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Stephan's journal for accountability
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Stephan's journal for accountability

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - Long 38 half. Saw responsive buyers as expected. Got on board when we pulled back to OSH. Decided to get out @ breakeven a minute later because NYSE tick couldn't get above zero at the time. It did go back up to 1641 but I wasn't enough for me to get a scale out. Also FT71 cautioned us being on the long side at the time. It was good because I would have gotten stopped out if I held on.

Trade #2 - Noticed we got to 1 tick below the previous swing high but couldn't push higher. Went ahead and took a short on a pullback @ 1638. NYSE tick couldn't stay above zero so I expected us to test below. New home sales # was coming out @ 9 central so I wasn't going to hold through that. Took my 1st scale and then got out completely a few minutes before 9.

Trade #3 - Buyers pushed ES all the way up to 45 half. Over 11 points to the upside, seems a bit bearish at the time that we couldn't get to yesterday's low but I took the long anyway when we came back to VPOC @ 39 half. I kept my stop pretty tight this time and I would have gotten out if we push back into the OS. Got my 1st scale and saw price rotated back down for -3 and a quarter to re-test the VPOC/ONVPOC. It was a little bit scary but since I already got my 1st scale, I held on. Got out completely before we re-test the IBH.

Missed opportunity - I waited for the rest of the day for the ES to close the gap @ 55.25. I was planning to short 1655. We got to 1 point away from my entry before heading back down. It would have been a good short targeting VPOC @ 48 half. Not sure what I need to do but I've been missing a lot of trades like that trying to be too exact with my entry. What could I have done differently to get me in the trade? I think part of my problem is that I try to be too precise.

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Homework for tomorrow

Don't think I will be too active tomorrow. FT mentioned that the market will be dead by 10:30 central or something like that so I may not trade. Want to see buyers get the ES back above the CHVN near 55 area and then perhaps we will test 64 and eventually the NVPOC @ 77.25. Still think the uptrend is not over until we get a strong push below 25.

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Last edited by Stephan; May 23rd, 2013 at 09:31 PM.
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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - Shorted 1640. We opened below ONVPOC & NYSE TICK couldn't get above zero so I was thinking I should look for a short when we pushed back into the OS. What I should have done is to wait for a reaction instead of just jump right in (something FT71 mentioned in a client chat webinar i believe). I was using a wide stop so I did not get taken out when we bounced back up to re-test 42. After I took my 1st scale, I decided to be proactive and see where I want to go long. I was expected 2 way action today so yesterday's low all the way down to the gap close and NVPOC seems to be a good area to get long. I went ahead and got out on my 2nd contract early so I can mentally prepare myself to get long. I ended up missing the long setup because I was waiting for 34 quarter to hit. I was trying to be too precise again. I also missed the opportunity to go long near 36 half even though I literally had my mouse pointer sitting there but since I could have gotten a better price earlier, I couldn't pull the trigger to buy it @ a higher price. I need to work on that.

Trade #2 - I really wasn't planning to trade any more for the rest of the day but saw that we made it back 2 ticks below yesterday's VPOC. Instead of waiting for 48 half to hit, I decided to just pull the trigger when we poked below 46.75. However, I was in a meeting so couldn't really focus on the trade so when we didn't slice right through 45 quarter, I got out and just made it a scalp trade. I got out before 2:00PM central so maybe we will get down to my target (IBH) or maybe not.. I guess we'll see.

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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, Texas
 
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received


Homework for 05/28/13

Hypothesis #1 - Overnight we got above 54 and the high looks weaker than the low so if we can get above 64 today, I'd expect to see us test 73 and maybe test 77.25 NVPOC.

Hypothesis #2 - We retest 55 during RTH session, expecting 37 to hold. I'm thinking we are less likely to get a 20+ point move today. If we do go lower, 34 most likely will hold.

Hypothesis #3 - ES may chop around between 47 and 65.

