Trades that is. Not the recommended intake of vegetables and fruit. Technically of course an Irish Coffee provides the optimum 5-a-day : Alcohol, Caffeine, Sugar, Fat and Water.
Anyway, this is where I will now live after finally plucking up the courage to start a journal. Thanks to all who have gone before for the inspiration and perspiration that has helped me begin the journey, however tentative. I can promise only one thing - that it will be honest. It may well be where I make the Time To Quit decision. Or not. Who knows?
All trades are intraday, usually Dax (cash levels) with occasional Euro or ES. Mostly European trading hours only. Five will be the maximum trades allowed regardless of outcome. I will end a day after 3 losers, 3 winners or just plain acting stupidly. I will try to get the API posting stuff working into here if I can.
In the meantime we'll kickoff with some pretty pictures - here's Dax and ES doing the rocketship thing after the latest influx of paper and ink. I wasn't on board (am usually flat into news.)
(What Harry Scherman would think I cannot begin to imagine. Finished reading 'The Promises Men Live By' (1938) on vacation last week. Managed to get an autographed copy for a tenner. Fabulous book.)
Cheers
Travel Well
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Thanks @vvhg and @Big Mike ! The vvScreenShot indicator was a doddle to install in all my charts (such cool remembering, ta!) and works a treat. Now I have even fewer excuses.
I found a focus today and I hope I can carry it forward into the remainder of the year. Guess this is a serious job or none at all.
Strictly psychological work for the last 4 days - painting fence panels in the sun. Am physically trashed but mentally refreshed.
Catching up on futures.io (formerly BMT) posts this morning, one small Dax short off the HWB of the OR for a very tiny scared profit. Should have (a) had the balls to post the trade and (b) held it longer. No change there then. Just looks chop continuation for now.
Short cash Dax at 8224 stop 8244 after possible buying exhaustion spike at a s/t 1.27 reverse swing extension. Suspect trade as above OR, in long trend and in new highs area with no clear setup on ES to correspond so we're looking for a development really and probably should have waited longer.
Just closed out at break-even as took 18 points of heat on stop, it can run without me unless I re-enter on a better setup.
Short Dax cash 8234 stop 8254, possible completed nested wave patterns and repeated choppy nibbling of highs without breakout with ES also at a profit target. If Dax does it will fly and the trade will die otherwise it should start to rollover for a breather.
Trader still lacking patience and lacking respect for trend but interesting first day trying this journal game.
Cash Dax now closed at 8252.29, my Finspreads Germany 30 DFT trade still open (still runs with FDAX outside cash hours) but likely to get stopped soon.
Three poor trades, all early due to lack of patience and with wrong-headed short side bias, strangely only patience and sticking to the rules (no moving stops) allowed me to get out for next to nothing after taking maximum heat. I think that's a plus, at least I've got something to hang a battered hat on.
Oscillating in the Dax - still I am cautious about shorts right now:
Looking for Friday where a top might be made with a turning signal to get
some consolidation.
Today's Dax volume is pretty low (33K up to now) - because of a main holiday...
Good trades
GFIs1
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..the ES has in the 1h chart still a longer way to go before turning short.
The distance from VWAP band and Kumo is longer. But things might happen
at the same time - and ES has to drop a bit more ;-)
Looking here at the ES chart - I think today nothing dramatic happens.
From Friday on up to 20th this month some turning point is highly probable.
GFIs1
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And they just put another flush onto bottom of range support in the Dax so they could fetch my trade for nothing - looks best today if I go out to hunt for dinner.
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Two trades only in European time.
First short stopped -10 points, poor early one eyed trade, trader caught not concentrating.
Second short good s/t analysis and entry stopped for 0, had +14 on table, played for range breakdown, wrong choice, instead of setting stop b/e should have closed and reversed long after seeing flush onto support.
-10, 0 total -10. (10 point stops used in tight range day.)
Spent a little time removing a few charts and ES from main Dax screens for a simpler less cluttered Eurex layout, less feels better, much as I fight it.
Am warming to the live journal posting, though have to admit that yesterday was *terrifying*.
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Froze at the open again, too busy reading posts. Nice brave call @GFIs1, your stop size selection is good!, but I just noticed unlucky today as I was focussed on s/t too much. Matters not.
Only one 20min binary option trade for me so far +5 points in the naughty boys play account. Would have been +48 if I held it.
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No trades for me so far today, often not on a Monday and particularly after only half a night's sleep. Better now after a kip. (old age, I know, probably why I was in negative time space too....)
