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Fundamentals for New Traders

  #11 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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S/R levels and trendlines

11:25 AM 4/24/2013

S/R levels and trendlines

Finding S/r level and drawing trendlines properly the most important thing to learn. It is also skipped over by too many traders.

Start with the larger time frame and work down.
For downtrend lines connect the tops.
For uptrend lines connect the bottoms.
Divide important moves into 8ths (and thirds) to look for possible S/R levels.



Part 1 s_r and trendlines on CDN chart

2013-04-24_1121

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #12 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Wednesday - a consolidation day

Today was a narrow-range bound day with a high where we expected it - between 77.50 and 80




Consolidation day or range bound day

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  #13 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Quick look to Thursday


running the stops and looking ahead to Thursday

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #14 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IB
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Experimentation

One of the basics in becoming a good trader is experimentation.
The traditional tools I'm showcasing here have been tried and tested over time and so you must have these in your toolkit.

Some may have been thinking "You're showing us these fundamentals, so what works?"

In the age of rapid spreading of ideas what works best (for you) is a system that fits your personality (and time and resources and goals). Additionally you must bring some originality to your profession to truly excel at it.

"Keep experimenting - even at 80 I am making new discoveries." - Gann (loose quote)

You need an open mind and you need to follow your intuitive hunches to experiment successfully.

Once you have spend some time working through the compounding of numbers you understand that there are very few who have a set of systems that produce consistent results. (Try 15 points a week over 52 weeks and see what you get).

When you have gone through the exercise you will understand for yourself that reading a book on market profiling will only put you in a sea of competition with hundreds of thousands others. Know that banks and large trading houses have huge pockets and massive computers and a sea of bright MBAs and statisticians. If more of these would give them an edge they would do it. Instead they hack an AP twitter account or fat finger a Thursday or run stops.

To be away from the competition and to give yourself a chance you must think and create something new for yourself.

a video on experimentation.

experimentation


Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #15 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Broker: IB
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I tried posting some pics with the indicator

not sure where they are

heres the video

double top, setups and likely for Monday 2013-04-28_2306



Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #16 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Trends and retracements - a key tool for your setup

8:16 PM 5/1/2013
Trends and retracements

In making your trading plan you need 3 components
The setup & exit
stops
money management.

A setup is a set of conditions that you have decided puts the odds in your favour for a profitable trade.
This will have two components- the amount you can make versus lose (the reward:risk or RR ratio) and the probability of it being profitable.

Different setups will have different RRs and probabilities.

One of the keys in creating a setup is trends and retracements.

Here are two videos using the ES action for today (Wednessay) to look at retracements.
(I'll have to do more on this in a later post)

The overnight session
Part 1 of Trends and retracements

The RTH session
Trends and retracements Part 2





Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #17 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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The setup

An example of a setup

This is an equal leg setup where it has risen 8.75 and we are looking for a fall of 50% or 4.25 to 4.5 points, and then for the rise to continue 8.75.

With experience you will see the chances of this unfolding would be better with a steeper slope - but this is just and example.

http://screencast.com/t/70MK24ram



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  #18 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Broker: IB
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
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We have gone in at market as the market pulled away.
This action was suspected (as we mention in the previous post) in part one due to the shallow slope of the lines.
The video shows how we adjust the stop.

https://screencast.com/t/tRyLo4fMd



Last edited by aquarian1; May 2nd, 2013 at 11:54 AM.
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  #19 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,472 given, 2,480 received

reading the white space

http://screencast.com/t/AaKmdJ04n3KM


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  #20 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,472 given, 2,480 received


The result
Buy = 1589.5
Buy = 1589.75
Sell = 1592
Sell = 1594
6.75
50
337.50



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