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Almost Skilled (YM)
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Almost Skilled (YM)

  #41 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,352 given, 83,234 received


SadPraetor View Post
I have to pick a battle with you here
You do realize you stated fallacy in that statement?

Expectancy = (probability of win * average win) + (probability of loss * average loss)

Win rate is important, it is one component of the equation. With 0% win rate you can't make money

LOL, to make your case you use a win rate of 0% in your argument?

Search the forum and you'll see the rookies talking win %. Win % by itself is meaningless. Your posts mention win % by itself, and not the profit factor or expectancy. Like I said, to me that says rookie. We were all rookies at one point, I'm simply trying to encourage you to educate yourself a bit more in this area.

If you modify your argument to say win rate of 10%, you can still have a great expectancy. And that's my point.

Your mistakes, as I see them:

(a) scalping, (b) focusing on win % [akin focusing on being right].

Scalping is bad because of the costs involved, among other reasons discussed extensively on the forum. Focusing on win % is bad because win % alone is meaningless.

Repeating myself: focus on expectancy, and include the fixed costs of the trade in the calculations (commission + slippage).

Mike

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  #42 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Big Mike View Post
LOL, to make your case you use a win rate of 0% in your argument?

Search the forum and you'll see the rookies talking win %. Win % by itself is meaningless. Your posts mention win % by itself, and not the profit factor or expectancy. Like I said, to me that says rookie. We were all rookies at one point, I'm simply trying to encourage you to educate yourself a bit more in this area.

If you modify your argument to say win rate of 10%, you can still have a great expectancy. And that's my point.

Your mistakes, as I see them:

(a) scalping, (b) focusing on win % [akin focusing on being right].

Scalping is bad because of the costs involved, among other reasons discussed extensively on the forum. Focusing on win % is bad because win % alone is meaningless.

Repeating myself: focus on expectancy, and include the fixed costs of the trade in the calculations (commission + slippage).

Mike

couldn't agree with @Big Mike, more

you are doomed, and destined for failure, if you don't heed his sagacious advice

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  #43 (permalink)
Elite Member
Florida
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Favorite Futures: YM, ES, NQ, CL, ZB
 
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Posts: 742 since Dec 2012
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After reading through the thread in it's entirety, (I was surprised to discover this thread is over two and a half years old), I have one suggestion that might help, maybe a little... here is a very good webinar I think it may help clarify the importance of expectancy in developing your skill as a trader... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qkzPYIxonI

Be Patient and Trade Smart
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  #44 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Prague
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 30 received

I went quiet for three weeks. Went over the discussion in the online Journal. I was not feeling like sharing. But Journal is a commitment so I have to start posting again. I reviewed much of the notes and my personal Journal (Access, One note), thinking and weighting possibilities. The decision is that I'm going to stick to my guns. I believe that by addressing my fears in trading (closing out trades too early, hesitation in opening trades) I should get more reward per time spent and much faster than trying to redraw everything.

Past 3 weeks I was doing live trading, but not much success

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