Release from pre-holiday stuckery on ES should eventually determine if Europe is basing for a rebound higher or just consolidating at lows before another leg lower. Chop city otherwise, satisfied with +19 Dax points for the early session.
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Hi @GFIs1, this is the picture I have in mind if higher is still an option, I am logging it here as I want to record the context that was visible to me and why, then I can see in the weeks and months ahead what can be used or thrown away more often in my longer term work. Dax is still a new animal for me so it is particularly relevant when there are conflicting wave patterns and I want to learn how they might interact with the Kumo charts, etcetera.
Given the state of the world of course I have no idea how up could be reasonable, only that the mystery of long and short cycles is always present. All to be ignored for actual trades of course!
Take the red pill or the blue pill, always the question... ES falling away from 1620 and under 1580 suggests the Kumo red arrow will really rock...., but then the blue 5 wave up has to be explained or shown to be a red herring (only my puzzle), otherwise we ought to be looking for ES above 1636 to confirm blue and open higher gaps and/or doors.
Travel Well
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Thanks for your insights!
Everything is possible - I am not making pressure on declining prices.
The facts out of Ichimoku are visible right now.
So we are on that downleg right now and we need to see where
the Bottoms are
GFIs1
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Last holiday picture, tidied up, added a simple Kumo, noticed a few other points. Kumo a la @GFIs1 was solid. Dax just bounced off a nested .786 at same time as @AnasParis mentioned CAC excess. Will find out soon enough if the rise from 6/22 was just a fast DZZ or X wave, in which case the acceleration under the lower trendline that I hadn't spotted before may well be a foretaste of what's to come downhill, otherwise it was a fakeout/flush and significant upside still left in the tank.
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Too hot for garden or trade today, it's painting interesting places though. Some will be looking for 1-2 and early left-side cycle translation, but we will just have to see what the doctor delivers in case it's twins instead.
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Built a new summerhouse in the garden yesterday, the neighbour says it's a fine erection. Need to install beer. Only one early trade for me yesterday, +15 points so only ticking over but that's also still working fine.
Travel Well
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Lots of Euro froth in the Dax. Start of a brave new world or still ending of an old one? There are fascinating patterns available for mega-bears and mega-bulls at the moment - surprising coming into the doldrums - so maybe its just an illusualone.
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Just 2 trades today for another slow but steady +15 in just an hour, should have been +25 but the old cut them too soon habit dies hard. Still a major psycho work in progress. I'm currently enjoying a more relaxed and analytical approach with reduced screen time forced by outdoor projects and great weather. Sticking with the 4% per trade now with 6-10 point stop combination. Bigger fish may well appear in the waiting pool someday, but a rough daily average of +15 or better for the next few years would do very nicely Mr Market, thank you.
Travel Well
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It's only a maybe picture as breadth on the DB is incredibly strong again today. There is possibly an even rotation signature in the delta suggesting distribution but otherwise it's a printing inspired parabolic vtolol and they're buying bagloads. Losing 8192 and 8176 might get bears furry again with a serious pattern to play with, otherwise I have to think that the summer doldrum antigrav is working fine and maybe even that much bigger K forces are at work. Cripes. Really needs ES 65 and 60 gone before downhill gets easier, but I might sneak a nibble or two in if the weather changes.
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Only two small trades for me -6, +14, still that's dinner sorted.
Dax has been dancing with the elves, sweet exact teasing close though....
Maybe next week we find out what some real intentions are.
There will be roller-coasters through the night, Gann cycles are equity positive until Q2 '16, that'll be a sight if it's right.
But coming astro effects are an eyeful of awful, surely that can't be lawful.
Monday beckons, weather's hot, summer's here, best to all.
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Time to get a few thoughts and frustrations out of the way.
Yesterday was a complete FOMO CHOP-ME day where I analysed well but then traded like a donkey, freezing on the one really ideal setup and then just just chasing my tail on tat stuff for the rest of the sessions, so damn frustrating.
Today I didn't over-analyse, absolutely eagle-eyed the charts and executed really well, made up all yesterday's losses and then some, but I still couldn't just sit on two massive trades that were staring and daring me to do nothing for my own benefit, so damn frustrating.
Anyway, feel better for saying that. Rant over.
Have decided to split usage of my two accounts, one will now be strictly limited to one trade per day with a 20 point stop, with or without a limit set the on trade depending on rough day type (i.e trend/chop assessment). Account platform will be forcibly closed when the trade is, so it's up to me to pick the prime setup, time of day and market, usually Dax, sometimes Dow or ES. Need to get some of Mr Cool Hand Luke's approach to rub off over here.
