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YM day trading with price action - My Journey
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YM day trading with price action - My Journey

  #71 (permalink)
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20 feb 2014 - downtrend continuation

I made 3 trades last night and my performance was mixed. Price analysis was ok but while in the trades, I was a bundle of nerves.

Trade 1 (blue arrows):

I zoomed the chart out and saw that price was having lower highs and similar lows. A bear trend line can be drawn connecting the lower highs. When I looked at the chart, price had reached the bear trend line and had formed a lower high. Price was falling, had mostly bear bars and the prior bear bar just closed below a high during the prior upswing. Additionally, the upswing consisted of 3 pushes up to the bear trend line and it looked like a wedge. I looked for a short.

I entered on a market sell order at 1 pip below the bear signal bar. The stop was set at the high of the signal bar and the target was set at the prior extreme low. RR is 2.

My trade management was poor. I did not feel confident in the trade. After moving down a bit, price stalled and moved sideways-up. I was worried about taking a loss and interfered with the trade. Result is 1 pip.

Trade 2 (white arrows):

Price made a decisive bull move up which went above the ema. However, the sellers came in to push price back to near the low of the bar, forming a doji with a long upper tail with a close below the ema. I looked to enter short on the possibility of a failed bull breakout.

I entered on a sell stop order with an entry 1 pip below the doji bar low. The stop was placed at the doji bar high and the target was placed at the prior extreme low. RR is around 2.

Trade management was not good also. The entry bar became a bull pause bar and my confidence in the trade was shaken. There was then a bear bar down. A bull doji bar formed next and again, I was worried about taking a loss and manually closed the trade. Result is 2 pips.

Trade 3 (orange arrows):

After a bear bar down, price formed 2 sideways bull doji bars below the ema. This could be a bear flag. Price made a move up but went down from the ema to form a bear bar. I looked for a short as a bear flag below the ema could be forming. Price also had lower highs and lows and was mostly below the ema.

I entered on a stop sell order with the entry 1 pip below the flag low. The stop was placed at the high of the bear bar down and the target was placed at the extreme low. RR is between 1 to 2.

Trade management was improved but not good enough. I recognised that price was heading down and I should hold onto to the trade longer instead of bailing out too early. Although the bull bars in between made me feel uneasy, I stayed on because they could be pullbacks in a downtrend. Still, after seeing price move sideways a bit, i manually exited the trade.
Result is 4 pips.

Emotionally, I was a bundle of nerves while in the 3 trades. I reacted emotionally to price movements and was overcome by the fear of taking a loss. As a result, price analysis was largely correct but the result was poorer than what it could be.

On reflection, I did fine when it came to analysing price action during the session. I was calm when looking at the chart. Where I did poorly was during the trade. My fear of loss was strong and I exited prematurely thrice. Instead of a single trade with a larger profit, I made 3 trades and settled for less. I will work at keeping the discipline to stay in the trade and only manually exit when price is reaching the stop loss level.

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YM day trading with price action - My Journey-downtrend_zoomed-out.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-trades.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-ticket1.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-ticket2.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-ticket3.png  
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  #72 (permalink)
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I can tell your nerves by the amount of trades.

What was causing you to be nervous during the trade? Was it price action? Fear of loss? I would use this as an opportunity for you to identify and work in yourself on what was causing the fear.

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  #73 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
I can tell your nerves by the amount of trades.

What was causing you to be nervous during the trade? Was it price action? Fear of loss? I would use this as an opportunity for you to identify and work in yourself on what was causing the fear.

It was primarily fear of loss. During each of these trades, although price did not come close to the stop, it did not go down towards the target quickly. Instead, it went down a bit, had a pullback, then went down a bit and so on.

I think the fear comes from needing more experience in interpreting price action, the expectation of price heading down towards the target quickly which it did not and the fear of being wrong.

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  #74 (permalink)
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Weekly review - 17 to 21 feb 2014

Number of trades: 6
Wins: 5
Loses: 1
Net pips: 13

What I did not do well:
-> identifying a good probability uptrend pullback setup
-> feared being wrong and taking a loss leading potential winning trades being cut short

What I did well:
-> analysed price action calmly before deciding on an entry
-> made timely entries
-> followed up on last week's action items (checking for past support and resistance levels and waiting for a good signal bar in the direction of the intended entry)

What I aim to work on:
-> manually exit only when the trade is obviously losing its validity and is nearing the stop
-> avoid trading this sort of pullback setup: 2-3 legs of steep bull pushes followed by multiple consecutive bear bars to the ema

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  #75 (permalink)
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mrBean888 View Post
It was primarily fear of loss. During each of these trades, although price did not come close to the stop, it did not go down towards the target quickly. Instead, it went down a bit, had a pullback, then went down a bit and so on.

