive like last week. When we got a pull back and seeing how 64-66 acted as support earlier for an hour, I took the trade and went long. However, it just didn't "feel" right to me so I got out @ breakeven. Not sure if I am developing a bad habit here or if I did the right thing. On one hand, I saved myself some $ because I would have gotten stopped out. But on the other hand, I think for a beginner, it's better to just take the trade and let it play out.


I was hoping that we will get to my area of interest below 59-60.50 but we only made it to 61. I was also waiting for 59.75 because of the overnight low and the high on 5/15/13.



Homework for tomorrow


I changed the 59-60.50 area to 59-61 to cover the low of today. Perhaps I should have made that zone wider yesterday? Also moved 64-65 area up to include the VPOC from today and the LVN/VAH. I'm will focus on the long side if we stay above 54-56 area. Short term if we get above 66.75, I'd expect us to re-test 70.75. If we can't get above the CHVN area, then i'd expect us to retest the 56 area.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Missed opportunity - I didn't get long when we broke above the LVN from yesterday. One of my hypothesis from yesterday was that if we can get above the LVN, we might auction higher and re-test yesterday's high. I didn't really have a spot that I feel comfortable getting in.


Trade #1 - Thought about shorting when we were approaching yesterday's high but we've been so bullish on Tuesdays I hesitated. Then after we got a really decent push below yesterday's LVN, I took a short @ 63.75 when it couldn't get more than 1 tick above yesterday's close. I know I chased this move but did not realize that until after I took the trade. I saw that we broke into OS and it couldn't get above the LVN from yesterday but I should have taken the trade sooner perhaps near open swing high and put my stop somewhere above the LVN from yesterday. My target was ONLO and YLO because I got in late. We already got a 9 and a half point move from top to bottom at the time and we've been so bullish on Tuesdays. We also tested this area yesterday and got a decent bounce.



Homework for tomorrow

I'm watching the LVN from today's profile near 65 area. Depending on where we open, short term, I am still bullish if we stay about 65. Longer term, 56 area should still act as as decent support. Market is still in an uptrend as long as we stay above 26 area. Tomorrow we have FOMC minutes at 1:00pm central so expecting market to chop around before the news and then get a push one way or another.



Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received


I went short this morning near yesterday's VAH. I got stubborn and held it through existing home sales and got stopped out. Normally getting stopped out on a trade is not a big deal and I have it in my plan to take 3 losing trades before I stop trading for the day. However, I have written in my notes that I should get out of a position before economic news. I could have gotten out at breakeven but instead I held on knowing I wasn't following my plan. I was pretty mad at myself because of that. Not because I loss $ but because I didn't follow my plan. Based on past experience, after making a mistake like that, I tend to revenge trade and lose even more money. Because I recognized that, I decided to just turn off my computer and walk away. I didn't even bother to save my Trade Analyzer screen (I can't pull historical data so no Trade Analyzer screenshot today). I spent a lot of time today thinking what I could have done differently.

Homework for tomorrow



We broke the 56 support area but we're still above 25 area so the uptrend is still intact overall. Tomorrow one possibility is that we may get responsive buying at the open to re-test 64. If buyers don't step in then we may test 1625. Since we closed right @ a CHVN, we might get 2 sided trading and just chop around.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - Long 38 half. Saw responsive buyers as expected. Got on board when we pulled back to OSH. Decided to get out @ breakeven a minute later because NYSE tick couldn't get above zero at the time. It did go back up to 1641 but I wasn't enough for me to get a scale out. Also FT71 cautioned us being on the long side at the time. It was good because I would have gotten stopped out if I held on.

Trade #2 - Noticed we got to 1 tick below the previous swing high but couldn't push higher. Went ahead and took a short on a pullback @ 1638. NYSE tick couldn't stay above zero so I expected us to test below. New home sales # was coming out @ 9 central so I wasn't going to hold through that. Took my 1st scale and then got out completely a few minutes before 9.

