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Trading fast markets
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Trading fast markets

  #61 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Pedro40 View Post
At least now you know you could easily pass the 50K Combine and most likely the 100K. So you can relax a bit...

Good work....

Thanks, Pedro. However that was a part of my plan - build up a cushion in a first half of a Combine and start swinging in a second. Now with a 5k in profits I can actually start going for the target profits by adding some size. Still, since I was trading with 4 contracts yesterday I will go to 5 on Monday and my max will be 7 contracts possibly by Wednesday if I make any reasonable profits every day, with one 7-contract scale in. I don't want to swing for the fences yet, still a lot of time to pass this Combine even if I just maintain my current average (need 29 days to pass, or 20 more), but as time passes I need to get that average up. That was a part of the plan from the start. I am thinking to adding that reverse setup I practiced previously, but I need to do quite a bit of research about it viability in Gold and conditions when to use, also need to use different stop loss distance and trade management, but it should give me longer duration winners that I need to improve metrics and get more ticks in on those low volume rangy days especially. I feel positive though. I did hoped to pull it off during the minimal time and technically still can do, but not very likely, need to have 1k winner every day with no losing days till the end. We are heading into the summer so volatility will be dying, also I have some important personal consideration why I don't want to keep it running into the June as well, so I will try to get to the point sooner rather than later.

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  #62 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Hi there. I had reviewed my results so far over the weekend including failed trades. What I have found out is most of these trades never produced any profits, since I protect to BE fairly fast, and most of them hung around break even for some times, and then reversed on me hitting my stop loss. I find it very hard to pull the trigger to close out after some time literally hoping for a continuation my way. I decided to change my stop loss to just 6 ticks, instead of 10 to get stopped sooner and with less damage. My good trades rarely see any downside in most cases so it should limit only my downside. In many cases, after a hung in a drawdown, if my trade finally starts to move into profit I close it at break even anyway, but I believe getting more stop outs at smaller loss will be more beneficial.

Another tweaks:
1. I will remove any setups based on strong candle follow-up, at least for a time being, since market is not offering many continuation moves now, with large candle most often followed by a run on a high or low and then a reversal candle, leading to a quick stop out for me
2. All entries will be based on 2 range chart, not 2m chart. 2M chart will be the only one where I will decided setups (stop run zones), but all trades will be taken from 2 range chart
3. Standard entry will have 6 ticks stop loss and 30 ticks target
4. Scale-in will be done from 2 range chart, based on a swing pull back break, once the first trade is protected to BE or in profit, and the distance is at least 10-15 ticks from previous entry
5. Trade will be closed all-out once either momentum has stalled or a market reverses past previous pullback (stops will be moves there if time allows, or flatten will be used is not)

Risk management stays the same, but I will potentially allow up to 5 losers per day, given that it is still 30 ticks as before, but only allow 3 failed trades before stopping on the day. I.e. I can allow some loser on a scale in as an extra. In general it should decrease my risk per day and allow to increase size more safely.

Today I trade with 5 cars per entry.

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  #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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xelaar View Post
Hi there. I had reviewed my results so far over the weekend including failed trades. What I have found out is most of these trades never produced any profits, since I protect to BE fairly fast, and most of them hung around break even for some times, and then reversed on me hitting my stop loss. I find it very hard to pull the trigger to close out after some time literally hoping for a continuation my way. I decided to change my stop loss to just 6 ticks, instead of 10 to get stopped sooner and with less damage. My good trades rarely see any downside in most cases so it should limit only my downside. In many cases, after a hung in a drawdown, if my trade finally starts to move into profit I close it at break even anyway, but I believe getting more stop outs at smaller loss will be more beneficial.

Another tweaks:
1. I will remove any setups based on strong candle follow-up, at least for a time being, since market is not offering many continuation moves now, with large candle most often followed by a run on a high or low and then a reversal candle, leading to a quick stop out for me
2. All entries will be based on 2 range chart, not 2m chart. 2M chart will be the only one where I will decided setups (stop run zones), but all trades will be taken from 2 range chart
3. Standard entry will have 6 ticks stop loss and 30 ticks target
4. Scale-in will be done from 2 range chart, based on a swing pull back break, once the first trade is protected to BE or in profit, and the distance is at least 10-15 ticks from previous entry
5. Trade will be closed all-out once either momentum has stalled or a market reverses past previous pullback (stops will be moves there if time allows, or flatten will be used is not)

Risk management stays the same, but I will potentially allow up to 5 losers per day, given that it is still 30 ticks as before, but only allow 3 failed trades before stopping on the day. I.e. I can allow some loser on a scale in as an extra. In general it should decrease my risk per day and allow to increase size more safely.

Today I trade with 5 cars per entry.


I apologize for intruding, buy why do you need to change anything with your strategy?

You have traded 9 days, and averaged $558 per day in profits. You need $16,000 in profits, so that means at your current pace you need to trade for 20 more days or so out of a possible 30 trading left in your combine. Unless there is a statistic that will cause you to fail, it looks like your current approach is working just fine.

