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Trading fast markets

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  #901 (permalink)
 Mtype 
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xelaar View Post
I will also introduce some punishments for not following the rules. Like having to run 10 miles no matter how shitty the weather is. And no eating any sweets for a week.

What has been working for me is that I only allow myself to watch the market for a day if I violate my rules for two consecutive days. That is a serious punishment sitting there but not having the ability to fire.

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  #902 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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What has been working for me is that I only allow myself to watch the market for a day if I violate my rules for two consecutive days. That is a serious punishment sitting there but not having the ability to fire.

Makes a good sense, but depends on the style of your trading. I have realized my monthly target can be made by 3 good days per month. That's it. Most of the days are more or less threading water. Big days come from big moves. You can't squeeze 100 ticks out of 60 ticks range, this is plain silly or you must be a god-like trader. But you can get 40-50 out of 100 tick move for sure. With two entries and second trade reusing the equities from the first trade, you can get 90 ticks or so. So my plan is to mostly sit on my hands if market chops like yesterday and today. Unless market moves directionally OR it produces very well defined top or bottom where I can enter with a razor thin stop and re-enter several times if needed.

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  #903 (permalink)
Pedro40
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So Alex, when are you going to start the blog?

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  #904 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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So Alex, when are you going to start the blog?

Should I start a separate site, or a new thread at futures.io (formerly BMT) or just blablab here? I am not decided yet.

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  #905 (permalink)
Pedro40
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I think you should start a blog (so you can link people in the future to it easily, even months or years from now) what would be dedicated to your goal.

But you can mention the stepstones here, when you reach an important part. And you can still keep blabbing here, but the blog would be strictly (and professionally) for the goal....

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  #906 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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After much deliberation, I have decided to simply continue the old blog I once had for years as a forex trader. I will show my roots and my journey as a trader to anyone interested. I have made an introductory post explaining my project.

Order flow pirate's journal: A NEW BEGINNING

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  #907 (permalink)
 vijidas 
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xelaar View Post
After much deliberation, I have decided to simply continue the old blog I once had for years as a forex trader. I will show my roots and my journey as a trader to anyone interested. I have made an introductory post explaining my project.

Order flow pirate's journal: A NEW BEGINNING

Just read your blog. It's great!
All the best with live trading.
May I know which broker are you going to use for DAX trading?
What's the required margin for each DAX contract?
What sort of commission are they charging for each DAX contract?

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  #908 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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vijidas View Post
Just read your blog. It's great!
All the best with live trading.
May I know which broker are you going to use for DAX trading?
What's the required margin for each DAX contract?
What sort of commission are they charging for each DAX contract?

Thanks, just sign up for updates! )

I use AMP with CQG, optional subscription for EUREX (23 eur a month). Intraday margin for DAX is 3500 usd with AMP. Commission is pretty standard, around 5 bucks per round.

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  #909 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Made a new post to my blog. Check it out.

Order flow pirate's journal: Flexing muscles

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  #910 (permalink)
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  #911 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Just once I did that and police is here

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  #912 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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xelaar View Post
The entry location is different, but the philosophy of the trade is the same, it's momentum, it's strong level and tape/orderflow entry. What is different is I am taking a pullback entry instead of break out entry towards the level. I have been writing even during the first combine I would like to work on the entry as my original style is a subject to a possible massive slippage. So I did. More to this, markets change and gold does not behave anywhere close anymore to the spring and early autumn patterns. I think this is due to lack of participation, much less short term players and not anymore stop clusters past highs and lows like it was before. It might change back again but for now break out entry is a totally losing proposition.

Funny you say this because I've been finding the same observation. The fast moving instruments (cl, gc, fdax) move with a lot of pull backs back through s/r making an entry on breakout tough to manage especially with any sort of trailing or discretionary moving stop when momentum builds up. It's still possible, just rare. Russell 2000 moves a little more continuous in one direction on break outs but I don't know if that's because it's in some sort of seasonal cycle. I continue to watch all of them to be versatile.

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  #913 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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It's been some time since I posted last time. We have moved to Santa Cruz de Tenerife for 3 months to survive the winter which is horrible back there at home, and try living in Spain and see how we like it. So it took me out from trading for a week as I were setting things up, getting internet access and things, organized VPS server. But I did trade demo for a while.

Eventually I have skimmed down on my trading tools going back to bare minimum to reduce demand on internet throughput and I wasn't using all things anyway.

Effectively I have started to trade live only last week. I did so far 4 trades during 4 days in FDAX.



First trade I took immediately went against me running level's stops, I did chicken out and moved take profit to entry, reasoning if it comes back I will get out. It did come back, took me out for zero and then run to my planned target. It was a classic stop run reversal and I should have held.



My second trade was bit late, into lunch time. Market already made a trend leg up, it was fast and I did not enter on break out entries. It did come to the high with force and entry looked good, but was bit premature. It fell back against me and held there for quite some time nearly stopping me out few time. Then some bulls came in, made a run up, at some point bringing me up to 20 tick profit. I failed to act, expecting a sustained break. But it turned to be a stop run. I was waiting on a retest of entry and some reaction but it fell like a rock and stopped me out for -15 ticks.



Yesterday we had some movement in European session but much wasn't expected due to lack of US flows. I managed to get an excellent entry, but got out thinking on another run down. Exit was bit too late, I should have gotten out on a stall of an impulse up and then re-entered at a better price once it stops moving down. But I did not act on a second part. Ended up with +8 ticks but trade eventually gave whole target of 60.



Today was a quite touch start. It managed some sort of a down move but with a lot of buying back effectively turning it into a volatile range. I stood out of market just watching. After hours of waiting and end of a lunch time, it managed to come back to the upper range level and printed a breakout pattern, consolidating there. I took a trade, it only went 3 ticks against me but it stood there for a while unable to break it. I was thinking of getting out as it was getting too long of no action. But then it broke up, took out yesterday high. Then it started to pullback and I acted fast getting out. It did ended up being a stop run reversal. Then it gave another setup, short now, but I wasn't keen on taking shorts plus US session was nearing. This second possible trade could be the best trade of the day.

End result: +29 ticks.

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  #914 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Weekly roundup
It's been a productive and bit emotional week. I have finally gone live last Friday and ended a day with a loss of 15 ticks, done one trade. (190) euros from my live account.

This week had slow Monday being a Presidents day in US, but DAX was trading even if rather slow. I did one trade.


Took a fast catch of a flying knife at the good confirmed level on expected stop run past earlier lows. My mistake was scalping my way out for just 8 ticks and not re-entering on another test. It was a trade of the day I failed to exercise properly.

Tuesday gave some more buzz.


However, I also did one trade only.

Wednesday was a day of disappointment. I have realized I took Monday and Tuesday trades on demo, rather than on a real account. I have got frustrated and started to doubt myself and took no trades.

I can back strong on Thursday, reinforced and reinvigorated.


I took 39 ticks home in two trades, 550 euro into my real account.

Friday was good and bad too.


