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Five A Day
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Five A Day

  #91 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
...tomorrow beckons.

short of course - as always

good trades
GFIs1

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  #92 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
... no change in the last hour, not much point messing around until its all decided...

No change in 14 hours.

Lose 72 and setup drop c1540 or break 92 and setup squeegeee ->1620 or find heathier long pullback if we haven't yet gone full hairy. In any detection case most people miss the motives, but sometimes heuristic PaintBox just captures the manual battle more prettily.

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  #93 (permalink)
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Hello Ratfink

I just discovered your forum.


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See you!

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  #94 (permalink)
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More interesting now, losing 91 might suggest test of 70-75 if internals fade from here.

edit: No weakening at all, 91 got poked under and that was it, just grind higher rest of day.

Lost focus, rabbit in headlights took over, need to get back to trading first, analysis second.

Travel Well

Last edited by ratfink; June 26th, 2013 at 05:53 PM.
 
  #95 (permalink)
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Yesterday was a major teddy-out-of-the-pram day for me, lost a bucket of points. It has now passed and I can learn from it.

When I create alternative scenarios based on analysis it actually locks views into my head and stops me from really accepting what my system is telling me about intraday conditions. I simply switch on the 'ignore the evidence' filter. I have come to realise (for me at least) the idea that holding alternates keeps us open minded is a fallacy.

It is just another tricky form of the 'we understood that chart well, so we can understand them all' trap that is so true and has been written about by many - I need to understand that a chart can most definitely be not understandable for the simple reason that it is still developing. Get used to it - I need to see that certain conditions are right for each and every trade and only then look for the warm and glowing overview that might fit, not the other way around. For others it might just be a priority ordering issue but I now know what I personally have to do to stay focussed on the trades rather than the pictures.

As a deliberate exercise this morning I forced myself to focus on the here and now right inside just a few of the charts and signals and ignore all else, distractions, big pictures, this versus that, etcetera. Guess what, it works and makes better use of the adrenaline, made +34 back in one hour. I know some would say just one chart would be even better but I can't do that - I still need a view of the world - even if it's one I constantly need to hold at arm's length.

I write this here to help me remember this lesson.

Travel Well
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  #96 (permalink)
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Possibly (ha) clear measured move thust out of triangle on Dax, fourth wave of the thrust itself may be a a-(tri-trap b)-c, otherwise it's still in progress.

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Last edited by ratfink; June 27th, 2013 at 10:38 AM. Reason: '
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  #97 (permalink)
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If it is a completed move, the fifth wave stayed inside EW cash limits at c8006 which would have made 3 the shortest wave, assuming we saw an extended w1, otherwise its just one for the pointless pictures gallery, Short with stop 8016 for now, whole thrust could still just be W1 of something unknowably larger of course.

Note to self: Fascinating compulsion to still see a picture, maybe have to seek medical help.

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Ok, stopped out and a strong reminder to not see pictures before trades, everybody and their auntie were sellling so it had only one place to go - up.


Last edited by ratfink; June 27th, 2013 at 11:32 AM. Reason: stopped
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  #98 (permalink)
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So, we haven't yet learned enough from the teddy-out-of-pram lesson day, but at least we avoided a meltdown baby-out-with-bathwater system demolition day. Just keep simplifying and don't be so damn eager to force trades - really, that's it. Must gain patience. patience, patience. I see much, I ignore more and selectively too, that is still the real problem. I need to let the market validate itself, not second guess that it is going to validate me, it doesn't give a toss.

ES appears to be holding up in extensions, looks like it currently needs under 85.50 in style to suggest the trend is turning and not just being held up for the coming end of month fund buying and July 4 celebration, otherwise it's currently looking for 1616 first if it can get past yesterday's high. Dax of course can turn earlier if it wants to, has rejected yesterday's high and lost the open so the door is now open if the weather shifts, otherwise it's going to be a slow couple of days.

Travel Well

Last edited by ratfink; June 28th, 2013 at 05:54 AM. Reason: '
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  #99 (permalink)
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Hello,

ES: my latest daily chart.

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Have a nice weekend!

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  #100 (permalink)
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Simple lesson from last month - work on the practical psychology, sit one those damn trades and stop taking them off when they're on, threw away just too many points, have to lose the scalp-first mentality.

Watched TST's candlestick math webinar at the weekend and thought it was possibly one of the most useful I had seen, we'll see if we can get anything between the ears to change. Also watching LBR's has helped me get a lot more structural things clear.

Safe enough start to the new month, finished +30 from just a couple of trades today to make up for the poor end to last week. The latter seemed to tally closely with the desire to post analytical pictures first and trade second in an attempt to find larger core trades, but I now realise the balancing priority for me has to be to keep the trading mentality upfront with useful pictures in the background.

Travel Well
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