Main account will continue to use 10 point (Dax/Dow) stops on multiple trades as charts dictate but with master psycho goal also to limit finger clicks and sit longer once in a trade. This is the big issue for me, bar none. I can nail entries but I can't sit for toffee.
Travel Well
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..lead to some frustration. Today's Dax downmovement was with a steady sell exactly til 12:00.
From there 1/3 of the volume made it back and even higher as the morning entry.
These things are only to be seen on weak summer days where some big boys may screw all up.
Good trades!
GFIs1
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Thanks Maestro, good words, even more annoying that I saw it coming though! ES held an active extension at 1666 (where else...) and I saw the shift in the DB and took it but then scared myself out of it. Aaaargh! Biggest test of life this game. Guess that's why we love it.
Anyway ES taking 1575 might suggest a new attack on the highs and maybe >1685, otherwise losing 68 and 63 might suggest looking for a carnage entry. Dax will of course do its wild CL-type thing ( @josh is right on that one), I hadn't looked at it in that light before but it is a beast much as I love it.
Travel Well
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Interesting spot. Proboscibly still in v of C/3, but might be just WX in place at highs instead if it does lose the inside channel again. Tight short cash stop 8273 in case ES needing a gapfill could help it decide..
Thinking grind up or chop sideways for summer unless break from channel shown in previous chart starts to make a hefty difference. A 'y' might at least have a useful look at 8130s, unless we're still straight up in a 5 of something. Not even sure that Dax is meaningfully EW'able at all.... Might just stick with the crayons alone . Or even try and just trade. Thinking maybe once a week is enough for postcards. That's the trouble with thinking, we shouldn't do so much.
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Recording this to remind myself that technical analysis is also a psychological exercise. We draw lines to support our views whether we realise it or not and, I suspect, regardless of correct or incorrect or better or worse ways of doing it. Same chart as 2 posts previous, just with a different emphasis. Both or neither can be right/wrong, we have to remember it is only our imposition which then all too often becomes a bias driving expectation. I said a while ago I must learn to trade the reactions first then analyse and see what it might be second, still a work in progress. Dax future currently suggests the first one is 'better', ES holding up maybe favours the second - an open mind has to favour neither until something reactive happens.
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An occasional long term ponder while we're bored in the doldrums, I happen to think these are the 3 most important charts that will define our futures as homo-economicus:
Hold or Fold?
Deflation has this chart inverted.
The Battle Royal:
Note the aggressive hold of 1.30. Yet neither side can get a target hitting series going. Irresistible Force meets Immovable Object.
We are in new territory after what appears to be a successful retest. 60yr cycle would suggest 17nn and pullback, then looking at 1900 by 2016. An 'ordinary' bullish retest would still be ok at 15's but if this is a real breakout it should be the last time we see it for a long time and it should continue to move away rapidly. Otherwise it could well be a monster 'B' wave fakeout and Prechtorix finally gets his top 18 years late. Fair play - it might just end up being the biggest stopped clock in the history of the world.
I like Armstrong's assessment that 17 months was an ideal length for a panic cycle into the '09 low. I personally think we started new 60 year and 19 year cycles at that point and that the subsequent behaviour fits well.
The Unbelievably Great Unknown is that we have never been at this point in a cycle set with this amount of global debt in the monetary system coming into a 3 year period of astrological configurations that has only ever spelled doom.
Thinking the eventual resolutions will be anything but quiet and that it's still a good job we can go long and short in the same day .
Dax still painting pretty summer pictures. Not trading much with doldrums as expected and also just moved office location. Did do a test run to take a few points yesterday to check it still works. Now slimmed from 5 screens to 3 and the short term setup focus continues to get better. This one just for art, 8100 looks key for big north now, 7800 still for big south.
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First post-doldrums half-day back in the new office (37/7 Mbits/s, yay), Dax did as expected for the whole of the month. It's out and it's also now clear that excess analysis was hurting rather than helping my trading. Unplastering and rewiring seem to have helped more. Took 39 points out of it today, let's see how the rest of the year goes.
The old overtrade it syndrome kicked in big time today, all I can say is that in previous years it would have been an account destroyer, today it was saved by solid money and stop management so that 34 (wot!) trades only lost 13 points. Good trades were picking up 15-16 points and the obvious 'just sit on two instead' would have yielded about 75. Work in progress and I take some comfort from the apparent safety aspect. Well, maybe.
I continue to delete charts that I can establish have no benefit for making money but have been clung onto because they look pretty or seemed to have information content when in fact they didn't.
