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YM day trading with price action - My Journey
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YM day trading with price action - My Journey

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FX/YM day trading with price action - My Journey

I day trade the Mini Dow/FX in a discretionary manner using the 5 min chart. I also take the occasional trade on the daily timeframe
if there is a suitable setup. My focus is on price action and chart patterns with 20ema as the sole indicator.

My trading plan

Instruments and time frame
instrument traded: Forex (euro/usd pair)
time of trade: first 1-2 hours from the US stock market open
method of analysis: price action with 20ema
timeframe: 5 minute chart

Entry conditions
signal bar is in the direction of the intended trade
setup price action is familiar or at least somewhat familiar

Order and risk management
order: stop or market order
trigger: 1 pip beyond the signal bar
reward risk ratio: 1 or more
stop: placed at 1 pip beyond the signal bar or at the nearest pivot high or low. Not more than 1% or 12 pips, whichever is lower.
target: placed at the next potential support or resistance

Exit conditions
price hits the target or stop

Money management
capitalisation: USD2,500
lot size: micro lot
Take a break from trading and accumulate capital if the account is down 5%

The aim of this journal is to be publicly accountable for my trades, progress and mistakes or relapses. Through regular reviews,
I aim to develop the patience and skill to take 1 good trade at a time.


Last edited by mrBean888; April 15th, 2014 at 12:02 PM.
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  #3 (permalink)
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All the best in your trading and journal. Cheers!

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4 April 2013 - 2 trades - Range Fade, Trend Reversal

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1) The first trade was a range fade setup.

Prior price bars was in a tight trading range with sideways, overlapping bars. There was a doji bar with an upper tail and I saw it as a signal bar based on 2 reasons:
1) Failed breakout from a tight trading range. Price ended up closing at the top of the TTR
2) The bar is a pin bar with a noticable upper tail.

The risk was also within limits.

The failed breakout eventually turned out into a breakout pullback. I was stopped out quickly on the same entry bar.
Result: -10 ticks

On review, I broke one of my rules (signal bar has to be in the direction of the entry). The pin bar was a doji instead of a bear bar. Also, the TTR was always above the ema and an upside breakout could always happen.


2) The second trade was a trend reversal setup

Price was on an uptrend and the recent bars overshot decisively above the bull channel line. I decided to take a short based on the 3 reasons:
1) Bull channel line overshoot
2) Bear pin bar with noticable upper tail
3) Price was far above the ema

The risk was within limits.

Price went down a little but the bears did not have much strength to push price decisively lower. Instead, price evolved into a TTR. I decided to manually exit as price did not have a decisive follow through to form a trend reversal or at least a 2 legged counter trend move, even after 4 bars.

Result: 2 ticks (Breakeven)

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11 April 2013 - Trend Reversal

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The trade is a Trend Reversal setup

PA and risk analysis
Price was on a strong uptrend and there was no noticeable pullbacks along the way. Price then formed a strong bull bar which broke the bull channel line. I started to watch for possible signs of weakness after the possible bull climax. I decided to take a short based on 2 reasons:

i) Bull channel overshoot
ii) Price has started to reverse from the peak and 2 counter trend legs could form. 3x bear bars have already formed
iii) Price is way above the ema and could fall back to at least the ema or lower bull channel line

The risk was within limits too.
Risk: 9 ticks, Target: 7 ticks

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop sell order with a protective stop placed at the signal bar high.

Emotions
I had mixed feelings. On 1 hand, purely on PA interpretation, I was certain that a reversal or at least 2 legs of counter trend move was imminent. On the other hand, I had doubts if the bear move would have any meaningful follow through. After all, the bull trend was strong. It is also the reason why I dared not set a more ambitious target.

Trade Management
During the trade, price did not move downwards as expected initially. Price wavered between forming a bull and bear bar. I became nervous and shifted the target limit up by a couple of ticks.


Exit
Price hit the adjusted target limit.
Result: 5 ticks

On review, I did follow my rules. There was a setup and there were more than 2 reasons for the entry, the signal bar was in the direction of the entry and risk amount was within limits. The entry was fine with no screwups.
During the trade, I did let my emotions get the better of me and led to cutting the trade prematurely. Partly, it is due to the need for more PA experience i think.

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16 April 2013 - Range Fade

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The trade is a range fade setup

PA and Risk analysis

There are many overlapping bars with noticable tails and the bars are grinding downwards gradually. A bear channel can be drawn. As price is moving both ways within the weak bear channel, I look for opportunities to enter at both the high and low of the channel. I noticed a 3 bar reversal at the channel low and decided to enter based on 3 reasons:

1) Bear channel overshoot
2) 2 failed attempts to push price down. Bulls pushed price back up, forming lower tails
3) Price at lower channel line

The risk was within limits also.
Risk: 12 ticks Target: 11 ticks

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop buy order.

Emotions
I experienced a roller coaster of emotions during the trade. Initially, price went up and I felt good. Price came to just 1 tick off the target and it stalled. It fell off a bit and went up again to 1 tick off the target. This repeated a few times. By this time, I was feeling anxious and was debating if I should drag the target limit lower.
I remembered my exit rules and left it alone. Price then fell back and reached the entry price. It fell again and went to the opposite situation, just 1 tick off the protective stop level. By this time, I was very frustrated and regretted not shifting the target limit down a bit. I went off the computer to get a drink.
Price then went back up again to the entry price. By this time, I just wanted to get out of the trade after going from feeling good to anxiety to frustration and regret and hope again.

