*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***
Goal: Finding an indicator …
and thanks
to input of many readers I decided to separate the thread and focus on the
instrument as the rules will be different and some readers would like to
get "sec" info on their traded instrument.
*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***
Goal: Finding **THE** indicator showing the turning point within a chart.
This is not that easy as it looks. Taking a chart and looking back - everything seems obvious.
Finding a signal that indicates where the price is really turning would be a nice help.
With that signal we could take a short at *around* the highest point and wait until the low
signal comes up to sell the short and to take a long instead. And vice versa.
A trade might run several days - so the margin levels of overnight and over the weekend need to be checked with
the broker.
Rules for the ES will be posted later.
Looking forward to signals as well as response and input from our dear futures.io (formerly BMT) readers.
GFIs1
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ES 1h chart
add Ichimoku (normal settings)
add VWAP line (violet in my charts)
add VWAP band (green in my charts) 3.3 times VWAP - beginning new on EVERY session
optional add ZigZag (min move 33 points) to see the max leg length
and Signals:
Go long when VWAP line enters into the blue Kumo AND VWAP band touches blue Kumo
stay in the trade...
as long as the VWAP band does NOT touch the RED Kumo - no need to stare at the screen
Illustration with a actual chart in the next post
GFIs
Go short when VWAP line enters into the red Kumo AND VWAP band touches red Kumo
stay in the trade...
as long as the VWAP band does NOT touch the Blue Kumo - no need to stare at the screen
Showing the 1h chart of the ES in the last weeks.
Signals to go long are marked green and signal to go short is marked with a red circle.
Checked these rules with different time periods but the 1h was the best available setting
to take out min. 60% of a running leg (with no stress).
In the above chart the entries are plain vanilla when VWAP band enters the Kumo.
Some distinction for Ichimoku users are explained in this post here.
In the chart (a part from post above) we can see two very different Kumos which lead to a
quick entry ("1.") OR waiting for price coming back ("2.").
Seeing the behaviour on the marked arrow for the two LONG entries
"1."
blue Kumo is horizontal and opposite border is horizontal too:
ACTION: entry has to be quick - as price is attracted by the horizontal opposite border
and under arrow
"2."
blue Kumo is diagonal and offers NO horizontal opposite border
ACTION: let price go into Kumo and wait for price coming back - some points may be gained
by closing the short later (some plus points) AND starting next long on a lower level (some
plus points again).
In this case we do have time to let things play out.
So WATCH for the Kumo formation when price is getting near...
GFIs1
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Now we are in the area where a reversal is in sight.
What are we looking for?
1) VWAP band on the 1h chart has to touch red Kumo
2) VWAP line has to scratch red Kumo too
3) for this price has to go underneath VWAP of course
Some illustration of the above preview here - executed TIME is NOT exact!
have a great weekend
GFIs1
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Looking at the same ES chart 1h here we get a situation on May 1st and May 2nd where, VWAP band and VWAP line
as well as price UNDER VWAP are diving into the red cloud. This normally leads to a reversal on the previous long...
But after that mini-dive the price went up again without problem and a real reversal point is NOT made.
The setting is session 0: starting with European hours until Globex end (08:00 to 22:00 CET):
Now we are going to zoom into the same area with the same 1h but different TIME ZONE: only European cash hour here:
Interestingly here the above mentioned dive into the cloud is totally eliminated - thus NO reversal signal @ these days.
So the most important zone here is where the two cash hours (EU & US) are overlapping - where most of the important
numbers are coming out and the moves on the appropriate indizes are making the "real" moves. Thus having
"no false moves" is the main goal to get the main signals.
CONCLUSION
Eliminating some problematic trading hours helps here to define the longest swings with high probable reversals.
GFIs1
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Fascinating! I reached exactly the same conclusion last month and set my main futures charts to Eurex time zone only...., cash indexes still run as Deutsche or US Equities.
I just keep one each ES and NQ 15min Default 24/7 alive to catch odd Globex h/l's.
Cheers
Travel Well
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
The Dax seems to have found the high level point right now before diving...
but...
NOT the ES
It looks like the ES needs today and maybe 1 or 2 more days before the peak
is reached and a downmove might establish.
Looking forward to the next development - and posting if some foreseen behaviour
will arrive.
Good trades
GFIs1
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But with no confirmed signal there would be no reason to trade long term short anyway? And no reason to give up seen either I think?
We have to stay patient and open minded about the future, unlike some bears who have been calling W3 down for eternity and we have been in a W3 up......, Regardless of final levels, impulse waves are relentless and have to be shown respect in unusual times, and these are definitely that.