I continue to rearrange my screen layout to focus on the shorter term reaction and momentum (i.e. entry and exit) elements while moving the 'pattern' and 'structure' elements off to the sides, the opposite of my default setup. I have realised that not just EW but really all TA is just a rear-view mirror and to believe otherwise introduces so much bias that I find hard to get away from.
I need to let time play out, not just for trades that I am in but for trades that I am waiting for. This is definitely my biggest remaining gotcha. Apart from all the others.
My stop management is becoming totally defined and pinned down, always -10 points (Dax), moved to -5 or -2 if the trade moves away in my favour - wrong should still always be felt - if only slightly. I am not a swing trader so I will not trail stops, an exit should occur at a wanted target or when an inverse entry shows up in style.
An unexpected benefit of this has been that my (usually dreadful) R/R has started to improve significantly, moving from less than one up toward 2.5 and even 3 to 1.
Anyway we're still really in part-time autumn trading mode but interesting stuff is happening between the ears.
Travel Well
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Ended up being a mouse practice day, ho, hum. Finished +11 points so green but from a ridiculous number of trades, despite having a couple of eyeballed prime setups I took the junk instead. Missing ingredient remains the coolth between the ears. One day.
Building and moving stuff next couple of days so that might be it for the week.
Today finished +21 points from half yesterday's number of trades, including a naughty 2X stop and 5 points unusual slippage, so I'm counting that as 4X better in 24 hours.
So total +57 for the first 3 day week of the new post-doldrums season, should feel good but it doesn't because:
1) Over-trading and not being careful with trade selection.
2) Not holding trades, leaving 5X more on the table.
3) Twitching to get in as well as out.
4) I don't yet follow any of the the rules that I set this journal up with, 17 might be half of 34 but it's not 5.
5) Too easily scared out of good trades or panicked into chasing missed ones.
But it feels better than it did in years gone by because:
1) I'm sticking to the 10 point stop plan. Mostly, hmmm.
2) I'm slowly learning to trade with trends and not fight them all the while.
3) There is at least a semblance of feeling that I might just be able to do this after all, with supporting numbers.
4) I was tempted to fund a second account today and try a different approach, but I didn't - for me that is good.
5) My system is actually fine, I am now in the market for massive trading psychology improvements needed.
I may experiment with using a wider stop and setting limit exits next week to see if I can begin to mechanically induce more sitting and/or better trade selection. Having progressed with 'a trade is a trade is a trade' I might start to make some headway with 'doing nothing until something happens' and maybe even 'don't be a scaredy cat, that's what your stop is for'. We'll see, have a great weekend and good trades one and all.
Cheers.
Travel Well
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Poor session, did nothing that I intended, finished -29 points, way too many trades again, man do I need a hammer round the head. Deleted 2 more charts that were helping me talk myself into crazy trigger pulls, lets see what tomorrow brings, discipline someday, I wish.
Realised that trading results are simply the difference between what we can do and what we actually do.
With that now in full focus a ruthless cull has left me with just 5 charts for acting on out of scores, if not hundreds, last year. Have basically thrown out 90% of redundant information and pretty things and sticking with the 3 screens instead of 5. I have been forced to conclude after all this time that looking for any type of wave patterns/cycles or targets before price action and reaction has suggested a trade is usually, if not always, a mistake.
Looking to work hard on the eternal sitting problem, before and during trades, I'm not short of great entries but I am most definitely short of patience and the strength of character and self-belief to accept that what my eyes tell me is more than good enough.
Cleared out the trading platforms as well, both accounts will only trade Dax, no more Dow or ES clutter and with a much simpler layout stored for each.
Long and medium term weather charts on ES/Euro etc kept in background/offline workspaces.
If, and it's a big IF, I can get to a point where the rules also stick then I might see some progress. Job restarts now.
Travel Well
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Well maybe not so weak, stronger weekly finish in terms of getting to locate the enemy, self of course. Even on Friday after the restart it only took two hours before I fiddled 2 Euro charts back in, laughs sheepishly.....
BUT, I have a layout that is now so much more relaxing on the eyes, and I have printed out the MD T-in-the-Z summary kindly posted by @Sparticus to eat whole as I realise that fear controls my every action, damn it, so we have a plan, and the plan is to stick to the plan, one day.
Had I stuck to the plan Friday would have been a +90 (Euro and Dax) day, instead of a -10 day, situation normal, am going to watch FT's latest webinar and reconsider my casual approach to logging trades as that must be reflecting my poor attitude - I can do this but I don't take it seriously enough. I may start seperate Euro and Dax threads to somehow force myself to take a couple of trades instead of a dumb bucketful and use this Five a Day as 5 hours a day of general trading and psychology wrap up...
