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Trading fast markets


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Trading fast markets

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  #711 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received

Today DAX is in a very tight range, as very small volume is being traded. I reckon this is due to NFP day. I practice entries without aligning the levels, I had only one decent signal early and took 10 ticks off it as traget 1 and runner stopped at entry. After that I just placed trades for the sake of practicing entries. I have to say this excersize is nearly worthless, because DAX is totally dormant and at some point size comes it and produce activity for 10-20 seconds, then it dies out again. This is not the market to trade live or even do any sort of measured practicing.

I will probably stay out of trading in combine account today at all. Not worth it, I usually do bad on NFP days. I will stick to my Ninja setup that I start to actually like and keep practicing entries on crude.

Combine-wise, I have a half behind me, 4500 profit has been booked. This is less than half (6000) so it makes second half quite tough to get to the profit target. At current number of losers per day I can hardly increase my position size, so I need to work on reducing these losers. I will look to bring stop to break even early. Not touching it helps to get occational runner that could be stopped at be instead but apparently it not worth it - these strings of losers that result from not protecting the trade actually kill daily profit and any chance to get to the target. So my plan will be to protect the trade early and take part one off earlier and hope occasional runner will do the job of bringing profits home. If I manage to reduce losing streaks I will be able to add to position size too.

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  #712 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received

I have a feeling my method can actually do better in gold than in CL. So I will try next week to apply it to gold first using 10 ticks stop as maximum risk looking for 20-30 ticks on first target. Since aI am not sure yet about expected performance I opt to stay away from combine account and trade in my Ninja. If I get into a groove I will move to combine. If I want to get to the profit target I need to start posting much more profit. Currently I see tge biggest issue as levels in crude are not strong and as result I get many losers in a row. Also moves many times are shallow. Before diving into changing the system I want to try with a different instrument I have good experience with such as gold, which is notorious for abiding levels and reacting to it.

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  #713 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received


I have been reading a recent praise thread to Fat Tails about using Heiken-Ashi and Renko bars with FT's implementation of SuperSmoother. It reminded me about my own experience of trading EurUSD forex pair using Fractal Bars and Advanced LaGuerre Filter. It was going actually great until it chopped me off to death. That was a in summer 2012. I remember that I could not find a decisive filter to using this strategy so I abandoned it.

Thinking about it again, I believe that better understanding of order flow and how key levels develop and how price action behaves around it together with reading volume profile is actually the basis of my trading approach. The way I enter now is just a crutch for absence of more reliable way to get onto developing swings. While I posted good and very consistent results lately in crude, I am not very happy about general profitability as compared to risk taken every day, even if I keep ending every day in profit. Also, it puts a bit of strain mentally as when price gets to the level I have to watch tick action very carefully and still can miss some entries, and many others will turn sour.

So while I was reading this thread, it reminded me of experience I already had and tools I used with MetaTrader, and much better tools now available for Ninja thanks to great contributors such as FatTails. I realized that I can use this experience together with my new order flow style to improve my entry technique and use SS and paint bars to stay in those swing legs longer.

As I have decided to give it a go in gold next week, I will try to enter using information from paint bars, SS and volume charts instead of time charts. Stop obviously will be flexible in this case, since I will be using 3-tick better renko bars for entries, stop usually will be about 5-9 ticks.

Here is how my setup will look like. I am yet to find out if it will give me less stop outs, but it does look quite good. Instead of 2 minute main decision chart I will use 500 volume chart to compact price action and split these huge 2m bars that gold tends to produce from time to time into several tradable bars.

Follow me to see what results it will bring.


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  #714 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received

Set up my charts today. Tried several configurations until found a decent setup for Dax and Gold. More or less it does not help to enter per se but confirm trade after entry and stay in the trade longer.

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  #715 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received

Slowly tuning in to new charts and adjusting to entering. Weird newsless markets don't help much, but I will prevail.








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  #716 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received

Today's trading was more successful in all instruments: I traded dax, crude and gold. I am getting handy at it.
However the same problem with multiple stop outs stays there. For next two days I will look to also trade off larger scale chart, 800 contracts, with Heiken-Ashi reversals at selected key levels. Stop will likely be 15-30 ticks. Not sure what profitability can be expected yet, but I hope at least 50% as opposed to 20-30% with current micro-stop. I will also look to limit risk very fast.

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  #717 (permalink)
Vizag+india
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Nifty
 
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I find it amazing that you trade multiple instruments.
For me it like shifting gears constantly. I am not made for it.

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  #718 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received


tinkug112 View Post
I find it amazing that you trade multiple instruments.
For me it like shifting gears constantly. I am not made for it.

That's true and this is why I initially concentrated on just gold, to learn it and stay focused on it. I did more or less the same recently with crude. Now the idea is to select a better market to trade. I don't mix trades from different markets in quick succession, I rather select which of two offers better moves and setups and then I follow it, only switching into another one as it slows down and become not interesting. Still, I need to work on risk rules involving trading multiple markets. That was a reason I traded just gold in my first combine - I realized more markets I trade more risk I take and it will likely lead to larger losses and smaller wins, because losses from several markets will compound some days and I will still have to trade smaller size per market and thus wins will be smaller. Solution can be trading a single market per day, this is what I had been doing so far in this combine, or, allow a switch to another market only when profitable for the day but current market does not give any opportunities.

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  #719 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received

I don't feel like I am ready to trade in combine this week. I have made some good progress last week working on improving accuracy, but I am still doing too many trades per setup. This week I will concentrate on taking trades only at designated locations and only in a right direction, i.e. not going against the tide. Last week had some huge moves that showed the whole futility of trying to stop the market.

I will start filling the journal again, as I have pretty much defined trading rules and moving from discovery/incubation phase to forward walk phase.

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  #720 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,565 received


Today 3 trades, very slow and low volume market. I have made a hasty decision on the first trade, that is not shown on charts, shorting from a second high after a very small pullback, level was good for short, but I should have waited for larger pullback indicating selling interest there and I should act on signs of positive order flow and ladder imbalance at highs favoring level break. It did break and slipped my exit.

Two other trades made easy to scale but could not continue on the runner. They returned pretty much the same I had lost on first trade including commissions, so I can could this day as a break even day.






Conclusion - wait for a pullback that can be seen on a higher chart, and keep note of orderflow at these levels. Preferably wait for lower high or higher low before taking a trade and keep stop above that high or below that low, but before day high/low. It may lead to few more stops eventually, but lately HOD and LOD are getting busted with such a violence, slippage on stops might be totally devastating, last friday gold busted my stop for over 120 ticks of slippage on demo. I feel sick imagining what would happen live. So to keep rather safe than sorry, I will go for having a stop before the HOD or LOD or a very major level.

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