Thanks for posting your analysis and trade setups. Since a trend line break appears to be key entry set up for you, you might want to review a tick chart and see how you would do on paper or the SIM. They are often a little clearer much less bar overlap at a lower time frame (like a 133 tick chart).
The challenge is that it's a trade off. For example, if you look at a 2000 tick ES chart, certain patterns, like trend channels become much clearer. If you look at the 250 tick ES, it looks totally different - basically up and down swings in a very tight channel. If you just took every trend line break in the direction of the 20 EMA in a 133 tick YM chart, you would probably have more smaller trades but probably more winners.
Personally, I find it very hard to watch a 5 min chart - too much can happen in a 5 min span. If you are trading price action, I think tick charts do a much better job showing the ebb and flow of price action. Even though you might be looking at a "faster" tick chart like a 133 tick (I am sure others have a recommended YM tick setting), you can still pick and choose your entry but seeing the patterns in a tick chart lets you fine tune your entries.
The following user says Thank You to tom1presto for this post:
Earlier on price had a steep upswing with 4 consecutive strong bull bars. It then had a staggered pullback with alternating trend bars. Price reached the the HOY level and formed a bull inside bar. I decided to take a long as the HOY level could act as a support level, there was a bull inside bar and the pullback had bull bars in between. i.e. it was not too bearish
I entered using an OCO stop buy order. The stop (red line) was placed at the bull inside bar low and the target (green line) was placed a same distance away and was also near a minor pivot high. Both risk and reward are 10 ticks.
After confirming that the entry was entered correctly, I looked away from the chart and listened to some music. I did not intefere with the trade and felt calm.
The stop was hit.
Result: -10 ticks
Price had a small bounce up from the ema and formed a bull doji bar with an upper tail next. Price then formed a strong bear bar down.
On review, the trade selection was not a good one. I think it is both a lack of discipline and poor PA analysis. I did not follow my setup flowchart which is to take 2 legged pullbacks to the ema. Also, this pullback is so-so at best. Although there were bull bars in the pullback, the high 1 bar is not clear and decisive. Pullbacks continue to be my weak point and I need to have conviction to follow the setup flow chart and not be tempted to take subpar pullbacks.
Thanks for the suggestion tom. I am not familiar with the tick chart but will definitely take a look at it and try it in Sim. The 5 min chart can have lots of overlapping bars at times and staying disciplined can be a challenge!
I am currently reading Bob Volman's book on forex price action and he uses tick charts for his trading too.
The following user says Thank You to mrBean888 for this post:
I have decided to drop 2 legged pullback setups. Good 2 legged pullbacks to the ema seem to occur rarely on the YM and when a pullback looks to be forming, I often find it hard to stay on the sidelines if it is not a M2B or M2S. Inevitably, i fall to temptation once in a while and take a pullback trade which ends up failing, which just happened today. Then, my emotions and confidence are affected again.
I dont know why pullbacks are such an archilles heel for me when they look so clear and easy on hindsight and when it seems highly recommended by trading authors. My record with pullbacks in a trend is poor.
Anyway, i will just focus on trading channels and trendline breaks. Fewer setups hopefully leads to a better focus and mastery of the setups. I will also observe price behaviours like breakout pullbacks or wedge formations.
Price had a strong bull breakout bar followed a small flag. A second breakout formed and price formed a tight trading range after the breakout. I drew parallel channel lines around the flag, second breakout and tight trading range. I decided to take a long because price had a bull bar bounce off the lower channel line, the lows of the bars are getting higher while the highs are about the same. An ascending triangle could also be forming.
I took a stop long OCO order. The stop was placed at the signal bar low and the target was placed a similar distance away. The risk is 8 ticks and the reward is 10 ticks. The entry bar is marked by an aqua coloured arrow.
I looked at other applications after entering the trade. I did not manually interfere with the target level and did not feel the urge to do so. However, i also forgot to shift the stop to 2-3 ticks under the entry bar after the entry bar closed.
exit and post trade pa
Price hit the stop
Result: -8 ticks
Price proceeded to go down and formed 5 bear bars in a row.
On review, I did not make a good trade. Firstly, the signal bar has both upper and lower tails and is not a convincing bull reversal bar. Secondly, i forgot to shift the stop to reduce my risk after the entry bar has closed. The channel line was also not the best although after a strong initial upswing followed by price inching up, there could be another upmove.
Price had a failed earlier bull flag breakout and ascending triangle setup and broke down with 5 bear bars in a row. After the break down, a bull bar formed and price was back near the bull flag breakout level. A bear reversal bar formed and I decided to take a short. The bear reversal bar attempted to go back up the break-down level but failed, forming an upper tail. Also, after 5 bear bars in a row, there could be a second leg down.
I entered using an OCO stop sell order. The stop was placed at the bear reversal signal bar high and the target was placed at the low of the prior bull bar pullback. The risk is 4 ticks and the reward is 6 ticks.
I did not interfere with the target level of the trade and was calm when the trade played out.
Price hit the target.
Result: 6 ticks
Price formed a TTR around the ema after the exit.
On review, the trade is ok. I followed my rules and goals. The RR ratio is alright and I did not interfere with the target level. I have to follow up and continue to take only good trades.
I am not sure what the prices were on the chart or the time of the trade. I wonder if you were buying near yesterdays day session high (15488?). Also, there are a fair amount of doji bars that indicate indecision prior to your entry. Finally, I recall Al saying he likes to buy after "bull trend bars" and sell after "bear trend bars. It appears u should have bought after the large bull trend bar.
Today was quiet in YM ahead of very significant news tomorrow. It was a BLSH type day.