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Trading fast markets


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Trading fast markets

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  #971 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,505 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,567 received

I have bought a new action cam for POV videos and timelapse series. Have a look at one hour travel jammed into 1 minute. 40 mile trip around city of Prague in stormy weather.



Notice a small American Army convoy in first few seconds of the video

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Can you help answer these questions
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  #972 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,505 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,567 received

Trading fast. Riding even faster! Training with a good friend (professional rider) in Misano.


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  #973 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,505 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,567 received


I have discovered more about myself this event. As we had discussed with you earlier in this and a sister thread, it is very important to have a strong level of self-confidence and high degree of self-evaluation. Without it it is impossible to achieve anything. This has also transpired during this racing event. I had started on a back foot at Thursday, lap time very bad and I did not know where to improve it in a quality, expect just pushing the limits of braking and accelerating, which is the last thing you should do after you learn to do everything right and ride a beautiful line. I hired a buddy of mine as an intructor. He's a professional motorcycle athlete and were competing in World Superbikes Superstock 1000 series. So he rode with me and shown me a footage from his gopro cam. He wasn't polite with s** and f** words. The thing is I am not new to racing or riding motorcycle on a track. But somehow it eroded and while I still remember all the right things I do things wrongly due to lack of trust in everything.

So we started to work from the scratch. From a seating position on straights and in corners, to timely body movement, to location on track during braking and turns. Usually learning it takes quite some time, but for me trusting him leading me faster was not a journey into a new unknown land but rather recalling forgotten landscapes. So it took just 4 training sessions with him to improve to a time close to my ever best times in races. With few more sessions to go and in a race I am confident I would have beaten it. The video is from our last outing on Friday. Unfortunately my gearbox stuck in 3rd at the end of it so I had to retire and call a day, missing the race. It appeared to be not a 3k hit with a gearbox replacement I have feared (this motor is so strong after been tuned to 220 hp it is going through it's third box already), but a 50c clip lost. So it was fixed by the end of the day, but the rain started at night and ruined all further plans. And then I drove home. Another 700 mile trip. Luckily I had 130km/81mph rated trailer so I got home incredibly fast in under 9 hours. A record.

In a sense, participating in a race is like doing a trade - some conditions are under your control like the line you are choosing, braking and acceleration and some aren't - like other riders hitting you, someone crashing into or in front of your and putting oil or a debris on track. There is a risk of writing off your race back and gear (about 15k on average) and getting some injuries that can send you in hospital for long if you aren't lucky. If you are very unlucky it can end up with a wooden casket. So risk is quite real, while reward is more of a personal thing. Only few get 1$ worth plastic medals or cups, most just proud of their participation.

In case of trading we have risk with maybe much higher degree of uncertainty (nobody would race if they would end of with 50% probability of going down, it is probably 1-2 guys crashing during the race on average among 30-40 riders, so it's 1-3% rather, and usually happens with someone making some really bad decision), but far more controllable damage. And quite real rewards. So trading is in my opinion far less risky than any kind of adrenaline sport. And it can give quite a satisfaction too, not only fatten an account.

A lesson learned, not only for racing but for other aspects of life including trading: give yourself an extra credit of trust, never undervalue your abilities and achievements, and if you put some good work into something and have seen positive results - give it a go and don't be afraid to accept a reasonable risk.

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  #974 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,505 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,567 received

This is a simple system I wish to explore and share with anybody who is longing for a short term order flow based system. This is not a finished all done bells and whistles path to reaches. Rather an idea, one is open to explore for himself.

I have tested this idea on several different instruments: dax, euro, gold and it seems to be universal, as it is the most fundamental idea.

In a nutshell - open a yesterday's chart, put a structural time frame on, where you can work with whole day's structure on one screen and see all major swings. I use 30 minutes time frame. You can use 1H for 24h markets, or 15-minutes for shorter session markets.



After this is done, mark major swing highs and lows with pin bars or just bars with tails, signalling a reaction and consecutive buying or a sell off. Look to have this price level being reacted to more than once. Paint 3-5 levels, don't go crazy.

After this is done, go to the low time frame, like 1 minute or lower. I like 30 seconds universally. No indicators needed, but you can put a standard bollinger on it, it assists visually.

Don't fade the price running into the level, bollinger will be wide open. Let it react first, break or reverse. After price is settled one way or the other look to fade the level on consecutive approach. Prefer a fast move to the level to a creeping one. You can place an order few ticks before the level - this is should be tested for each instrument. Look to protect these trades after few candle closes. Use fixed take profit. I like 3 risks. Risk should be determined based on current volatility. I like 1-1.5 atrs of the trading time frame. Hence target will be 3-5 atrs.



If you use tools like Jigsaw TS, cumulative delta, simple tape - you have a powerful instrument to trade with this simple system. This is not a holy grail or anything, but a basic idea that works, if you can manage to trade it consistently during few hours of moderate volatility. Avoid trading during dead hours and during market open and ecostat releases when volatility spikes.

I personally can't trade it, it's just too much for me at the moment. But this is totally something I will put an effort into converting into an algorithm. It works well with my delta strength trading model, like everything else.

