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Trading fast markets
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Trading fast markets

  #741 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received

Crude today

Really slow trading today with several violent moves.

Took 3 trades, first a scratch that would work but comparing to other swings it started to get choppy. A 7 ticks loser and 10 ticks winner.

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No trades in combine.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #742 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
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Going further down this road

After much deliberations I have decided to start working on building reliable statistics of trading order flow with the tape. In order to put all setups and instruments into a common denominator and if anything err on a upper side, I will be using 10 ticks initial stop setup for all instruments and setups. This means smaller stops won't be used, if I chose to take larger setups off higher time frame 30 ticks stop will be used and position size adjusted.

This means starting with a larger position for base setups, i.e. 10 ticks will use 6 contracts size, 30 ticks will use 2 contract size. I will be able to examine MAE once statistics build up and determine if stop size optimization is needed. I will be also recording ATR on selected time frame at the time of taking a trade to be able to correspond it with MAE.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #743 (permalink)
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prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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DAX trading


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Low volume chop today, I wouldn't trade it live in any case. I won't count it into stats either as I have made a decision to use position sizing and accept setups from larger time frame to build up reliable statistics and today's trades won't match requirements.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #744 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Combine

Took one trade in Combine today, as I planned to get a piece of NFP action in gold if it makes enough momentum. And make it did.

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I was too modest with my target, could easily get 100 ticks instead of 37.

I front-run Yesterday HOD on strong momentum out of NFP numbers, so likely a fill on real market would be with a minimal slippage, since we were filled in pre-stop cluster area. Previously I entered after stops were triggered, it's not fun as live slippage is very significant. Now I only use this entry on a very strong momentum and very significant level by front-running the level. So I am being honest with myself. Stop was 10 ticks, also in line with my real trading plans.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #745 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Crude today

Only took two trades after deciding on a new uniform risk profile.

First one was stopped out on runner at BE legitimately, a second one after taking scale off just stuck and seems price action died. So I wanted to close out for good and shut the platform down. Of course, as soon as I closed it as it started to reverse it did drop for good. Another proof that messing with trades makes more harm than good - you will hardly save losers from running into stops, but will easily kill good trades without giving them a chance to develop.

A good measure to manage runners is to trail them from a higher time frame. I use HeikenAshi painbars from FatTails (no less!) and they are pretty good trailing tool on 10x time frame. I use 150 contracts chart for entries in crude and 1500 for direction, location and trade management.

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  #746 (permalink)
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prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Last edited by xelaar; October 22nd, 2013 at 07:02 PM.
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  #747 (permalink)
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Made a mess today in mini Dow, but escaped it by correcting mistakes.
Entered on a setup that looked valid on a smaller time frame, but did not confirm it from a higher time frame. Worse, it was before 8 AM news and way before pit open. As a result stuck in a small consolidation for 50 minutes unable to get to entry to scratch. I should have scratched for 5 tick loss when I could. News did not stop me out, then open came, originally it avoided my stop loss but did not come really to entry, so it continued to run in a consolidation albeit much faster. Then I did a really dumb thing - I moved my stop loss up to avoid been stopped out in a chop. Of course then Dow proceed to run up in a straight line to stop me out mercilessly. So I planned on 300$ stop but pain 500.

Then I took a good trade up, was up by 15 ticks or so but it came down. I protected the trade after one retest so I did not lose, scratch at BE. It went down and generated a pretty good signal off higher frame. I took this trade, planned to use 6 contracts as per plan, but that freaking platform did not allow me to sell two times 3 contract via buy sell bar in contract window!!! If I have 3 selected it will allow to sell or buy only that. Ridiculous.

This trade was good. It got to the day low which was I expected and I closed out almost on my target. Covered my loss and a little bit up. If I would scratch that first dumb trade at small loss I would be very nicely up!

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  #748 (permalink)
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Crude today

Chop continues. Tried 2 trades on Ninja demo, one scratched and second closed at +7 ticks (6 cars).

Took only a second trade in Combine, that should be a semiswing trade so waited on a bit of confirmation and used 20 ticks stop.

It stuck in a range, so after several ups and downs I cut it at +1 tick (4 contracts). There is clearly no momentum, it will likely stay in a range and then any direction is possible.

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Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #749 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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I should have ended with Crude after this post, unfortunately I did not. I have a decent trade idea to long off the very clear and precise double bottom, but was reminded about "trading with trend". Unfortunately yesterday was a reversal day, so all attempts of "trading with trend" went miserable and the only good setups were long ones, "against the trend" but with the momentum. But in overall it was a strange day, lots of small fights between bulls and bears, tape and ladder flipping all the time and balance changes frequently. A negative day in Combine, but positive in Ninja, because in Combine I stuck with only larger setups that went sour, and in Ninja I took 10 tick stop setups that were productive.

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I also took 2 gold trades in Combine, first lost 500 and second won 700. Liquidity was poor in gold thus setups that could produce a really big profit went only very marginal.

Overal something like -450 day in Combine. Not a disaster, but make a goal of hitting the target even more difficult as I only have 7 days left by now. This fixing to a number of days instead of minimal makes things very artificial. You won't get anything similar when trading live for yourself.

There will be only choice to swing for fences in last couple of day, as there is nothing to lose. This is a bad motivation new combine gives.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.

Last edited by xelaar; October 25th, 2013 at 04:43 AM.
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  #750 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,739 given, 2,592 received


Did well in DAX today, just one trade but good one.
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Closed yesterday loss and in positive.

Traded Crude on Combine this morning. Well, it was a difficult trade. Went in short early in Globex on a premise that it failed to take out the high, not much gap on opening and printed a lower low. Also, last several days Crude was a hard sell in Globex. I understood, that this trade can shake me out easily. But given the small number of days left in combine I have decided to give it a maximum space to breath as much as I can take. 4 car position.

I held it for 4.5 hours, withstood massive drawdown and held into Crude pit open. It finally sold off to day lows but failed to go lower. Closed by +24 ticks, max drawdown was 28 ticks. I escaped the punishment, as soon trend reversed back up. Done with crude today, only have an optional gold trade on possible stop run high.

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