Trade #3 - Buyers pushed ES all the way up to 45 half. Over 11 points to the upside, seems a bit bearish at the time that we couldn't get to yesterday's low but I took the long anyway when we came back to VPOC @ 39 half. I kept my stop pretty tight this time and I would have gotten out if we push back into the OS. Got my 1st scale and saw price rotated back down for -3 and a quarter to re-test the VPOC/ONVPOC. It was a little bit scary but since I already got my 1st scale, I held on. Got out completely before we re-test the IBH.

Missed opportunity - I waited for the rest of the day for the ES to close the gap @ 55.25. I was planning to short 1655. We got to 1 point away from my entry before heading back down. It would have been a good short targeting VPOC @ 48 half. Not sure what I need to do but I've been missing a lot of trades like that trying to be too exact with my entry. What could I have done differently to get me in the trade? I think part of my problem is that I try to be too precise.



Homework for tomorrow

Don't think I will be too active tomorrow. FT mentioned that the market will be dead by 10:30 central or something like that so I may not trade. Want to see buyers get the ES back above the CHVN near 55 area and then perhaps we will test 64 and eventually the NVPOC @ 77.25. Still think the uptrend is not over until we get a strong push below 25.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Stephan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - Shorted 1640. We opened below ONVPOC & NYSE TICK couldn't get above zero so I was thinking I should look for a short when we pushed back into the OS. What I should have done is to wait for a reaction instead of just jump right in (something FT71 mentioned in a client chat webinar i believe). I was using a wide stop so I did not get taken out when we bounced back up to re-test 42. After I took my 1st scale, I decided to be proactive and see where I want to go long. I was expected 2 way action today so yesterday's low all the way down to the gap close and NVPOC seems to be a good area to get long. I went ahead and got out on my 2nd contract early so I can mentally prepare myself to get long. I ended up missing the long setup because I was waiting for 34 quarter to hit. I was trying to be too precise again. I also missed the opportunity to go long near 36 half even though I literally had my mouse pointer sitting there but since I could have gotten a better price earlier, I couldn't pull the trigger to buy it @ a higher price. I need to work on that.

Trade #2 - I really wasn't planning to trade any more for the rest of the day but saw that we made it back 2 ticks below yesterday's VPOC. Instead of waiting for 48 half to hit, I decided to just pull the trigger when we poked below 46.75. However, I was in a meeting so couldn't really focus on the trade so when we didn't slice right through 45 quarter, I got out and just made it a scalp trade. I got out before 2:00PM central so maybe we will get down to my target (IBH) or maybe not.. I guess we'll see.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 05/28/13

Hypothesis #1 - Overnight we got above 54 and the high looks weaker than the low so if we can get above 64 today, I'd expect to see us test 73 and maybe test 77.25 NVPOC.

Hypothesis #2 - We retest 55 during RTH session, expecting 37 to hold. I'm thinking we are less likely to get a 20+ point move today. If we do go lower, 34 most likely will hold.

Hypothesis #3 - ES may chop around between 47 and 65.

After watching a recent S5 client chat webinar, I realized I've been using the fib tool incorrectly in IRT. I need to read up more on measured move.

Also FT just reminded us in the chat room to scrub the holiday data in IRT. I forgot about that before taking the screenshot but it's about the same. I need to remember to put something on my calendar to remind me to do that in the future.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - I expected responsive sellers at the open but when we tested 64.25 and pushed back into the OS, I wanted to get long. However, I couldn't find a spot to jump on board so I missed that up move to 72.75. When we came back to the midpoint, I took a long but got stopped out a few minutes after. I didn't check my S5 trader settings when I launched it this morning and didn't realize it reverted me back to 1 contract so I only got 1 contract on this trade. I have to go back and look at my notes or start tracking this but it seems like I am wrong 8 out of 10 times when I take a mid trade. May need to take that out of my plan.