My first trade was just excellent, 3 ticks draw-down and a run was good for 140 ticks. But I screwed it badly. Again. And not retaken. Again. I protected the trade too fast and got stopped out for +1 tick in 30 seconds. Then I spent 20 ticks trying to catch up onto a long. Second trade was a cheap attempt that failed, it was ok. Third trade was a dumb one. And last trade was a mistake on my part. I knew it was an expiration day but did not realize DAX options expire at 1 PM CET time, so it got hit by the liquidation of long position collected by option sellers protecting the low the gave me the first great trade I failed to collect on.

Gave back 19 ticks or 237 euros. Still finish week positive and my total balance is about +50 euros.

However I have learned a lot and will dedicated a special post to it.

Check out my blog for the screenshots and follow ups.

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  #915 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Aaaaah time's flying fast. Markets change a lot. We - get older.

I am back afresh ready to continue my postings and self-analysis perhaps (not really LOL), and ideas how to improve.

It's been tough half year for me, not blown any accounts (screw you those who wished I did), but nevertheless experienced all sorts of style drifts and emotions you can find in any book. Psychology is no 1 problem for me, but it is not helping that market is really flipping through different characters every week. We are at ATH and summer is out there so no wonder. But good time to concentrate on following the plan and hardening the discipline.

I do have a new style of trading, down to the core it is still the same - momentum following, but now due to not so gracious markets like back in autumn and first quarter of the year, it's on a shorter scale, smaller risk and targets, and new edge with timing signalling. But end in end it is still following the momentum and trying to get on for an impulse ride.

I will start posting charts tomorrow, I will be musing in my new trading log book, I will review the whole day of price action and will post a very short summary and 1-2 action points.

Cheers!

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  #916 (permalink)
 Daytrader999 
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So welcome back @xelaar, good to have you back here on futures.io (formerly BMT) !

"If you don't design your own life plan, chances are you'll fall into someone else's plan. And guess what they have planned for you? Not much." - Jim Rohn
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  #917 (permalink)
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Welcome back @xelaar.

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  #918 (permalink)
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Just keep going and going, keep learning and don't be afraid to dump your method and start from scratch if your method doesn't suite current market conditions.


I'm a DAX trader to, most of the time your better off playing chop/range these days as you say it's kinda slow ( not today ), then hoping to be on the right side of a nice breakout cause there too fast for me.

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  #919 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Just a little bit of a hint into how I trade DAX nowadays.




I did miss few trades, there would be a runner in that first impulse and a couple of good trades too. I have several issues to fight, focus on a right direction, take ALL trades system gives.

I plan to again run a combine simulation for 10 days, take all trades stricktly by the plan and judge results afterwards. Market is tough, so no big problem not to trade live for a couple of weeks more, but if I manage to stay afloat by taking all planned trades in these markets - then I will have a good confidence in my system and my execution of it to move back to live trading.

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  #920 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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FDAX IMPULSE TRADING PLAN

a. Plot levels from 30 minutes
b. Trading channel – Donchian channel set for 20 minutes period
c. Trade direction – in the direction of the last impulse
d. Impulse filter – at least 3 strong bars in the same direction without strong bars in the other direction between them
e. Entry types – pullbacks and breakouts
f. Entry locations for the pullbacks – the other side of the DC, which followed price action (price did not race back to the other side, creating opposing impulse), under EMA 8 for shorts, above EMA 8 for longs
g. Entry locations for breakouts – either continuation of the move expecting a new impulse, consolidating on DC and pushing it, or, in case last impulse reversed the previous move, a consolidation between EMA 8 and EMA 21, pushing one side in the direction of the last impulse

1. Do not trade until volume is less than 90% than 8 weeks average
2. Do not trade until there is an impulse present
3. Do not trade if there is more than 30 minutes expired since the close of the last strong bar
4. Ignore any inside bar as signals for entry or exit if they don’t compliment previous local hi or low in the direction of the last impulse (i.e. disregard reversing signals on inside bars)

I. Risk – 2 contracts by 2.5 pts risk each, 5 pts per trade
II. Target – 1st contract 5 pts, second contract 15 pts
III. Trade exit – opposite signal, large pin bar in the direction of a trade, new strong level, EMA + Hi/Lo, VWAP+EMA, WVAP+Hi/Lo
IV. Allow 2 trades per impulse, i.e. stop trading after 2 losses per impulse, wait for a new impulse
V. Stop trading for a day after 3x2 losing trades, i.e. 6 losses totaling to 30 pts (plus slippage and commissions)

X. Entry signal – proprietary, enter with a limit after the signal bar closed, to be filled on pullback

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  #921 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Only one trade today. Day started off with low volume, I did not plan to trade but then some momentum up came through and I took one. It worked to the full potential. Then it just chopped. My friend came by and off we went for a lunch and then to the park to practice roller blades for two hours. With a great pain in my feet back I came and found out nothing was missed!





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  #922 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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There is another thing I am doing as well, I started to get back to forex trading, taking trades on level consolidations, using 1h charts and multiple of instruments including crosses and exotics, in order to find decent opportunities.

I think it won't hurt if I will publish my trades here. I plan to later add commodities as well trading those through CDF's as my broker plans to get them live very soon.




I will be keeping journal on these trades too, and run weekly/monthly stats on them. I trade them live but small risk. Generally it is about 3 trades a week so stats will come along slowly, but these trades are easier to research and run on history and I traded like that before so I plan to start racking up volume pretty soon. Most important for me is to stop trying to fade trends and look to stay with the main move, that was the only problem before, I was fine with entries and stops, not over trading but was choosing wrong direction all the time.

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  #923 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Here is another example of two trades I did recently, this time on USD/ZAR, dollar versus rand.




First trade was a loser, 25 pips or so, looks ok but the issue there was I had failed to notice we had build quite a rejection down below on the support, so the move from the resistance to the support did not have any profit potential plus so many failed attempts to break support signalled a possible turn. I should have waited for price to break the support and then come back to one of the levels, either lower one or next higher where I did trade, but only after the break.

Second trade was a classic, impulse, consolidation, continuation. My target was around 90 pips profit but after some struggle I had lowered it to 80+ and took profit. Still trade produced 2.5 reward to risk.

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 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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3 trades yesterday. Low volume, no fun market, but still practice makes perfect. I only took trades until there was a hope for a continuation. Later it became clear market won't move anywhere.

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  #925 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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The market is incredibly boring and weird. I can't force myself to focus during hours of no movement and then sudden 5-10 minutes moves that are followed by hours of tight ranges with ticks coming once 10-20 seconds. It not worth it to spend any time on.

I still look but probably will just analyze past charts and see how system perform when execution is ideal.

Other than that, I will focus on daily charts for fx and metals. Maybe I will see to add few CFDs too.

Going forward I think it is a time to close this thread, its been a long run and its original idea is long fulfilled. I might open another thread to develop and improve my live trading and discipline showing my system in details too, but it will be in the elite members area.

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  #926 (permalink)
 iqgod 
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Hi,

It has been a pleasure to follow this thread.

You have been the first person whom we were able to follow from start to finish in a TopStepTrader combine with a blow-by-blow account.

You were the first order flow trader that I could study.

You were an inspiration.

You stay in a fabulous place, and always help out when needed.

I will always appreciate this journal, and take a peek at it time and again in case it closes down.

Which I hope it doesn't.

