In this journal I'll post ideas on basic concepts for new traders as the come to mind in my trading and review of charts.
The idea is to have a starting point for new traders within the sea of information much of which is so overly complex that it is of liitle use to someone starting out.
Anyone is welcome to post here and all questions are welcome.
Don't worry if you are using the wrong word - I'm sure I'll get the idea.
Including a chart or a video clip is a good idea.
For example you might make a trade on your simulator (aka "sim" or paper-trade account) and wonder why it went wrong. I'm sure someone will have an answer.
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peace, love and joy to you
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One of the things new traders wonder about is how other traders come up with targets.
One commonly used way is retracements and extensions. You might see someone say "the fib is 55" short for the fibbonaci retracement level (if they don't specify they probably mean the 0.618 level) is 1555 for the ES.
(I'm going to call the support and extension levels "fibs" for short)
Here is a little video showing retracements applied to an ES chart for Friday 19 April 2013.
Notice that in this video I use 5/8 or 0.625 versus the default level of 0.618. Don't worry about that, just experiment with using them.
In the next two videos I show how to find the start and end points for your anchoring of the "fib levels", that is how do I know which top and bottom to anchor the lines on.
Of course, this depends on your trading time frame.
However, even if it is a daytrade you still need to be aware of the larger time frame context so see if the larger time frame levels are in play for the day ahead.
In this example, made in advance for the ES for Monday 22 April, we see that the larger move of 1593 to 1530.75 does hit tomorrow. The hourly bar 04/21/13 (20:00:00-21:00:00) CST ES JUN'13 Futures@Globex Trades has a High:1557.50 our R2 daily RTH pivot is 1559.25 and 7/16 of the larger move is 1558.
Part1 Part1 retracements and timeframes
Will the 1559.25-1558 be important? A lot will depend of the balance of the overnight (GLOBEX) session. If it drops from here then the top may have been put in place with tomorrow's RTH high lower than that.
I'll try to make a video tomorrow live in the trading day (8:30 to 15:15CT) to see if we can use the levels to help in our trading. Naturally we wouldn't trade on just the levels we would need more information to complete a trade setup.
At the left is the o/n session. You can see that the yellow circles (potential targets were hit in the o/n session for Tuesday 23 Apr. H1564.25 matched the top circle and the L1548.75 matches the lower circle (1 qtr 1546.50). These are very close for "eye-balling" the chart!
In the morning you would be looking for a higher set of targets as the preview targets were hit in the o/n session before Tuesday RTH. See the nice match on the chart. So if you were long at/near opening you could close at the 72 area and have locked in your profit before the "flash crash" today.
When you look at these posts try to look beyond the actual numbers I put forward and focus on the process.
Don't get locked in to a certain idea of the next day, just give yourself some targets for possible scenarios such as:
"It topped out in the 77.50 to 80 area and is heading down so let's aim for the 60 area and the slower uptrend line."
In the video I show the o/n 1579 high (right where we estimated it might be in the previous video).
This high or price peak becomes a POTENTIAL resistance level where if the price rises to it it might turn back down,
Having done this before.
A resistance level is like a ceiling. Price can come up to it and turn back down
OR
push on through it.
One thing that complicates things is stop-running.
As explained in the two part video stops are placed above an old high. The distance above will depend on the trader (their experience, their confidence in the trade and their account size - though this shouldn't be how you decide where to place your stop-loss order it often is).
An area of stops are like a magnet for the market makers and others. All those resting orders are a wonderful tempation.
If the price rises up to the resistance level it is often pushed through it to get to these resting orders.
However, the market makers are tricky. They don't need to take them now, or occasionally not at all, perhaps later.
I know this complicates things - but that is the market.
Finding S/r level and drawing trendlines properly the most important thing to learn. It is also skipped over by too many traders.
Start with the larger time frame and work down.
For downtrend lines connect the tops.
For uptrend lines connect the bottoms.
Divide important moves into 8ths (and thirds) to look for possible S/R levels.
One of the basics in becoming a good trader is experimentation.
The traditional tools I'm showcasing here have been tried and tested over time and so you must have these in your toolkit.
Some may have been thinking "You're showing us these fundamentals, so what works?"
In the age of rapid spreading of ideas what works best (for you) is a system that fits your personality (and time and resources and goals). Additionally you must bring some originality to your profession to truly excel at it.
