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GFIs1 HiLo ES signal
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GFIs1 HiLo ES signal

  #1 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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GFIs1 HiLo ES signal

After some experience with the mother thread: https://futures.io/trading-journals/25262-gfis1-hilo-dax-signal.html and thanks
to input of many readers I decided to separate the thread and focus on the
instrument as the rules will be different and some readers would like to
get "sec" info on their traded instrument.

*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***

Goal: Finding **THE** indicator showing the turning point within a chart.

This is not that easy as it looks. Taking a chart and looking back - everything seems obvious.
Finding a signal that indicates where the price is really turning would be a nice help.
With that signal we could take a short at *around* the highest point and wait until the low
signal comes up to sell the short and to take a long instead. And vice versa.

A trade might run several days - so the margin levels of overnight and over the weekend need to be checked with
the broker.

Rules for the ES will be posted later.

Looking forward to signals as well as response and input from our dear futures.io (formerly BMT) readers.
GFIs1

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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Swing trading the ES with a longer term view - rules using a 1h chart with Ichimoku Kumo (cloud), VWAP with band.

Very easy to implement and follow!


Last edited by GFIs1; May 9th, 2013 at 06:30 AM.
 
  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
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Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
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GFIs1 View Post
After some experience with the mother thread: https://futures.io/trading-journals/25262-gfis1-hilo-dax-signal.html and thanks
to input of many readers I decided to separate the thread and focus on the
instrument as the rules will be different and some readers would like to
get "sec" info on their traded instrument.

*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***

Goal: Finding **THE** indicator showing the turning point within a chart.

This is not that easy as it looks. Taking a chart and looking back - everything seems obvious.
Finding a signal that indicates where the price is really turning would be a nice help.
With that signal we could take a short at *around* the highest point and wait until the low
signal comes up to sell the short and to take a long instead. And vice versa.

A trade might run several days - so the margin levels of overnight and over the weekend need to be checked with
the broker.

Rules for the ES will be posted later.

Looking forward to signals as well as response and input from our dear futures.io (formerly BMT) readers.
GFIs1

@GFIs1 Thanks.

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker/Data: IB / DTN
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 4,128 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,780 given, 7,655 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

HiLo settings and Signal rules

Here we go with the main

Settings:

ES 1h chart
add Ichimoku (normal settings)
add VWAP line (violet in my charts)
add VWAP band (green in my charts) 3.3 times VWAP - beginning new on EVERY session
optional add ZigZag (min move 33 points) to see the max leg length

and Signals:

Go long when VWAP line enters into the blue Kumo AND VWAP band touches blue Kumo
stay in the trade...
as long as the VWAP band does NOT touch the RED Kumo - no need to stare at the screen

Illustration with a actual chart in the next post
GFIs

Go short when VWAP line enters into the red Kumo AND VWAP band touches red Kumo
stay in the trade...
as long as the VWAP band does NOT touch the Blue Kumo - no need to stare at the screen

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  #5 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Illustration and Chart

Showing the 1h chart of the ES in the last weeks.
Signals to go long are marked green and signal to go short is marked with a red circle.
Checked these rules with different time periods but the 1h was the best available setting
to take out min. 60% of a running leg (with no stress).

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Comments are welcome!

GFIs1

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  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Detail of Kumo FORM

In the above chart the entries are plain vanilla when VWAP band enters the Kumo.

Some distinction for Ichimoku users are explained in this post here.
In the chart (a part from post above) we can see two very different Kumos which lead to a
quick entry ("1.") OR waiting for price coming back ("2.").

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Seeing the behaviour on the marked arrow for the two LONG entries
"1."
blue Kumo is horizontal and opposite border is horizontal too:
ACTION: entry has to be quick - as price is attracted by the horizontal opposite border

and under arrow
"2."
blue Kumo is diagonal and offers NO horizontal opposite border
ACTION: let price go into Kumo and wait for price coming back - some points may be gained
by closing the short later (some plus points) AND starting next long on a lower level (some
plus points again).
In this case we do have time to let things play out.

So WATCH for the Kumo formation when price is getting near...

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; May 9th, 2013 at 07:26 AM.
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  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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What to look for

Now we are in the area where a reversal is in sight.
What are we looking for?
1) VWAP band on the 1h chart has to touch red Kumo
2) VWAP line has to scratch red Kumo too
3) for this price has to go underneath VWAP of course

Some illustration of the above preview here - executed TIME is NOT exact!

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have a great weekend
GFIs1

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  #8 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Eliminating FALSE signals

Looking at the same ES chart 1h here we get a situation on May 1st and May 2nd where, VWAP band and VWAP line
as well as price UNDER VWAP are diving into the red cloud. This normally leads to a reversal on the previous long...
But after that mini-dive the price went up again without problem and a real reversal point is NOT made.
The setting is session 0: starting with European hours until Globex end (08:00 to 22:00 CET):

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Now we are going to zoom into the same area with the same 1h but different TIME ZONE: only European cash hour here:

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Interestingly here the above mentioned dive into the cloud is totally eliminated - thus NO reversal signal @ these days.
So the most important zone here is where the two cash hours (EU & US) are overlapping - where most of the important
numbers are coming out and the moves on the appropriate indizes are making the "real" moves. Thus having
"no false moves" is the main goal to get the main signals.

CONCLUSION
Eliminating some problematic trading hours helps here to define the longest swings with high probable reversals.

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; May 11th, 2013 at 10:13 AM.
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  #9 (permalink)
Elite Member
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GFIs1 View Post
So the most important zone here is where the two cash hours (EU & US) are overlapping - where most of the important
numbers are coming out and the moves on the appropriate indizes are making the "real" moves. Thus having
"no false moves" is the main goal to get the main signals.

CONCLUSION
Eliminating some problematic trading hours helps here to define the longest swings with high probable reversals.

GFIs1

Fascinating! I reached exactly the same conclusion last month and set my main futures charts to Eurex time zone only...., cash indexes still run as Deutsche or US Equities.

I just keep one each ES and NQ 15min Default 24/7 alive to catch odd Globex h/l's.

Cheers

Travel Well
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  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 4,128 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,780 given, 7,655 received
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Not ripe...


The Dax seems to have found the high level point right now before diving...

but...
NOT the ES
It looks like the ES needs today and maybe 1 or 2 more days before the peak
is reached and a downmove might establish.
Looking forward to the next development - and posting if some foreseen behaviour
will arrive.

Good trades
GFIs1

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