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Almost Skilled (YM)


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Almost Skilled (YM)

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  #1 (permalink)
Prague
 
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 31 received

Well, I have to try everything... I want to be trader
I'm having huge problems with pulling the trigger, I can't place trades, maybe this place, where I can put my thoughts on paper, be accountable to others, and maybe get some advice, maybe it will help.

Story so far

After 3 years of preparation (first flirting with trading spring 2008) and papertrading I opened an account (november 2011). My strategy was tested on about 9months worth of data. Something similar to Woodies, based on CCI, trend strategy, buying into dips.
Unfortunately I entered the market in November 2010, very volatile time. I wasn't successful, and I lost money. I went back to paper trading, but I had feeling my strategy doesn't work. My results were bad. Suddenly market wasn't moving in steady way, it just jumped to another level, then moved to side, again jumped to another level, again to the side. I was trading ES that time - looking back, I should have started with market like NQ or YM
I tried to modify my strategy for 6 months, different time frames, little changes nothing major, but I couldn't get better then BE.

I scratched everything, built new strategy.

New strategy description
ADX - DMI, breakout from SR
Volatility indicators ATR and Boolinger band width as support indicator (breakout is accompanied with raising volatility)
At first I was testing SR, and pivots to indetify good places for breakout, and for targets where market can stop, wasn't exactly satisfied
Moved to Volume profiles, good for both tasks + some insight for SL placement
I do my homework every day, 30min before opening, I identify good places for doing business where breakout and move can happened, and where to place target.
My standard SL is from 8 to 10T in YM market, Targets at least 14T, otherwise I don't take trade if I don't see possibility for such move. Good target for me is 18T on first trade of the day. After that I'm willing to give it more space, target 25T.
I trade only morning sesion, first ~2h

Where is the problem?
Backtest on data from May 2011 till Feb 2013 (no Dec no Jan)(8months total) 295 trades, 5261$ (one contract traded) after fees. So it's viable way

But I cant place real trades. After that bad experience, after loosing money (about 15% of my account - 48 trades total) I'm scared. And I don't have it under control I have to do something with it. I do understand that losses are part of the business, theory is theory, but when there is time to pull the trigger I somehow can't.

What woke me up was this Monday 25th of March, nice big move that day. My homework identified good zones for trading, and on SIM i did 42T. I couldn't place a trade. I always switched back to SIM , frustrating. I also made decision to make a Journal here, and try to be more active on forum.
So I have to take more serious approach. I cleaned up my journal, prepared for new 2013Q2, and I want to put full effort into breaking this misery. And now I do understand it is not about methodology, but my psychology. And I'm afraid a little, that I'm damaged, and getting it fixed will take some serious effort. If someone can, plz help, thx.

My journal:
excel
one note - picture of every order placement, fill, SL move, Target move, closing the trade + small comment

Platform:
Sierra chart, Market YM

Task for this journal:
Post Game plan if I have time before trading, if not after
Post my day effort, + some comment

Task for April
Place one trade according to tested strategy and game plan each day (to take one opportunity a day)

Cya for now

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  #3 (permalink)
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SadPraetor View Post
If someone can, plz help, thx.

I can say you have two issue - 1. Trusting your system 2. Trading with Scared money.If you want to stick with YM, I suggest start with trading its ETF equivalent DIA. Start with 100 shares of DIA and increase size as you become more confident and once you see postive returns for few months move to YM. Do not mind 1 or 2 cents difference in execution between YM and DIA at this point.

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  #4 (permalink)
Prague
 
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 31 received

Homework

What I see can happened today

1) possible move to ON top, 556, and a little bit more, but at least the test of the high
Im not looking for a trade, move on top of the composite is volatile, weak, not fast, for the first trades I want better odds

2) rotation 533-556
3) fall to 500 or more to 480
looking for a short ~530 with target somewhere ~510, if good moves possible more

4) after fall possible rotation 450-500

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  #5 (permalink)
Lubbock TX
 
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SadPraetor View Post
Suddenly market wasn't moving in steady way, it just jumped to another level, then moved to side, again jumped to another level, again to the side.

