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Five A Day
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Five A Day

  #121 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Choppy markets

..lead to some frustration. Today's Dax downmovement was with a steady sell exactly til 12:00.
From there 1/3 of the volume made it back and even higher as the morning entry.
These things are only to be seen on weak summer days where some big boys may screw all up.

Good trades!
GFIs1

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  #122 (permalink)
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Thanks Maestro, good words, even more annoying that I saw it coming though! ES held an active extension at 1666 (where else...) and I saw the shift in the DB and took it but then scared myself out of it. Aaaargh! Biggest test of life this game. Guess that's why we love it.

Anyway ES taking 1575 might suggest a new attack on the highs and maybe >1685, otherwise losing 68 and 63 might suggest looking for a carnage entry. Dax will of course do its wild CL-type thing ( @josh is right on that one), I hadn't looked at it in that light before but it is a beast much as I love it.

Travel Well
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  #123 (permalink)
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Interesting spot. Proboscibly still in v of C/3, but might be just WX in place at highs instead if it does lose the inside channel again. Tight short cash stop 8273 in case ES needing a gapfill could help it decide..

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  #124 (permalink)
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Thinking grind up or chop sideways for summer unless break from channel shown in previous chart starts to make a hefty difference. A 'y' might at least have a useful look at 8130s, unless we're still straight up in a 5 of something. Not even sure that Dax is meaningfully EW'able at all.... Might just stick with the crayons alone . Or even try and just trade. Thinking maybe once a week is enough for postcards. That's the trouble with thinking, we shouldn't do so much.

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  #125 (permalink)
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Recording this to remind myself that technical analysis is also a psychological exercise. We draw lines to support our views whether we realise it or not and, I suspect, regardless of correct or incorrect or better or worse ways of doing it. Same chart as 2 posts previous, just with a different emphasis. Both or neither can be right/wrong, we have to remember it is only our imposition which then all too often becomes a bias driving expectation. I said a while ago I must learn to trade the reactions first then analyse and see what it might be second, still a work in progress. Dax future currently suggests the first one is 'better', ES holding up maybe favours the second - an open mind has to favour neither until something reactive happens.

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Last edited by ratfink; July 18th, 2013 at 04:42 AM. Reason: s
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  #126 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
..lead to some frustration. Today's Dax downmovement was with a steady sell exactly til 12:00.
From there 1/3 of the volume made it back and even higher as the morning entry.
These things are only to be seen on weak summer days where some big boys may screw all up.

Good trades!
GFIs1

Yes, good summary. You could work for CNBC

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  #127 (permalink)
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Views From the Ratcave

An occasional long term ponder while we're bored in the doldrums, I happen to think these are the 3 most important charts that will define our futures as homo-economicus:

Hold or Fold?

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Deflation has this chart inverted.

The Battle Royal:

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Note the aggressive hold of 1.30. Yet neither side can get a target hitting series going. Irresistible Force meets Immovable Object.

To Gann or not to Gann?

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We are in new territory after what appears to be a successful retest. 60yr cycle would suggest 17nn and pullback, then looking at 1900 by 2016. An 'ordinary' bullish retest would still be ok at 15's but if this is a real breakout it should be the last time we see it for a long time and it should continue to move away rapidly. Otherwise it could well be a monster 'B' wave fakeout and Prechtorix finally gets his top 18 years late. Fair play - it might just end up being the biggest stopped clock in the history of the world.

I like Armstrong's assessment that 17 months was an ideal length for a panic cycle into the '09 low. I personally think we started new 60 year and 19 year cycles at that point and that the subsequent behaviour fits well.

The Unbelievably Great Unknown is that we have never been at this point in a cycle set with this amount of global debt in the monetary system coming into a 3 year period of astrological configurations that has only ever spelled doom.

Thinking the eventual resolutions will be anything but quiet and that it's still a good job we can go long and short in the same day .

Travel Well
 
  #128 (permalink)
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Dax still painting pretty summer pictures. Not trading much with doldrums as expected and also just moved office location. Did do a test run to take a few points yesterday to check it still works. Now slimmed from 5 screens to 3 and the short term setup focus continues to get better. This one just for art, 8100 looks key for big north now, 7800 still for big south.

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  #129 (permalink)
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First post-doldrums half-day back in the new office (37/7 Mbits/s, yay), Dax did as expected for the whole of the month. It's out and it's also now clear that excess analysis was hurting rather than helping my trading. Unplastering and rewiring seem to have helped more. Took 39 points out of it today, let's see how the rest of the year goes.

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  #130 (permalink)
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The old overtrade it syndrome kicked in big time today, all I can say is that in previous years it would have been an account destroyer, today it was saved by solid money and stop management so that 34 (wot!) trades only lost 13 points. Good trades were picking up 15-16 points and the obvious 'just sit on two instead' would have yielded about 75. Work in progress and I take some comfort from the apparent safety aspect. Well, maybe.

Still need that massive 'Sit Patiently' button.

Travel Well

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