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Trading fast markets


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Trading fast markets

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  #411 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received


pilotui View Post
So think or swim shows CLQ3 as the active contract now...when does TST/T4 switch to Aug (Q3)?

Thanks

Hey, volume in gold switched to August something like 2 weeks ago, it has nothing to do with platform or firm. Your platform may switched you because June went into delivery, but you should move yourself long before that.

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  #412 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received

Traded a hell lot on practice today. Since volume was bad again and hardly any orderly trading was expected I was shooting different trade ideas from the hip. 35 trades or so. Some good, some bad and some evil. Obviously down a lot and long series of losing trades. Low volume day obviously exaggerated it a lot, but it is a good thing: too good day may get you into believing that inferior setups work better than their average expectation. Sure, setups did work today too, but generated sequences of losses that would be insane to trade live with even if a good winner would pay off a large chunk of it. Scalping gold with a small stop is not a viable option, something I have proven for myself today. So I can put a stop finally on streaks of trade ideas I am having all the time. For me gold is great to trade with momentum when present, but pretty much nothing else. When gold is not moving fast it is largely chaotic, and while it is still possible to trade it will require a larger stop loss to sustain chaotic ticking up and down. This makes bringing to break even very hard with gold - you get stopped by the weird tick and then it moves away. So the best to trade gold is when it is moving unidirectionally. Then it is most orderly and entries and stops make more sense. Avoid any areas when it stops and just hang in there. Better to bail at BE, it gives opportunities to bail often enough. It should move fast or bail.

So this is something I will practice starting tomorrow:
1. My main setup, look to improve entry and fill given the good order flow, or fade the level if order flow is weak on approaching
2. Mark the key levels, after they worked and price is through, look to fade price action it these points, assuming order flow is not strong on approach, and that level significance is reinforced with mean-reverting pressure, so the best entries are coming from price action spiking through the keltner channel (or BB or something similar, based on statistical distribution)
3. Fade price on VWAP like given that market has a bias and VWAP is skewed from the VPOC, so the volume area is skewed towards market direction, in this case VWAP fade can get me in for the huge ride, check if 10 ticks stop will be better. Risk reward can be 10:1 on a trade like this. Also run few weeks worth of charts checking possible historic VWAP setups and what stops were working. Consider using up to 20 ticks stop for initial entry. Adding to the position can be done at breaking through the key level.

This is 3 simple ideas, I need to work them out to perfection. Rinse and repeat.

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  #413 (permalink)
Oklahoma City OK/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Broker: Tradeovate
Trading: NQ/ES/NG
 
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Posts: 120 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 118 given, 115 received


So this time every month (around rollover) is really slow like this? It's amazing how some days CL can wave around like a rollercoaster and then perform like today. SO SLOW...

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  #414 (permalink)
Detroit, Michigan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 299 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 488 given, 286 received

Although I'm certainly in no position to critique your trading as you are much more advanced than I, but just a thought on your comments:

I've learned (too much) to just not trade the market if it is (or I am) not ideal, but it definitely has turned into under trading - looking for balance now.

Why? I picked up too many bad habits trading too loose (SIM or live).

So far my tightness has improved my overall results but now need to add a little looseness slowly if that makes sense.


xelaar View Post
Traded a hell lot on practice today. Since volume was bad again and hardly any orderly trading was expected I was shooting different trade ideas from the hip. 35 trades or so. Some good, some bad and some evil. Obviously down a lot and long series of losing trades. Low volume day obviously exaggerated it a lot, but it is a good thing: too good day may get you into believing that inferior setups work better than their average expectation. Sure, setups did work today too, but generated sequences of losses that would be insane to trade live with even if a good winner would pay off a large chunk of it. Scalping gold with a small stop is not a viable option, something I have proven for myself today. So I can put a stop finally on streaks of trade ideas I am having all the time. For me gold is great to trade with momentum when present, but pretty much nothing else. When gold is not moving fast it is largely chaotic, and while it is still possible to trade it will require a larger stop loss to sustain chaotic ticking up and down. This makes bringing to break even very hard with gold - you get stopped by the weird tick and then it moves away. So the best to trade gold is when it is moving unidirectionally. Then it is most orderly and entries and stops make more sense. Avoid any areas when it stops and just hang in there. Better to bail at BE, it gives opportunities to bail often enough. It should move fast or bail.

So this is something I will practice starting tomorrow:
1. My main setup, look to improve entry and fill given the good order flow, or fade the level if order flow is weak on approaching
2. Mark the key levels, after they worked and price is through, look to fade price action it these points, assuming order flow is not strong on approach, and that level significance is reinforced with mean-reverting pressure, so the best entries are coming from price action spiking through the keltner channel (or BB or something similar, based on statistical distribution)
3. Fade price on VWAP like given that market has a bias and VWAP is skewed from the VPOC, so the volume area is skewed towards market direction, in this case VWAP fade can get me in for the huge ride, check if 10 ticks stop will be better. Risk reward can be 10:1 on a trade like this. Also run few weeks worth of charts checking possible historic VWAP setups and what stops were working. Consider using up to 20 ticks stop for initial entry. Adding to the position can be done at breaking through the key level.

This is 3 simple ideas, I need to work them out to perfection. Rinse and repeat.