Trade #2 - Took a long near 65 because that's my homework level. I was still bullish so I wanted to stay on the long side. We did get a new tick low so I wasn't too optimistic but decided that I need to hold on to the trade. I also thought about getting out @ 67.75 but I was hoping to get more so I can make up for the last losing trade. I even had a chance to get out at break even but I didn't take it. Got stopped out.

Trade #3 - I knew I made a mistake the moment I took the trade. It wasn't my homework level. I actually thought about taking a short and lean on OSL but didn't. When we made it to 1.5x IBL, I thought we already have a decent range so thinking we will bounce from here. I should not have taken the trade.

Trade #4 - Took a long @ 55.75 when I saw that we hit 55.25 and got a reaction. 55 is a CHVN and I thought we will hold this area and rotate back up. I told myself that I wasn't expecting a 20 pt day today so this is a good place to get long. Turns out it was a good spot but I needed a wider stop. I got stopped out just to watch it go all the way back up to 60.

I hit my daily loss limit today. I think my emotional capital is not just low.. it's almost @ zero. I know I've only been studying volume profile for about 6 months or so but I've been trading the ES since 2009. I just haven't been able to any progress. I have some stuff going on in my life that may prevent me from trading so I might take some time off. It will give me a chance to review my mistakes and learn from it.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Stephan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 05/29/13

We will most likely open with a gap lower. Overnight volume is 40+% higher. No econ news today but I'm still expecting to see larger trading range than normal.

Hypothesis #1 - Expecting responsive buying. Perhaps test 50.75, 55 and may eventually test 57 NVPOC.

Hypothesis #2 - No economic news scheduled today. We may just chop between 42 to 57.

Hypothesis #3 - We continue to head lower, test 39 NVPOC and I'd expect 33 area to get a decent rotation. If we push even lower, 25 most likely will shut off selling.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

I find it a little bit difficult to post this on a public forum because it is very personal but I guess that's the whole point of having this journal. I don't think it will be helpful to go through my trades today because I really shouldn't have traded in the first place. I read the "Time to Give Up" thread under psychology and money management section and thought about my own trading for a while. I realized that there is a pattern to most of the days where I make stupid mistakes and practically just give money away.

Big Mike mentioned some of the characteristics of people who lose money trading. For the most part, I don't think I have those issues that he mentioned. But one thing stood out for me is not being in a situation where I can focus on trading. I do have a plan (although I may need to update and firm up some of the details). I do my best to measure my results not based on my P&L but with the S5 Trade Analyzer and I also keep a spreadsheet on the errors I make on a regular basis. I do stick to a consistent method for the most part. I don't have unrealistic expectations. I am not undercapitalized and I am definitely willing to do the work. My problem is that I am not in a position in my life right now to make trading a priority. My wife and I had a baby about 6 months ago and I've been trying to trade all this time on and off. Also, even though my wife is supportive on the surface, without getting into the details, I know deep down that she thinks taking care of our son is more important than trading.

What I realized is that whenever my wife and I argue about something, the next day I will unintentionally (or perhaps I'm doing it intentionally?) try to "take it out on the market" and just make stupid mistakes left and right. A bad trading day will also result in more fighting. I know I have other issues I need to work on but this one seems to be the biggest. Understanding the problem is one thing but finding a solution to me is much more difficult. I'm definitely not ready to give up just because of this one problem. However, to preserve my capital, for now I think I need to just go back to paper trading and try to achieve some level of consistency before trading live again. Also I am going to have to discuss this with my wife and try to work out a solution.



Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Stephan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 05/30/13

I think I should do my homework in the morning instead so I can put the overnight session into perspective. However, I usually don't wake up early enough to do homework so I'll just keep doing it at night for now and try to adjust my schedule better. It's hard to go to bed early for me because I have other responsibilities.

We couldn't get to 56 so I am thinking short term we are still a bit bearish. However, we still have an overall uptrend.