Love having @vvhg 's T&S on-board now, sweet indeed. Thank you.
I am happy with my first foray into the journal last week, I have realized that if I don't have time to post what I'm thinking when I take a trade then I'm probably not thinking. Although it is clear to me that much of my approach does rely on 'feel', it has to be intuitive based on the patterns presented on several dimensions and not reactive and emotional. We shall see.
Have resolved to journal the binary option account as well as the main trade account, seems more in keeping with treating the game as the serious job that it is rather than having half as a playpit where I can excuse myself dumb trades more easily. Focus. Focus. Focus.
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Short cash Dax at 8322 stop 8242. (0.786 of drop from Fri high, reasonably looking 5dn, 3 up,) doesn't feel like a great trade though due to the high level of support still in ES.
edit: stop lowered to 8332, above consol could run much more so don't need wider.
edit2: stopped for -10.
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Ok yesterday no sleep so we didn't trade but just watched a handful of great setups go to successful completion (trigger pulling blocked due to self-imposed tiredness rule.) Frustration index rising.
Today, oversleep instead, plus errands to run and appointments, frustration index definitely warm to hot, watch a couple more good setups, feel the real 'fear' of pulling the trigger and can't, since obviously if the one's we watch 'work' when we don't pull the trigger then obviously the one's when we do will fail....
And throw a rule break stop move in for good measure. But at least I knew it didn't 'feel' right.
Still at least a quick-off-the-draw option can re-light the candle.
Trading. Yeah, Right.
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Not a nice day, weather lousy and Dax messing around just under the hwb for the day, needs to lose it soon or we are going to mess around playing silly triangle up here for quite a while.
Long cash Dax 8337 stop 8327, it can either prove its a triangle or take me down with it. Dodgy trade methinks.
Edit: Closed for -2, if I think its dodgy why put it on? It can work now of course....
Today felt like a complete beginner again, sit staring wondering how I can have learned so much but do so little right, watch the good setups, again don't take them, take two poor setups for -2 and +2, and play 2 complete gamble binary option boredom trades for -24 and -20.
Notice how easy it was to slip once more into the 'find the evidence to support the one idea I used to trigger this alleged triangle trade' mode, rather than 'can I take this trade because the whole context and reaction looks right?'
SO, beginners get to start again, we close down the binary option platform, it will not be re-opened, and we close down the US/ES workspace and stick to the Dax/Eurex focus and the main account that we had agreed with ourself, the agreement which lasted mere minutes. Oh fickle creature, what is thy mind made of - nought but fluff?
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Spent the morning listening to Ben's excellent talk and clearing some chart space, found a trade, took it and voila!
This is purely for my own confidence record as I've had a tough time believing that I can actually do this (after a very long time...)
Remembered who I am, what my style is and took the time to find a setup, in this case the Dax reacting off the 127% reverse expansion of last Fri-Mon drop and appearing to form an s/t flag which I played as a leading wedge down/abc up instead.
Closed the trade as its back on support and I don't mind bounce or serious follow through at this point, I am beginning to find myself at last.
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Stuck to my rules today: 1) It's Friday so trade less and trade half-size. 2) It's Opex so don't trade.
That of course is mildly frustrating but I know it's the right decision for now.
Also stuck to the R&D rules this morning - can only remove charts, remove stuff from charts or move charts to a more or less significant position on screen. In all cases only one criteria to apply - is this information useful? Fascinating when you do that in a ruthless manner, albeit I had a lot on-screen to start with.
I think I also had some insight (probably controversial) regarding volume profiles and footprints, etc - I don't think the methods are any less subjective than any other way of finding 'hotter probability spots' in a chart - it just might be rather that successful users have subconsciously taught themselves how to buy strength and sell weakness at the right times, whereas the majority of us will tend to do the opposite all too often. I think it's a definite maybe anyway, but then I'm probably an agnostic.
Have a great weekend
Travel Well
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Looks like being choppy in front of Benny and the Inkjets. Move up or down out of this 26 point range should be strong either way. Have scalped 9, 5, 5 inside but am now flat.
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Dax range has simply widened from 26 points to 46, typical on a Fed watch type of day when ES as usual is sat between 2 fibs setups, 'to squeeze or not to squeeze', always the question. No answer this early. Ta, da.
