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Trading fast markets
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Created: by xelaar Attachments:517

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Trading fast markets

  #41 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
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xelaar View Post
ruined stats,

That is not a ruined stats, you are allowed to have 1 parameter red. It would be more difficult to fix if it was 5 mins average loser duration, but if you throw in 1 losing trade with 0 SL, that brings it down by 3 seconds (you have 9 losers with 29 secs average time), so about 2 planned losers would fix the problem.

But let's keep that until the end, shall we?

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  #42 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
That is not a ruined stats, you are allowed to have 1 parameter red. It would be more difficult to fix if it was 5 mins average loser duration, but if you throw in 1 losing trade with 0 SL, that brings it down by 3 seconds (you have 9 losers with 29 secs average time), so about 2 planned losers would fix the problem.

But let's keep that until the end, shall we?

Pedro, you are right, but it so much nicer to have all greens and no single losing day during Combine. It's just me showing off, I guess! Today I will go for the profit, not for the green lights.

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  #43 (permalink)
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xelaar View Post
Frustration today. No, the market is actually alright but I act like a scared chicken. I think I fell victim of statistics and record observation. I just don't want to get a losing day and I lose in unrealized gains.

.
.
.
I let go 150 ticks of profit today to save just 10. This is criminal.

Currently +25 net on the day, ridiculous I know. And stats screwed again. Need let winners run.



xelaar View Post

PS I think I drive too much conclusions from just one break even day. Still +50 past commissions, so probably better keep that way and not think about stats. Tomorrow is another day and I will see what is the best way to trade.


My exact afflictions during my current combine.

How many times have I reminded myself that trading well is the process and good statistics are the product of the process.

Producing good statistics cannot and should not be a process.

But then I find myself playing peek-a-boo with statistics. Green. Red. And then letting them cloud my judgement.

A point comes when good trading will blow everything out of the water and that is being in 'the zone' for me. I am hoping that materializes in the last few days I have left of this combine.

Trade well @xelaar!


Last edited by iqgod; April 24th, 2013 at 04:17 AM. Reason: Type xeelar -> xelaar
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  #44 (permalink)
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iqgod View Post
My exact afflictions during my current combine.

How many times have I reminded myself that trading well is the process and good statistics are the product of the process.

Producing good statistics cannot and should not be a process.

But then I find myself playing peek-a-boo with statistics. Green. Red. And then letting them cloud my judgement.

A point comes when good trading will blow everything out of the water and that is being in 'the zone' for me. I am hoping that materializes in the last few days I have left of this combine.

Trade well @xeelar!

Thanks, man. Sometimes in a moment of blindness form replaces substance. Same happens in my live trading when I get to a winning streak. I stop thinking about profit just about maintaining the record. I think the cure can be to set a moderate and easily achievable profit target for the day, and instead of going for positive day try to get to the minimal profit level maintaining risk parameters.

Alex

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  #45 (permalink)
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Day 7

Man promised, man delivered! Ok, enough with cockiness but I concentrated on profits today, even if price action was not supportive and volume VERY LOW, by the Comex open we traded only 70k contracts, normally 120-150. I had a very clear stop run opportunity and took it with two entries. Bailed fast as could see too fast initial move and no follow up. It was a good decision. Another setup - I missed it by 5 seconds, it ran away from me and I ain't chasing it. Tried to long off the channel low based on momentum candle and clear pathway up from order flow perspective (no swings on move down therefore unlikely much limit sell orders on the way) but it did not work, made two attempts to go lower and I bailed at +2. Eventually pulled off up but not my cup of tea. Good day overall.

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Worked a bit on my excel sheet with all trade record, fixed few errors in win rate calc, formatted cells and improved visuals.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Here is what I wrote in the TST room reasoning my order flow stop run entry:


Quoting 
We had a classic stop run on triple top printed earlier today. I traded it. it reversed fast, normally it means someone was accumulating large short position through triggering early shorters stop against his sell limit orders.

Naturally once filled he started to move market down and some jump on bandwagon, classic trap against tech traders, watch out for another trap against long traders to unload that short. I.e. stop run on lows perhaps 14184, dip below, reverse and continue up.

I realized three attempts to move higher that failed would lead to stop cluster above it and once tripped it will cause a surge of order flow that can be traded with very high probability.


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  #47 (permalink)
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  #48 (permalink)
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Day 8 - bad one

Understandably this day should come at some point and end my nice little winning streak. Today started on extremely low volume, less than previous day and arrived to the Comex open on little over 60k or so. Very very low. Moves were unsustainable and made spikes and wicks all over the chart. I started off with 1 car testing a new twist to the same strategy, the twist was valuable but market wasn't good for it and stopped me out several times on chop. Big moves before Comex open and before Unempl. news but even if candle look good, the price action wasn't it was spiking and retreating and spiking again. After things settle I tried few setup but none was working well. The only winners I took were short scalps for 3-4 ticks before market was always falling back after the fill. I should have stopped there when went into the small profit but I hoped things will pick up. They did not. Another nice looking setups that did not work. Last trade was a thing of my desperation and was destined to lose.

This is my first losing day in the Combine, I stopped after 3 full stop losers and ahead of my personal stop loss. My net loss is 1220 usd for the day. In a sense it is a good day, except that bad last trade I did trade well on setups but should have the willpower to stop when went slightly positive earlier. But it demonstrated me that I should let winners run otherwise I will not overcome losers when they come. Now the losers came and winners must follow. I will look into letting winners run for the rest of Combine as I am done with "going for a record" thing and now must simply deliver results, not badges.

I had some nice markings on the chart explaining zones and trades but T4 apparently wants to punish me and when loaded again they all gone. So be it.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Last stats.
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Today I trade with 4 cars as per plan. If volume and price action support it I will go for larger profits.

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  #50 (permalink)
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