Away from self so far the markets have reflected the action I expected a few months ago if new Gann cycles were currently dominating to the upside, the Dax hold at 8100 that I looked for was the tell and so far we are still behaving as if in a 3rd or 5th wave, doesn't matter really, things will change when they do, rallies usually end on good news not bad.
Best for the weekend to one and all.
Travel Well
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That system FT71 is using to monitor his client's trades is really great. It is so powerful it seems to be even able to look at my trades and I'm an IB customer.
:-)
p
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Chop day in the markets, not much on offer without care, especially with errands and odd-jobs in the way as well. Still tried to manufacture a few trades out of it and finished -6 for the pleasure. Have to learn how to handle the boredom factor and the importance of NOT-trading, especially when it is so obvious. Spent a couple of hours revisiting old workspaces as if somehow they would be showing hidden answers, ha, ha, what a battle it is to keep it between the ears. Cleared back out, looking to stick to the Dax alone and not play Euro-fire at the same time for now, whether I can see its routes or not.
Learned a lot from FT's webinar and the Douglas summary, going to have to establish a routine for reinforcing it continually, so easy for the old habits to keep coming to the front, particularly on days when Mr M is giving nothing away for anyone. Somehow I have made the stop sizing and money management aspects of trading stick, that is what is saving the accounts but we're treading water until I can kill the over-trading and get with a wholesome trade selection plan.
edit: no change this morning, not even worth a new post, managed to hit the button 10 times, it's like a different person sits down when the lights are on from the one that thinks things through when it's dark. Ended -21, the only 2 sensible trades would have yielded +54 instead. Have got to force myself into rules first mode with a formal time and number mechanism soon.
Reached a stage where I know I have to do this on my own or stop. Will be my last post here for a while, I intend to use the last 3 months of this year as a decision time. Either I am trading sensibly by the end of the year and will renew my eSignal service or I will know it is beyond my emotional/mental makeup to do this and will call it quits for good and repair to some other form of life and stop kidding myself.
Travel Well
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Appreciated your inputs always.
The sabbatical you are wanting to take is a good decision.
Overlooking a full year in trading - there are quarters with not much results. One quarter might be pushing things
and normally one quarter during the year is a loss.
Looking back to the summer quarter here - which is about to finish now - this was a no-go because of low volumes
and of moves over night.
So I am maybe taking a trading pause next year from July to September... - just my thoughts.
Have a great time!
GFIs1
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Hi @GFIs1, Thanks for the support - greatly appreciated. I also took time off over the summer as in previous years, also needed for building works in my case as well as the market doldrums always worth avoiding. My decision now is really more to focus on making myself trade in a sensible and more attentive manner.
As an example, futures.io (formerly BMT) is wonderful but I have found it has become an addiction for me, such that I feel compelled to read every post on the site every day and I do this instead of watching and waiting for great setups. Then, when I am angry at myself for missing great setups I punish myself by taking stupid ones...duh.
Secondly I have realised that making rules is pointless unless they mean something, until they do I could write a thousand journals and I won't alter a bit. Fortunately after reading the Power of Habit book and a few chapters of De Bono something snapped last week and I knew that I could be different.
Today was better so I may try and keep some level of contact in here and even post something with numbers again when I get the number of trades below 5..., that at least will tell me that I am regaining control over my own actions, but I know I need at least 3 months to prove just that.
Best Wishes to you!
Travel Well
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I have decided to keep a weekly public update, something to do with the crisis battle of trying to make myself accountable to myself one day.
Last 3 days of the week were the only trading days, first 2 positive, last negative enough to wipe out the first two. Managed to control the futures.io (formerly BMT) addiction but catching up selectively today, thanks to all for such great posts in so many places.
Most absurd thing is still when I get to the end of a day and look back in the trading account and see 12, 20 and 23 trades of which I am barely conscious - how did they get there??? Who did it??? What did it???
Only the now ingrained stop and money management is preventing a nuclear event, but how come that has gone into the lump of wet fat so well but the ability to wait or sit remains elusive?
Fell into the old trap of reviewing charts and adding, ha, ha, ha. All back out by end of Friday, Euro charts also dropped, I am not a Euro trader, I don't *need* to see it. Fell into the old trap of looking at larger timeframe charts and creating or inventing imaginary wave patterns and thus biasing trades, past the trash time for that, well as I know them all.