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  #927 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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iqgod View Post
Hi,

It has been a pleasure to follow this thread.

You have been the first person whom we were able to follow from start to finish in a TopStepTrader combine with a blow-by-blow account.

You were the first order flow trader that I could study.

You were an inspiration.

You stay in a fabulous place, and always help out when needed.

I will always appreciate this journal, and take a peek at it time and again in case it closes down.

Which I hope it doesn't.

I quite agree.

It's your choice, @xelaar, of course, but it has been a good one, including all the ups and downs.

Bob.

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 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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@iqgod, @bobwest
Thanks guys, it's really touching! It's not that I want to close the thread to severe all ties, it's just that I don't find what I do now interesting enough to post. I do feel like I am bit in a limbo, having done much I am still nowhere in regards to the real progress in trading. Maybe I have a need for motivation and encouragement, but it's only me who can give it to myself. Maybe it will change soon and maybe I will get another round of inspiration. I am grateful to the following and to @Big Mike for this great place to be.

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 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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I do feel like I strongly need a purpose in my trading besides making money. It's a very lonely and not gratifying experience to be trading alone. Some people start teaching programs, but we always questions them, are they real traders and if such how can they manage to do what they do alongside trading? Well, I have experience in programming, web site development, blogging, and a very little bit of marketing (only dabbed a little to understand this is not mine). Enough to know this all takes incredible amount of time and effort to support. So I can hardly imagine any active trader doing it. This is not to say all mentors and teachers are fake, it's just those to teach actively can't actively trade. Maybe they were good traders and decided to move on. Nothing wrong with that.

Anyway, I want to make money trading, not teaching. Besides, I don't have a nice track record in terms of years of steady trading and returns to support my position. Well, I don't know much teachers (if any) who does that, but I would want to do that if I were teaching. Running the infrastructure is a nightmare in itself, unless you have a team you have to pay to for the luxury of their support. So this is out of question.

The only option that remains is to form some kind of non-commercial group who would be interested to trade is the same of very similar style same products at same time and communicate using TeamSpeak or something like that. Like a self-help group of sorts. So let me know what you think, if it is a crazy idea or not, born dead or alive. Yours truly, Alec

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  #930 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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xelaar View Post
I do feel like I strongly need a purpose in my trading besides making money. It's a very lonely and not gratifying experience to be trading alone.

I understand, and I hope you find a solution (I hope I find one for myself, too! )

Just for myself, your idea of a group of traders working together would not fit me. I really am too much a person who wants to go it alone. (So, of course, I have no real right to complain about being alone.... Catch-22.)

Hope you find your answer....

Good luck with it.

Bob.

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 Itchymoku 
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xelaar View Post
I do feel like I strongly need a purpose in my trading besides making money. It's a very lonely and not gratifying experience to be trading alone. Some people start teaching programs, but we always questions them, are they real traders and if such how can they manage to do what they do alongside trading? Well, I have experience in programming, web site development, blogging, and a very little bit of marketing (only dabbed a little to understand this is not mine). Enough to know this all takes incredible amount of time and effort to support. So I can hardly imagine any active trader doing it. This is not to say all mentors and teachers are fake, it's just those to teach actively can't actively trade. Maybe they were good traders and decided to move on. Nothing wrong with that.

Anyway, I want to make money trading, not teaching. Besides, I don't have a nice track record in terms of years of steady trading and returns to support my position. Well, I don't know much teachers (if any) who does that, but I would want to do that if I were teaching. Running the infrastructure is a nightmare in itself, unless you have a team you have to pay to for the luxury of their support. So this is out of question.

The only option that remains is to form some kind of non-commercial group who would be interested to trade is the same of very similar style same products at same time and communicate using TeamSpeak or something like that. Like a self-help group of sorts. So let me know what you think, if it is a crazy idea or not, born dead or alive. Yours truly, Alec

Conference calls help a lot, even chatting via text. I'm not sure if you have any group meets relating to trading but it's always good to meet traders who live close by. The thing with trading though is that most people have very specific and unique ways they trade so it maybe hard to get in-depth conversation but at least you have someone who isn't bewildered with the lingo like non-traders lol.

You could become a travel agent with all your traveling, but the pay is modest. There are so many opportunities if you're good with blogging, web development, and marketing that you could even do a travel blog/forum if you have a lot of pictures and videos. There's always a niche to be found. The catch with blogs and internet related businesses is usually they need a lot of work and take time to get going to the point you're making substantial amounts of money. I know this one kid who was a teenager when he started his and it took years until he started making thousands a month. Here's an interview he did about his career starting homesoftherich.net https://www.lionspire.com/business/interview-luxurious-millionaire-mansion-blogger

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  #932 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Itchymoku View Post
Conference calls help a lot, even chatting via text. I'm not sure if you have any group meets relating to trading but it's always good to meet traders who live close by. The thing with trading though is that most people have very specific and unique ways they trade so it maybe hard to get in-depth conversation but at least you have someone who isn't bewildered with the lingo like non-traders lol.

You could become a travel agent with all your traveling, but the pay is modest. There are so many opportunities if you're good with blogging, web development, and marketing that you could even do a travel blog/forum if you have a lot of pictures and videos. There's always a niche to be found. The catch with blogs and internet related businesses is usually they need a lot of work and take time to get going to the point you're making substantial amounts of money. I know this one kid who was a teenager when he started his and it took years until he started making thousands a month. Here's an interview he did about his career starting homesoftherich.net Interview with Luxurious Millionaire Mansion Blogger | Lionspire


Thanks, man. I think I might just try to start blogging again, about both trading and travelling. But I would have to stick to the most broad posts about trading, not to make it too technical or boring blog. Maybe I will leave technicals and charts for the futures.io (formerly BMT) )

I will post some pictures into Europe living thread.

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  #933 (permalink)
xylem
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Hey Xelaar,

Are you still trading?
And if so are you happy with the money your making yet?

Very refreshing to have read such a well written insightful thread.
Cheers

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  #934 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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xylem View Post
Hey Xelaar,

Are you still trading?
And if so are you happy with the money your making yet?

Very refreshing to have read such a well written insightful thread.
Cheers

Hi Xylem

yes I am trading, but not, not happy with money making as I am not making them at the moment
I have been blogging in a separate thread here but it seems it was a big mistake of mine as very few people visit and nobody posts, probably due to being Elite section blog or because word DAX in the topic name scares people out

You gave me an insight that instead maybe I should continue this thread instead.

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  #935 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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So the decision was swift: I am closing down my other thread at Elite section and returning back to my original thread, here. However, my trading became a bit undisciplined in a sense of lack of commitment and being too sporadic. Hence I had decided to do a shake-down program by running a TST Combine-styled 10 day marathon of strict plan following and performance metric-aware trading.

These are the details:
- 10 trading days
- Max risk 1500
- Profit target 1500
- 1 contract
- Max loss 500 a day / 1000 a week
- Max 3 losses in a row
- Trading time from 8AM till 2PM CET, with preferable window being 9 to 11
- Three distinct sessions: 8-9, 9-11, 11-14
- Only one direction change allowed per session
- Direction change must be confirmed on higher TF by trend rolling over, to avoid trading into "spurrs" of counter-trend volatility
- It trade is stopped out, next trade can be in opposite direction, or a new high/low should be made and signs of continuation present to continue trading in same direction

Instrument traded is FDAX futures, however this style work pretty much with anything. It is order flow-following volatility-conscious trading, helped by cumulative delta volume analysis using custom-made indicators based on Gomi's framework. But in a sense same can be done by watching GomCD and GomCDHA indie, so its just a helping crutch, nothing magic.

