I will begin my journal here. Instead of spewing random thoughts concerning setups and such in the Spoonalysis thread, I would be much better served by keeping them concentrated for myself, and those that may be interested, in a separate thread. Thanks @Big Mike for making this forum available for such.
My primary focus is the /es. My trades are triggered using the nyse $tick, as this is the closest thing I have found to a real time (leading?) indicator that I am aware of.
Before I get into my method of madness, let me say that there are several people that have been trading mentors to me, yet they have no idea. I have been fortunate to be able to learn from some unbelievable traders and none charged a dime. Some found here on futures.io (formerly BMT), some elsewhere. Lucky for me, most were shortlived. Because when they would post, I couldn’t concentrate on what I should have been concentrating on which is “my trading.” Instead, I would be too consumed with wondering what they might post next so I could follow. It was only when they went silent, that I could find the confidence to place “my” trades.
My trading begins with trying to determine the context of the market. Are we trending, or are we within a bracket? My trade locations are based on predetermined areas of interest. These areas are found by analyzing the market in several time frames. I rely on Market Profile to locate such areas. I prefer to take my trades at “extremes”, or outside of value. I use profile value areas, and vwap 2nd sd bands. I watch for these areas to form a confluence area with other key levels such as pivots, retracement areas, etc. Everything in my trading is discretionary so I am wrong often. Before I enter a trade, I always know where I will be proven wrong. An example would be fading a retracement at 50% and placing my stop a tick or two beyond the 61.8% level. ( Sounds good, but will I get out? That is one purpose of this journal I suppose.)
As for the $tick, I could not trade without it. It is my primary tool for triggers. I use a 5 min & 1 min tick chart. I look for divergence with moving average. I use trendlines & channels, identify support & resistance, all on my tick chart instead of the price chart. Often a channel break, etc. will occur before the price will. I also pay attention to new tick hi’s, low’s of the day & especially extreme ticks. Typically readings over 1000, under -1000. I am also beginning to incorporate the vol ladder into my trading.
QE freight train, this chart makes me ignore all of the short term divergences on my screen at the moment. The only way I would consider a reversal trade here would be for the market to stop one time framing, short try outside value currently at 82, stop just above DR3 at 84.
Looking forward to this journal sounds interesting. I want to learn more on how people use $Tick, there is a good thread on here actually I'm sure you might have read it already.
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Yes, I would recommend you check out Dr Steenbarger's Traderfeed blog as well if you haven't already. A wealth of info about nyse $tick found there. I read back through it regularly.
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Bull in full beast mode. ma solidly above zero line. few dips below the last 4 days. would at least wait for moving avg to break trendline before thinking of countertrend trades.
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Please include a source link when quoting other material, such as Bespoke.
The problem with Bespoke is they've never published (to my knowledge) a graph that shows how accurate their own polls are, for example overlaying their poll sentiment with actual market performance.
pre market plan:
open inside yesterdays value area. With the trend day breakout yesterday, would be logical to look for a range day today, possible inside day before continuation higher. while it is most important to buy weakness in a srong market, will prefer to look for long opps with a pullback. decent resistance with the o/n hi's confluent with 3 day vah, WR2, & MR2. just above we have YR2 & DR1 @90. Below yest value area, single prints at 77, support could come into play around weekly vwap as we fill in yesterdays short covering profile. market obviously o/b but that hasn't meant much lately. AS always, will study tick, if prices reach zones.
premarket zones have been annialated. would be nice to leave an excess high up here, however, all countertrend trades off the table until we stop one time framing higher.
trying a stab short here, filled at 91. tick divergence on 5 min, channel break on 1 min. volume seems to be drying up on footprint chart. stop over 93 new hi's
OK, trade happened to work out, unfortunately dumb ass me set a market order while intending to place a stop limit at new daily hi's. ended up losing a pt. Anyway, close to target now ib hi, 50% retrace of the day range & val. might be too much to ask for. got to eliminate these brain fart mistakes, could blame it on trying to get used to a new platform & dom. but no, more than a month into is no excuse. out
I'll chip in here as I am pleased to see someone discussing the $TICKS. The breadth divergence today infers a morning retest of the 1585 SPX level in the absence of a meaningful overnight catalyst. If 1585 SPX is not touched in the morning, and especially if 1590 SPX is held bid, then 1600 SPX into the close is the logical scenario.