Have a new sticker on the bottom of the monitor TPTPR:
TIME - e.g. of day, duration of a correction, etc
PLACE - fib level, hwb, gap, OR, hod, lod, sup/res, etc
TREND - bull/bear/chop? ema/sma/channel
PATTERN - many, but more than an ABC not needed for a kick-off
REACTION - e.g breadth, volume, reversal bar/spike
Then Take The Trade
The rest has to be automatic anyway, stops, limits, etc and I know that works now, I just need to get on and use the system. I know many would put PROFILE at the front of that list, I understand that but don't relate to it so well. Could also use TYPE e.g.scalp or swing but I choose to keep it simpler for now.
Next week I will only have one workspace open - that is the mission should I choose to accept it.
Travel Well
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And I will take 5 or less trades a day. 30 minute highlight boundaries will now forcibly dictate a minimum period for when a new trade is available for consideration - I HAVE to make this stick. I have put the Mordaunt-Short's back on the office shelves, the Cranberries are playing right now, Dolores is my favourite wailer ever, we will have music next week.
So many statistics are created for measuring profitability but for me that seems like putting the cart before the horse - I need to measure my trading behaviour first. Half or even three quarters of my days being positive means little if I'm out of control.
The daily SMA(3) of the number of trades I take finally has a negative slope, that is progress, and if I take no more trades today its value will only be twice what I set out for it to be in the first rules of this journal, that's a better indication of the work still to do.
For next week (and all weeks if it looks like it works) my new daily measure of behavioural sensibility (SMB) will be that the square of my number of trades taken has to remain less than half the modulo sum of points gained and lost. I am currently miles away from meeting that goal but think it will be a painfully accurate measure of how I really behave as a trader and a great target if I am to get past this decider quarter.
Examples:
3 straight losers -10, -10, -10 SMB = (3 X 3) < (10+10+10)/2 or 9 < 15 so I behaved ok but traded lousily
5 winners, 2 losers, +4, +8, -10, +21, +7, -10, +33 SMB = (7 X 7) < (4+8+10+21+7+10+33) / 2 or 49 > 46.5 so net +63 seems like a great positive trading day but underneath the measure suggests behaviour is only borderline sensible (in this case taking small winners)
2 winners, 1 loser -10, +17, +29 SMB = (3 X 3) < (10+17+29) /2 or 9 < 28 so I behaved remarkably well and with net +36 points also had a good positive trading day
OR yesterday, 7 winners, 5 losers, no point showing the maths as 144 is not less than 75 (stupid small wins and scared small losses), now you see what I mean - the behavioural truth of SMB is painful and is helping me to see the difference between having a positive trading day and also behaving like a good trader, let alone a great one.
Work in progress, have a great weekend.
Travel Well
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Good start to the week with 3 positive days, 3 winners from 5 trades, 7 from 11 and 5 from 7 but only a handful of points each day, so a good hit rate but failing my SMB measure by miles as my number of trades sticking at 5 or above is way too many unless I can really start to sit on a few. Man do I ever struggle with that one.
I sooooo need to get beyond this scared scalping mentality, on the other hand I am feeling more comfortable with my setups and approach and the market situation is to say the least tough with the political waters, so I'll hold the birching for now.
Development wise I've chucked out some more cherished pretty stuff, looks better feels better runs better and by golly it better be better.
Travel Well
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There is ONE proven trading behaviour (read on several threads here) that could PREVENT from
following every trade as long til' the BRAIN-trigger says "to get OUT" // or scalping on every turning point:
1) If the setup after trading plan is ok - ENTER
2) SET the stop
3) SET the target price or a target time
4) SHUT DOWN the computer!
Come back really later and check the result.
You will be amazed :-)
Good trades!
GFIs1
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Something similar to this has helped me immensely. I just minimize all trade trade related programs (platform, charting) once I've entered the trade and don't touch them again until my first target or stop has been hit and sounds an alarm. Just sit back and catch up on webinars or read a trading book in the mean time. After the first few times of doing this and getting used to it, it has become very pleasurable to trade, and I get a lot of trade studying (or TV watching) done instead of frayed nerves and wasted time staring at the chart.
(got a trade on right now)
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Hi @GFIs1, I guess I'm too much of an addict by miles to actually shutdown the computer (I know you're right though, darn it) but maybe I'll start slowly by taking a long*ish* walk around the block!
At least I am growing to love the Dax (yes, weird, I know... gulp) she gives so many setups and opportunities and with a weather eye on the ES at same time it gives me everything I need and more, so then just the massive work between the ears continues...
Thanks a bunch to you and @lifeguardsteve88 I really appreciate the advice and support.
