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Discretionary Spot FX using PASR


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Discretionary Spot FX using PASR

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  #21 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received

Instrument: AUDUSD
Direction: Either
Technicals: Hourly bars currently testing top of descending wedge.
Fundamentals: AUD CPI figures to be released at 11:30am GMT+10
Entry: TBD
Stop: TBD
Target: TDB
R:R: TBD
Summary: If the CPI figures are a miss, I'll go short with a target near the bottom of the descending wedge channel. If CPI figures hit or exceed, I expect a breakout of the channel and will go long.

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  #22 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received


HitTheCity View Post
Instrument: AUDUSD
Direction: Either
Technicals: Hourly bars currently testing top of descending wedge.
Fundamentals: AUD CPI figures to be released at 11:30am GMT+10
Entry: TBD
Stop: TBD
Target: TDB
R:R: TBD
Summary: If the CPI figures are a miss, I'll go short with a target near the bottom of the descending wedge channel. If CPI figures hit or exceed, I expect a breakout of the channel and will go long.

Well, I'm in short as the CPI figures were disappointing. Got a horror fill so I'm behind the 8-ball a bit, but still feel confident this news should thrust the AUDUSD back towards the bottom side of its channel.

Instrument: AUDUSD
Direction: Short
Technicals: Hourly bars currently testing top of descending wedge.
Fundamentals: AUD CPI figures to be released at 11:30am GMT+10
Entry: 1.02352
Stop: 1.02676
Target: 1.02073
R:R: < 1:1 (not a great R:R due to bad fill)
Summary: CPI figures were a miss, so shorted AUD.

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  #23 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received



HitTheCity View Post
Well, I'm in short as the CPI figures were disappointing. Got a horror fill so I'm behind the 8-ball a bit, but still feel confident this news should thrust the AUDUSD back towards the bottom side of its channel.

Instrument: AUDUSD
Direction: Short
Technicals: Hourly bars currently testing top of descending wedge.
Fundamentals: AUD CPI figures to be released at 11:30am GMT+10
Entry: 1.02352
Stop: 1.02676
Target: 1.02073
R:R: < 1:1 (not a great R:R due to bad fill)
Summary: CPI figures were a miss, so shorted AUD.

This one didn't work out.

Entry: 1.02352
Stop: 1.02676
P&L: -32.4 pips

Both the technicals and fundamentals seemed to align to make this look like a winning trade. However, the market is about probabilities, not certainties and you can never be correct all the time. I still feel like it was a 'good' trade even though it wasn't a winning trade.

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  #24 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Short
Technicals: Price bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: USD Durable goods data due
Entry: 99.382
Stop: 99.491
Target: 99.15
R:R: > 1:2 (not a great R:R due to bad fill)
Summary: Short USDJPY if Durable goods data is a miss

This is a retrospective journal entry. I made this trade after the Durable goods figures were a miss. Price went briefly in my direction but ended up bouncing back, hitting my stop and continuing further. From a rational perspective, I'm not sure why the market reacted in this way, but I'm glad I had a tight stop in place.

Entry: 99.382
Stop: 99.491
P&L: -10.9 pips

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  #25 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Price has been bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: BOJ meeting today should be a catalyst to at least retest 100 mark and possibly break through. Especially if USD GDP figures are on target later today.
Entry: 99.188
Stop: 98.978
Target: 100.845
R:R: > 1:2
Summary: I'm banking on the BOJ news to be bearish for JPY. I think I got a pretty good entry price. I have my initial target set a fair way off, I may bring that back in depending on how quickly price moves and where it is at before the USD GDP figures are released.

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  #26 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received


HitTheCity View Post
Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Price has been bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: BOJ meeting today should be a catalyst to at least retest 100 mark and possibly break through. Especially if USD GDP figures are on target later today.
Entry: 99.188
Stop: 98.978
Target: 100.845
R:R: > 1:2
Summary: I'm banking on the BOJ news to be bearish for JPY. I think I got a pretty good entry price. I have my initial target set a fair way off, I may bring that back in depending on how quickly price moves and where it is at before the USD GDP figures are released.

Ouch. That didn't work at all. I even moved my stop slightly further out just in case we touched below 99.

Entry: 99.188
Stop: 98.85
P&L: -33 pips

I'm really not understanding how the USDJPY is moving right now. I need to take 5 and think before getting in again with this pair, even though I still feel like it should test 100 again today.

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  #27 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Price has been bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: BOJ meeting today should be a catalyst to at least retest 100 mark and possibly break through. Especially if USD GDP figures are on target later today.
Entry: 99.815
Stop: 98.495
Target: 100.845
R:R: > 1:10
Summary: I'm going again with the USDJPY long. This could make me look really silly after already losing over 30 pips going long on it today, but I feel like this trade is still good with huge upside, I just didn't foresee the price dropping back below 99 before shooting for 100, which caught me out earlier. I'll see how this one plays out then review whether I should have had a wider stop on the first trade or if it's better to have tighter stops that get hit more often before catching a runner.

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  #28 (permalink)
Melbourne
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 78 given, 46 received


HitTheCity View Post
Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Price has been bound below big scary 100 figure
Fundamentals: BOJ meeting today should be a catalyst to at least retest 100 mark and possibly break through. Especially if USD GDP figures are on target later today.
Entry: 99.815
Stop: 98.495
Target: 100.845
R:R: > 1:10
Summary: I'm going again with the USDJPY long. This could make me look really silly after already losing over 30 pips going long on it today, but I feel like this trade is still good with huge upside, I just didn't foresee the price dropping back below 99 before shooting for 100, which caught me out earlier. I'll see how this one plays out then review whether I should have had a wider stop on the first trade or if it's better to have tighter stops that get hit more often before catching a runner.

Well, the market has humbled me and made me look and feel like a bit of a muppet. I was so sure the BoJ news would be bearish for the JPY and perhaps in the longer term it will prove to be the case, but the market reacted in a bullish way when the BoJ didn't double down on their previous QE initiative.

There is a lesson here and I'm pretty sure I know what it is, but I'll wait until the end of the trading week to formulate my thoughts and let myself cool off a little bit.

Entry: 98.860
Stop: 98.785 (moved my stop up. That looks like a bad decision. Think I'm going to instigate some harder rules on doing so for next week).
P&L: -7.5 pips

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April 26, 2013


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