RTR1701 TST Journal - Learn through reviewing - futures io
futures io



RTR1701 TST Journal - Learn through reviewing


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one RTR1701 with 47 posts (23 thanks)
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 3 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Daytrader999 with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 6,615 views
    2. thumb_up 25 thanks given
    3. group 8 followers
    1. forum 54 posts
    2. attach_file 75 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

RTR1701 TST Journal - Learn through reviewing

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

This journal is to document my progress towards attempting to try out for the TST combine in future months as many other members here have done. This phase will be a practice account, and this journal has been started due to the awful mess I made of the first few weeks, in the practice account and a need to document my trades formally and indeed publicly so that I can review and amend as appropriate. And to bring discipline back to my trading which has been very absent recently.

This journal will be a trade journal and will be a supplement to a historic journal which was intended to document the path to this point here:



I was gob-smacked when I went back to get the link for that and realised I had not shared my progress since October last year!! My bad!! And the excuses for that will be posted there separately!!

This is also supplementary to the business plan I wrote and have started to implement which was drawn up on the back of the bad few weeks. The plan for anyone that wishes to look over it is here:

RTR1701 Trading Plan

As for this – I have no idea how long it will take to get to the level of consistency I require of myself before I even try the combine and of course any feedback from the “old hands” at any time would always be welcome!
The plan is to post every day where trades are made with the day type analysis and initial thoughts, along with individual trades (where I remember to screen shot them!) with rationale and a good points v learning opportunities that the day has provided.

My next post will be the analysis and trades from today.

Wish me luck!!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Multichart NET: where can i find esplanation on CustomIn …
MultiCharts
AMP discontinuing its co-location server? Which futures …
Brokers
Thinkorswim MACD Thinkscript
ThinkOrSwim
MBoxWave for Sierra Chart for sale 50%
Platforms and Indicators
Futures education program reviews
Trading Reviews and Vendors
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
How much do you know about Bitcoin?
129 thanks
I finally blew up an account
40 thanks
Big Mike in Ecuador
28 thanks
EdgeProX from Edge Clear
24 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
22 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


Actually – before I post the trades I think some “full disclosure” is required as clearly confession is good for the soul!!
Just to show how messed up things were I have posted the TST trade reports for the first two weeks:





And for the second account up to the point where I realised I HAD to stop the rut and get a grip!!






Well now you know the scale of the challenge!!

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Day analysis

Expectation of a range type day as described below:



First Trade

I failed to use “snagit” but it was a long taken at 1543.25 off yesterday’s low with little selling showing in the volume footprint. This was pretty much broken straightaway and I then expected a test of the “virgin” VAH as described above so exited @1541.75 expecting a better lower entry.

Second Trade

Was a long taken at 1540.25 as shown in the images below:





This trade was exited way way way too early for all the wrong reasons at 1542.00:





Third trade

By now I had convinced myself that my initial analysis was wrong and that a test of the falling VWAP would lead to a continuation of the down move and new lows so short 1543.00:





The exit was simply based on the price action as below – and of course another change of mind back to my original range theory!



Fourth Trade

A Switch over to the Euro now – Clear downtrend for the day and a pullback that hit consolidation at a previous swing low and recent consolidation at the same area – then a break out down entry short 1.2857.





The tightening of the stop in that trade proved right and prevented a 30 tick move against which would have meant my initial 15 tick stop would have been hit.

Fifth Trade

Was a test or so I thought of the VPOC as shown below entry short @ 1.546.75



Again price shoved straight through the VPOC which invalidated the set up and I exited at 1.48.50.
So three losses and stop for the day – so sayeth the trading plan!

Lessons from the day:

1/ Believe in myself – as is so often the case my pre-trade analysis was not bad – it did turn into a range day although price did not make my expected high target of yesterday’s close.

Trade 1’s exit was appropriate to plan because I expected a re-entry at better value.

Trade 2 - Had I believed in myself and not allowed the daily noise to whisper in my ear, then trade two would have been the trade of the day, as allowed to run it would have been exited as soon as we saw the double top at today’s pivot at 1549.25 which would have been a structurally important point which would not have been ignored!

Trade 3 – The exit on this was good based on the price action which is the converse of the above point – BUT – the trade idea and location was flawed and I was suckered in by the noise whispering to me!

Trade 4 – This was a logical trade and exited correctly taking account of price action.