Haven't posted much for simple reason - not much worth saying, have lacked confidence for a few days, still talked myself out of too many good trades. Antidote - continue to simplify system, have now gone from a boatload of workspaces and charts to just 2 workspaces and a handful of charts.
Had an awful frazzled day stupidly messing around in the range yesterday. Antidote - got rid of huge splashes of red off the screen (a la DS psyche recommend), feels much calmer today. Result 3 winning scalps no losers. Loved @GFIs1 trade but closed early to fill hole in account I had made yesterday.
Also wanted to remind myself of some basics, decided best way to help myself was by helping a fellow traveller:
How????? Too much action around the level for me, yet it looks simple. Too big.
Some (non) random lines for you to ponder...... have a great weekend, get some health. :)
DH helped me to see a part of the jigsaw and no, it's not a Holy Grail, but …
I wish one and all a great weekend break. I will be digging, planting and fitting skirting boards. Oh and finding out where I can learn more plumbing. For the bit between the ears that is...
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Just noticed on the auto-painting box ES and NQ both dumped onto support in the big sell-off, no surprise there, been running short setups but may well have put in at least 'B' wave lows for now (I'm always cautious of immediate downside once we start playing outside and above a down-sloping wedge or vice-versa. Dax in particular looked to do so this afternoon.
From an EW view dropping under the week's lows ought to get fairly traumatic for bulls, on the other hand ES above 47-48 ought to get a bit squeezy towards 60-65 again first.
Fyi APB is a work in progress. Ask me at Christmas. Wouldn't put my granny's white fivers on it yet.
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And here we are as advertised. ES above 66 and then holding a bigger pullback could yet again open the door much higher. Dax stuck in pointless post-holiday micro range all morning, so maybe we'll look tomorrow for continuation or fail at resistance.
Waste of effort day really, other than self-study. Ended +5 points after a 5:3 wins to losses scalping, so clearly woeful R/R at play, just good practice on platform/trade management, so that's still useful I suppose.
I am becoming comfortable with a more relaxed approach to entries and have realised that I do 'know' early on when I'm wrong (market disagrees with me) or more importantly when I have done wrong (broken rules/impulse traded/etc) and can get out quickly in either case. Just not selecting well enough, still too keen to be 'always in the game' as opposed to stalking. May have to introduce a one-an-hour speed limit.
Sadly I have not yet got past the Big Psycho - when I'm in a losing trade I have an almost comfortable resignation to it, whether I kill it or get stopped out, yet when I 'know' I am in a good trade (market agrees, no rules broken, good entry, will get to target) then I suffer an almost unbearable pain - weird and discomforting it is and hence I cut most target hitting trades well short if not even at birth.
Work In Progress
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Hard day today, lost a hat-full of points on a stack of dumb trades (rules, window, out of...) - then had a major epiphany by realising that a huge problem was not knowing what type of trader I was trying to be. Realised that I look for swings and trends but then behave like a scalper mixed up with a baseball hitter and consequently get risk/reward and trade management upside down big time.
So, deleted yet another significant chart that I have clung onto for what I can see were purely sentimental reasons, and now have a simpler layout again - 1 medium-term context/structure screen, 1 short-term context/structure screen and 1 screen purely for entries with a clear plan of how and when to prioritise each, ideally with minimal functional interference.
Interesting change in perception and action after the modifications and promptly hit 4 good scalp winners. Still didn't fill the morning's hole but we are progressing, if I can get past the idiotic rule breaks.
Hard day ended as a good day, but then all learning days are. Am I a closet scalper waiting to get out? Or are there really two of me?
Before you hit the DOM and make the trade you will know what stage of the day it is and your intention for the trade. Just write it down and stick to your stops !
CORE Trade: You trade the DAX - it moves 100-125 points in a day ... it takes GFIs1 sometimes 3 hours to get in profit or before he is stopped out. How often have you had 30 points in crap trades within the same 15 point range ??? A Core trade is going for the big swing ... it might need a bit of room before it is wrong.
SWING Trade: Your stop will be above/below the relevant HH / LL
SCALP Trade: If you see 3 points profit and you know that you would chicken out (maybe multiple times on the same bar) for 3 points loss .. that is your exit point
Good luck .. to both of you !
p
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The irony is that if I had listened to my own system and @GFIs1 then it would have been a very different day, but that is the nature of the beast within that I fight every single day. We'll see what has been tamed by end of the year.
Decided to sit more comfortably with having a high mix of scalps in the day. Win ratio is solid - another 5:3 yesterday but ended flat due to smaller winners, today so far 8:1 for +15 points, with the morning compromised by a typical impatient swing attempt.