Hypothesis #1 - Depending on where we open, since we've been having larger range we may go up, test 56, 60 and eventually hit 64 area.

Hypothesis #2 - We closed right at a CHVN area. Perhaps we will chop around 47 half area. That's probably less likely because we have important economic #s out tomorrow @ 7am central.

Hypothesis #3 - ES continue the down swing, test the 38 swing low and continue down to test the balance area low @ 34. Breaking below 34 may test 29 and 25.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 06/05/13

We gapped down overnight. Market is building balance between 20 to 46. The pre-market econ news are done. We have more econ news coming out @ 9:00AM today and then Fed's beige book @ 1:00PM. Overnight volume is quite high. 30% higher than 50d avg.

Hypothesis #1 - After 9:00AM, responsive buyers may push to test YCL and ONHI. If we expect a 20+ point move again because we have Fed's beige book @ 1:00PM, then YHI @ 45.75 will likely to be tested.

Hypothesis #2 - ES may stay within a range. Perhaps between 20 to 35 and just chop around the CHVN area on the composite. Seems less likely with the econ news on the calendar but ES did make a directional push to the down side yesterday with a decent amount of range and we have NFP on Friday so ES may rest. Still thinking that's less likely.

Hypothesis #3 - Initiative sellers may push ES down from the open near 25 and test YLO, break below this mini balance, and continue down to 12 half and then 05 half which is where this entire up move started at the beginning of May 2013.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 6/6/13

Overnight volume is slightly above avg. With NFP tomorrow, I'm expecting 2 way auction today. Will pay attention to the Open Type to help determine which hypothesis is more likely to play out.

Hypothesis #1 - 2 way auction. ES will trade between 05 half to 21. I think this is the most likely scenario.

Hypothesis #2 - Initiative buyers push ES above ONHI @ 16.75, test 26 and then 31 & 34 quarter.

Hypothesis #3 - Since we are opening in range, 1612 will most likely be tested. If we continue to go lower, then 1608 YCL, 1606.75 ONLO and re-test 1605 half. In the event that we break 05 half, then we will likely to test 92 quarter.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

ES will most likely gap higher at the open. Overnight volume is now 90+% higher than 50d avg. We got a directional push to the upside after NFP.

Hypothesis #1 - Expecting responsive sellers to push ES back down and test YHI, ONLO. My plan is to get long if we test 24.25. If we continue down, then we should get a bounce @ 1613 and yesterday's VPOC @ 1608.
Hypothesis #2 - ES will continue higher, retest ONHI, push through the CLVN, tag the NVPOC @ 42.25 and test 47 CHVN. Will not hesitate to short 45-47 area. I'm thinking this is more likely to happen. Seems like buyers are back in control for the time being.
Hypothesis #3 - We may chop between ONHI to 1612 CHVN. I think this is less likely to happen but we have no more econ news on the calendar today.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
 COTtrader 
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 552 received

@Stephan
Your marriage is your life capital. Spend it well by investing in its future.
Thank you for the honest sharing. I understand and support your decision for family.

Ken


Stephan View Post
I find it a little bit difficult to post this on a public forum because it is very personal but I guess that's the whole point of having this journal. I don't think it will be helpful to go through my trades today because I really shouldn't have traded in the first place. I read the "Time to Give Up" thread under psychology and money management section and thought about my own trading for a while. I realized that there is a pattern to most of the days where I make stupid mistakes and practically just give money away.

Big Mike mentioned some of the characteristics of people who lose money trading. For the most part, I don't think I have those issues that he mentioned. But one thing stood out for me is not being in a situation where I can focus on trading. I do have a plan (although I may need to update and firm up some of the details). I do my best to measure my results not based on my P&L but with the S5 Trade Analyzer and I also keep a spreadsheet on the errors I make on a regular basis. I do stick to a consistent method for the most part. I don't have unrealistic expectations. I am not undercapitalized and I am definitely willing to do the work. My problem is that I am not in a position in my life right now to make trading a priority. My wife and I had a baby about 6 months ago and I've been trying to trade all this time on and off. Also, even though my wife is supportive on the surface, without getting into the details, I know deep down that she thinks taking care of our son is more important than trading.