Trade 5 – whilst the exit was logical I really should not have taken given the proximity of the pivot point. Had I not done so then I could have carried on trading – and we know what happened when price got to the pivot point!!

Overall I am surprisingly relaxed about today. My principle objective since the disaster in the first few weeks is all about managing risk which was achieved. However I must learn to accept my initial analysis and only deviate if the initial premise is structurally beached.

I appreciate this is a long post – but it is important to me to be detailed in my thoughts for future review – I do hope though that I can improve on the way I use snagit it to produce more consolidated images to save space!

Any comments welcome!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Day analysis – ES & 6E

Expectation of a range type day for ES and possible downtrend for 6E as described below:





First & Only Trade – ES short at 1554.75 as per analysis. Traded several times at 1555 but no fill so accepted one tick lower. Stop placed at 1557.75 which is above high and normal ES rotation so if reached I am very wrong in my analysis! Target at 1551.50 so more or less 1:1 risk/reward. Depending on progression – if goes into profits then I will be watching the developing TPO VAL low and Volume VAL for potential early exits. As this may well re-test the highs I cannot adjust the stop in at this point.



UPDATE Oh well just under two hours and stop hit. But small loss and fully acceptable.

Lessons from the day:

1/ Despite the loss this was a good day. Made a plan and traded it. For now I would rather trade the plan and build my discipline than fiddle with the trade. This will lead to a much more accurate review of trade performance and that is vital to the longer term.

2/ The euro only hit my sell location with less than an hour to go until the forced close with TST so I did not feel there was enough time to get anywhere near my targets so passed on the trade. This proved correct as at the time I needed to be flat price would have been exactly at the entry price!

Any comments welcome!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,094 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,558 given, 98,591 received

None of your screenshots are working.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


Big Mike View Post
None of your screenshots are working.

Mike

Hi Mike

Thanks for the heads up - I can see them but will try and work out why you cant.

Cheers

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,094 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,558 given, 98,591 received


RTR1701 View Post
Hi Mike

Thanks for the heads up - I can see them but will try and work out why you cant.

Cheers

Graeme

Press Ctrl-F5 to clear your cache. As far as I know, this would only happen if you hit the 'Remove' button after you embedded the image.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


Big Mike View Post
Press Ctrl-F5 to clear your cache. As far as I know, this would only happen if you hit the 'Remove' button after you embedded the image.

Mike

Done that - I can still see them - how about you?

These were uploaded from local PC and embedded using the relevant button in manage attachments so should work?

Thanks

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 Daytrader999 
Site Moderator
Ilsede, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Rithmic / CQG / Ninja Trader Brokerage
Trading: NQ
 
Daytrader999's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,390 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 1,604 given, 2,067 received


I can see all attachments, except the ones in post #5.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,094 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,558 given, 98,591 received


RTR1701 View Post
Done that - I can still see them - how about you?

Nope, post 5 attachments still missing. Ctrl-F5 should have forced refresh so you also see the broken images, unless you are behind some proxy or have a weird browser config.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


Big Mike View Post
Nope, post 5 attachments still missing. Ctrl-F5 should have forced refresh so you also see the broken images, unless you are behind some proxy or have a weird browser config.

Mike

OK just edited and tried re-uploading

There is no difference in my set up from the previous posts so if they don't show now I am at a total loss!

Let me know please.

Thanks both

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 Daytrader999 
Site Moderator
Ilsede, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader 8
Broker: Rithmic / CQG / Ninja Trader Brokerage
Trading: NQ
 
Daytrader999's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,390 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 1,604 given, 2,067 received

Yep, now it works and post #5 shows the attachments as well.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


Daytrader999 View Post
Yep, now it works and post #5 shows the attachments as well.

Superb!! Thank you

Graeme


Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

A short session for me today – having issues with my software and a misunderstanding with the TST practice account duration (my fault not theirs and quickly resolved – thanks Andrea @TST support)

Day analysis – ES & 6E

The licence key for my market profile chart has not come through so cannot provide the usual chart analysis but would say that ES has a gap which I was looking to potentially fill. And 6E had a significant move down and had a slow grinding retrace which had flattened into a range – these things will be marked up on the charts for the trades taken which were all going to be relative scalps today as I was not convinced that there was volume in the ES, or that I was entering the fray on the 6E at the right time (missed the boat!)

Anyhow the trades are noted below:

First Trade 6E: Short as shown in the chart based on a failed range break to the topside and test of VWAP followed by a lower low and expectation of follow through.