Have removed yet more clutter from screens. Need to work on better target holds for scalps and more patience required in general, otherwise will die by a thousand cuts instead of just half a dozen.
Less in front of the eyes is definitely making for a more relaxed attitude, though the need to actually believe the eyes is still high priority. Looking forward to next week and continuing to develop a mix of scalps with just two or three core trades per day.
edit: Just scalped another +5 to end a tidy morning. Note to self for next week - Work On The Sitting.
Have a good weekend one and all. The sun is returning to the UK.
Travel Well
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Fair day, caught up in small move trades, always seemed to be distracted/cooking/etcetera when the good setups were on the table, frustrating from that aspect but finished +19 points, happy enough for now.
Still getting used to the revised layout and developing a new approach - to concentrate on 'reaction/safe entry?' first then 'what might it mean?' second, in order to get away from a more typical focus on structure and pattern that usually builds a growing bias and disbelief of eyes. Still need to have both in place but swapping the look order is my way of 'Breaking A Habit.' Well, one of them.
Finished European session with +14 from scalps, so 4 consecutive positive days.
Bit seat of pants stuff in today's volatility, missed a cracking setup and took a few trades off after taking heat, cost me a lot of points but I'm taking it as deserved punishment for jumping the gun on trades that are against the plan. The reward is simply learning to manage my way out of dumb trades pretty well. One day I'll stop putting them on in the first place. Yeah, Right.
Dumped another 4 sentimental charts off the screens and put one of Al's on. Well you know. The One. Ha. Simpler layout getting more so every week, though some would still say Daliesque.
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ES holding under short extension for now, if it busts above 1616 and then holds c1610ish then it re-opens long doors otherwise still targetting 1600ish.Dax is trying to break out (often leads). Flat for now.
Paintbox confirming unusually dense battle area, hence maximum stuckery before continuation lower or squeezy breakout. Time to dig a bit while they sort it out.
More time digging and reading than trading today, finished European session with a paltry +7 points from scalps, 4:3 win/loss, one full stop out. Mostly stepped aside today due to the high volatility, missed some great trades for sure.
Still, that's 5 winning days and weirder still is the account is +19%. Aggressive use of 4%/10tick trade stops and high probability of getting something versus a low R/R is keeping me in there. However, I know it's fragile and need the sitting on core trades to come in soon so that I can improve R/R substantially and reduce the overly aggressive position size. It is a deliberately small account though.
Ditched more stuff off screens (still got loads), fascinating what I now see on 'Al's chart' with emphasis changed completely. In every year gone by I would have seen big red bars and thought 'I can catch that' - now I see them and find myself internally vocalising 'Al's selling that'. Of course I don't yet sell them but I do step aside. Maybe next year....
Travel Well
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Down -10 on Friday one trade only, full stop out so finished (6 day) week +54 points so far since end May. Sounds good but it isn't as the small scalps are preventing me from focusing on core trades and I'm not doing what I set out to and posting slower, more interesting trades, will try harder next week.
More pleased in fact with the constant slimming down of the system, although another headful of ideas entered the brain while out walking yesterday.
Good (sunny again, yay!) Weekend One and All
Travel Well
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Breadth remains heavy on the Deutsche, I am +14 points for the morning's scalping, will break and wait for US session now, may well be a 'B' wave low in here but under the current lows could also get fast so in no hurry to second guess a bigger trade.
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Expected 'B' wave or larger order low sure came in but I didn't trade it, can be dodgy, tomorrow should be interesting.
Fair enough day, finished European session +19 points, no cigars but enough smoke for a good kipper.
Dax EW is mystery this morning, looks like it can fly or die from here depending on an ES squeeze or not. Am flat (-10, +11, net +1) for the early session. Awaiting developments, its and mine.
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Finished with just +6 for the European session, puzzled by Dax structure earlier this morning so stuck with a few scalps again. I can't say I'm entirely happy with what has become of me as a trader but on the other hand a/c +27% so far this month with 75% win:loss over 45 fixed stop loss trades must mean something. (I know what it has always meant in the past.... so much work still to do to reduce the aggressive position size, etcetera.)
The surprise upside since I started this journal thing is that my attention to detail and 'feel' for the market has become much more intense, I can now watch hundreds of points go by and know that it doesn't matter a jot. I am stalking and walking far better - just not sitting yet - that will remain a frustration and a fear until it clears, but strangely I know that it will when I'm ready.