"Keep experimenting - even at 80 I am making new discoveries." - Gann (loose quote)
You need an open mind and you need to follow your intuitive hunches to experiment successfully.
Once you have spend some time working through the compounding of numbers you understand that there are very few who have a set of systems that produce consistent results. (Try 15 points a week over 52 weeks and see what you get).
When you have gone through the exercise you will understand for yourself that reading a book on market profiling will only put you in a sea of competition with hundreds of thousands others. Know that banks and large trading houses have huge pockets and massive computers and a sea of bright MBAs and statisticians. If more of these would give them an edge they would do it. Instead they hack an AP twitter account or fat finger a Thursday or run stops.
To be away from the competition and to give yourself a chance you must think and create something new for yourself.
In making your trading plan you need 3 components
The setup & exit
stops money management.
A setup is a set of conditions that you have decided puts the odds in your favour for a profitable trade.
This will have two components- the amount you can make versus lose (the reward:risk or RR ratio) and the probability of it being profitable.
Different setups will have different RRs and probabilities.
One of the keys in creating a setup is trends and retracements.
Here are two videos using the ES action for today (Wednessay) to look at retracements.
(I'll have to do more on this in a later post)
We have gone in at market as the market pulled away.
This action was suspected (as we mention in the previous post) in part one due to the shallow slope of the lines.
The video shows how we adjust the stop.
We have closed out on one contract are holding the second.
(This is called "scaling out" of the trade as opposed to all-out at one price.)
We have adjusted the sop on the second to the cost price 1589.75
You scale out if you believe the setup is still valid but you are concerned that the price action shows weakening.
This shows the entry of the trade for day 1.
As mentioned in the video the last retracement was to 3/8 (37.5%) and we could have waited til then. https://screencast.com/t/frBDcY97cMm
However, I wanted to get the fill in on the video and moved up the price to get a fill.
So I'm filled at 1610.75 instead of 1610.
We are long 1 contract with a target of 1614.25 and a sell-stop of 1608.75
The day looks trendless and range bound so perhaps not the best to demonstrate a trend trade!
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the barchart was free. Sometimes it is easier to get a chart there that looks like how I want it to for a particular purpose which in this case was a simple educational example.
The thread is to showcase fundamentals for new traders an if you (or others) have questions new traders might ask please chime in.
New traders - please ask your questions and if you have a sample trade to be review please contribute
Sample questions - some of which I've answered in videos so far are things like
How did you pick the points for the retracement/extension tool?
How do you pick the level (the percentage) it might retrace to?
How do I draw a trend line?
How do I find S/R points and which are stronger?
How do I set a target?
When should I scale out?
So for fun I've started a 20 day test.
The sim account has $30,000 -pretend money - initial balance
The profit target for other might be $2,000 - let's do better than this, please.
They use $500 daily loss limit and $1,500 maximum drawdown - I think these are a bit silly, but this is only for fun.
Here is today day one - 0ne trade 3.75pts on 6 pt day.
This is 58% of the range. I hope to do better that this but this journal comes after my own trading so if I'm busy I may not get the best entry. Or if I'm sleeping, like today not the best exit.
9:48 AM 5/7/2013
Today is looking like a range bound day.
Thi is an example of a poorly timed trade which we scratched (which means entered and exited at the same price)
range bound day
yellow rectangel shows range and blue is the current middle of this choppy mess.
These are good days not to trade unless you have a range strategy and are only trading for a few ticks.
I've got 2 charts of today's /ES action. How would you project targets when entering long at today's PP (12,00) or at retrace to yesterday's high (15,25)? The entry point isn't the issue here, but the profit targets (possibly at 127,2 or 161,8 levels).
How would you draw your fib extensions when trading /ES, according to it's usual behaviour? I'm looking for a way to consistently project the same levels that everybody else does, thus finding reasonable targets for intraday trades. Black arrows in the pictures attached are there to show the two ways of I would measure the move. But I'm noob in fibs, so I'd like to have a professional fib drawer opinion here.
Here I'm using the retracement tool but with values 127,2 and 161,8. I'm using the last swing hi to the last swing low to project resistance levels. What do you think of this approach? It seemed to work with this chart pretty well today with price touching 127,2 almost to the tick. But again, I have no knowledge of using fibs, so which do you guys think is working best with /ES intraday trading and also for projecting in the daily chart (using either 24h session or just cash session)? BTW, all the charts embedded here are 24 hour. And again this is probably the wrong thread to discuss this issue, so might have to make a new one.