Travel Well
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I make extensive use of forward looking Fibonacci (50, 61.8, -23.6) but all too often forget the power of reverse swings (127.2) in helping to determine possible locations of unexpected target failures or delays, two consecutive classics on the daily should have had the red flags waving ages ago, yeah, right, I know, bit late now.
Travel Well
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Today I decided to fund my backup account so that I could start taking some slower swing type overnight or multi-day trades with the idea of limiting my persistent trade interference following ideas from previous posts.
As we know my great strength is that I see and really feel every wiggle in a chart and my great weakness is that I see and really feel every wiggle in a chart when I'm in a trade. Darn it.
Anyways...., what actually happened was that I discovered they have introduced a new interface called Sprint Markets, scary music plays now...., like binary options but sweeter and simpler, just a stake, an above or below strike price, a time e.g. 2, 5 or 20 minutes from hitting the go button and a payout if you're lucky.
The interface makes it look like the R/R is 1:1.81, not great but not bad either, but as with many systems the returned stake is included in the payout, so the R/R is really only 1:0.81 i.e. equivalent to a 20 point stop and a 16.2 point target, so really a typically less than ideal scalping setup.
Laughs sheepishly now, what happened was I smashed it out of the park, 9 winners out of 10 two minute Dax trades for an equivalent +126 point total, my best day for a long time and a strange day indeed.
I'm not expecting such a high hit rate to be consistently deliverable but after a lot of knock down days it was a hell of a confidence booster for once. After all if I have an edge which is usually also a weakness then I better exploit it while I continue to strive to master the larger R/R styles as well.
I still do fully intend to (*must*) go the slower swing route as well, as new toys do have a habit of blowing up in our faces, but it just goes to show you can teach an old dog new tricks and there's definitely more than one way of skinning a market.
Travel Well
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I can't even claim that, in my usual inimitable style half of them were counter-trend shorts, on a rocket ship day, deary me. It will be interesting to see how we go, I love the feel of the interface and its action, just need to make sure I keep missing the TILT pedal...
I may try and segregate an active trade in the main account a la @GFIs1 and just have a certain period of the day when I attack the beauty with this new beasty.
Cheers, have a Lucozade on me.
Travel Well
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I think bulls are vulnerable unless they take out 94 before losing 68, failing up here in the hwb zone from the top would be undesirable. Interesting day, will see in the next few days if the rocket ship was a fifth wave kick-off or a bear correction rocket spiker.
A losing final day of the week and a typical Friday, stuck in a consolidation and obviously (hindsight, ha) best avoided really.
Only 3 trades in the main account, -16, +16, -10, so net -10. Poor trading but SMB at 9 < 42 was better than typical.
And a multitude in the new Sprint sandpit account, played and experimented a lot, ended down -20 so a poor day there but kept 106 from yesterday to make it a good week, and it's great for putting more focus on the importance of time.
Lessons to learn are the usual - stop fighting the trend(s), be more selective with trades, the usual chestnuts, can I crack them?
Bulls stayed strong taking out 94 and defeating the potential short hwb from highs, extensions broke out, might be hitting a target now but can of course blow through again, first signs of weakness only if 94 now lost and a short pullback holds, but bulls will still have a legitimate long pullback currently sitting at 1670, depending on where the current advance halts. Swing shorts still have no setups unless the trend fails first.
With all the political shenanigans so far this week I have mainly focussed on getting familiar with the Sprint Markets platform and doing a little software development and tidying, hopefully more orderly market action resumes shortly, well, maybe.
In the main account I should have made better use of my longer-term take on things as it was pretty close, but weirdly I still don't yet really understand myself in that arena.
If I can do this:
Why can't I just put the trade on? Even just once or twice a month would be good, what a wimp..
In any case I have learned again the simple difference - when I am out of control and over-trading I am utterly devastating (Monday 7 wins, 15 losers) and when I am in the zone I am utterly devastating (Tuesday 6 winners from 7 trades, today 4 winners from just the magic Five trades).
Sandpit account now sits at +28% but clearly the swings are unsustainable until control is present everyday and position size gets dropped from 10%->5%->2%. Aggressive exploration does focus the attention though, I always feel it is asking the 'Why do we make it so hard' question, when under the right conditions it clearly isn't.
So the lifetime of work between the ears continues, at least I am happy with my short-term edges and still enjoying the challenge of finding the really magic salt that would eliminate the TILT days, but then I guess there's a lot of us trying to do that.
I'm cooking dinner tonight so done trading for now, good day, if a little jammy in places.
Main account, finally did as advised by @GFIs1, stuck a trade in it and walked away to get the food, came back to find +41T in it so closed it and smiled. Had one earlier loser for -12T so net +29T in here.
