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YM day trading with price action - My Journey
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YM day trading with price action - My Journey

  #11 (permalink)
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4 May 2013 Friday - Range Fade

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This is a channel fade trade

Pre-entry Analysis

In terms of Price Action, price was in a gentle bear channel with up and down swings within the channel. As price
approached the lower channel line, I started to watch out for a possible upswing. I decided to wait for a confirmation bull bar because overall, the channel is sloping downwards and the 2 prior reversal bars are small bear bars. Eventually, price did move up from the lower channel line and had a 3 bar reversal setup. I decided to take a long based on 3 reasons:

1) Price has bounced up from the lower channel line
2) There were 2 prior reversal bars where bulls pushed price upwards from the lower channel line
3) It could be the end of a 2 legged down move

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 11 ticks Target: 7 ticks

In terms of Emotion, I was calmer as the price movement was more familiar compared to the losing pullback trade made earlier in the day and also had a "don't care whether this trade is a win or a loss" mindset. Additionally, I wanted to make a good trade which met the rules of the trading plan to compensate for the earlier losing trade where 1 of the basic rules was not met.

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop buy order with the stop placed at the low of the prior bar. The target was set at the top channel line.

Trade Management

During the trade, I did not go away from the computer although i watched some documentaries on youtube. Overall, I was calm, probably due to a combination of reasons. The setup is a more familiar one and i was having a "the trade result is not that important" mindset. Also, it was late in the night and there was probably not enough energy to get worked up.

Exit

The trade hit the target limit price.
Result: 7 ticks

On review, pre-entry was fine and i followed the rules. The entry was ok and the risk was within limit.
Trade management was ok too as there was no manual interference with the trade.

1 thing i need to look at is the RR ratio. So far, the risks are greater than the targets and this is something i'm going to look at next.

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  #12 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
mrBean,

Any reason why your risk is a bit larger than your profit?

I think it is both emotions and a lack of a plan for setting targets.

Unlike setting a stop where the plan is to set it at the signal bar extreme and the max risk for any trade is 15 ticks, I have not set a clear plan for placing target prices yet. (Usually, i look at the prior pivot high or low)

Emotionally wise, admittedly, everytime i put on a trade, i have this nagging doubt about whether the trade will have enough strength to hit the prior pivot high/low or not, so sometimes, i set it to a few ticks off the the prior pivot.

Also, irrationally, 10 ticks seem to be the magic number for me ( dont know why). If the trade can reach 10 ticks, i'm happy. So sometimes, even though the prior pivot high or low is more than 10 ticks away, I dare not set it to that level and place it at or around 10 ticks. Probably, its the fear of a winning trade turning into a loss or BE.
Another thing is the lack of faith in the setups i guess.

I do notice this pattern and will look into it, especially the winning trades so far to see if the targets have been set too low and for the losers, if there are cases where the trade almost touches the target and becomes a loss instead.

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  #13 (permalink)
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In your last 100 trades can you say how many times prices hit the prior pivot high/low vs just a few ticks shy of it before hitting your stop loss at various distances, say -5..-10 etc.?

You need to backtest your setups using different setiings and start from there. This is usually how we build some confidence. I know it's dull to do but it needs to be done.

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  #14 (permalink)
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6 May 2013 Monday - Breakout, Range Fade

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There were 3 trades. 1 breakout and 2 range fade trades.

Overall, it was not a good trading day. I did not follow my plan fully for each trade with mistakes made either in the entry or exit. Additionally, my emotions took the better of me at times.

1st Trade: Breakout

Pre-Entry Analysis
Price had a big swing up following a big swing down and was at the prior pivot high. Even though breakout is not a setup which i trade, i decided to give it a try and entered into a long based on the following reasons.
1) Price was on a strong upswing and after a failed breakout earlier (the bear bar with a long upper tail), another bull bar with a lower tail formed. I interpreted it as a possible breakout pullback
2) The bear bar could be the end of the first leg and the second leg could be a breakout

The risk was within limits. Risk: 10 ticks Target: 9 ticks

Emotionally wise, I was aware that breakouts are not part of my trading setup but the urge to give it a shot was strong. A lot of it was due to market action over the past week where there were sharp reversals and breakouts with little/no pullback. I did not enter and didn't feel good about seeing price shoot off.

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop buy order.

Trade Management
It was poor. I stayed at the computer and my emotions got the better of me. At the start of the trade, it hit home that i had broken my rules and to rub it in, price went a few ticks up and started to fall decisively. I felt angry at myself for letting fear and greed take control and also felt a bit helpless.

As price approached the stop level, i became fearful and cancelled the stop. Price hit the stop and stayed there for a while. At that time, i decided that enough is enough and exited at market.

Exit and Post Trade PA
Exited at market. Result: -12 ticks
After hitting the stop, price went down a lot more.


2nd Trade: Range Fade

Pre entry Analysis
After exiting with a loss, i saw that there was an opportunity. Previously, the breakout had failed and was falling from the prior pivot high. Price had a big down, up and was starting to fall again. I treat it as a trading range session. I decided to take a short based on 2 reasons:
1) Price was falling from the the top of the range
2) There were already 2 bear bars which closed at their lows. There could more to go.

The risk was within limit. Risk: 8 ticks Target: 10 ticks

Regarding emotion, I wasn't feeling very confident. Reasons being the decision was made very quickly and it was the opposite stance to what i had taken earlier. There wasn't as much time to contemplate and i wasn't sure if i was making another rash trade although the setup looks reasonable and the risk was within limits. The loss from the first trade also affected me emotionally.

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop sell order with the stop placed at the prior bar high.

Trade Management
It was not good. The negative feelings from the first trade plus the lack of confidence in this trade made me very stressful. Price also went up initially and i was thinking that i had screwed up again in a rash trade. I decided to override the target limit and manually exit instead, even though 3 bars had not yet passed. When price went down past the entry and started to stall a bit, I quickly exited manually at market. Again, I broke my rules by not leaving the computer and interfered with the trade.

Exit and Post trade PA
Exited at BE with some profit. Result: 7 ticks
Price continued downwards, hit the original target limit and went down more.


3rd Trade: Range Fade

Pre-entry Analysis
Price was approaching the low of the trading range, which is the prior pivot low and there was a bear bar with buyers pushing up from near the low, forming a lower tail. A small bull bar with an upper tail and then a stronger bull bar formed. I decided to enter a long position based on 2 reasons:
1) Price was showing signs of bouncing up from the trading range low
2) The setup looks somewhat like a 3 bar reversal, although it is not a textbook one.

The risk was within limits. Risk: 11 ticks Target: 10 ticks

Emotionally, I wanted to make a trade which obeyed the entry rules and was somewhat calmer by then.

Entry
I entered on an OCO buy stop order with the stop placed at the prior bar low.

Trade Management
It was not good again. I panicked and did stupid things when initially, price did not move up as hoped. Price went up, fell back to form a higher pivot low and moved up. At the back of my mind, i saw that although price went down initially, it did not show much bearish strength. Nonetheless, I just wanted to exit and dragged the target limit price downwards by several ticks.

Exit and Post trade PA
Price hit the adjusted target limit. Result: 5 ticks
Price continued up, hit the original target limit and eventually broke out of the trading range.

On review, it was not a good day. My emotions took over especially during trade management when price initially did not move as hoped. Additionally, i took a trade which was not my setup, as a punt. Greed, fear and lack of confidence are my weaknesses. There is still lots of work to do in terms of sticking to the trade plan. I am planning to do a thorough journal review with regards to trade management and exits.

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  #15 (permalink)
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10 May 2013 Thursday - Range Fade

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Range Fade

Pre-entry Analysis
Price has been in a trading range as shown by no clear trending movement, non directional ema and with many bars having noticable tails. Earlier on, price made a big move up, then a big move down. A reversal bar formed at the TR low and price started to move up. There was a small consolidation with higher lows forming near the TR low. I decided to take a long due to 3 reasons:
1) Price has moved up from the TR low
2) Higher pivot lows were forming at the consolidation near the TR low
3) The bull signal bar showed bullish strength as the bar was forming

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 9 ticks Target: 9 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm and had some confidence in the setup. Even though it was not exactly a buy at the low of the range, price was still near the TR low and the bulls looked stronger.

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop buy order. The stop was placed at the signal bar low and the target was 1 tick off the High of Yesterday (HOY) level.

Trade Management
I went away from the computer for a while and it helps to keep me calm. There was no urge to interfere with the trade e.g. adjust the target limit price. I was also mindful of the importance of sticking to the plan and had a mindset that the result of the trade did not really matter.

Exit and Post Trade PA
The trade hit the target limit level.
Result: 9 ticks

Price went a bit beyond the target limit level and attempted to break out of the HOY level but did not succeed. Nonetheless, there was no clear failure and a TTR formed below the HOY level.

On review, it was a satisfying session as there was a winning trade and I followed the plan fully. My emotions were under control and there was no interference in the trade. An important part of this calm feeling is the mindset that the result is not a make or break situation. I need to continue this mindfulness of following the plan, maintaining a calm mind and not to emphasize too much on a trade result, which is something I cannot control.


Last edited by mrBean888; May 10th, 2013 at 01:41 PM.
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  #16 (permalink)
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16 May 2013 Thursday - Range Fade

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Range fade trades

1st Trade:

Pre-entry analysis

Price was grinding upwards in a bull channel with lots of overlapping bars. Price was trading both ways and I was looking for opportunities to enter near the channel lines. As price was in a tight trading range at the channel low, i decided to take a long based on 2 reasons:
1) There was a failed breakout from the bull channel line earlier on and price had reversed back into the channel
2) The sideways move was near the channel low

The risk was within limits. Risk: 14 ticks Target: 15 ticks

I broke my pre entry rules for this trade. I did not wait for the bar to close. Also, the prior bar was a bull doji and was not a good signal bar. I was somewhat ruled by emotion. After 2 days of "no action", i was a little uncomfortable with not making a trade for a 3rd consecutive day. Also, i feared missing out on a possible strong up-move to the channel top. Also, it was a mix of a TTR breakout and a range fade.

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop buy order with the stop placed at the entry bar low and the target near the top channel line.

Trade Management

I went away from the computer. My emotions were calm and did not interfere with the trade.

Exit and post trade PA

Price hit the stop level.
Result: -14 ticks

After hitting the stop, price reversed up, had a couple of overlapping bars before breaking out to form a higher pivot high at the channel top.

On review, I did not follow my basic pre-entry rules.
On reflection, i noticed that when i break my pre entry rules, my mind will be filled with thoughts on how the price action is excellent for an entry and my emotion is dominated by the need to avoid missing out on a good run up. There is a small voice in my mind which says that i am breaking a rule but it does not register. Only when i entered and is stopped out or when price starts to move against the entry do I "wake up" and fully realise that i had broken a rule.

I need to build up real time self awareness and be aware whenever i feel the need to enter a trade to avoid missing out on a strong up-move. Usually, this involves some sort of breakout when a bar which is showing signs of strength looks very tempting.


2nd Trade:

Pre-entry analysis

After getting stopped out, I noticed that the bar turned into a bull reversal bar. I decided to take a long entry based on 2 reasons.
1) Bull reversal bar at the bull channel low
2) Price has been forming higher lows previously and it is also forming a higher low now.

The risk was within limits. Risk: 11 ticks. Target: 10 ticks

Emotionally, even though i was just stopped out, i was calm about this trade as it is a familiar one.

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop buy order with the stop placed at the signal bar low and the target placed in the middle of the channel.

Trade Management

I went away from the computer and did not watch the price move tick by tick. I felt calm and did not interfere with the trade.

Exit and post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Result: 10 ticks

Price had a couple of alternating sideways bars before breaking out to hit the channel top.

On review, I followed my rules and kept a steady mind and heart. The trade was exited according to an exit condition. However, i have to be bold in setting bigger targets.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Trade Review 1

I did a review of the trades during the weekend and list the findings below.

- 4 trades were exited at BE. 3 of them were due to manual inteference and all 3 hit the target eventually.

- 6 trades hit the target. 2 of these targets were intefered with and they hit the original target eventually. 5 of the 6 trades went beyond the target by at least a few ticks.

- 4 trades were stopped out. All 4 broke one or more of the pre-entry rules and hit the stop target promptly.

- 5 trades were intefered with. All 5 are due to getting anxious and worked up while watching price tick by tick

- All losing trades involve either a TTR or a breakout

- More than half the winning trades have a reversal bar or a 3BR. There are noticable tails which show price rejection

- More than half of the winning setups are in a channel. The rest are trendline breaks and pullbacks

- Price is able to reach the prior pivot high/low or technical level as a target

Conclusions:

* Inteference sabotages trades and profits
* Watching every tick builds up anxiety while in a trade
* Targets can be bigger
* Rash entries or breaking pre-entry rules lead to losing trades
* I am not good at trading TTRs or breakouts
* Reversal and 3BR are good signal bars if the context is right
* Channels work best so far, followed by trendline breaks and pullbacks

Top 3 to work on:

-> Let the trade do its thing. No inteference
-> Set larget targets (at least at the prior pivot high/low or a technical level)
-> Avoid TTR and breakout price action

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  #18 (permalink)
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21 May 2013 Tuesday - Trend Reversal

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Trend Reversal setup

Pre-entry Analysis

Price was in an uptrend within a channel and there was a bull channel overshoot. Price reached the High of Yesterday level and had a failed intra-bar breakout followed by a bear inside cum reversal bar. I decided to take a short based on 3 reasons:
1) Price had a channel overshoot and is near the HOY level
2) Failed breakout at HOY level
3) Price is far away from the ema

The risk was within limit.
Risk: 13 ticks (signal bar high)
Target: 11 ticks (prior pause doji bar low. 9 ticks + 2 ticks)

Emotionally, I was calm as the entry plan was followed and I had taken such setups before. However, there was still a bit of uncertainty as the overshoot towards the HOY level looked rather bullish.

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop buy order.

Trade Management

After the trade was entered, I switched to other windows and listened to some music. I took a look at price occasionally but did not dwell on watching it tick by tick. Overall, I was calm and had no urge to interfere with the trade. I did feel a bit nervous when I looked back and saw that price went against the trade initially. However, i continued to switch to other windows, listened to music and did not get all worked up.

Exit and Post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Result: 11 ticks

Price continued in a steep down swing and broke the ema and lower channel line. There was a bull pause bar before another steep second leg down swing occurred.

On review, I followed my rules and followed the top 3 to-do action plans: No trade interference, no TTR or Breakout trades, set bigger targets. For this trade, i set the target to be a couple of ticks wider beyond the prior minor support. Given how much price has moved, i still need to do more reviews on setting targets.

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30 May 2013 Thursday - Range Fade

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Range Fade

Pre entry

After a sharp upswing, price started to have a 2 legged pullback to the ema, rose up to form a slightly higher low and had a downswing to form a slightly lower low. A bullish inside bar formed and it looked like a bear channel could be forming. 2 channel lines could be drawn. After a bull follow through following the bull inside bar, i decided to take a long position based on 3 reasons:
1) Price was moving up from the lower channel line
2) A 3BR variant formed. Bullish inside bar followed by another bull follow through bar
3) Price action was gentle and wavey within the channel

The risk was within limit. Risk: 14 ticks Target: 8 ticks

I did not concentrate fully on the chart as i was talking and watching youtube videos. Hence, i was not fully sure of the trade and did not prepare the order early. I quickly calculated the risk but was anxious, did not find a target point and arbitarily set it to around 10 ticks.

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop buy order. The stop was placed on the signal bar low and the target was arbitarily set.
The order was not done well. In my haste, i entered the entry price at 2 ticks above the intended entry price. Hence, the target was 8 ticks away, instead of 10.

Trade

During the trade, I switched over to the web browser and did not watch the price tick by tick. Overall, i was calm, although i felt a bit anxious because the entry was a bit screwed up.

Exit and Post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Result: 8 ticks

Price paused on the next bar, then went up to the channel high and had a failed breakout. Price then meandered in a TTR at the channel top.

On review, the trade reasoning was sound while the entry and reward calculation was not good. As i wasn't fully concentrating, the order was prepared late and in a haste, I made a mistake when entering the entry price and did not properly calculate the target level.

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4 June 2013 Tues, Range Fade or Trend Reversal


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Trend reversal cum Range Fade

Pre entry Analysis

Price was in a gentle upmove when it broke down sharply past the trendline, ema, prior higher pivot lows and HOY level. It reached near the prior pivot low where buyers came into the picture to form a bear bar with a lower tail. Price then formed another bull doji bar where bulls again pushed price up from the same level. A bull follow through bar formed with a close at the high. This is a 3BR setup. I decided to take a long based on 2 reasons:
1) 2x price rejections off a prior pivot low followed by a bull FT
2) Price is far below the ema
3) A 2 legged move up could occur

This has some elements of a range fade and trend reversal. Price formed a big up and then a big down swing. (Trading Range) It also broke a bull trendline and could have a with-trend test after the trendline break (Trend Reversal).

The risk was within limits. Risk: 15 ticks Target: 11 ticks (1 tick off the ema)

Emotionally, I was calm as i followed the pre-entry rules. However, i had a bit of uncertainty as the HOY resistance level was quite near and the prior down swing was strong.

Entry

I entered on an OCO buy stop order. The target was placed 1 tick below the ema value as i thought that price could make a 2 legged move up to the ema.

Trade

During the trade, i shifted some of my attention to other apps and did not watch the price move tick by tick. I felt a bit anxious as price initially formed a bear bar. However, i thought that the bear bar was the end of the first leg and a second leg up could still occur.

Overall, I was emotionally steady and did not have the urge to interfere with the trade.

Exit and Post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Result: 11 ticks

Price formed a TTR, edged upwards a bit more to form a lower high test after a trendline break and then fell more to form a lower low.

On review, I followed my rules, was calm and the let the trade run its course. It was a good trade.

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