Remember, this is only to provoke your thought, give you a thesis. It's not a recommendation, please investigate and test before doing anything with real money!

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  #975 (permalink)
smusa87
Nigeria
 
 
Posts: 1 since Feb 2015
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Hi Xelaar,

How do you manage to use CTS platform with Jigsaw add-on a ninjatrader. Is it on any additional cost. And why would you require confirmation of another DOM though you are using super Tool like Jigsaw.

I love cts but Jigsaw too and you know it can't be added to cts. I don't like Ninja so much and if you are doing it with no additional cost i am definitely going to do the same. CTS and Jigsaw.

I love the your set-up excluding indicators.

Thanks

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  #976 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,505 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,567 received

Hi guys, it's been a while. While I tend to update my DAX journal in Elite section from time to time, I totally neglected this general thread. After all it was initially dedicated to doing a Combine.

DAX trading slowly but improving, a decision to cut risk and move to CFD for a time being was a first smart decision for a long time. Granted, I tried my hand at trading larger setups on DAX using CFD back in January 2015 with Dukascopy broker, but volatility spiked then and their spreads became very unreliable, many entries weren't triggered because spread would jump from 1 point to 8 in some key areas, same with stops. So I bailed on it. But the problem was the capital I had committed to developing myself as a DAX intraday trader was very insufficient for intraday swing trading (10k eur). It was ok when I initially moved to attemp to ride small swings with scalping entries, but more erratic market and very variable volatility effectively killed this possibility for me. And I tried to trade for some time with stops being like 750 eur per trade at times, which was more than 7.5% of account, but one-two losses always put me into completely upset state and I was unable to capitilize on next trades. So I had to do something. So when I found another venue to trade CFD cheaper and with more stable spreads and execution it was a no brainer.

I still consider to move back to futures once I trade consitently profitable, but according to my trading plan it would require at least 50k eur capital to be able to work with 10-30 points stops, trading from 1 contact for 20-30 points, up to 3 for 10 points, but as you can see math is still wrong with such large contracts.

Anyway, I will continue with CFD. However, I would like to ask for your opinion. I consider to take a course in trading small cap company stocks. Since I never day traded stocks, taking a course makes more sense than wasting time trying to learn it by trial and error. Time wise it suits me, as US market opens at 3-30 PM and I prefer to finish with DAX by 2 PM. The reason is to have an alternative trading venue, alternative market. I kept looking for additional instruments besides DAX to be able to rely up, but any index is pretty much the same, YM being a most correlated one, but others not too far. And gold and crude require totally different approach, and in my opinion require a lot of hours of sitting and waiting for a setup to come. I do not consider scalping for a few ticks a road ahead for me.

Hence the idea of adding stocks trading skill to my experience. And who knows maybe it will suit me better and I will enjoy it more. A big advantage is there are many trading groups and communities day trading stocks, while with DAX I am pretty much alone, especially with a completely custom approach to it. It's unbelievable lonely at times and I keep questioning myself what if I am chasing a ghost? There is nobody around to look at it from the side..

So let me know what do you think.

Cheers

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  #977 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,505 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,567 received

Hi guys
Not so much trading recently but today I completed my scale in on gold, 66% on gold vs euro and 33% on gold vs usd.
I don't plan to add more even if NFP will take us closer to lows, but there is a good chance it will take off on nfp is number is quite bad. There are signs that sh%t is going to hit the fan in November, I totally don't buy a lie about a rate hike and I see a possibility of escalation with Russia, so going long gold in my trading account and going to buy few small investment bars with very low spread locally too, in case things get ugly soon and capital controls ensued.

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  #978 (permalink)
billbohm
NEW DELHI + Uttar Pradesh/INDIA
 
 
Posts: 1 since Jan 2016
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I need 1 hour bar - historical data for CL, Crude Oil, NYMEX for 10-20 years in Excel format, OHLC. Any help will be greatly appreciated.

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  #979 (permalink)
 natan1967 
Ramat Gan
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Trading: Emini ES
 
Posts: 13 since Jun 2020
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xelaar View Post
Here we go. I applied for a Combine yesterday and today is my first trading day. I have introduced myself in my first thread now moved from Elite to regular forum, so if you are interested - feel free to check it out. It also includes my pre-combine practice with both methodology and CTS T4 platform.

I am a momentum trader. I like to go with the flow and be done fast. I don't like to nurse winning trades and I despise keeping losing trades on a life support. So I trade with a small stop and large target, not being afraid to be wronged by the market even if it continues to move my way after stopping me out. It's not about direction only, much more important is anticipating volatility and timing the trade.

I am not married to a trading system or an instrument. I use what suits me best and what works best at the moment. I have found success previously trading news releases on Forex market, being consistently profitable. I could still do it, but I have chosen to move up to the professional arena and not be a subject of brokers' manipulations and tricks they play constantly in retails FX, having heated conversation with brokers confiscating profits and promising to have an FSA Ombudsman to go after them. Enough is enough. I traded different styles from 3 pip scalps to trades off daily charts with 500 pips stops. I am most comfortable however with intra-day trading and with fast trades that prove you wrong or right without unnecessary delay. Thus momentum trading in fast moving markets.