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  #936 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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I will be publishing my live stats here and do post-trading analysis for errors and possible improvements.

Trade management:

- two targets 2.5R and 5R, first to be considered in colder market, second in hot market
- stop 1.2R where R is ATR(20)
- break even set as we have a bar closed in positive direction, breaking from a consolidation
- if after the fill price is mostly in negative territory, set to break even as soon as bar closes at entry or positive, i.e. don't wait for a break out
- if price is clearly struggles to continue to profit target, bounces from BB, not marking new hi or lo, printing lots of tails, i.e. - exit

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  #937 (permalink)
 pvlee 
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xelaar View Post
So the decision was swift: I am closing down my other thread at Elite section and returning back to my original thread, here. However, my trading became a bit undisciplined in a sense of lack of commitment and being too sporadic. Hence I had decided to do a shake-down program by running a TST Combine-styled 10 day marathon of strict plan following and performance metric-aware trading.

These are the details:
- 10 trading days
- Max risk 1500
- Profit target 1500
- 1 contract
- Max loss 500 a day / 1000 a week
- Max 3 losses in a row
- Trading time from 8AM till 2PM CET, with preferable window being 9 to 11
- Three distinct sessions: 8-9, 9-11, 11-14
- Only one direction change allowed per session
- Direction change must be confirmed on higher TF by trend rolling over, to avoid trading into "spurrs" of counter-trend volatility
- It trade is stopped out, next trade can be in opposite direction, or a new high/low should be made and signs of continuation present to continue trading in same direction

Instrument traded is FDAX futures, however this style work pretty much with anything. It is order flow-following volatility-conscious trading, helped by cumulative delta volume analysis using custom-made indicators based on Gomi's framework. But in a sense same can be done by watching GomCD and GomCDHA indie, so its just a helping crutch, nothing magic.

I think the rule allowing only one direction change is very important. When I was scalping I tended to flip, which caused over trading, which caused painful days, which caused self doubt and then strategy change. All a total waste of financial and emotional capital

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  #938 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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pvlee View Post
I think the rule allowing only one direction change is very important. When I was scalping I tended to flip, which caused over trading, which caused painful days, which caused self doubt and then strategy change. All a total waste of financial and emotional capital

Agreed, this is what I have noticed too. However, there are certain flow patterns broadly defined by time of the day, hence "sessions" I described. In a sense, it is possible to just trade a primary window, 9 to 11 and allow just one direction change. It might be wise from risk management perspective too. It remains to be seen if I chose to limit myself to it, perhaps adding 8 to 9 as well. I favor it as it enables a nice lifestyle and free time to be had, instead of being a chair potato imprisoned by markets 14 hours a day.

Last few days market is active abnormal and except Monday, morning wasn't easy, nice trades developed later on. But maybe a power to just let it go and wait for your market in your time is something that is very important. I have at least recognized I cannot understand DAX well after 2 PM when US comes to play, however things do settle a bit around 4 PM. We shall see.

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  #939 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Let's document first two days of trading using this system. First day I was trading 2 contracts, which I decided to reduce to 1, and avoid taking small scale-outs. It helps on the risk side too.

Tuesday was a shaky day. One two trades were present during prime window but happened to be quick losers. Good trades appeared right after 11 AM but that required a new direction change. I avoided taking it.



Net day result - 20 points

Wednesday was shaken by Draghi proping up his funny-money program, DAX went through the roof, depriving me of trading. Later, some good stuff came though, but I wasn't really psyched to trade after ADR high was taken and was wary. I did take one entry but bailed for +3 points.



Net total: -17

I will be putting results into a spreadsheet combine-style later today.

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  #940 (permalink)
Pedro40
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
 
 
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Welcome back!

Wow that direction change rule is strange. Yes sometimes the market is rangebound and turns 4-5 times. They should allow at least 3 changes, that would still cut down on the flippers....

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  #941 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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Pedro40 View Post
Welcome back!

Wow that direction change rule is strange. Yes sometimes the market is rangebound and turns 4-5 times. They should allow at least 3 changes, that would still cut down on the flippers....

Thing is, it's not scalping. Its trying to get onto runners with small risk, when both low time frame and higher time frames look solid and there is a way to go. Once it starts to chop and regress, one direction change rule prevents you from losing a sight and being chopped off, so you can rejoin trading next session or next day.

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 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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This is to be expected a low volume week before the roll-over. We have an established pattern of counter-trend European session, doing deeper and deeper stop runs and then relentless and often dead-time timed no-pullback runs up during mid-US session. It's a difficult market to trade for EU-centric trader.

Thus said, I intend to implement my plan any way. Today Draghi is giving a speech at 1945, so expect any new ATH to be timed to that. It means a probable regression and messy stuff before that. I will have enough time to think through the strategy to buy on Draghi-induced buying spur. I have few ideas.

upd: when man makes a plan, God laughs. So much of a deeper stop run and waiting for Draghi, new ATH right after 9 AM. Don't get into routine guys, every day is a new adventure.

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 podski 
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xelaar View Post
This is to be expected a low volume week before the roll-over. We have an established pattern of counter-trend European session, doing deeper and deeper stop runs and then relentless and often dead-time timed no-pullback runs up during mid-US session. It's a difficult market to trade for EU-centric trader.

Thus said, I intend to implement my plan any way. Today Draghi is giving a speech at 1945, so expect any new ATH to be timed to that. It means a probable regression and messy stuff before that. I will have enough time to think through the strategy to buy on Draghi-induced buying spur. I have few ideas.

upd: when man makes a plan, God laughs. So much of a deeper stop run and waiting for Draghi, new ATH right after 9 AM. Don't get into routine guys, every day is a new adventure.

Mind the gap too ... :-)

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 xelaar 
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podski View Post
Mind the gap too ... :-)

Hey Paul, long time no see, glad you are here.
Yeah, there is a gap to RTH on Friday, so according to the gap theory, with-trend gaps tend to close. So there might be a move down soon. And possibly another move up in US session.

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  #945 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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So no Draghi explosion today. Boohoo. But we had 290 points day nevertheless. Crazy as it sounds. Up from 9 AM and restless until 5 PM. Nothing normal there. Pretty much no fat trades for me, until very late into the move so I stepped aside. There were good trades from 3M but that was only for educational purposes. Too big stops.

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 xelaar 
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So big news today at 11 AM. Tomorrow is FOMC, then we had a 3witching. What a week. I hope to call it early and be gone by Thursday to the first race weekend of the season in Croatia. HoHo.

Anyway, gap down this morning, almost closed by now, so a continuation up is likely. Give the circumstances a chance of pre-market trade before 9 AM is low, as immediate trend down is rolling over up.