After watching a recent S5 client chat webinar, I realized I've been using the fib tool incorrectly in IRT. I need to read up more on measured move.

Also FT just reminded us in the chat room to scrub the holiday data in IRT. I forgot about that before taking the screenshot but it's about the same. I need to remember to put something on my calendar to remind me to do that in the future.

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Last edited by Stephan; May 28th, 2013 at 09:34 AM.
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  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Beginner
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Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
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Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Trade #1 - I expected responsive sellers at the open but when we tested 64.25 and pushed back into the OS, I wanted to get long. However, I couldn't find a spot to jump on board so I missed that up move to 72.75. When we came back to the midpoint, I took a long but got stopped out a few minutes after. I didn't check my S5 trader settings when I launched it this morning and didn't realize it reverted me back to 1 contract so I only got 1 contract on this trade. I have to go back and look at my notes or start tracking this but it seems like I am wrong 8 out of 10 times when I take a mid trade. May need to take that out of my plan.

Trade #2 - Took a long near 65 because that's my homework level. I was still bullish so I wanted to stay on the long side. We did get a new tick low so I wasn't too optimistic but decided that I need to hold on to the trade. I also thought about getting out @ 67.75 but I was hoping to get more so I can make up for the last losing trade. I even had a chance to get out at break even but I didn't take it. Got stopped out.

Trade #3 - I knew I made a mistake the moment I took the trade. It wasn't my homework level. I actually thought about taking a short and lean on OSL but didn't. When we made it to 1.5x IBL, I thought we already have a decent range so thinking we will bounce from here. I should not have taken the trade.

Trade #4 - Took a long @ 55.75 when I saw that we hit 55.25 and got a reaction. 55 is a CHVN and I thought we will hold this area and rotate back up. I told myself that I wasn't expecting a 20 pt day today so this is a good place to get long. Turns out it was a good spot but I needed a wider stop. I got stopped out just to watch it go all the way back up to 60.

I hit my daily loss limit today. I think my emotional capital is not just low.. it's almost @ zero. I know I've only been studying volume profile for about 6 months or so but I've been trading the ES since 2009. I just haven't been able to any progress. I have some stuff going on in my life that may prevent me from trading so I might take some time off. It will give me a chance to review my mistakes and learn from it.

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  #15 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 05/29/13

We will most likely open with a gap lower. Overnight volume is 40+% higher. No econ news today but I'm still expecting to see larger trading range than normal.

Hypothesis #1 - Expecting responsive buying. Perhaps test 50.75, 55 and may eventually test 57 NVPOC.

Hypothesis #2 - No economic news scheduled today. We may just chop between 42 to 57.

Hypothesis #3 - We continue to head lower, test 39 NVPOC and I'd expect 33 area to get a decent rotation. If we push even lower, 25 most likely will shut off selling.

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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
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Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

I find it a little bit difficult to post this on a public forum because it is very personal but I guess that's the whole point of having this journal. I don't think it will be helpful to go through my trades today because I really shouldn't have traded in the first place. I read the "Time to Give Up" thread under psychology and money management section and thought about my own trading for a while. I realized that there is a pattern to most of the days where I make stupid mistakes and practically just give money away.

Big Mike mentioned some of the characteristics of people who lose money trading. For the most part, I don't think I have those issues that he mentioned. But one thing stood out for me is not being in a situation where I can focus on trading. I do have a plan (although I may need to update and firm up some of the details). I do my best to measure my results not based on my P&L but with the S5 Trade Analyzer and I also keep a spreadsheet on the errors I make on a regular basis. I do stick to a consistent method for the most part. I don't have unrealistic expectations. I am not undercapitalized and I am definitely willing to do the work. My problem is that I am not in a position in my life right now to make trading a priority. My wife and I had a baby about 6 months ago and I've been trying to trade all this time on and off. Also, even though my wife is supportive on the surface, without getting into the details, I know deep down that she thinks taking care of our son is more important than trading.