Anyway, cut myself some slack and wrote some tasty software today.
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Tough day, got caught distracted playing with toys and watching webinars so took two full stop outs on the chin, down -20, had to graft sensibly to regain +26 and finish net +6 (again, ho, hum).
Lousy R/R still a factor obviously, irony is that my first trade of the day would have netted +115 if I had used a 20 point stop instead of my fixed 10 and just gone gardening, frustrating but we've all been there. Really need to sit on one or two of these a week or month sometime soon, its the major habit/deadlock for me to crack.
Anyway, Dax continued to lift against a very negative deta all afternoon, building what might be a bearish ending diagonal, but of course if it was short sellers getting trapped early and not just profit taking then they'll turn it into a running correction and all hell will break out with a squeeze to the upside instead. Tomorrow beckons.
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Nice thread and certainly some good thoughts. 2 questions
a. how do you do your top down analysis ...and perhaps you can share your now "slimmed down" entire screen ...
b. you are trading an instrument that has an ADR of 120 points/240 ticks ... and you talk about ... +6 ...??
I mean .... +6 ....
Your mission should you choose to accept it ..... is to hang on to one or two of those cars and just SIT ON IT. Move the ABE up to +0 and JUST SIT ON IT MAN !!!!!!
No excuses ... send the results by reply !
very best regards
p
p.s. no more posts until you've sat on a couple ....you know it makes sense
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Friday softy development day for me so no trades so far, will be half-size if I do. Cash Dax may have completed a 5 wave or zigzap up to 8175 and may want a larger correction - caution if it stalls around 8160 as it may still want at least its gapfill at 8107, clearer for continuation north if above that and ES also takes out 1635 but it also might want 18-19 first, so a wide range playpen atmo.
Wasted software playtime Friday, so I'm introducing a new rule that says no software development or watching webinars during trading hours and also deleting the no trading/half-size trading on Fridays/Mondays rule, they're now just trading days, to which all normal rules apply.
Still, wave and level analysis was bang on in the previous post, shame I didn't trade them. But I'll take another crummy +4 scalp and settle (happily) for the +37% from end May with the continued intent to reduce aggressive scalping and increase core trades (from near zero, lol). Have also resolved to only trade the European session as last week I was slipping back into the old 10-12 hour day habit and that's just stupid.
Had a great weekend at music festival and in the garden. Life, that's what the planet's for.
Firstly keeping an eye on Euro, Dax, Dow/ES monthly and weekly timeframes using basic s/r, wave patterns and fib levels. Also on these timeframes I really want to see engulfing bars before getting excited in either direction, and then always with pullbacks in mind of course.
For example these two decide if Benny and the Inkjets can destroy the dollar or not:
Here we have no engulfing bars to suggest a strong trend change yet:
And here we have Dax and ES still playing nicely in their sandpits:
Below these timeframes I focus on 30min, 3min, 1 min, 100 range and 12 second Dax/Fdax charts, making heavy use of gaps and opening ranges to tell me where the market has been, together with DH style Fibs on ES 15min, then delta, momentum, volume reactions and internals to tell me where it might go in the context of my current (always has to be hazy) RTH EW picture that might best fit my ETH Fib map and Daliesque screen action shots.
Funny game trading isn't it.
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Poor execution day, set myself against the market early in both directions and of course it never looked back, giving me two -20's for the priviledge of turning up and trading like a donkey. Recovered to -11 at end of European session and had to faff around with cars and garages so I'm calling it a draw.
Concerned for the long side if ES loses 36 today after the gap up, as it may well lose 26 and head for 1576 sooner than expected. Just a definite maybe of course.
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Thanks, appreciate the support, first time in aeons I've stuck by my own analysis, still not long enough but I am content and, more importantly, comfortable with who I am, what I do and how I do it. Fear still prevented me from posting the trade while open though, incredible bareness of soul that trading exacts, guess I'm not alone there though.
Also got a bit over-excited talking future action, fortunately exercised a woman's perogative to not specify time, date or direction.
Cheers! (Theakston's Old Peculier for an old peculiar tonight )
Yesterday just one dumb experimental trade for a full -10 slap. Then quickly realised Fed type chop in Europe so went out to play. Might be similar today but hopefully not the first bit.
Hmmm, got that bit right. Tomorrow's another day, ho, hum.