What I realized is that whenever my wife and I argue about something, the next day I will unintentionally (or perhaps I'm doing it intentionally?) try to "take it out on the market" and just make stupid mistakes left and right. A bad trading day will also result in more fighting. I know I have other issues I need to work on but this one seems to be the biggest. Understanding the problem is one thing but finding a solution to me is much more difficult. I'm definitely not ready to give up just because of this one problem. However, to preserve my capital, for now I think I need to just go back to paper trading and try to achieve some level of consistency before trading live again. Also I am going to have to discuss this with my wife and try to work out a solution.




Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received


COTtrader View Post
@Stephan
Your marriage is your life capital. Spend it well by investing in its future.
Thank you for the honest sharing. I understand and support your decision for family.

Ken

Ken,

Thank you for the comment. I totally agree. That's why I haven't been trading. I'm still doing my homework each day but I want to focus more on family first. I need to spend more time with my wife and kid. Also, I'd be lying to myself to think that spousal support is my only issue. I have many other things I need to work on before I'm ready to trade again. Thanks.

Stephan

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Stephan for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 6/10/13

Overnight volume so far is about 5-10% below 50d avg. We are most likely opening out of range. Expecting 37 half to be tested. No econ news on the calendar. Expecting 2 way auction. Buyers might still be in control if we can get above 47.75.

Hypothesis #1 - Responsive sellers push ES down to test 39 half gap, 37 half VPOC, 34 half ONLO and then 25.75 YLO.

Hypothesis #2 - With no econ news today, ES may trade in a range between 32 to 47.

Hypothesis #3 - Initiative buyers push ES above ONHI, test 51, & 55 half.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 06/11/13

Value shifted higher yesterday even though we closed within Monday's range. Interesting action overnight. FT mentioned that the key driver overnight was market disappointment with BoJ decision. We will most likely open with a gap down this morning within Friday's range. Holding 26 is key for buyers. No econ news on the calendar today. Relative volume is over 30% higher than 50d avg. With yesterday's range being so narrow, perhaps we will get a decent amount of volatility either to the upside or continue to the downside.

Hypothesis #1 - Expecting responsive buyers come in and push ES back above the thin profile to 37 half, 38 quarter and 42.

Hypothesis #2 - No econ news today ES may auction between 23 to 37 half. Seems less likely with this kind of directional push to the downside overnight.

Hypothesis #3 - Initiative sellers continue to push ES down, break ONLO @ 25, tag 23 gap, 12 half CHVN and shut off selling @ 08 NVPOC.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 06/13/13

It's Contract Rollover today so relative volume is not correct. Not sure what's an easy way to determine the correct relative volume. Need to make a note to look into that.

Overnight ES gapped down to 1591.75 and currently trading near 1600 which is near prior balance low. 96 half is where the up move started and we got a re-test on 06/06/13. We are more than 100 points off the high so it's a very big bracket. ES is most likely going to open out of range. It's not usual to get 2 trend days in a row so expecting market to rest. Will need to watch the opening type to determine direction and velocity.

Hypothesis #1 - Responsive buyers step in and hold the balance area low, push ESH back above 1600 ONVPOC, then 1608, 09 half, 11.75 and perhaps 26 again depending on where we open.

Hypothesis #2 - Initiative sellers continue to push lower, retest 96 half, 91.75 ONLO, then 87 CHVN and 82 CHVN.

Hypothesis #3 - We are not likely to have another trend day so ES may trade between 96 half to 1612.; just because I'm not expecting a trend day, it doesn't mean it won't happen. Also, we will probably get a strong push in either direction. I stopped watching the VIX because I want to reduce the amount of information I have to process on my screen but most likely we will get a decent amount of volatility.