There is a good chunk of space before the YH/ATH so we can expect a decent price action as price moves up. If it breaks down, remain careful as it can be a stop run with a V shaped reversal up.


upd wow just noticed I had become a "market wizard". I guess if you change "market" to "market blahblahblah" it will be just right

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  #947 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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There is one big realization that came to be lately: market can have an ordinary volatility and extra-ordinary volatility and its behavior is totally different among them. Ordinary volatility can be higher or lower, and price generally follows market structure fundamentals, you can plan stops and take profits adjusted to the volatility and trade same strategy. However, during extra-ordinary volatility, there is pretty much no market structure to anchor to, trading strategies aimed to ordinary volatility times perform badly and, unlike ordinary volatility times when markets are fractal and repetitive, extra-ordinary volatility markets are one-off events, providing almost unique price action every time, making it very difficult to trade with any structure-concision strategy (pullbacks, consolidations, breakouts, etc), and the only choice is hoping to ride momentum.

So the revelation is, if you limit your trading to the ordinary volatility markets and learn to by-pass extra-ordinary volatility market, you will do very well.

Talking about ordinary volatility. I have found out, that it is very well worth it to trade less volatile market state from lower time frame, and more volatile market state (still orderly market) from higher time frame. Currently I use 30 second and 3 minute time frame for trading. I use ATR(20) to determine volatility. Anything above 6 points on 30 seconds makes me stop trading (as stop will be above 7 points) it and wait either to have market to calm down, or to get an entry from 3 minute time frame off its market structure. Same time I won't take a trade off 3 minute frame is low volatility market, let's say if ATR(20) on 3M is less than 10 points. Because while it still likely to work, there is no sufficient reward potential to justify trading off this timeframe, so it is better to focus on smaller time frame. Since I had automated entry detection, I have filters that let out unsuitable conditions for each time frame.

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 Itchymoku 
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xelaar View Post
There is one big realization that came to be lately: market can have an ordinary volatility and extra-ordinary volatility and its behavior is totally different among them. Ordinary volatility can be higher or lower, and price generally follows market structure fundamentals, you can plan stops and take profits adjusted to the volatility and trade same strategy. However, during extra-ordinary volatility, there is pretty much no market structure to anchor to, trading strategies aimed to ordinary volatility times perform badly and, unlike ordinary volatility times when markets are fractal and repetitive, extra-ordinary volatility markets are one-off events, providing almost unique price action every time, making it very difficult to trade with any structure-concision strategy (pullbacks, consolidations, breakouts, etc), and the only choice is hoping to ride momentum.

So the revelation is, if you limit your trading to the ordinary volatility markets and learn to by-pass extra-ordinary volatility market, you will do very well.

I've found this very true for many fast moving instruments. It's almost like dealing with two completely different markets. One day I could hit all my targets over and over, and then the next day it's like I'm dealing with a completely different monster altogether. I could write a book trying to explain why this phenomenon occurs because it's a culmination of many complicated variables working in unison churning out an almost infinite array of patterns.

The best way I deal with an instruments varying degrees of volatility is simply to just download the previous few hours of data from the beginning of the day and replay it at different speeds depending on the price action I'm looking for. I like to get a sense of what I'm dealing with before I jump in and try to wrap my head around what other traders of similar style were up against because it may give me clues if they've hit their daily loss limit or not. Obviously sentiment can shift at anytime too, that's also something to keep aware of. I used to just look at the chart and guess about what had happened, but I've found that doesn't convey enough information to me. There's a lot of movement locked inside a chart that can't really be discerned with whatever bar-type is used be it timebased or not. Some of the movement that looks like I would've caught it simply isn't so when I review how fast or slow it occurred.

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  #949 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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A quick trading life-hack here: how to determine volatility bands for given time frame - just put a very long time period ATR there, say 10000 periods for a 30s time frame, and see what it is. For DAX it is about 3-3.5 points. Indeed, my default is stop developed by a gut feeling was 4 points. So when it rises to 6, it's time to move up to next time frame. For 3 minutes my stop again developed by watching the market and manually back testing is about 10 points. What is 1000 atr? 9 points. so for anything more than 18 points - time to stop trading that TF. For me it means stop trading altogether, as for intra-day trading having 2 gears is more than enough IMO.

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 xelaar 
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After the race season opener this weekend in not-so-shiny-this-time-out Croatia (but still good) I am back to my desk.

Some decent pre-market setups but I decided to wait until it is open as it is Monday, new contract. We had this big sell off right after the close that lasted 30 minutes. No entries for me. I am trading from 8am till 12pm, so there are still 2 hours left today but apparently this move is over and unless we have another, calmer push, there will be no trades today.

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 xelaar 
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This is it for today. High volatility prevented me from trading low time frame thanks to my volatility-geared model. However there were trades on higher time frame, that I took on demo. Execution of exit was shaky, though. It looks like the model is working very well. So I will be taking these trades live in future.




PS another important observation turned rule: don't trade volatility decrease, only increase. I.e. you can switch up the time frame on rising volatility, but don't switch down from higher time frame to lower time frame. Because when volatility decreases there most likely will be a total chop on a lower time frame. You need some market reset event, a new trading session, a news spike, etc. to restart the market and then assess the volatility afresh.

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 xelaar 
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If one would be looking at market from 30s chart today, a picture would be very messy. Even though, my filters would let most losers out and few that still remained would be offset by an odd winner so slightly positive. But if one looks at 3m time frame as I mentioned in the morning (no gear down, only gear up), it looks much better actually despite the big mess..


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 gregid 
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@xelaar,

If it is not a problem for you, since you are using only a snapshot of part of your chart, it would be helpful for us to see on the chart which timeframe you are currently using... or using your terminology which gear have you switched to

Some time ago I did some minor upgrade to existing ChartName indicator for myself, the attached indicator includes also bar type/period with more control over what is displayed - feel free to use it if it won't distract you too much.

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: zip ChartNameAndPeriod.zip (3.3 KB, 18 views)
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 xelaar 
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gregid View Post
@xelaar,

If it is not a problem for you, since you are using only a snapshot of part of your chart, it would be helpful for us to see on the chart which timeframe you are currently using... or using your terminology which gear have you switched to

Some time ago I did some minor upgrade to existing ChartName indicator for myself, the attached indicator includes also bar type/period with more control over what is displayed - feel free to use it if it won't distract you too much.

Black is 30s , white is 3m 😁

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 xelaar 
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Another carbon copy day. Some decent pre-market low TF trades (not taken!) and then big moves, whipsaw. Not likely to have any high TF trades either as trending move is likely over and delta is not really positive.


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 xelaar 
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And again

Today we did not have any decent entries with a STF (short time frame - 30s for me, black chart), there was some chop but no system entries. Then we had got the move after 9, and there was a very tempting system entry on HTF (high time frame - 3m for me, white chart), and I nearly took it live but hesitated at the last second. It was a great trade that went past its second target. Trading plan-wise, I should have exited at upper bollinger that was descending.

Then another trade on HTF, I took it on demo, as I did not want to trade live selectively (after missing trade 1). Very clean and nice entry but somewhat messy exit around target 1. I let it work to target 1 and have my take profit order at target 2 as upper bollinger was rising and trending move was progressing. However market made two strong down moves with next two 3m bars that reversed up though, but after the delta printed a very strong bearish bar I called it to exit at a very good price, literally target 1. That was good for 19.5 points.