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  #415 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received


TrendTraderBH View Post
Although I'm certainly in no position to critique your trading as you are much more advanced than I, but just a thought on your comments:

I've learned (too much) to just not trade the market if it is (or I am) not ideal, but it definitely has turned into under trading - looking for balance now.

Why? I picked up too many bad habits trading too loose (SIM or live).

So far my tightness has improved my overall results but now need to add a little looseness slowly if that makes sense.

Well, I agree with you, it's a bad idea to trade loose and shoot from the hip for any prolonged period, but to filter out and know what not to do one has to try it first. It's all different when you look at charts backwards and trading it real time demo or live. Some setups that look great on chart are very difficult to catch real time, and you may start loosening it up to finally catch one and lose as a result. I look for high probability setups with high risk reward that don't appear that much to induce over trading or generate long series of losers.

I have those for decent volume days but they suck in dead market like we have now in gold. I would trade ES instead but I won't be allowed to trade it live until I build a cushion or at least convince them I can do something else too by having a decent profit. So I focus on immediate problem.

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  #416 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received

Knowing it's FOMC day and it likely to be rangy and quiet I practiced on range trading. I think I am for too much perfection, 3 ticks stops on gold did not work for me because entry was almost always off by 1-2 ticks

5 ticks would make nice winners for 10-15 tix or more each. 20 ticks stops on retest daily high low were working fine too.

I am slowly building a trading plan that includes separate trading profiles for low-volume low-volatility range days and high-volume days that can turn trendy. I assume every day as rangy until I see some volume and momentum moves to give it a potential to generate a trend.







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  #417 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
xelaar's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received

As a result of last 3 days of trading I can dismiss for now setup with fading the key level after it was invalidated. It gave some potential before but can generate too much losses in a row.

I also will adjust my stop to 5 ticks for a fading setup - both levels and VWAP.

I will look into getting historical confirmation for fading retest of daily high/low with larger stop, currently 20 ticks sounds max I would do, maybe can be done with less.

Mean-reverting setup - I will continue to test it with 5 tick stop for now, instead of 3 ticks.

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  #418 (permalink)
WA Europe
 
Experience: None
Platform: Various
Trading: FUTURES
 
Posts: 123 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 44 given, 53 received

Hi,
First thanks for the nice journal.
Can you please explain how you choose the area where you put your Entries?
Did you test this method for other market?
Volatility is a key in your trading, how can determine if the volatility is good to execute a trade?
Thanks in advance and happy trading day
Adam ribica

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  #419 (permalink)
Miami Beach, FL, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Trading: ES, YM, NQ, TF, 6A, 6B, 6C, 6E 6J
 
Posts: 12 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 236 given, 14 received

Excellent journal Xelaar,

Thank you for sharing this journal. I respect it because it is qualified and vetted by a second party, Top Step Trader Combine. I wonder if Al Brooks could do this Combine as you have done it? I wonder if some of the other "BM webinar Guru's" will step up and earn respect as you have done? I am hopeful that your journal will bring a new insistency of complete performance transparency among us traders.

Question, this blog you have posted is a book in English, and very well written, as English is not your first language. You race motorcycles, as you mentioned in this journal. I think that speaking in several languages and putting yourself "out there" in a motorcycle race has given you an ability to speak the markets language and to trade instinctively? Please comment on your mental confidence when trading gold, racing bikes or speaking a foreign language?

Sorry if this sounds corny, but I believe that successful traders have to succeed at many other endeavors in life.

Warm regards to your new family, donzi

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  #420 (permalink)
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
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Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
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donzi View Post
Question, this blog you have posted is a book in English, and very well written, as English is not your first language. You race motorcycles, as you mentioned in this journal. I think that speaking in several languages and putting yourself "out there" in a motorcycle race has given you an ability to speak the markets language and to trade instinctively? Please comment on your mental confidence when trading gold, racing bikes or speaking a foreign language?

Sorry if this sounds corny, but I believe that successful traders have to succeed at many other endeavors in life.

Hi Donzi
I agree with you and so what if it sounds corny? Like in trading, if it's true, it doesn't matter if it's corny. In English, this phenomenon you talk about is called 'mastery'. If you know how to master one thing, you know how to master anything.

There is a legend from Japan about a tea merchant who was challenged to a duel by a samurai.


Quoting 
A master of the tea ceremony in old Japan once accidentally slighted a soldier. He quickly apologized, but the rather impetuous soldier demanded that the matter be settled in a sword duel. The tea master, who had no experience with swords, asked the advice of a fellow Zen master who did possess such skill.

As he was served by his friend, the Zen swordsman could not help but notice how the tea master performed his art with perfect concentration and tranquility. "Tomorrow," the Zen swordsman said, "when you duel the soldier, hold your weapon above your head, as if ready to strike, and face him with the same concentration and tranquility with which you perform the tea ceremony."

The next day, at the appointed time and place for the duel, the tea master followed this advice. The soldier, readying himself to strike, stared for a long time into the fully attentive but calm face of the tea master. Finally, the soldier lowered his sword, apologized for his arrogance, and left without a blow being struck.

Sorry I couldn't help but answer, however I will let xelaar answer his question now.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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