Sprint sandpit had the usual rollercoaster headwaves with 16 winners and 12 losers for a net equivalent of +40T, not complaining but runs of 6 and 4 winners and 6 losers suggest huge differences between good and bad mind zones. Thinking I need to open/close the shop for an hour at a time on this one. Early days still here though, love the platform despite low R/R suits my edge when I keep myself in check, basically need 5:4 win/loss ratio or better to be breakeven in a session.
Long term view I had a little play this morning and this is where and why I think we are here:
3 valid extension support areas each traded that 1550 area and have unfilled targets in the 1740's as yet. Thing is I think that could be a Gannland definer, it will put a top in OR on the 4th go at all time new highs it will gap/blast through and just fly north into 2014, we shall see ..
Pullbacks down to 1550 still valid, much longer term pullback at 1200's also valid but of no interest unless we get a weekly trend failure.
Imho.
Travel Well
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Dax was choppy but I had a good steady session and felt in control, even though I got off to a dumb rocky start with 3 straight losers. I finished with a total of 7 winners and just 4 losers for a net equivalent of +68T in the Sprint account, no trades in the main account. Might restart this afternoon, otherwise let's see if the progress continues through next week. My self-imposed 3 month evaluation has taken an unexpected turn for sure. Funny thing life.
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It's not so many years since a certain Elliott outfit declared that NASDAQ would never even get past its 38.2%, let alone get up here, a historic day indeed. For now the trend is up in extensions until it stops, Gann cycles suggest likely into 2015 but significant swings available and a full pullback always possible if it wants it.
Has been in a sideways consolidation for 6 months now, gamblers only near the upper trendline, seriously hairy only if the rising lower channel line gets broken and successfully re-tested, trend is up until it isn't. Expanding wedges have a nasty habit of breaking either way, useful that, not.
By my standards a remarkable week for both results and behaviour (well, recovery of stupids anyway), I took just one more trade this afternoon for +16T, so the Sprint account has gained a total of +252T since opening last week and is now definitely part of my trading arsenal. I don't think I've ever managed that in the main account before, certainly not for a long while. Its operation is forcing me to look at price action in wholly new and more fascinating ways than ever, integrating time and price into one trading space.
I've had a tough long slog to get to a break like this and just like life we have to enjoy it when we've got it. In parallel I am walking longer routes between office and home, drinking less caffeine after lunch and less or even no alcohol in the evenings to improve sleep cycles. Although one day I still hope to get back to our cherished software development 80's working lifestyle and just drink at lunchtimes ...
Have a great weekend.
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3mg of melatonin is good for your health (youth) - see book "melatonin miracle -
as well as your sleep (dark cherry juice is supposed to be a good sleep aid as well)
I take melatonin each evening before bed.
Happy weekend.
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peace, love and joy to you
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Interesting, I'll check that out thanks, I use 100mg of Serotonin 5HTTP with a mouthful of carbs for sleep cycle - I'm a nightmare otherwise, having also to take GABA producers Depakote (anti-epileptic but bipolar lifesaver for me) and Theanine (green tea type GABA source, since EU banned source GABA). Missus' snoring is a much worse problem though, laughs sheepishly in case she hears....
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great to see you accumulating BPI points...
For the bird's game I am making the screenlight brighter - the short flash image will then longer be hold in the eye..
GFIs1
.. I like the "Disillusion" game :-)
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Well, at 57yrs I start today (after 24 games) with a miserable BPI of 544. 10 years ago I had a 155 IQ so I guess I have long since forgotten where I left it! Looking forward to progress I like the ideas of using it as part of a daily routine and will report in the main LUMOSITY thread if anything useful happens...
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No worries, I'm right behind you regarding age and BPI.
And in case of any changes or even progress I will report in the main Lumosity thread as well...
"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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I haven't heard of the 100mg of Serotonin 5HTTP.
I used to take GABA when I was body building - never heard of a problem with it (so I'll have to read up on the EU ban).
I'm sure snoring can be a big deal. I have heard that sleeping on one's side and certain pillows can help.
The trick might be to go to bed/sleep 1/2 hour before her.
I do know that people can hear in their sleep so if you just say "stop snoring" when she is sleeping she may well do just that.
For a few years I use to listen to a hypnosis tape to help me sleep. Of course in your sleeping situation you would need headphones unless your wife doesn't mind it. The message could be to sleep deeply and soundly without snoring -hah, hah.
If you can sleep wearing headphones then the noise cancellation type would be a good bet!
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peace, love and joy to you
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Just the one Sprint trade today for +16T. Might restart this evening. With ES/Dax still coiling, I'm happy to wait for better movement, patience is a new experience for me anyway.