Overall potential profits were 45 points today risking 7 points twice.

Even though I still have difficulties to apply it to live trading after so many rounds of trading hell, I am getting there. I am ready to trade LTF live, but need to psyche myself to take 3m signals too. Very soon.

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 JohnS 
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Thanks @xelaar, it seems that no movement beyond IB as of now with relatively low volume shows that the day traders are in control pushing the price around the VWAP...perhaps OTFs waiting for 1330 news from US.

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 xelaar 
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JohnS View Post
Thanks @xelaar, it seems that no movement beyond IB as of now with relatively low volume shows that the day traders are in control pushing the price around the VWAP...perhaps OTFs waiting for 1330 news from US.

Maybe yes, maybe no. One of the things I had to learn and be reminded of recently is that there is no need to explain the market moves, nor to be a market commentator. Leave it to CNBC as they know nothing else.

In my experience trying to frame the market into some preconceived ideas or scenarios will lead to fixation and possible loss of opportunities. I am certainly talking about day trading only. So the only working idea for me is to trade what I see, not what I think.



Here is another illustration of it. We had a serious support level, there was a HTF trade into it, price just slowed down so I exited around target 1 and bollinger. In 5 seconds price broke is and went to target 2, which according to rules I had to hold for, as it was a trend trade, bollinger opened down and all looked bearish. 4 to 1 trade was there.

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 JohnS 
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Maybe yes, maybe no. One of the things I had to learn and be reminded of recently is that there is no need to explain the market moves, nor to be a market commentator. Leave it to CNBC as they know nothing else.

In my experience trying to frame the market into some preconceived ideas or scenarios will lead to fixation and possible loss of opportunities. I am certainly talking about day trading only. So the only working idea for me is to trade what I see, not what I think.



Here is another illustration of it. We had a serious support level, there was a HTF trade into it, price just slowed down so I exited around target 1 and bollinger. In 5 seconds price broke is and went to target 2, which according to rules I had to hold for, as it was a trend trade, bollinger opened down and all looked bearish. 4 to 1 trade was there.

Hi @xelaar,
Thank you for your information but I'm not really sure I understand you. Your comment suggests that I am not looking at the market or not trading the market and that I am some how merely commenting like a talking head on CNBC?

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 xelaar 
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Hi @xelaar,
Thank you for your information but I'm not really sure I understand you. Your comment suggests that I am not looking at the market or not trading the market and that I am some how merely commenting like a talking head on CNBC?

I wasn't referring to your comment or trading, sorry if it sounded like that. What I am talking about is a mouse-trap I had been forcing myself into on many occasions previously. I goes like that for example: yesterday we had a trend up and it is in line with a general trend up so I plan to trade longs today, there are level of support and resistance, I have a scenario for price to test them and reverse, in this case I trade like that, I will wait for initial balance to form and trade breaks of that keeping in mind a general trend.

Sometimes it works, but many times doesn't. You expect trend to continue, but you may catch a stop run for counter-trend traders and instead of continuation get a range play, you may want to trade a deep pullback and expect market to run stops first but instead if will drop like a rock without any attempts to move higher first and you miss a huge day. The variations are countless. And then it is all too easy to look at market in a hindsight glass and explain it like talking heads do. It's comfortable for anyone, as you still can be smart and be right, but unless someone pays you for it like CNBC does for talking heads, there is no point in doing it. I had been guilty of it way too often.

Structure based approach is very important for swing trading. In my opinion you only should consult much higher time frames for very strong levels of S/R that you will treat like zone on your trading time frame and this is it pretty much. If you operate small intra-day stops and targets, there is no point to take into account high time frame constructions. What can be a nice bread-and-butter trend on your trading time frame can be just a blip on a high time frame.

In my case, we have a consolidation on daily and range on 30 minutes, what many would regard as a complete chop. But this chop generates beautiful trading opportunities day in and day out.

Just my personal reflections.

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 JohnS 
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xelaar View Post
I wasn't referring to your comment or trading, sorry if it sounded like that. What I am talking about is a mouse-trap I had been forcing myself into on many occasions previously. I goes like that for example: yesterday we had a trend up and it is in line with a general trend up so I plan to trade longs today, there are level of support and resistance, I have a scenario for price to test them and reverse, in this case I trade like that, I will wait for initial balance to form and trade breaks of that keeping in mind a general trend.

Sometimes it works, but many times doesn't. You expect trend to continue, but you may catch a stop run for counter-trend traders and instead of continuation get a range play, you may want to trade a deep pullback and expect market to run stops first but instead if will drop like a rock without any attempts to move higher first and you miss a huge day. The variations are countless. And then it is all too easy to look at market in a hindsight glass and explain it like talking heads do. It's comfortable for anyone, as you still can be smart and be right, but unless someone pays you for it like CNBC does for talking heads, there is no point in doing it. I had been guilty of it way too often.

Structure based approach is very important for swing trading. In my opinion you only should consult much higher time frames for very strong levels of S/R that you will treat like zone on your trading time frame and this is it pretty much. If you operate small intra-day stops and targets, there is no point to take into account high time frame constructions. What can be a nice bread-and-butter trend on your trading time frame can be just a blip on a high time frame.

In my case, we have a consolidation on daily and range on 30 minutes, what many would regard as a complete chop. But this chop generates beautiful trading opportunities day in and day out.

Just my personal reflections.

@xelaar,
Thank you for your clarification. A little clarification from my side, I execute on a 30 minute chart and refer to 60 minute, and 120 or higher charts to get a picture of the market so my comments are based on these timeframes.

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 xelaar 
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@xelaar,
Thank you for your clarification. A little clarification from my side, I execute on a 30 minute chart and refer to 60 minute, and 120 or higher charts to get a picture of the market so my comments are based on these timeframes.


Absolutely. No offence was meant from my side. But as a reminder this is a blog called Trading fast markets that deals with fast intraday moves and short time frames. So all my posts and replies are in line with that theme.

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  #963 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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Strange days. Volume was 300% in pre-market. 90 pts gap. As often, a counter-trend gap doesn't get closed right away. High-volume move down continues. There was a trade opportunity for me on LTF in pre-market but it was in a deep regression of the down gap, so it wasn't a conventional situation and I let it go. Anyway, I better get used to a market that make eyebrows go high almost every day, to do some actual trading, not just commentary.



The trade missed was a little one, yes it developed into a monster run down but rule-wise profit should be taken very soon at lower bollinger so at best profit target was 5.5 points, not 80 it eventually did. There was a weak trend entry on HTF, it should not be taken. There was another momentum level entry that did very very well, but I am yet to continue observing and testing these entries, as I had changed the parameters to reduce number of weak trades and only keep it as an option to enter into no-pullback market that makes a quick stop with a relatively small stop.

Today we have one 2 hours left and the only opportunities I would be looking for will be on HTF.



After volatility jumped I have got only two half-trades, i.e. trades that should be exited as delta was borderline. Both even if kept and managed as normal would have been break-evens, even if second one was deep in profit at some point - about 35 points, risking 13. But there was no reasonable exit point for this trade. Anyway, that was not a proper entry.