What I realized is that whenever my wife and I argue about something, the next day I will unintentionally (or perhaps I'm doing it intentionally?) try to "take it out on the market" and just make stupid mistakes left and right. A bad trading day will also result in more fighting. I know I have other issues I need to work on but this one seems to be the biggest. Understanding the problem is one thing but finding a solution to me is much more difficult. I'm definitely not ready to give up just because of this one problem. However, to preserve my capital, for now I think I need to just go back to paper trading and try to achieve some level of consistency before trading live again. Also I am going to have to discuss this with my wife and try to work out a solution.


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  #17 (permalink)
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Austin, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 05/30/13

I think I should do my homework in the morning instead so I can put the overnight session into perspective. However, I usually don't wake up early enough to do homework so I'll just keep doing it at night for now and try to adjust my schedule better. It's hard to go to bed early for me because I have other responsibilities.

We couldn't get to 56 so I am thinking short term we are still a bit bearish. However, we still have an overall uptrend.

Hypothesis #1 - Depending on where we open, since we've been having larger range we may go up, test 56, 60 and eventually hit 64 area.

Hypothesis #2 - We closed right at a CHVN area. Perhaps we will chop around 47 half area. That's probably less likely because we have important economic #s out tomorrow @ 7am central.

Hypothesis #3 - ES continue the down swing, test the 38 swing low and continue down to test the balance area low @ 34. Breaking below 34 may test 29 and 25.

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  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 06/05/13

We gapped down overnight. Market is building balance between 20 to 46. The pre-market econ news are done. We have more econ news coming out @ 9:00AM today and then Fed's beige book @ 1:00PM. Overnight volume is quite high. 30% higher than 50d avg.

Hypothesis #1 - After 9:00AM, responsive buyers may push to test YCL and ONHI. If we expect a 20+ point move again because we have Fed's beige book @ 1:00PM, then YHI @ 45.75 will likely to be tested.

Hypothesis #2 - ES may stay within a range. Perhaps between 20 to 35 and just chop around the CHVN area on the composite. Seems less likely with the econ news on the calendar but ES did make a directional push to the down side yesterday with a decent amount of range and we have NFP on Friday so ES may rest. Still thinking that's less likely.

Hypothesis #3 - Initiative sellers may push ES down from the open near 25 and test YLO, break below this mini balance, and continue down to 12 half and then 05 half which is where this entire up move started at the beginning of May 2013.

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  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received

Homework for 6/6/13

Overnight volume is slightly above avg. With NFP tomorrow, I'm expecting 2 way auction today. Will pay attention to the Open Type to help determine which hypothesis is more likely to play out.

Hypothesis #1 - 2 way auction. ES will trade between 05 half to 21. I think this is the most likely scenario.

Hypothesis #2 - Initiative buyers push ES above ONHI @ 16.75, test 26 and then 31 & 34 quarter.

Hypothesis #3 - Since we are opening in range, 1612 will most likely be tested. If we continue to go lower, then 1608 YCL, 1606.75 ONLO and re-test 1605 half. In the event that we break 05 half, then we will likely to test 92 quarter.

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  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, Texas
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 28 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 15 received


ES will most likely gap higher at the open. Overnight volume is now 90+% higher than 50d avg. We got a directional push to the upside after NFP.

Hypothesis #1 - Expecting responsive sellers to push ES back down and test YHI, ONLO. My plan is to get long if we test 24.25. If we continue down, then we should get a bounce @ 1613 and yesterday's VPOC @ 1608.
Hypothesis #2 - ES will continue higher, retest ONHI, push through the CLVN, tag the NVPOC @ 42.25 and test 47 CHVN. Will not hesitate to short 45-47 area. I'm thinking this is more likely to happen. Seems like buyers are back in control for the time being.
Hypothesis #3 - We may chop between ONHI to 1612 CHVN. I think this is less likely to happen but we have no more econ news on the calendar today.

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