I think the fear comes from needing more experience in interpreting price action, the expectation of price heading down towards the target quickly which it did not and the fear of being wrong.

I agree, with experience comes the ability to determine buying and selling pressure more. In the past I have been scared out of positions because the next bar moved against me and I closed the position only to have that bar doji or close in my original direction and then the trade would have ended up positive.

Now, I only try to pay attention to the open and close of the bar, what happens in the middle is noise and I try to ignore. (with in respect to the context, after the close of a bar I will look at tails and the shapes of the bars to help me determine who is in control of the bar.)

Look into reading buying and selling pressure, and who owns the market (bulls/bears). That way it is easier to tell if a pullback is a pullback or a reversal.

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  #76 (permalink)
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You made need to backtest, backtest and backtest more to gain more confidence in your system. You may also want to establish trade management rules in your backtesting, so you will know exactly what you are going to do based on market movement. Things such as when to move/trail your stop, what your target should be on your trades/ your risk on trades, risk ratio..which is going to be most profitable for your system. You may also want to record the MAE on your trades to come up with your stops. Also record time in and out of profitable trades ( some may last 2 mins, some may last 30min etc.) Knowing all these things will help with your confidence and ability to let the trade work. Trading is about EXECUTION, that should be your main concern, not the winning and losing. It's all PROBABILITY.... you don't know when you are going to have that winning or losing position, your JOB is to EXECUTE correctly.

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24 feb 2014 - downtrend continuation and channel top

I made 3 trades the night before. I did not do well for the first 2 trades and did fairly ok for the third. Overall, the result was slightly negative.

Trade 1 (blue arrows)
When i zoomed the chart out, price was having lower lows and a bear trend line can be drawn connecting the lower highs. Price was rising in a bull channel and was falling from the bear trend line after forming a lower high. Price had 4 consecutive bear bars and was below the ema and prior low. I saw that a bear bar closed at its low followed by a bull doji bar which closed near its low.

I entered using a sell stop order and entered at 1 pip below the bear bar low. The stop was placed at the prior extreme high and the target was placed at a prior low in the bull channel. RR is between 1 and 2.

Trade management was ok. When price started to move up quickly, I realised that i had sold at a low and made a mistake of selling at a bull channel low. The bullish bar was followed by a bull bar which was a bear bar at first but became a bull bar after buyers pushed price up decisively. Price could move up more and I looked to exit.
Result is -9 pips.

Trade 2 (white arrows)
After mistakenly ignoring the bull channel in the first trade, I drew bull channel lines and also drew a strong resistance line after zooming the chart out. The resistance line was near the channel top too. After price went to the channel top and had a breakout, it fell decisively after briefing breaching the resistance level and channel top. It was also a channel overshoot. A clear bear reversal bar cum outside bar formed. I looked to enter on a short.

I placed a stop sell order and entered at 1 pip below the bear signal bar. The stop was placed 1 pip above the bear signal bar high and the target was placed at a prior low in the bull channel. RR is 2.

My trade management was mixed. I am not sure if it is good or not. On one hand, price moved against the trade decisively and was getting close to the stop so I exited manually. On the other hand, price did not hit the stop and would have hit the target and had a larger profit had i stayed on.
Result is -5 pips.

Trade 3 (orange arrows)
After the bull bar which i exited previously, a bear inside bar formed followed by a bear bar down. A slightly lower high below the resistance level and a lower high within the bull channel formed. Price was also at the major bear trend line which connected the lower highs. I looked to sell.

I placed a sell stop order at 1 pip below the signal bar low. The stop was placed at 1 pip above the lower high and the target was placed at the channel low. RR is 1.

Trade management was ok. I let the trade do its thing and exited at the channel low. Result is 10 pips.

Emotionally, for the trading session, it was better than the previous nerve wrecking session. However, I still felt discomfort while watching the trade. The good thing was that i was calm despite the first 2 losses and did not revenge trade. I still analysed price calmly and had reasonable reasons to enter.

On review, I made some mistakes. For the first trade, I did not follow my rules and did not enter after a good signal bar. I placed the stop sell order after the bull doji bar, thinking that there could be more to go after a weak bull bar. I would have saved 9 pips had i followed this simple rule.

Another mistake is to ignore the bull channel. I focused only on the major trend line while neglecting to draw the bull channel lines. When I saw price falling, it was already at the channel low and because i didnt think that it was important to draw the channel lines, i shorted at the bull channel low. It was lazy of me not to draw the channel lines and i paid for it.
I also noticed that when i am not good at trading channel breakouts. I need to watch out for channel overshoot -> strong reversal or a lower high or higher low within a channel first.