I had realized that for me a great help would be to turn my indicator into a semi-automated strategy, that will just enter the trade and place a strategy, alerting me of it and letting me manage the trade afterwards. Few things need to be solved first, for example LL/HH rule must be added, and volatility flag must be added to prevent entering LTF trades after a significant increase in volatility (i.e. not allowing to go gear down again). But it can solve the entering hesitation problem and get me closer to my news-trading routines that were working so well. Back then entries were also automated and only trade management was manual.

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  #964 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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So, I have reviewed my trading structure and had decided to run two live combine-style trading plans for LTF and HTF trades.
In a nutshell, LTF will be run similar to 30k combine, with 500 eur/1500 eur risks, HTF will be run as 50k combine, with 1000 eur/2000 eur risks. Max conseq. loss number is 3 or 2 per direction. This makes max risk per day realistic and allows to throttle down trading if things start to get really wacky very fast, allowing to review and re-evaluate. I will prepare today my spreadsheet and will start working with it tomorrow. I will branch out my experiment into a separate thread, initially designed for 10 trading days. I will post a link here.

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xylem
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Hey,

Your patience is fantastic.
I dont know how you manage to skip so many trading days.
Do you ever feel you should be making more money faster or making money now fullstop.

This is something Im struggling with as I feel if I dont sort out my plan soon I just have to quit.
Am I insane for keeping on trying to beat the market after all this time with no success.

Today for instance I had the short bias in Oil but couldnt capitalise on the down move. My orderflow setups werent working and the charts were choppy. I feel like the conditions looked right for a good profitable day though which really dents my confidence.

Are you making money yet or struggling with these questions?

Cheers

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 xelaar 
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xylem View Post
Hey,

Your patience is fantastic.
I dont know how you manage to skip so many trading days.
Do you ever feel you should be making more money faster or making money now fullstop.

This is something Im struggling with as I feel if I dont sort out my plan soon I just have to quit.
Am I insane for keeping on trying to beat the market after all this time with no success.

Today for instance I had the short bias in Oil but couldnt capitalise on the down move. My orderflow setups werent working and the charts were choppy. I feel like the conditions looked right for a good profitable day though which really dents my confidence.

Are you making money yet or struggling with these questions?

Cheers


Thanks man, patience was something I had been working on for a long long time. However, I doubt I can take a credit for what is happening now. It is rather the situation, where I put in an incredible amount of time, efforts on research, testing, investigating, programming for about 2.5 years now, and here I am, finally having something that looks incredibly solid, robust and profitable. And I am scared to plunge in it and start trading, not even fearing the money loss, but a huge disappointment that it can be a lost effort, time wasted. I know that it is not wasted even if system will not remain unbreakable over time as it happens, as principles I am using are not of any temporary inefficiency and parameters are not curve-fitted. So it should be easy to tweak if necessary in future and keep it working. But still this desire not to put it to real test persists.

It was much more easier for me to trade off some much less researched ideas, because I only risked money. Now I am risking a huge amount of my life put into it.

But a time has come to stand up and put a deed behind a word. Plus, I need to start making money as my other source of income is getting thin and sporadic. I do have some reserves so I don't need to live from withdrawal to withdrawal but these reserves need replenishing from time to time.

A decent way to kick off would be to trade 10 days in combine-style accountability.

I had been making money during last year, and losing money too. Overall slightly negative as I was stopping after a couple of days of losses, but the ways I was trading were lacking structural alignment with the market and volatility. I.e. I was trending trend when channel should be traded and traded channel when range should be traded, etc.

Before that I was very profitable trading ecostat release volatility. Then I switched to futures completely and completed a Combine 150k with TST and went live with them. But not for long. Then I spent whole year on learning markets better, investigating and developing. Now I am better prepared than I ever was. Scary.

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 xelaar 
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Next week I am starting my live Combine, so today will be a last post here analysing system and its trades for a time being. Quite a difficult day today. How my system did? Check it out.



We started off with an easy low risk trade at 8-15 which could yield up to 80 points risking just 5. 16 to 1 But rules called to exit at +8.

Next entry at 8-45, risk 5 points, projected target +27.5 hit. Next trade around 8-55 at stopped out for -5.5.

There was a potential entry at about 9-05 but price did not hit new HH, so it should not be traded.

Then we have got volatility rising and there was a trade off HTF at 9-26 with 9 point stop. It made few attempts at going, eventually getting stopped at B/E as per rules. That turned out to be a reversal move that drawn today's range borders.

Around 11-06 we have got a weak signal on HTF but it should not be traded.

There were no trades on LTF until after 13-00, which is outside of our trading time, but it would be a winner of 36 points, BTW. Then another short but stopped out by -6.5 points loss. That would be pretty much it for analysis until 2 PM, which is a limit hour for any flow-based trading in DAX. Next window is starting at around 3-45 PM but I am not very interested to trade it hence no point in analyzing it.

I.e. today would bring 2 winners on LTF for +35.5 points, one loser for -5.5 points, and one break-even trade on HTF. Overall +30 less commissions and slippages on stop and break-even, but it's only a couple of points give or take so makes no sense to put too much attention to it, as the system does not produce many trades to make it a heavy toll.

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  #968 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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This is why I don't trade it

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 xelaar 
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This is my temporary journal thread, feel free to follow up!


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 xelaar 
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This is the funny market today in DAX. After a big run up yesterday, a big gap down on open today. Not a single trade possibility in pre-market. Price goes down but delta goes up. Let's see if it will reverse back up and give a nice entry, but situation is bit ugly for now.

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  #971 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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I have bought a new action cam for POV videos and timelapse series. Have a look at one hour travel jammed into 1 minute. 40 mile trip around city of Prague in stormy weather.



Notice a small American Army convoy in first few seconds of the video

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 xelaar 
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Trading fast. Riding even faster! Training with a good friend (professional rider) in Misano.


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 xelaar 
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I have discovered more about myself this event. As we had discussed with you earlier in this and a sister thread, it is very important to have a strong level of self-confidence and high degree of self-evaluation. Without it it is impossible to achieve anything. This has also transpired during this racing event. I had started on a back foot at Thursday, lap time very bad and I did not know where to improve it in a quality, expect just pushing the limits of braking and accelerating, which is the last thing you should do after you learn to do everything right and ride a beautiful line. I hired a buddy of mine as an intructor. He's a professional motorcycle athlete and were competing in World Superbikes Superstock 1000 series. So he rode with me and shown me a footage from his gopro cam. He wasn't polite with s** and f** words. The thing is I am not new to racing or riding motorcycle on a track. But somehow it eroded and while I still remember all the right things I do things wrongly due to lack of trust in everything.

So we started to work from the scratch. From a seating position on straights and in corners, to timely body movement, to location on track during braking and turns. Usually learning it takes quite some time, but for me trusting him leading me faster was not a journey into a new unknown land but rather recalling forgotten landscapes. So it took just 4 training sessions with him to improve to a time close to my ever best times in races. With few more sessions to go and in a race I am confident I would have beaten it. The video is from our last outing on Friday. Unfortunately my gearbox stuck in 3rd at the end of it so I had to retire and call a day, missing the race. It appeared to be not a 3k hit with a gearbox replacement I have feared (this motor is so strong after been tuned to 220 hp it is going through it's third box already), but a 50c clip lost. So it was fixed by the end of the day, but the rain started at night and ruined all further plans. And then I drove home. Another 700 mile trip. Luckily I had 130km/81mph rated trailer so I got home incredibly fast in under 9 hours. A record.