Lesson 1 - why ignore 90% of evidence on my screens and focus only on the 'hope' bit, have to let the market come to me, it sure isn't going to happen the other way around.
Lesson 2 - today already felt like a 'deathwish trades' type day - why ignore that feeling and press on.
Lesson 3 - success is a trader's greatest enemy, having read one chart correctly we think we can read them all.
Lesson 4 - stop trying to read all the posts, watch webinars and deal with external stuff in job time.
Ok, bullish 5up, abc2 dn and watch out above if 8285 gets taken out, OR bearish 5dn and expanded flat abc up, watch out below if 8190 goes. For now am short 8235 stop 8245 but this might just be one of those no-go best in the garden days. Thinking either ES beaks out topside in extensions and the bulls put themselves in a long tight squeeze to defend through Benspeak or it wants 32-33 first, lower if 29 goes.
Edit: Stop now b/e, if they fetch it we're probably going much higher and scenario 1 likely true instead. Short for now.
Closed for +44 points to repair earlier day donkey account damage, it can go much lower from here, but on a Fed day anything's possible so that'll do into 1600GMT.
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Thanks again for sharing your stuff. Please don't think that I'm trying to teach you (or anyone else) anything. I know that you've probably got that as we seem to share a sense of humour .. but I'll state it for the record (just in case anyone wants to help you out ! :-) ).
I have changed my trading 'style' (I use the word in a very loose sense) and am very much influenced by @Fat Tails and @Private Banker and @GFIs1. The tools they have made and the way they speak about the market make me focus on the big picture.
1. Scalping seemed like a good idea as it was "low risk" (meaning "small stops") and for a beginner it appeals because you just can't stand being in the market for too long. All those hormones play havoc with a guy's judgement. However in the end it is not low risk and you overtrade. You take waaay too many trades and rack up the losses whilst your winners are cut short. This isn't going to do it unless you are made of different stuff to me.
2. With the FDAX let's look at some facts. We are dealing with an instrument that has a daily range of 250 ticks. It is going to run > 200 ticks much of the time. Two hundred ! That is 2.500 Euros per car. So I say to myself - what the hell am I getting stressed about 10 or 20 ticks when I know that this baby is going to run for 200. Anybody that has traded the FDAX and taken either a 2 or 3 point winner or loser (!) and then watched the price move 100 points in the direction of your trade knows this. I changed my method because when that happens it hurts. A lot.
3. The fact is that as informed but unsteady traders (I am speaking about myself here - not anybody else) we are only really worried about the first 20 ticks ... and never the last 20. It's hard to take heat.
4. Making a method:
You really need to know whether you want to be long or short on a day or during a particular time of day. For this you need some sort of trend filters. There are many but Pivots and Market Profile offer many that will give you an and take into account the whole day. This means that you will look for areas on your chart throughout the day where you feel that most people will join in with you and therefore the price will move in that direction. Even if you are a little late to the party - understanding the big picture may help you take the heat.
S/R levels. Here is where experience counts for so much. There are just so many levels. I have a trading buddy that I chat to during the day. We are both trading the same instrument and both trading in a similar fashion. I look to the VWAP to frame my trades and he has a much cleaner chart than I do and draws S/R lines and channels manually and trades off those. We don't always see or act on the same S/R levels and don't even use the same timeframe charts but we are often in the same direction at the same time. The thing with S/R is that there are just so many timeframes, levels and indicators that none of them will be right all the time. I tend to just look at price movement that is speeding up or slowing down and then develop my sense as to whether the movement will be absorbed or whether there will be a continuation.
Entries and Targets. You seem to have a "comprehensive" set of inputs. When I say comprehensive I mean way too much for me to take in. If it works for you and if by 08:30 CET you can say ... "Right then, I'm feeling long for the morning" then that is fine. If by 08:30 or even 08:55 ... most days of the week any trader is saying "I'm not sure .. " then you have too much stuff in your head and you don't have a mental plan of how to trade the morning. At best you will do nothing or at worst you will go long when you see green and go short when you see red and leave the rest to the fickle gods of Entry and Stop-Loss.
The big lesson for me on the FDAX is that if you are not careful you are often going to take a lot of small (or medium) sized losses within a relatively small range. Just looking at our Helvetican friend GFIS1. He doesn't always get the direction right but when he does he let's the instrument do the work. This is not the ES. The thing is going to fluctuate and the big picture is that sometime between 09:00 and 12:00 it will have moved 180 ticks and then it will do it again between 14:30 and 17:00. Yo might have been right 10 times on the direction and still never made a penny because your R:R is not attuned to the market movement overall.
