I will begin my journal here. Instead of spewing random thoughts concerning setups and such in the Spoonalysis thread, I would be much better served by keeping them concentrated for myself, and those that may be interested, in a separate thread. Thanks @Big Mike for making this forum available for such.
My primary focus is the /es. My trades are triggered using the nyse $tick, as this is the closest thing I have found to a real time (leading?) indicator that I am aware of.
Before I get into my method of madness, let me say that there are several people that have been trading mentors to me, yet they have no idea. I have been fortunate to be able to learn from some unbelievable traders and none charged a dime. Some found here on futures.io (formerly BMT), some elsewhere. Lucky for me, most were shortlived. Because when they would post, I couldn’t concentrate on what I should have been concentrating on which is “my trading.” Instead, I would be too consumed with wondering what they might post next so I could follow. It was only when they went silent, that I could find the confidence to place “my” trades.
My trading begins with trying to determine the context of the market. Are we trending, or are we within a bracket? My trade locations are based on predetermined areas of interest. These areas are found by analyzing the market in several time frames. I rely on Market Profile to locate such areas. I prefer to take my trades at “extremes”, or outside of value. I use profile value areas, and vwap 2nd sd bands. I watch for these areas to form a confluence area with other key levels such as pivots, retracement areas, etc. Everything in my trading is discretionary so I am wrong often. Before I enter a trade, I always know where I will be proven wrong. An example would be fading a retracement at 50% and placing my stop a tick or two beyond the 61.8% level. ( Sounds good, but will I get out? That is one purpose of this journal I suppose.)
As for the $tick, I could not trade without it. It is my primary tool for triggers. I use a 5 min & 1 min tick chart. I look for divergence with moving average. I use trendlines & channels, identify support & resistance, all on my tick chart instead of the price chart. Often a channel break, etc. will occur before the price will. I also pay attention to new tick hi’s, low’s of the day & especially extreme ticks. Typically readings over 1000, under -1000. I am also beginning to incorporate the vol ladder into my trading.
QE freight train, this chart makes me ignore all of the short term divergences on my screen at the moment. The only way I would consider a reversal trade here would be for the market to stop one time framing, short try outside value currently at 82, stop just above DR3 at 84.
Looking forward to this journal sounds interesting. I want to learn more on how people use $Tick, there is a good thread on here actually I'm sure you might have read it already.
The following user says Thank You to cmmichaels for this post:
Yes, I would recommend you check out Dr Steenbarger's Traderfeed blog as well if you haven't already. A wealth of info about nyse $tick found there. I read back through it regularly.
The following user says Thank You to Xelaneb for this post:
Bull in full beast mode. ma solidly above zero line. few dips below the last 4 days. would at least wait for moving avg to break trendline before thinking of countertrend trades.
Please include a source link when quoting other material, such as Bespoke.
The problem with Bespoke is they've never published (to my knowledge) a graph that shows how accurate their own polls are, for example overlaying their poll sentiment with actual market performance.