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Came in after dinner feeling slick (now laughs until wets self uncontrollably) and kicked off with 2 Dow Sprint winners, got COMPLACENT and chucked 4 straight no excuses just plain dumb losers out for the birds, so I had to work my socks off to find a further 4 winners to get back ahead. Could of, should of, probably ought to have, left it alone but was sufficiently annoyed with self to feel the need, luckily refocused in the process. With the inverse R:R on Sprints 6:4 only gets me +16T, the same as one careful trade did this morning. Duh.
It is fascinating how a lack of action leads to the urge to push, always a mistake and still one of the hundreds of lessons in progress. The edge is strong (Sprint a/c is +80%) but the psyche is still weak (I now feel like a tosser). Although I was rested and looking forward to the evening session I am now fatigued by my own failure to let go of the earlier droll inaction on the Dax.
Patience boy, patience - tomorrow beckons - and hopefully we all have many more tomorrows.
p.s. Just noticed my prior post, guess the patience experience thingy didn't last real well then.
Funded 10 Oct, total 138 trades, 82 winners, 56 losers, 59% win rate, inverse -20:+16.2 ticks scalping risk/reward ratio, Sprint account is now +104%, so doubled it in 12 days with an aggressive 10% stake, now down to 5%. In choppy conditions it allows me to trade time more than price, it will be interesting to see if it remains as useful when more normal market movement is resumed, but that's where I still need to master the main account.
Stuck in the gap and the OR and misbehaving near the pivot but there really just because I'm happy and it's pretty.
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Got the expected blow-off rip, unfortunately bulls appear to have not traded much in the way of a valid setup so have left themselves vulnerable, couple of intraday short series holding for now but early days in this decider area yet, still plenty of supports below if the series break.
Took just 3 more winning Sprints (1 Dax, 2 Dow) for +48T, a sweet day, got to take 'em when we get 'em.
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"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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Remains to be seen over the next few weeks and months if it's leading (large retrace likely), terminal (bulls are screwed) or not actually one (nothing can help the bears).
While ES is stuck in the 1730-1750 zone Dax is behaving like a walrus in sludge, so here's my current long term view of the Euro.
Still powering (think Benny riding Gann bicycle) North off the monthly decade hwb, 1.37 looks fairly important for the short-term trend, interesting target would just break the weekly resistance, although that's been largely ignored so far anyway. Remains to be seen if the monthly falls so easily if we do get North of 1.41. Losing 1.30ish might suggest the deflationistas are champing at the bit again.
a) When trading I can still be an idiot at the drop of a hat, repeated same wrongness trigger pulls in particular
b) Still not being selective enough with trades, over-trading as usual
c) I really don't need to open up the Dow/Nyse workspace and play gunslinger just because the Dax was slow
d) Why do I resist taking good setups in favour of counter-trend work??
Dax was still not moving sensibly enough to warrant getting the main account out, maybe a couple of 30 pointers to be had but hard graft to get them, I didn't. Looking forward to more mainstream action sometime.
In the Sprint account I had 10 winners, 8 losers and unbelievably 1 draw (I didn't know it did that, an exact hit of the strike price after time expiry results in loss of a half stake, i.e. -10T as opposed to -20T or +16.2T.) Net result with the inverse R:R I ended off -8T having been up +25T, no great shakes but a huge reminder yet again that PSYCHE is the total maker or breaker.
Ridiculously the market is behaving exactly as I expected in this region - so why don't I?? Anyway, nobody died, it's part of the job that I am still so near to, yet still so far from.
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Euro reached its weekly resistance as expected, currently holding extension support while it decides whether to honour it or hit target:
Could get more push up into the monthly or a significant retrace in either case.
And now the lovely Dax (for some reason Ninja has dropped the title bar in the image save).
Soon to die, with a last gasp terminal and a massive deflationary spiral of the over-financialised debt-ridden Western empires? :
Or soon to fly, if the Gann cycle holds up until 2015 and Armstrong's Private Wave continues apace? :
Perception is all, they are the same charts. Government and the public won't have a clue what happened in either case. Oh, come to think of it, neither will I.
Thinking maybe once a week is enough for postcards. That's the trouble with thinking, we shouldn't do so much.
with 16 winners and 12 losers for a net equivalent of +40T, not complaining but runs of 6 and 4 winners and 6 losers suggest huge differences between good and bad mind zones. Thinking I need to open/close the shop for an hour at a time on this one. Early days still here though, love the platform despite low R/R suits my edge when I keep myself in check, basically need 5:4 