I learn a lot by live trading (mostly how stupid I am) but also a lot by SIM. I think that applying TST style Combine strict criteria to yourself is a good thing. Train on the SIM and when you can kill it and trade some of those 100 tick winners then move on to live. Have a TST style max drawdown and go back to SIM when you get killed. Only go back to live when you have corrected the behavior that caused you to get killed when you were live.
Anyway - I see that you got +44 yesterday - that is a nice number. How many trades ?
@PandaWarrior once tuned me into an important statistic that I like to monitor. Total points gained vs Total points risked.
If a trader risks 10 points per trade and makes 10 trades a day - that is 100 points. If the same trader made 12 points at the end of the day ... well ... that is out of balance. It's just a statistical accident.
I'm looking for that balance. With an instrument like the FDAX you need to let it run to stay in balance.
Keep punching !
p
p.s. When I say "you" ... I mean "a trader" .. not Ratfink !
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Hi @podski, Great post, always good to get input like that, thank you.
I do have a lot of stuff going on and have also been overly focussed on short fast trades, that is something I am working on reducing. The whole journal thing is something I have found most revealing (terrifying in fact), and I have to extend a massive thanks to @Big Mike for that and this whole amazing site and all its participants (in particular 'Cool Hand Luke'...)
I have not been a big fan of VWAP type stuff, for reasons mentioned in a different post I made elsewhere this morning, all bands have serious flaws - but I remain open-minded, that is a sweet chart you added here, thanks.
Technically (from Fibs/EW/Volume/Internals) I usually know where the market is and what it wants to do regardless of what the majority of buyers/sellers want it to do, 95% of my serious Work In Progress issues are character flaws - all mine.
Regarding yesterday, the +44 was just the one trade in the previous post, so not bad, had it not been Fed day I might have left it overnight as my EW and ES levels were bang on, as evidenced this morning. I took a dumb -20 on the one before that, but that's ok it was simply a dumb trade, which got my rag off and got me 4 lessons written down.
For the month so far I am up +38% but am being deliberately aggressive in a small account with usually 4% 10 tick stop trades to see if I can handle the pressure and discipline in this journal. I will probably reduce that to 1 or 2% with 20 tick stops as soon as 30-40 point core trades begin to dominate over the scalp mentality.
We will see what it looks like by the end of the year.....gulp, the technicals and the plan are fine, the issue is simply moi.
Cheers and Thanks!
Travel Well
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No trades yesterday, a day full of legals, car stuff and visitors, shame with that trend, saw two sweet setups that I should have hit but was always in-between stuff so it had to pass. In previous years I might have jumped on it but in previous years I might also have tried to buy a low when in fact the day was clearly a hold short into the close so I'll happily settle for no account damage and a great family party instead.
Half play day today, working on revised broker platform layout, stayed away from core trades on Swiss boss advice, couldn't resist the scalps though, frustratingly rough start with 3 duffers but then hit 4 champs, finished +11 for the day. That's fine, good mouse/platform/grafting practice and, after 3 weeks of the journal discipline, trade risk size now down to 3.3%.
Small beans compared to all the big trend hitters I know but it doesn't matter, more important (for me at this stage) than hitting the big winners is that I now know I can coldly recover from losses. I now know I have a high signal to noise ratio in my approach and bigger runs will come once I get more of the eyes<->head<->jelly<->finger issues sorted.
Have also resolved to take a strong approach to the account, if I can double it then I will fund it to match, no additional funding going in otherwise, I really want to continue to aggressively test and bash the S:R as well as continue to slowly improve the R:R from both position size and swing size aspects.
Best to all for a good weekend, after a week of roughed-up and changing character markets.
Travel Well
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ES still trading shorts under its larger extension, looks to want 1560-62 unless 76.50 and 81.50 are first taken out upside to re-open a look for long side pullbacks to test the 1625 area.
Dax has put in a nice Swiss flush and trying to find a foothold, who knows today or maybe turnaround Tuesday, but mood has changed for the time being. I missed it while a computer decided to disconnect. C'est la vie.
Travel Well
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Paintbox also looking for similar 60ish area unless wedge gets broken first, horizontal line goes back to the end of the first quarter. While we're in a short term bear mood though surprises can tend to happen to the downside, so good evidence of trend breaks required.
