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Trading Journal - Day Trading Crude Oil with Fibs & S/R


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Trading Journal - Day Trading Crude Oil with Fibs & S/R

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  #41 (permalink)
SLC, UT
 
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Most people struggle with the issue of over-trading, I seem to struggle with the opposite issue. I can't seem to put on the trade with it is the right time and others get in and out 3-4 times based on the one entry. I hate to do this i'm going to go back to sim for a week or two to get over this. I need to be proficient at entering and exiting when the signals present themselves. I tend to over-trade on sim and undertrade live. I'm going to focus on sim on just the best entries and record them all as best as possible. The idea is to build confidence in my setups and to help overcome that issue.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Short @ 104.32

Looking for 104's to break.

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  #43 (permalink)
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gsl8r View Post
Short @ 104.32

Looking for 104's to break.

Covered 103.95

Was hoping for a bigger break lower. High volume spike just barely.

Looking for re-short entry.

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  #44 (permalink)
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gsl8r View Post
Covered 103.95

Was hoping for a bigger break lower. High volume spike just barely.

Looking for re-short entry.

Trying to come up with a good way of showing my buys and sells on tos. Anyone have a good method you use?

I started out with a long bias thinking we were going to bounce on the OR that quickly put me under water but ended up alright the rest of the day.

9 RT moves all 1 lots on paper. I'm going to focus on consistent winning paper days and then go back to live.

One we broke below OR A-down was confirmed but it was a shake out back into the range for the rest of the day. You can see that I had 2 short winners both below the OR and then played the range the rest of the afternoon. The big long that I missed was at 11am right on the OR at 104.32. That was a high probability move but unfortunately I was away from my desk.

Another high probability move is the midpoint of the OR. I have it shown as a dotted line. The first touch of it there is usually a reaction that can be bought/sold. Today would have been a great sell right on it, I waited for it to react there and then got in but got out too early.

Have a great weekend all.

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  #45 (permalink)
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My morning session so far. That last long trade I was hoping for more of a break of the OR but didn't get it, then kept holding for a retest of highs but never got it and then held it for a small loss! Not my brightest idea.

I had a few other good trades but not up very much today.

I will post another chart if I make more trades.

I need to focus on trades with the short term trend. I tend to like fading moves but those don't always pan out.

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  #46 (permalink)
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gsl8r View Post
My morning session so far. That last long trade I was hoping for more of a break of the OR but didn't get it, then kept holding for a retest of highs but never got it and then held it for a small loss! Not my brightest idea.

I had a few other good trades but not up very much today.

I will post another chart if I make more trades.

I need to focus on trades with the short term trend. I tend to like fading moves but those don't always pan out.

No trades into the close today. Market participation slowed way down and no clear moves/direction.

Looking forward to tomorrow.

Important ideas from today is failed A-up move and rejection back into OR. Next time I see this scenario I will tighten up my stop in anticipation of failed A-up and if it fails I am out and preserve my profit. If it goes through then I hit my targets.

Also today there was a 4 tick front-run of the midpoint of the OR. I've been watching the OR midline which I show as a dotted cyan/turquoise line. Price usually reacts there on the first touch.

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  #47 (permalink)
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One thing I have noticed in trading all these years is that Bias is everything! Without a system that gives you a good bias on the day you are pretty much setting yourself up to lose. Your system should also tell you when the bias is no longer valid and when you shouldn't trust it anymore and when the opposite bias is now valid. If your system doesn't give you this essential ingredient then abandon it and go back to the drawing board.

The second big piece I see out there is discipline. Discipline in following your system and in taking your entries and exits. Everyone has their own method of trading from complete automation to complete discretion. My system falls somewhere in between leaning more towards automation based on the rules of entry. I obviously pull the trigger on the trades but i'm trying to limit discretion as much as possible. The best traders out there take every signal and know when to press and when to hold. That is what I am working towards.

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  #48 (permalink)
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My trades today. I'm not so proud of today's trades. We had some nice down movement and I didn't really catch any of it. I had a bunch of stop outs and my entries weren't very good.

I had a bunch of impulse trades that I shouldn't have taken and those added up against my overall p/n. I need to focus more on my entries and following my rules. I will do better tomorrow.

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  #49 (permalink)
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I made a trade today on Cotton. Ended up being quite a good trade. I've notice that cotton has been in rotational box mode for a week now. Thought I would get a short on.

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  #50 (permalink)
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Not so great of a morning. I kept missing longs with my limit orders trying to get the market just a little bit lower. That led to short trades at highs which didn't end up working out so well. I had a good overnight trade on crude which put my p/l in the positive for my start. Overall here is the chart.

Per my rules I should have only been looking for longs since A-up was confirmed. Instead I was taking shorts. Not so great of an idea......

Wash day

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