- Jussi
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This defineately is the right place to post your questions and thanks.
I'll give a stab at answering them (though its getting late and I must go to bed soon, so it may be tomorrow.
Bear in mind that there is no one way. Different people and will use a different approach and usually adapt their approach for the conditioins of the day. (For example Ken highlighted that on a narrow day he finds anchoring on the overnight session high and low works well).
As you asked, one needs a consistent approach. However, it would best be phased as a consistent approach for each set of conditions. For example, it should be something that you can phrase if this and this then use this approach.
Just so I'm clear, you are looking for how to establish intraday targets - is that correct?
Do you have a time frame or point frame you want to trade? (For myself, as an example, I want a minimum of a 6pt proift potential, and the time frame is within the RTH session.)
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peace, love and joy to you
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- Yes, I'm looking for probable target levels for intraday trades. I trade no breakouts, just reversals and pullbacks to trendline.
- Usually, I do not take trades outside RTH, but still use 24h charts. I like to take bigger intraday swings, trading 3-4 contracts, usually scaling out and trailing my last 1-2 contracts as far as it goes. So my target 3 would be at least 5-6 points. However, most of the time I can't see profit taking levels others use and I have to use price action and divergence signals to find the top. So I'm looking for some extra levels (fibs or other) to give me more confidence to see in advance where my trailing targets might be. Of course, it's a matter of context too.
I've been using market profile levels too, but not lately. Something like IB (first 60 min of RTH) and IB highs and lows. What do you think of those? I also use pivots set to floor and ONH + ONL levels.
Thanks for your help.
- Jussi
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an edit to the question on anchoring Fibs:
you asked for a "Fib expert" (I'm not going to say I am an expert in Fibs I use retracements and extensions as one tool)
you asked for targets others would get to (this is different than asking for the correct estimate).
I will attempt to give you my answer later but by all means start a new thread as well and check for other threads specially on Fibs
Ok here are my thoughts. The rule of thumb I would suggest is the last completed move relevant to the time frame you are trading. So if you are trading a section of the RTH then that is the relevant timeframe. This means your second anchoring of your first chart (it helps if you show the times and label the prices you use for your anchoring on the chart.)
In the first part I show how I would do it on the move you indicated. I do it with my ratios and then show measuring the idea of the result - to learn how "your beast behaves". https://screencast.com/t/Whn3whiS
In the second part I discuss using other measurements of estimation to give you a confirmation, Such as the prior day's range (i.e. 10pts) or 3 day moving average of the ranges (i.e. 9.50 pts). So you can add 10 or 9.5pts to the low 1611.75 @ 9:25 ==> 1622.25 or 1621.25. The high was 1621.75. https://screencast.com/t/yadWGuZvuaiK
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I've decided to give up on my uncombine.
I haven't realized how much time the posting takes and its cluttering this thread.
Just answering Jussi was an hour, so adding in uncombine stuff is too much.
If I decide to re-start I'll put it separately.
10:34 AM 5/9/2013
In this video I'm showing when to use the wider longer anchoring and when to use the shorter.
So you anchored from yesterday's low to the o/n high and then this would give you a target for your sell early in the morning H1630 @ 8:42. The 50% was 1624 and the low was 1623.75 @ 9:26. (1624 is your limit sell price as you need the 1 tick to 1623.75 to get a fill).
My estimated range is 8pts for today (8-11pts yest=11pts).
Adding 8 to 1623.75 gives 1631.75.
Subtracting 8 from 1630 gives 1622.
We anchor the retracement/ext tool on 1630 to 1623.75 and get the 1622.25 at the 125%
and conversely -25% gives 1631.50. So the intraday anchoring matches the /- range rectangle.
http://screencast.com/t/ZFOgphhFXvC
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First of all, daily range study is something I've had problems with. Your 3 period ma of daily range does make a lot of sense and was a kind of eye-opener. It is a simple but powerful technique.
I assume you use your daily range studies to indicate the expansion and contraction of volatility, in other words, moving from contraction phase to expansion and to contraction again. Is it so or is it something else? What kind of signals/behaviour you can read from it and how do you measure the "yesterday's range plus minus x pnts" you mentioned, for example: yday's range was 11 pnts, for tomorrow's range you expect something like 8-11 pnts, not likely more than that. Where does that come from?