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Finished +12 points for European, missed the morning trend and taken out of scrappy chop again so it'll do. Chucked another chart (no more tick charts left now) in the process.
From 53.75 thinking ES needs 65, 81, 91 to break active extensions and even consider pullbacks for longs, otherwise trend remains solidly down. (Unless of course stealth turnaround and squeeze induction towards 1620.) It is currently wobbling in middle of possible wide 40-60 support zone so could well drift or lift with Europe done for the day. Internals still suck though, so tomorrow (often turnaround Tuesday) might be a safer play if wanting a lift.
Will be many coasters but starting to look like a lot of fresh air under some of the longer term charts, perceived support zones might not have anybody home so validation getting more important.
Travel Well
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Analysis from the previous post seems to be bang on, no change in the last hour, not much point messing around until its all decided. Silly meddling executioner chucked -9 away on the Dax, tomorrow beckons.
Lose 72 and setup drop c1540 or break 92 and setup squeegeee ->1620 or find heathier long pullback if we haven't yet gone full hairy. In any detection case most people miss the motives, but sometimes heuristic PaintBox just captures the manual battle more prettily.
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Yesterday was a major teddy-out-of-the-pram day for me, lost a bucket of points. It has now passed and I can learn from it.
When I create alternative scenarios based on analysis it actually locks views into my head and stops me from really accepting what my system is telling me about intraday conditions. I simply switch on the 'ignore the evidence' filter. I have come to realise (for me at least) the idea that holding alternates keeps us open minded is a fallacy.
It is just another tricky form of the 'we understood that chart well, so we can understand them all' trap that is so true and has been written about by many - I need to understand that a chart can most definitely be not understandable for the simple reason that it is still developing. Get used to it - I need to see that certain conditions are right for each and every trade and only then look for the warm and glowing overview that might fit, not the other way around. For others it might just be a priority ordering issue but I now know what I personally have to do to stay focussed on the trades rather than the pictures.
As a deliberate exercise this morning I forced myself to focus on the here and now right inside just a few of the charts and signals and ignore all else, distractions, big pictures, this versus that, etcetera. Guess what, it works and makes better use of the adrenaline, made +34 back in one hour. I know some would say just one chart would be even better but I can't do that - I still need a view of the world - even if it's one I constantly need to hold at arm's length.
I write this here to help me remember this lesson.
Travel Well
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Possibly (ha) clear measured move thust out of triangle on Dax, fourth wave of the thrust itself may be a a-(tri-trap b)-c, otherwise it's still in progress.
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If it is a completed move, the fifth wave stayed inside EW cash limits at c8006 which would have made 3 the shortest wave, assuming we saw an extended w1, otherwise its just one for the pointless pictures gallery, Short with stop 8016 for now, whole thrust could still just be W1 of something unknowably larger of course.
Note to self: Fascinating compulsion to still see a picture, maybe have to seek medical help.
Ok, stopped out and a strong reminder to not see pictures before trades, everybody and their auntie were sellling so it had only one place to go - up.
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So, we haven't yet learned enough from the teddy-out-of-pram lesson day, but at least we avoided a meltdown baby-out-with-bathwater system demolition day. Just keep simplifying and don't be so damn eager to force trades - really, that's it. Must gain patience. patience, patience. I see much, I ignore more and selectively too, that is still the real problem. I need to let the market validate itself, not second guess that it is going to validate me, it doesn't give a toss.
ES appears to be holding up in extensions, looks like it currently needs under 85.50 in style to suggest the trend is turning and not just being held up for the coming end of month fund buying and July 4 celebration, otherwise it's currently looking for 1616 first if it can get past yesterday's high. Dax of course can turn earlier if it wants to, has rejected yesterday's high and lost the open so the door is now open if the weather shifts, otherwise it's going to be a slow couple of days.
Travel Well
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Simple lesson from last month - work on the practical psychology, sit one those damn trades and stop taking them off when they're on, threw away just too many points, have to lose the scalp-first mentality.
Watched TST's candlestick math webinar at the weekend and thought it was possibly one of the most useful I had seen, we'll see if we can get anything between the ears to change. Also watching LBR's has helped me get a lot more structural things clear.
Safe enough start to the new month, finished +30 from just a couple of trades today to make up for the poor end to last week. The latter seemed to tally closely with the desire to post analytical pictures first and trade second in an attempt to find larger core trades, but I now realise the balancing priority for me has to be to keep the trading mentality upfront with useful pictures in the background.
Travel Well
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planting"