What you describe is very normal. Markets move from level to level. That's just the way it is. That used to bother me like it apparently does you. But now, I look at that kind of action as opportunities. Why do you put up a 1 minute chart of your favorite instrument just as an exercise and look at that behavior. You might see something that you haven't seen before.

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  #6 (permalink)
Lubbock TX
 
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Here...take a look at CL this morning as an example. Notice the large 1 minute bars or series of consecutive 1 minute bars followed by sideways action. Then another minute bar or series followed by sideways action. that happens every day.

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  #7 (permalink)
Denver, CO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: T4/TOS
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Posts: 110 since Jun 2012
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SadPraetor View Post
Well, I have to try everything... I want to be trader
I'm having huge problems with pulling the trigger, I can't place trades, maybe this place, where I can put my thoughts on paper, be accountable to others, and maybe get some advice, maybe it will help.

I suggest you read "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. This is a great book to understand and improve your emotions. It will teach you about yourself and the random nature of any given trade.

Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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  #8 (permalink)
Prague
 
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 31 received

Thank you for your time and advice guys

I'll think about DIA, but I'm risking not even a 1% of my trading account on a trade. What is more puzzling to me, is that i play actively online poker, which I find very like trading. Money management, accepting loss, stay calm. I'll give futures at least a chance, I believe I just have to break first few trades.

"Trading in the zone'' is on my reading list, right now I'm going through Brett Steenbarger books.

These days I'm focusing on keeping stress from other parts of my life on the minimum, no drama, and "visualizing" trading. I go through my old trades, and I replay them in mind.

Summary 2.4.2013 not much
Well I made decision not to trade long after ON break, and this decision was made before actual trading. I did stick with it. "New high" move is so steady, lots of corrections, slow. Not a lot of exp in that area, so it's like trading in dark for me.
So no trade
Let's see tommorow

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  #9 (permalink)
PTA, Gauteng
 
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SadPraetor View Post

"Trading in the zone'' is on my reading list, right now I'm going through Brett Steenbarger books.

Hi. Brett Steenbarger is excellent. Here is a link to a free interview discussing the exact topic you're having an issue with "Fear of pulling the trigger to enter trades". It interviews 3 of the best trading psychologists including Steenbarger.

Give it a listen: How To Overcome the Fear of "Pulling the Trigger" on a Trade | Interviews With Top Traders

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  #10 (permalink)
Prague
 
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 31 received


Wow, today was a mess

I made a trade, but it was a bad trade

So, I logged in 40min before opening, finding out, that TT changed something with data feed.
YM - CBOT did not load overnight data, or basicly no historical data from the last time I was online, till going online again (when I deleted and reloaded data, it only started to write data from that moment)
YM - CME gateaway - something new, loaded overnight data, but no realtime

so chaos, some search on the internet, and trying to solve the problem
finaly patching YM-CBOT with YM-CME data, got my file, but the show already started

I started to do my homework when action tested overnight high. That is quite common these days when market is trying to push higher. I wasn't looking into long breakout trades, and I'm not trading rotations based on volume profile as this is not tested well yet for me.

But I identified a possible short spot at 575, with a target to 554 (smaller volume zone, + yesterdays fall jumped of it)
So I was looking short at 575

"first attachment"

Problem was that price moved close to this area before I assessed whole situation and finished my homework.
Weighted pros and cons, and the fact that last days I'm focusing at pulling the trigger, I decided to make a trade if there is a setup. First mistake. My contingency plan for trading when I come to party late, is to wait 20min bofore trading. To get into the flow

"second attachment"

I did, but volume on that levels started to rise up. Which is something I do consider when closing the trade. I closed it when volume was about 500 per level. Looking at it back, I did not give trade enough time. So a second mistake.
Doing whole homework, I would either not take the trade as I would think about possibility of rotation 575-600 or be more confident in trade
At least I didn't hesitate when I made a decision to make a trade, and signal came.

Now hour into the game, what I see today
1) overnight test
2)fall 575 to 554
with information hour after open

3)rotation 545-565/575
4)maybe fall, very low value area, 540 to 500

"last attachment"

Writing a journal really clears your head and calms you down
Well learn and regroup

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