Too many people want to 'trade the crash' when in fact crashes usually happen in already oversold conditions, not overbought - the latter more often lead to runaway melt-ups like we see now.
Travel Well
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
Some weeks after the short ES entry @ 1655 we have a actual price of 1618 - so in the green ;-)
The main question resists - if price is going further down - my answer - YES.
Next goal is 1460 area... some rebound thereafter is foreseen.
This highly probable scenario of course is not for the next week though but within a month.
Chart:
GFIs1
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In above chart I described the short entry / Instrument ES @ price of ~1653.
The ES behaviour in the chart with Ichimoku is VERY different to that of the Dax.
My entry scenario would have been perfect in the view for the Dax as that one never
comes back into a higher red Kumo after having passed it.
ES is very different though after having passed the red Kumo and gave a signal confirmation.
After some days the ES went up again to the last high of the VWAP line with a price of
1673 on May 28. This would mean to get out of the long @ 1673 and go short @ 1673
instead of @ 1653... which results in 2x20 points! Take it or not
So my next scenario in a given case would be to sit the first downmove out and to
enter exactly on the second high - as described in the following modified ES chart:
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Here an overview on ES daily with Ichimoku.
Price has crossed bullish Kumo and is now caught with resistance above.
So the normal way to go is to find next support levels underneath. As
these are quite far away we might see a longer phase of short right now.
Yellow line is for next goal 14xx.
GFIs1
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On Friday - the day after US holiday we see a massive divergence on US versus EU indices:
While the Dax rushed up on Thursday (US was closed) we had the very strange behaviour
on Friday: ES made the up and Dax already heavily down... (so what will come on Monday? )
You can see the missing Thursday candle here - as I am using the german chart settings.
ES went again into centered in the Kumo. From Monday I am expecting the same downmove
in the ES as the Dax made on Friday.
To compare with the Dax - have a look here:
*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***
Goal: Finding an indicator …
in post 162.
The original scenario discussed earlier is still valid. So price might follow the black line to
lower levels (1460 area) with some hefty moves in the next weeks - so be prepared.
Our longterm short since @ 1653 is still green..
GFIs1
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The ES is now above the kumo, the 0.62 retracement and short term resistance trend line (1632). It make me change my scenario last night. I think the drop for 1500 is for later and the immediate step will be 1700/20.
Thanks for your scenario - appreciated!
In my view I would like to show the daily ES here first:
In my daily chart the price went out "north" on the daily Kumo intraday - but price is sinking back again.
So I have no doubt - even for the ES - that this was the maximum up-extent possible where Kumo is
thickest right now. Looking at two main indicators here:
1) red TenkanSen sits underneath Kumo (bearish)
2) blue KijunSen has arrived near bottom of Kumo.
Both lines have NOT crossed within Kumo here - so the original trend (down) has to be seen as valid.
Then I have the spiral which crosses next @ about 2nd week of august between Kumo twist (red vertical
dotted line)
3) company half year numbers are coming from today and are expected lower than high expectations
given with the pricing right now
4) lower volumes during July and August are leading to higher vola
Given all this I am still convinced to see my (yes you can no longer see it ) scenario to see prices
fall into 1460/80 1500 area first.
Tomorrow - I am very looking forward - I hope to see some proof of the above points made!
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
ok - let's see two different Ichimoku matters here:
a) the ES is NOT so easily charted and interpreted with cloud and behaviour of distance from
Hi to middle of cloud as from middle cloud to the Lo
b) Dax is very easily calculated - behaviour is in over 80% occurencies "normal"
Having now a look at both instruments with current prices:
a) ES is on top within a thinner daily Kumo - candle did NOT close yet above Kumo
b) Dax is still in the lower 3rd of a thicker Kumo and should with high probablity get underneath
the Kumo again - as TenkanSen, KijunSen are still showing bearish.
c) to round it up - for the Dax the green ChikouSpan has passed the pair Tenkan/Kijun and
rests lower than the pair - this is a second help to "see" lower prices being higher probable.
(For the ES this is at the moment not true - but at least "neutral")
Hope this helps
GFIs1
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to answer your question properly for the Dax here:
If the red TenkanSen is pushing up into Kumo and crossing the still resisting
KijunSen IN the KUMO - that would be a strong long signal - and I would
change my scenario.
There is no "price" given - as the two lines react a bit lagging - but we would
know definitely before weekend.
GFIs1
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