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Discretionary Spot FX using PASR
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Created: by HitTheCity Attachments:1

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Discretionary Spot FX using PASR

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 104 since Apr 2012
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HitTheCity View Post
One thing I missed when entering this trade is a constricting wedge pattern developing for this pair. To hit my target, it would require breaking out of this wedge. I'm now considering taking profit now as it kisses the top of the wedge formation, then potentially getting in again if it breaks out of the wedge.

Went ahead and closed the trade.

Entry price: 100.603
Exit Price: 101.138
P&L: 53.5 pips

Lessons: It could be argued that exiting early may be a case of 'not letting my winners run'. I more so feel it is a case of missing an important technical pattern when analysing the trade opportunity. Even if it is the latter, I need to pay more attention to this. I still think there's a good chance that the pair will break out of this pattern though (which could be my next trade).

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  #12 (permalink)
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Trade

Trade:

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Higher highs for entire week in constricting flag pattern
Fundamentals: BOJ QE gives JPY bearish outlook
Market Conditions: Abe giving press conference which has acted as catalyst for breakout of flag pattern. There is a G20 statement due at some point before the weekend which does add risk to this trade.
Entry: ~98.83
Stop: 98.354
Target: 99.31
R:R: 1:2
Summary: Now that flag pattern has broken to the upside, only obvious target is the magical 100 mark, so have set target just below that.


Last edited by HitTheCity; April 19th, 2013 at 04:09 AM.
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  #13 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: Forex
 
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HitTheCity View Post
Trade:

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Long
Technicals: Higher highs for entire week in constricting flag pattern
Fundamentals: BOJ QE gives JPY bearish outlook
Market Conditions: Abe giving press conference which has acted as catalyst for breakout of flag pattern. There is a G20 statement due at some point before the weekend which does add risk to this trade.
Entry: ~98.83
Stop: 98.354
Target: 99.31
R:R: 1:2
Summary: Now that flag pattern has broken to the upside, only obvious target is the magical 100 mark, so have set target just below that.

This one worked out a treat. I actually mistyped my target in the trade summary above, I got out at 99.568.

Entry: 98.853
Exit: 99.568
P&L: 71.5 pips

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  #14 (permalink)
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Prior week trading summary

Trades: 3
Wins: 2/3, 66%
P&L: 79 pips

Happy to finish the first week of my journal in the black. No lapses in discipline, each trade carefully researched - I'm aiming to do the same this week!

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  #15 (permalink)
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Start of week market summary

Event risk: The news docket is fairly light early in the week with no major announcements due until Wednesday (GMT+10). I will therefore be looking to make predominantly technical based trades early in the week, looking for opportunities to fade the top and bottom of ranges or channels. Later in the week there are some big news events that have a scope to really move the market. I'll be looking to watch those closely and take some positions based on likely outcomes of those events.

Critical levels:
USDJPY pushing to break 100
EURUSD hovering just above 1.3

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  #16 (permalink)
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Trade Idea

Trade:

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Short
Technicals: Large resistance price barrier at 100 that will take some effort to breach.
Fundamentals: BOJ QE gives JPY bearish outlook
Market Conditions: USDJPY gapped up over the weekend. I feel it's likely that the gap is likely to be filled and price will slowly retrace towards 99.5 early this week.
Entry: ~99.8
Stop: 100.03
Target: 99.47
R:R: > 1:2
Summary: Despite being counter trend, I feel this is a high probability trade with limited downside.

Trade is live.

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  #17 (permalink)
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HitTheCity View Post
Trade:

Instrument: USDJPY
Direction: Short
Technicals: Large resistance price barrier at 100 that will take some effort to breach.
Fundamentals: BOJ QE gives JPY bearish outlook
Market Conditions: USDJPY gapped up over the weekend. I feel it's likely that the gap is likely to be filled and price will slowly retrace towards 99.5 early this week.
Entry: ~99.8
Stop: 100.03
Target: 99.47
R:R: > 1:2
Summary: Despite being counter trend, I feel this is a high probability trade with limited downside.

Trade is live.

I cut this one short of the initial target after it was clear the little thrust down was losing steam. Still, starting the week with a small win, so that's nice.

Entry: 99.799
Exit: 99.713
P&L: 8.6 pips

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  #18 (permalink)
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HitTheCity View Post
I cut this one short of the initial target after it was clear the little thrust down was losing steam. Still, starting the week with a small win, so that's nice.

Entry: 99.799
Exit: 99.713
P&L: 8.6 pips

Well, this should be a lesson to me - price eventually fell to hit my original target. I have to learn not to let trades play out, even if that means taking a loss after being in the black on a trade every now and again. Not doing so will eventually destroy my R:R.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Trade

Instrument: EURUSD
Direction: Short
Technicals: Big support at 1.3 that is just waiting for a fundamental catalyst to bust through
Fundamentals: Eurozone PMI figures coming in weaker than expected.
Market Conditions: Been a slow day thus far but expecting a big spike of volatility when the announcements come through
Entry: 1.30257
Stop: 1.30717
Target: Wait and see... if price goes through 1.3 it could be a big move which I might trail.
R:R: Undefined as I've not yet set an exact target, but I'm hoping for at least a 100 pip move.
Summary: If these news results can cause a break of the 1.3, a big move might result.

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  #20 (permalink)
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HitTheCity View Post
Instrument: EURUSD
Direction: Short
Technicals: Big support at 1.3 that is just waiting for a fundamental catalyst to bust through
Fundamentals: Eurozone PMI figures coming in weaker than expected.
Market Conditions: Been a slow day thus far but expecting a big spike of volatility when the announcements come through
Entry: 1.30257
Stop: 1.30717
Target: Wait and see... if price goes through 1.3 it could be a big move which I might trail.
R:R: Undefined as I've not yet set an exact target, but I'm hoping for at least a 100 pip move.
Summary: If these news results can cause a break of the 1.3, a big move might result.

Entry: 1.30257
Exit: 1.29938
P&L: 31.9 pips

In opposite fashion to my last trade, I held this one too long. Profit peaked at over 50 pips, but I decided to put a 20 pip trail stop on it to give it a chance to run overnight while I slept. Still, it's a solid win, so I won't beat myself up over it too much.

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