The reason I am taking a Combine is first and foremost I want to test myself as a trader, I want to force myself to improve my discipline and patience, and I want to place myself into a more professional atmosphere than trading from home lonely staring at charts and having zero accountability. I love very strict risk management of Combine and I believe it will improve my trading. I also wouldn't mind getting funded with a larger account, since I prefer not to put together a sizeable trading capital myself at this point, having other financial commitments. Perhaps when I am funded and if I like the way it goes I will look at option to trade both PTP and my own funds.

I believe there are two type of people in markets: analysts and traders. First group is much more populous. Most people with technical degree and analytical skills and mindset naturally assign themselves into a first group. These people concentrate on what market did before and trying to find out what it will do next. They find all the reasons to support their argument. They also find all the reasons why they are wrong and they wrong often enough. Another group is traders. These people trade what they see, not what they think. Paralysis by analysis never applies to them. I had started in the first group like most people, having a masters degree in IT and natural aspiration for analysis. It took me a long time to cross the border and get into a second group. I am by no means is master trader and I do have lots of faults like impatience, periodical lack of discipline. However I understand them and control them as much as I can.

Trading plan.
It is very simple. I trade with momentum. I start my day by doing a basic top-down analysis from daily to trading time frame. I mark major support and resistance zones and channels. I don't use any predictive indicators or oscillators. I use EMA 21 for general guidance and I use zig-zag for anchoring and knowing sizes of rotations and legs. I trade normally from just one chart but currently I use a secondary chart with range bars and Keltner channel to look inside bars of my main chart.
I have decided to trade Gold for the Combine, because this is the most appealing market right now with shocking volatility and huge swings. I have chosen 2 minute GC chart as my trading chart and 2 ticks range chart as my peeking-inside-candles chart. I use EMA21, 50 ticks zig-zag and volume on my 2 minute chart and 20/20/4 Keltner channel on my 2 tick range chart.

I have just one setup. I establish the direction of market sentiment by comparing recent rotations on 2 minute chart, which must be at least 50 ticks in size (zig-zag does it for me). I want to see a current rotation to be in the same direction as a previous one, so to play a reversal of sentiment I need to see one rotation completed before I will enter on next one. My trigger bar is a large 2 minute bar with little or no wick in a direction of sentiment. For current volatility is should be 20-30 ticks tall at least. During quieter times I would settle for at least 15 ticks. I enter with a stop market order 2 ticks above high or below low (for up and down markets respectfully). My stop is 10 to 20 ticks wide depending on volatility.

Normally I use 10 ticks even if market making large swings. I only opt to 20 ticks if price discovery is malperforming and spread is jumping, like it was last two days. I still try to decrease my exposure as soon as possible by reducing stop and putting to break even as I am 10 ticks in profit. If I use 20 ticks stop I use 2 times smaller position size. That simple.

I strive to trade less. This method allows me to take just few trades per day. I look to trade 3 to 5 trade per day tops and maximum 3 full stop losers. Then I just stop. Even if I had winning trades that day I stop after 3 losers, as it means either I can't read the market or market is too erratic.

I target 50 to 100 ticks depending on recent rotation sizes (I look for no more than 70% of rotation). I look to add to a winning trade once it is at BE and I have a new signal - another strong closing bar. Therefore I never risk more that just 1 position.

For 150k Combine I have chosen 5 cars position as my base position. Relatively large DLL can be deceptive and the Max DD is only 1.5 time of it, so it's foolish to risk a full DLL per day unless a sizeable cushion of profit is already established. Certainly not at the beginning of Combine. I will start first day with 1 contract positions striving to make some cushion to move to 2 contracts per trade. If I have a losing day and I stopped myself, next day I go down one car on my base position until my cushion is re-established that day or later. I will only trade maximum of 7 cars as a base position by the second half of the Combine when a large profit is already there, allowing for 1 scale-in. Normally I will use 5 cars as a base and allow 2 scale-in 5 cars each. (In reality last one will be just 4 cars as T4 has funny ways of calculating exposure but I don't care). This tactic will allow me survive much longer than I would with an inflexible position sizing.

20 day Combine required average of 800 usd net per day profit. In reality it can be as low as 400 as you can trade 40 trading days, not 20. But let's leave as a backup plan. My ambitious target is to look for 3100 usd per day target at which I stop trading. This figure assumes I trade with 5 cars base position size, I have 50% winning day rate and my losing day is 1500 and I need to make 800 per day, therefore 3100 will cover 1500 of losses and still make 1600 per two days. This is of course very simplistic approach and I do plan to have much less losing days than 50% and have few or non 1500 losing days, but I need to put some sort of boundaries in place.

Here I am, hope you weren't bored to death by reading it and let's enjoy this ride together!

I, wELL THIS POST IS FROM SOME 10 YEARS AGO. i WONDER IF U STILL TRADE WITH THE jIGSAW TOOLS

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