Trade Management

I did not shift the target limit downwards as price came to within 1 tick of the limit. However, after seeing price come so close to both the target and the stop, I exited at market as price went back up to around break even. My emotions took control and I wanted to get out of a stressful situation without much rational thought.

Exit

I exited at the market around the entry price
Result: 4 ticks

On Review, pre-entry, price and risk analysis is good. I followed my rules. There was a good setup and more than 2 reasons to support the entry. The risk amount was also within limits. The entry was ok as well.
Emotion and trade management is no good and needs improvement. This is the 2nd time in a row where I exited prematurely only to see price hit the target. I have to stay firmer in following my exit rules.

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22 April 2013 - Pullback

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This is a pullback trade.

PA and risk analysis

Price was in a downtrend, below the ema and has reached the Low of Yesterday level. I looked out for a pause, a pullback up towards the ema and then possible weakness again. A Bear signal bar formed after price started to move up from the LOY level. I decided to take a short based on the following 3 reasons:
1) Possible 2nd leg in the pullback
2) Price is near to the ema
3) Bear reversal bar

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 14 ticks Target: 11 ticks

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop order and placed the stop at the signal Bear bar high.

Trade Management and Emotion

After I entered the trade, the entry bar was mostly bullish and gradually went up towards 1 tick off the protective stop. As price moved up with each tick, my heart sank and I started to doubt the trade more and more. By the close of the entry bar, I have decided that this trade would not reach the target and decided that exiting at break even is a good thing. I shifted the target limit up towards breakeven, even though it violates my exit rules.

Exit
Price went down on the next bar and hit the adjusted breakeven limit.
Result: 0 ticks (Breakeven)

On review, I did follow my entry rules. There was a good signal bar, more than 2 reasons for entry and the signal bar is in the direction of the entry. The risk is within limit and the entry execution is ok too.
Trade management and emotion is lacking again. This is the 3rd time in a row where emotions ruled my thoughts, I doubted the trade and did not give the trade enough time to run. Again, price hit the target after I exited prematurely.

Hence, I will set a goal to follow in order to stop exiting prematurely. Once I enter a trade with the stop and limit prices set, I'll go away from the computer and let the trade do its thing. After 15 minutes (3 bars), I'll take a look. If price has not reached either the target or stop, i'll look to exit. In this way, my exit plans will be followed.

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24 April 2013 - Trend Reversal

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This is a potential trend reversal trade.

PA and risk analysis

Earlier on, price was in a downtrend. It then had a 2 legged counter trend move which clearly broke the Bear trendline. Price went just above the ema followed by a with-trend test of the extreme. Price went down near to the prior low and bounced up, forming a Bull reversal bar. I decided to take a long based on 3 reasons:

1) There is a bear trendline break
2) Price tested the extreme and bounced off around the same area twice
3) The bull reversal bar could be a double bottom

The risk was also within limits.
Risk: 11 ticks Target: 10 ticks

Entry

I made an entry using a OCO stop buy order. The stop was placed at the signal bar low.

Trade Management and emotion

After entering the trade, I went away from the computer, had some chocolates and took a break in the living room.
It was helpful in controlling my emotions and I was calm. In the meantime, I left the stop and limit prices alone and let the trade do its thing. After 15 mins (3 bars), I went back to the computer to check out the trade.

Exit

Price hit the target limit.
Result: 9 ticks

On review, I followed my pre-entry rules. There was a setup and 3 reasons to support it. The signal bar was in the direction of the entry and the risk was within limits. The entry was ok.
I followed the new plan for trade management and got away from the computer after entering the trade to prevent my emotions from interfering with the trade.
It was a good move as price went up and fell back down to the entry before moving up to reach the target. Had I been watching the trade, i could let emotions take over and shift the target price to breakeven again. I plan to continue with this over the next few trades to see its effectiveness.


Last edited by mrBean888; April 24th, 2013 at 01:17 PM.
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4 May 2013 Friday - Pullback

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This is a pullback trade

PA and risk analysis

Price was in an uptrend and is above the ema. A bull trendline can be easily drawn. Price then moved flat at a top and looked to be forming a bull flag. I saw a high 2 bar forming and decided to enter a long in anticipation of a flag breakout. The reasons are:
1) Price is at the bull trendline
2) Possible end of 2 legged pullback

The risk was also within limits.
Risk: 12 ticks Reward: 11 ticks

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop buy order with the stop placed at 1 tick below the flag low.

Emotion and Trade Management

After entering the trade, i went off the computer for 15 mins. My emotions were more or less calm by being away from the screen. After 15 minutes, I went back to check on the trade.

Exit
The stop was hit.
Result: (12 ticks)

On review, the setup and reasons for entering were not convincing enough. Price seemed to be forming a bull flag but price dragged on in a flat manner and became a TTR. Also it was the 3rd push up from the market open.
Pullbacks in a trend are said to be high probability and low risk trades but somehow, I have difficulty identifying pullbacks which will continue in the trend and those which end up drifting sideways to form a correction.
For now, I need to be selective in choosing pullback trades. The setup and reasons for entering has to be convincing and clear:
- Near ema and/or trendline
- M2B or M2S
- Convincing signal bar
- Price not in a TTR already

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mrBean,

Any reason why your risk is a bit larger than your profit?

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