I think this is going to be my last homework post for a while. Don't want to clutter the futures.io (formerly BMT) forum without adding any value since there are many other active traders posting their homework already. I will resume updating my journal when I'm ready to trade again.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
bwasi
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
 
 
Posts: 31 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 16 given, 34 received


Stephan View Post
I went short this morning near yesterday's VAH. I got stubborn and held it through existing home sales and got stopped out. Normally getting stopped out on a trade is not a big deal and I have it in my plan to take 3 losing trades before I stop trading for the day. However, I have written in my notes that I should get out of a position before economic news. I could have gotten out at breakeven but instead I held on knowing I wasn't following my plan. I was pretty mad at myself because of that. Not because I loss $ but because I didn't follow my plan. Based on past experience, after making a mistake like that, I tend to revenge trade and lose even more money. Because I recognized that, I decided to just turn off my computer and walk away. I didn't even bother to save my Trade Analyzer screen (I can't pull historical data so no Trade Analyzer screenshot today). I spent a lot of time today thinking what I could have done differently.

Homework for tomorrow



We broke the 56 support area but we're still above 25 area so the uptrend is still intact overall. Tomorrow one possibility is that we may get responsive buying at the open to re-test 64. If buyers don't step in then we may test 1625. Since we closed right @ a CHVN, we might get 2 sided trading and just chop around.

I suggest that BEFORE each session, make sure you READ ALOUD your trading plan. Then observe your behaviour.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to bwasi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
 Stephan 
Austin, Texas
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

It's been almost 9 months since my last futures.io (formerly BMT) journal entry. My son is 17 months old now and I finally have some free time to focus on trading. Since I started trading live again in late Jan 2014, I've been thinking about how I should use my online journal. I don't really have enough time to update it in the morning each day and I already have a routine to do my homework using Microsoft OneNote. I decided that I should update it on a monthly basis to show my results, lessons learned and work on my goals online for accountability. Accountability is the reason I started this journal in the first place.

I went back to trading 1 lot. I figured I should start small and slowly increase size. I took a total of 72 trades. I captured my S5 Trade Analyzer results and put the data in a spreadsheet that I got from our chat room. I think one of the traders with Stage 5 created this spreadsheet. We're still waiting for the online version of S5 Trade Analyzer with historical information but until then, I don't think I can live without this spreadsheet. It is a really awesome tool.



According to the spreadsheet, my expectacy for Feb 2014 is 1.86. The highest was 4.41 after 17 trades and it quickly dropped down to 1.86 @ trade #72. My win % is 53 and Loss % is 47.


I think I did ok but I made so many mistakes I'm surprised I have a positive expectancy so far. I need to stop micromanaging my trades. Most of the time when I scratch a trade, more than likely it will hit my target. Another problem is that after a losing trade, sometimes I will exit too early. I think the last 2 trades I took I got 3 or 4 ticks and immediately got out because I couldn't hold on. I am still trying to avoid losses. I don't think I have accepted the fact that the outcome of my next trade is 50/50. Those are the things I need to work on in March.

At the beginning of 2014, FT71 told us we need to set our goals. One of my goals is to make 4 ticks per trade on avg within 3 months. I'm not 100% sure I can make that happen but the only thing I can do is to keep trying. Another goal is to stick to my setups and not invent trades in the middle of the day. I haven't been doing a good job with that so far. I also told myself to remember to save my trade analyzer results each day. It's more like a habit but so many times in the past, I would forget to save my results and after RTH session is over, I can't log back in and grab the result for that day. It happened a few times before and it can get pretty frustrating for me so I told myself I need to make sure I save my stats.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Stephan for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Stephan's journal for accountability


Last Updated on March 2, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
 

Our 12-year anniversary w/ $$,$$$ prizes (check soon)

June
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts