Was the context supportive? Yes
Price was moving up but was in a wedge shape. It was also near a resistance level. In the zoomed out view, price was ranging and was near the top of the trading range. Just above the ema, price formed a bear reversal bar followed by a bear bar. This could be a 3 bar bear reversal.
Order: Stop sell order
RR: less than 1
Result: 3 pips
Price hit the target on the entry bar and formed a single bar bear spike.
A couple of thoughts - you can go broke scalping forex. Spreads are too high to be scalping 3 to 10 ticks. Also - there are only three kinds of trades, reversals, breakouts and pullbacks. If you know what kind of market you are in you can usually eliminate 2 out of the 3 types of trades. All the pattern recognition in the world won't make you any money if you don't know what type of market you are in.
Lastly - have you done any testing on any of these setups? If you actually want to have confidence when you trade you need to do some back testing. Find 30-50 examples of a descending triangle on the time frame and instrument you trade. Figure out how often they are successful, where the best point for entry is, where your stop should go etc. Armed with knowledge fear starts to dissolve.
Really lastly - David Weis likes to use the analogy of fishing when discussing trade location. If you are fishing in a lake you want to stick around the edge of the lake, not fish in the middle if you want to catch fish. It's the same with trading. Currently most of your entries are in the middle of the lake. It feels safe because you have some confirmation behind you but inherently the middle is where whipsawing happens. You might consider a better balance between price risk and information risk. If you get in earlier you risk is reduced, your stop can go above meaningful structure and your reward will be greater trading the same moves.
And the day came when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom
- Anais Nin
Last edited by YertleTurtle; June 2nd, 2014 at 11:07 PM.
[YertleTurtle ] A couple of thoughts - you can go broke scalping forex. Spreads are too high to be scalping 3 to 10 ticks.[/]
Not accurate, you can get very good spread + comms + slippage, with UK or Aussie brokers, my average EU spread is 0.1 pip, often can be seen at -0.3 during London trading hours, comms $5.50/RT/lot, slippage (non news trade) 0.1, ... much cheaper than 6E.
[YertleTurtle ] If you get in earlier you risk is reduced, your stop can go above meaningful structure and your reward will be greater trading the same moves.[/]
Agreed, but everything is a trade off, there is no perfect solution, if you can get earlier entry with small stop then your trade is more prone to a losing streak.