One other thing I'm not very familiar with: Most of the time I can see when the day is developing to a choppy day with my market internals in real time. However, I still can't see the link between ON session and CASH session. So what should I pay attention to when analysing ON session? What are the clues?
Time's up. Have to go. Let's get back to business another day. BTW, sorry about my "bad" english. It's not my native language, so might make some errors.
Thank you again,
- Jussi
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Hi Rad and Ken
Notice that if I had added or subtracted yesterdays range in the example above see post post earlier (the rectangle =11pts vesus 8) how much better the low estmate would have been.
BTW if either of you would like to chime on with replies to Jussi's question on anchoring of fibs please feel free to do so. Also any questions you imagine newr traders would ask on fundamentals. Please keep charts clear and simple as this thread is on fundamentals (nothing exotic and no MP please- thanks).
In brief I have struggled with this and do not yet have a good answer to your question.
I have noticed that contraction of range for a period of time can happen under certain conditions and one is the current situation where we broke to the ceiling …
It is important to practise the skill of looking at the chart and anticipating what might come.
Pattern recognition is a part of this (see Lind R webinar for the imp of pattern recognition).
At the end of the trading day I draw two lines on the chart for my estimate of the HOD and LOD of the RTH.
Here is my result Thurs for Friday.
Below is my first outlook for Monday 1627.50 and 1618.
Here is an example of an alternate scenario where the market falls off in the o/n session. Notice the resistance in light pink (1615). It can hold there or go through. As there have been a series of up days there will be lots of nice juicy sell stops below it so I have chosen that it will break through and go to 1608.75 or lower.
Don't let you mind get locked into your guesses. It is only building an important skill with practice. The same skill will serve you well in the intraday session.
(I'm not a fan of this the new website format - it really makes the inline pics supersmall - on my screen look at the pics in posts above for comparison.
Also it add huge amounts of white space in between - don't blame me I didn't put thme there :) )
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peace, love and joy to you
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Hi @aquarian1
..the picture load problem is due to server change that @Big Mike was doing tonight.
If the problem persists - please report it to him.
As from the last entry in the futures.io (formerly BMT) forum changelog things should run on the new servers
right now.
Thanks for the heads up. I'll upload them tomorrow
Just finished watching a few more minutes of Linda's webinar it's how I chill -ha-hah.
I'm glad you're reading the thread -nice to know!
Your most welcome.
Wishing you a great weekend as well!
I have lots of work to do on new studies and new ideas that have come up during the week.
The main thing for me is getting more sleep!!
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peace, love and joy to you
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in post 44 on my screen the picture comes to the "m" in simple
any questions you imagine newr traders would ask on fundamentals. Please keep charts clear and simple
123456789A123456789B123456789C123456789D12456789E123456789F123456789G123456789H12
so 82 characters.
now they have been re-sized to "super tiny".
------
I guessing the re-size is now done on a ratio basis e.g 25% instead of a pixel basis e.g. 600 wide.
Because I have a small screen this means all my pics might be showing as icon sized, which would be a real discouragement to me. Maybe its just a temporary glitch?
for several years now I have have been using the same method, same programs and procedure and the result at this site has changed overnight though nothing has changed at my end.
So the "issue" is not coming from my end. or my programs.
Change your screen to 1040 X 600 and do a screensnap and post it and see what you get.
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99.99% certain the problem is your side.
If you think I am wrong, then take one of your image files (png), and zip it up. Then attach the zip file to the post. The server won't touch it. I will download the zip and examine the image. If it's like the other trouble images, then they were created with a bunch of whitespace (this is a common problem for some editors like Paint when pasting images into them).
You'll note that your next post after the problem post worked fine, so it isn't the server....
This little indicator can save a screenshot of a chart (the chart the indicator is applied to) to a user selected folder.
It works with a little button on the chart:
93004
or with the hotkey Alt+P (this can be changed in line 160 of the code).
These …
It's got 1-click upload and share in posts straight from the chart. Just enable upload to bmcharts and change to copy bbcode to clipboard in settings.
Thanks to you and @Big Mike for straightening me out.
I've been workinig to hard - too many hours and not getting enough sleep.
Moon's wooble is supposed to make people easy to respond emotionally. (so I'm going with that, blame it on the moon!
In any case, something must give so I'm cutting back on my posting. (Yes I can hear the cheers of the crowd as I say that)
If I don't respond to anyone's questions it's not that I am ignoring you, its that I'm working or sleeping.
Keep trucking gang!
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peace, love and joy to you
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