Personally, I think you are doing great so far - much better than most of the Combine journals here - and I see absolutely no reason to change your approach.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #64 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Thanks, Kevin

I leave intact pretty much part of the setup that made money so far, i.e. stop zone runs. I also recognized that trades that made money did not do much drawdown and were into the profit fast - thus reducing the stop distance. And it will allow me to add more size to my trading - this is what makes better averages and this is what TST wants to see AFAIK. I am in it not for the fun but for the money, this is the reason for taking the most challenging Combine, and I need to utilize whole capacity given to make that money and eventually get more buying power. I am in no way changing my strategy, rather removing underperforming parts, while not adding any untested strategies.


kevinkdog View Post
I apologize for intruding, buy why do you need to change anything with your strategy?

You have traded 9 days, and averaged $558 per day in profits. You need $16,000 in profits, so that means at your current pace you need to trade for 20 more days or so out of a possible 30 trading left in your combine. Unless there is a statistic that will cause you to fail, it looks like your current approach is working just fine.

Personally, I think you are doing great so far - much better than most of the Combine journals here - and I see absolutely no reason to change your approach.


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  #65 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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xelaar View Post
Thanks, Kevin

I leave intact pretty much part of the setup that made money so far, i.e. stop zone runs. I also recognized that trades that made money did not do much drawdown and were into the profit fast - thus reducing the stop distance. And it will allow me to add more size to my trading - this is what makes better averages and this is what TST wants to see AFAIK. I am in it not for the fun but for the money, this is the reason for taking the most challenging Combine, and I need to utilize whole capacity given to make that money and eventually get more buying power. I am in no way changing my strategy, rather removing underperforming parts, while not adding any untested strategies.


I think removing underperforming parts is absolutely changing your strategy. And if you made changes just based on 9 trading days, there probably is not enough data to draw any meaningful conclusion.

I think you are doing great, and I see no reason to change.

Whatever you do, I of course hope your success continues!

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #66 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
I think removing underperforming parts is absolutely changing your strategy. And if you made changes just based on 9 trading days, there probably is not enough data to draw any meaningful conclusion.

I think you are doing great, and I see no reason to change.

Whatever you do, I of course hope your success continues!

Well, I haven't made any profits with these underperforming parts, only several losses, so I do believe this part of strategy is not suitable for the current market. It worked great during my pre-Combine strategy build-up because of high volatility in GOld before the crash and during the crash, now gold is behaving more like Crude and I wouldn't trade that entry type on Crude either. Basically it's one of the setups that did not work so far, I can pretty much leave it in the rule set but not take it because of "low market volatility" condition. Same thing. All setups have some of discretion in them, based on recent market behavior, volume and volatility.

I understand your thinking and statistical approach, but I also recognize that market is changing quite a lot on an everyday basis. Over the long term your approach should be the best (although market can change and stay in a different condition for years), in a short term what Combine is, I believe one should adapt swiftly to everyday's changes. Still I reserve the right to review things only over the weekend and never during the week.

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  #67 (permalink)
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Day 10

A rather uneventful day. No news and volume the lowest during my Combine time. Less than 40% of the average. Well, no news and a slow Monday. I started with a test trade, wanted to see what sort of action a buy sell buttons will do on contract ticket, apparently they are only bid and ask buttons, so can place limit orders with them or if the tick value set to negative it will buy or sell at market with slippage limited to the number of ticks set. Can be useful on fast market for partial exit if needed. Not possible to place a stop market order with it.

I took 5 tick winner and then 6 tick loser. Glad I moved to 6 ticks, otherwise 10 would be lost. No chance there, immediate retreat. And then a larger move up, missed one setup due to typing in TST chat but managed a second one. Only took 10 ticks on it, and that was pretty much all that was on table. I decided to call it a day, modest winning day is a good result for a market like that.

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  #68 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Weekend audits and tweaks are an essential part of consistently acclimating to market conditions as well as improving ones edge IMO.

keep up the good work brother

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  #69 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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FXwulf View Post
Weekend audits and tweaks are an essential part of consistently acclimating to market conditions as well as improving ones edge IMO.

keep up the good work brother


If it works for you, more power to you. Don't change a process that yields good results.

My personal experience with constant tinkering is that I was constantly chasing good performance, always just one step behind ("if only I had done this, I'd be really profitable"). I had the illusion of doing well, since my current system looked great looking backwards. Yet, going forward I was usually one day late, one dollar short.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #70 (permalink)
Elite Member
prague, czech republic
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: LMAX
Favorite Futures: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
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kevinkdog View Post
If it works for you, more power to you. Don't change a process that yields good results.

My personal experience with constant tinkering is that I was constantly chasing good performance, always just one step behind ("if only I had done this, I'd be really profitable"). I had the illusion of doing well, since my current system looked great looking backwards. Yet, going forward I was usually one day late, one dollar short.

Kevin I think you are right in your approach but it seems you are dealing mostly with mechanical or even automated systems. With systems that apply discretion it is a constant adaptation process. Rules written dont describe any intricases appkied when taking setup or closing a trade. In my case taking setup 1 only applies to very volatile market with sustained continued move on high volume. We dont those right now which is normal after huge moves like we had recently. So technically I no changing rules About 6 ticks stop yes but this all pretty much work in progress. If I get too much stop outs and can see 10 ticks would save me good trades that run into profit I will revert to 10. Adapt.

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