In a sense, participating in a race is like doing a trade - some conditions are under your control like the line you are choosing, braking and acceleration and some aren't - like other riders hitting you, someone crashing into or in front of your and putting oil or a debris on track. There is a risk of writing off your race back and gear (about 15k on average) and getting some injuries that can send you in hospital for long if you aren't lucky. If you are very unlucky it can end up with a wooden casket. So risk is quite real, while reward is more of a personal thing. Only few get 1$ worth plastic medals or cups, most just proud of their participation.

In case of trading we have risk with maybe much higher degree of uncertainty (nobody would race if they would end of with 50% probability of going down, it is probably 1-2 guys crashing during the race on average among 30-40 riders, so it's 1-3% rather, and usually happens with someone making some really bad decision), but far more controllable damage. And quite real rewards. So trading is in my opinion far less risky than any kind of adrenaline sport. And it can give quite a satisfaction too, not only fatten an account.

A lesson learned, not only for racing but for other aspects of life including trading: give yourself an extra credit of trust, never undervalue your abilities and achievements, and if you put some good work into something and have seen positive results - give it a go and don't be afraid to accept a reasonable risk.

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  #974 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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This is a simple system I wish to explore and share with anybody who is longing for a short term order flow based system. This is not a finished all done bells and whistles path to reaches. Rather an idea, one is open to explore for himself.

I have tested this idea on several different instruments: dax, euro, gold and it seems to be universal, as it is the most fundamental idea.

In a nutshell - open a yesterday's chart, put a structural time frame on, where you can work with whole day's structure on one screen and see all major swings. I use 30 minutes time frame. You can use 1H for 24h markets, or 15-minutes for shorter session markets.



After this is done, mark major swing highs and lows with pin bars or just bars with tails, signalling a reaction and consecutive buying or a sell off. Look to have this price level being reacted to more than once. Paint 3-5 levels, don't go crazy.

After this is done, go to the low time frame, like 1 minute or lower. I like 30 seconds universally. No indicators needed, but you can put a standard bollinger on it, it assists visually.

Don't fade the price running into the level, bollinger will be wide open. Let it react first, break or reverse. After price is settled one way or the other look to fade the level on consecutive approach. Prefer a fast move to the level to a creeping one. You can place an order few ticks before the level - this is should be tested for each instrument. Look to protect these trades after few candle closes. Use fixed take profit. I like 3 risks. Risk should be determined based on current volatility. I like 1-1.5 atrs of the trading time frame. Hence target will be 3-5 atrs.



If you use tools like Jigsaw TS, cumulative delta, simple tape - you have a powerful instrument to trade with this simple system. This is not a holy grail or anything, but a basic idea that works, if you can manage to trade it consistently during few hours of moderate volatility. Avoid trading during dead hours and during market open and ecostat releases when volatility spikes.

I personally can't trade it, it's just too much for me at the moment. But this is totally something I will put an effort into converting into an algorithm. It works well with my delta strength trading model, like everything else.

Remember, this is only to provoke your thought, give you a thesis. It's not a recommendation, please investigate and test before doing anything with real money!

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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smusa87
Nigeria
 
 
Posts: 1 since Feb 2015
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Hi Xelaar,

How do you manage to use CTS platform with Jigsaw add-on a ninjatrader. Is it on any additional cost. And why would you require confirmation of another DOM though you are using super Tool like Jigsaw.

I love cts but Jigsaw too and you know it can't be added to cts. I don't like Ninja so much and if you are doing it with no additional cost i am definitely going to do the same. CTS and Jigsaw.

I love the your set-up excluding indicators.

Thanks

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 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received

Hi guys, it's been a while. While I tend to update my DAX journal in Elite section from time to time, I totally neglected this general thread. After all it was initially dedicated to doing a Combine.

DAX trading slowly but improving, a decision to cut risk and move to CFD for a time being was a first smart decision for a long time. Granted, I tried my hand at trading larger setups on DAX using CFD back in January 2015 with Dukascopy broker, but volatility spiked then and their spreads became very unreliable, many entries weren't triggered because spread would jump from 1 point to 8 in some key areas, same with stops. So I bailed on it. But the problem was the capital I had committed to developing myself as a DAX intraday trader was very insufficient for intraday swing trading (10k eur). It was ok when I initially moved to attemp to ride small swings with scalping entries, but more erratic market and very variable volatility effectively killed this possibility for me. And I tried to trade for some time with stops being like 750 eur per trade at times, which was more than 7.5% of account, but one-two losses always put me into completely upset state and I was unable to capitilize on next trades. So I had to do something. So when I found another venue to trade CFD cheaper and with more stable spreads and execution it was a no brainer.

I still consider to move back to futures once I trade consitently profitable, but according to my trading plan it would require at least 50k eur capital to be able to work with 10-30 points stops, trading from 1 contact for 20-30 points, up to 3 for 10 points, but as you can see math is still wrong with such large contracts.

Anyway, I will continue with CFD. However, I would like to ask for your opinion. I consider to take a course in trading small cap company stocks. Since I never day traded stocks, taking a course makes more sense than wasting time trying to learn it by trial and error. Time wise it suits me, as US market opens at 3-30 PM and I prefer to finish with DAX by 2 PM. The reason is to have an alternative trading venue, alternative market. I kept looking for additional instruments besides DAX to be able to rely up, but any index is pretty much the same, YM being a most correlated one, but others not too far. And gold and crude require totally different approach, and in my opinion require a lot of hours of sitting and waiting for a setup to come. I do not consider scalping for a few ticks a road ahead for me.

Hence the idea of adding stocks trading skill to my experience. And who knows maybe it will suit me better and I will enjoy it more. A big advantage is there are many trading groups and communities day trading stocks, while with DAX I am pretty much alone, especially with a completely custom approach to it. It's unbelievable lonely at times and I keep questioning myself what if I am chasing a ghost? There is nobody around to look at it from the side..

So let me know what do you think.

Cheers

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #977 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
Broker: LMAX
Trading: DAX, Gold, Euro
 
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Posts: 1,517 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 1,740 given, 2,566 received

Hi guys
Not so much trading recently but today I completed my scale in on gold, 66% on gold vs euro and 33% on gold vs usd.
I don't plan to add more even if NFP will take us closer to lows, but there is a good chance it will take off on nfp is number is quite bad. There are signs that sh%t is going to hit the fan in November, I totally don't buy a lie about a rate hike and I see a possibility of escalation with Russia, so going long gold in my trading account and going to buy few small investment bars with very low spread locally too, in case things get ugly soon and capital controls ensued.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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billbohm
NEW DELHI + Uttar Pradesh/INDIA
 
 
Posts: 1 since Jan 2016
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I need 1 hour bar - historical data for CL, Crude Oil, NYMEX for 10-20 years in Excel format, OHLC. Any help will be greatly appreciated.

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