For the second trade, i'm still not sure if letting price do its thing or manually exiting to save a few pips is better. I think for now, i'll still go with manually exiting a losing trade which is closing in on the stop and see which is better.

For future trades, I will work on maintaining the discipline to only enter after a good signal bar. I will also take note of notable channels, trend lines and support/resistance lines and not to cherry pick one and ignore the rest. Additionally, i will look out for lower high or higher low within a channel, 3 pushes or a channel overshoot and reversal before trading channel breakouts. Otherwise, i will just trade in between the channel lines.

Attached Thumbnails
YM day trading with price action - My Journey-downtrend_zoomed-out.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-trade1.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-downtrend-channel-up_zoomed-out.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-trades-2-3.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-tickets2-3.png  

Last edited by mrBean888; February 25th, 2014 at 11:58 AM.
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26 feb 2014 - downtrend correction and bear flag

In a zoomed out view, price had a downtrend with lower highs and lows then an upside correction which broke the bear trend line (not drawn) and transited into a trading range. As price went back to the range high, it did so in a bull channel (not drawn). Price at the range high also formed a lower high within the bull channel and a potential double top with a prior high. Overall, the correction looked to peter out after a long downtrend and price could head lower.

Price fell from the range high, bull channel high and potential double top and broke below the range low. Price then formed a bull doji bar which was a strong bull bar but fell off its high to form an upper tail. Another bull doji inside bar followed. This could be a bear flag and breakout pullback. The next bar started off as a bull bar but became a bear bar and price broke below the flag lines. I looked for a short.

I entered using a sell market order and entered when price broke below the flag line. The stop was placed 1 pip above the flag high and the target was placed at a major support level (lowest horizontal yellow line). RR is 1.

Trade management was ok. Price headed down quickly on the entry bar. Price almost reached the target level and started to stall. I stayed on in the trade because price was in the anticipated direction and there was no reason to interfere.
Result is 7 pips. Duration is 2 bars.

On review, I made a good trade in a long time. I followed my to-do action items and stayed calm when analysing price action, entering and managing the trade.

Attached Thumbnails
YM day trading with price action - My Journey-downtrend-correction_zoom-out.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-trade.png  
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27 feb 2014 - upswing pullback

Price was heading down with lower highs and lows. A bear trend line can be drawn connecting the highs. Price had a bullish upswing followed by a TTR hovering just below a strong resistance line. I saw that price did not fall from the resistance line and thought that it could be a pause before pushing higher. Price was also not near the falling bear trend line. I looked for a long above the TTR.

I placed a stop order buy trade at 1 pip above the TTR high. The stop was placed at the TTR low and the target was placed at where the falling bear trend line would be. RR is 1.

Trade management is ok. I did not interfere with the trade.
Result is -9 pips. Duration is 4 bars.

Emotionally, i was calm overall. When the trade hit the stop, i felt disappointed but the negative feelings were not strong and i did not have the desire to enter trades to make up for the loss.

On review, my price action analysis was not good in this case. I underestimated the significance of the overall trend and the presence of a strong resistance line. Just because price did not fall straight away after reaching resistance does not mean that there will be a break out soon. I ought to take into account the overall trend and the importance of support/resistance lines. This is also not a setup that i am familiar or confident in.

Attached Thumbnails
YM day trading with price action - My Journey-downtrend_zoomed-out.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-trade1.png  

Last edited by mrBean888; February 28th, 2014 at 06:35 AM.
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27 feb 2014 - wedge at resistance and bear trend line


Price looked to be in a trading range which was gently going down with lower highs and lows. A bear trend line can be drawn connecting the lower highs. A support line can also be drawn connecting the lower lows. Price was heading up from a low. The price bars were bullish with higher highs and lows. Halfway through the range, buyers looked to be more urgent and the slope of the lows increased. A wedge shape was becoming clear. With price approaching the bear trend line, a horizontal resistance line with a prior high, a wedge shape forming with 3 pushes up and being far above the ema, i looked for a sell opportunity.
A bear bar formed at the top but i didnt enter because the prior upmove was strong and it was better to wait for a 2nd entry. A second bear bar formed after the bull bar before it failed to push upward.

I entered on a market sell order at 1 pip below the bear bar. The stop was placed at the prior wedge high and the target was placed at a support level. RR is 1.

Trade management was ok. As the trade proceeded, price appeared to stall a few times but i controlled my discomfort and held on in the trade because it was not a losing one.
Result is 9 pips. Duration is 8 bars.

Emotionally, i was calm overall when analysing price action, making the entry and when in the trade. There was some discomfort but it was not strong.

On review, this was a fairly good trade. There were quite a number of price action reasons for entry and my execution of the trade entry and management was fine.

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YM day trading with price action - My Journey-range_zoomed-out.png   YM day trading with price action - My Journey-trade2.png  
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