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2 missed trades today so far based on my plan that I would like to document. Both setup in zones that were predetermined. Both gave clear signals based on my trigger.
1) Open drive to yest val 86-87 was good location for short trade. $Tick breakdown through lower trendline trigger
2) 75-76 support zone offers a nice long entry with RSI & tick divergence on 1 min. $Tick downchannel breakout trigger
trade number one, was just not focused on the open.
trade number two, I was waiting on wvwap support zone around 72-73. Volume ladder mentioned above kept me out of trade.
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"Why bother gathering further info, if the market is offering you a legitimate edge, determine the risk and take the trade."
Mark Douglas, Trading In The Zone
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Decent chance for trend day down today. A/D negatively skewed from the open, open below DS1, $tick bearish. However, market is at last week's closing vwap level here at 73 which could hold as support.
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Targeting low 70's to put out shorts. Like the confluence of yest vah, 3 day lvn, trendline resistance, fib box & wpp.
A break above 72 would be a nearby exit. Should know pretty quick if analysis is wrong. 72 also happens to be yesterday's breakdown point. Profile needs some filling in in the area highlighted as well. makes sense. Market should be well overbought if it makes it to 70 as well.
short at 1570, filled in yesterday's profile nicely. Extreme $tick right into downtrendline resistance. Stop over 72 showing acceptance above yesterday's vah, fib box.
similar plan as yesterday. price boucing between weekly pivots convieniently situated within the fib boxes. Like the confluence there. At least till one breaks. If the 1550 breaks, will expect a fill in of the trend day down profile to 45, with 42.25 being the line in the sand.
Starting a long weekend now going camping, canoeing with my eldest son Alex, (Xela, in case one wonders where my username comes from. Ben being my youngest.) leaving a few observations here. small caps finding money here it seems by looking at some of the more interesting growth stocks. CELG, BIIB, LNKD, CREE, KORS all look buyable at support. nice divergence on the IWM 1 hr chart. 3 day profile . should be good at least back to wvwap. Hate to leave with all this volatility going on, been fun the last few days. out!
Short at 88. minor tick divergence at previous vah. more so because of the huge volume coming in as shown on the footprint. stop above yesterday's high.
notes for previous losing trade:
1) Breadth extremely positive, price above DR1, should not have faded. Should have been early alert for possible uptrend day.
2) Current swing high at 95.5 made during o/n session. Should not trust hi made in o/n session with no excess.
If SPX 90 Held Offer then 80 and 75 were logical objectives. But you shorted 90 Failed Offer after 85 Held Bid with much better than expected jobless claims and a better than expected ECB policy decision before the open. In that context SPX 90 Failed Offer inferred 95 to 00.
For tomorrow, consider SPX 95 Held Bid near the open or 90 Held Bid before 1000 CT with 1600 Objective to paint the tape into weekend. Employment numbers before the open should set early tone. JPY Held Bid at 98 would be very supportive.
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Surely there's business to be done back down to 32?? Today's profile may finally leave some upside excess to reference for a change. Cumulative tick not buying the last 2 days move. hmmmm
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Trying to get back into things today after a busy spell removed me from the market for a while. Took a short trade early today. Entered at yesterday's vah, expecting a tighter range today, targeting yesterday's val. I was RAN OVER to say the least, stopped out quickly over new highs. Reason for the trade was that breadth and the $tick started the day looking pretty weak, and still do actually. So, maybe a little early on that short trade. Rule broken for the day:
"Buy weakness in strong markets, Sell strength in weak markets." I don't think they get much stronger than this.
45 the obvious level for tommorrow's plan. weekly vwap confluent with vah here. inside day today on the /es helps with the context. if support is found around 45, maybe we clean up the poor hi left up at the hi of today's profile. If not, could easily see us fill in the thin area down to 30 ish. Pay attention to the trendline on the cumulative tick.
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