Second Trade 6E: Another short attempt as detailed below but was mid-range and churning so exited -1 tick

Third Trade 6E: Yet another short attempt on increasing volume that fell away at S3. This was a multiple lot momentum play with very limited risk.

Second and third trades marked up on chart below.



Only Trade ES: In between second and third 6E trades I saw the price action described in the chart below in the ES and entered a little later than I wanted but still with 1-1 risk reward.





Again though I exited too early because price was rejecting at a resistance level that I only really picked up after the trigger was pulled.

So that was it - 4 trades three small wins one tiny loss. At least I made back the losses from yesterday.

Lessons from the day:

1/ There were learns from yesterday in the sense that I recognised low volume and reacted by looking (rightly or wrongly) for smaller rotational scalp type trades based on price action and volume flow.

2/ The trade that could have been managed better was the 1 point ES that really should have been 3. The plan was spot on, the early exit was not and the trade was never in the red – need to really work on this aspect, although in my defence when playing in such a small target range, it makes no sense to give up the wins, so the price action I was seeing at previous resistance validated an exit – to me anyway.

I shall be watching the TST webinar tonight – so see some of you there

And as always - any comments welcome!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Where am I at?

As I said in post 3 I have a big challenge ahead but I thought it was worth posting the final results of the 10 day practice account.





As you will see there have been some significant changes since I decided to “get a grip” and the highlights as I see them are:

Increase win day% 15 – 40% Still not good enough of course and tainted by the early gung ho trading.
Average winning day increased
Win/loss improved
Win % improved
Number of trades reduced significantly – increased patience and planning.

Remaining challenges:

To continue improving
Trade daily loss and maximum drawdown criteria WITHOUT FAIL.
Stop holding losing trade for an hour plus (horrified when I realised that!)
And above all – maintain the current discipline and trade the plan.

As always comments welcome!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Well no trade yesterday as I was having a few nightmares on Ninja. Come 1pm central I had about 10 bars on my 2000 tick chart! I was late opening the software anyway and had to do it five times before the software would load then clearly it was inaccurate. This was in ES, the 6e looked better but there was no way I was going to trade either product with such uncertainty.

Oh well emails off to Ninja and DTN IQ to see where the problem is (my money on NT7) and see where that leaves me. ninja have replied and suggesting a deletion of the database. I am starting to worry that Ninja is truly not stable enough - but I will give it a bit more time as in fairness I have messed with it a lot over the recent weeks with so many indicator combinations so it may just be me - we shall see.

I don't wat to derail my own thread here but if other people have had similar database corruption issues I would be curious to know how often it happens and if they managed any resolution to prevent it happening again.

Thanks and happy holidays to those that celebrate them

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,651 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,403 received


RTR1701 View Post
Well no trade yesterday as I was having a few nightmares on Ninja. Come 1pm central I had about 10 bars on my 2000 tick chart! I was late opening the software anyway and had to do it five times before the software would load then clearly it was inaccurate. This was in ES, the 6e looked better but there was no way I was going to trade either product with such uncertainty.

Oh well emails off to Ninja and DTN IQ to see where the problem is (my money on NT7) and see where that leaves me. ninja have replied and suggesting a deletion of the database. I am starting to worry that Ninja is truly not stable enough - but I will give it a bit more time as in fairness I have messed with it a lot over the recent weeks with so many indicator combinations so it may just be me - we shall see.

Check your session times (remember holiday periods, RTH v ETH, etc, etc), contract rollovers (I use continuous symbols so mostly don't care) and chart data settings (e.g. Load N bars/days/whatever)

In my experience a database rebuild is worth the effort, particularly if you have been adding removing, developing quantities of indicators or strategies, only ever had to do one which ticked me off at the time but the day's effort has resulted in a very lean mean clean system. Having a good backup routine in place first is assumed though. @Fat Tails seems to be a top system clean up whizz as well, with a recent post for removing dud dll stuff that may save the need for a db rebuild.

Of course you can also sometimes get a simple fix just by removing a buggy chart and opening a new one. Also the 'Reload All Historical Data' chart menu option does occasionally do useful fix-up stuff.

I personally now find NT7 to be remarkably stable and most difficulties are found in outside additions or over-reliance on large numbers of tick charts or instruments. Hope something helps, cheers.

Travel Well
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


ratfink View Post
heck your session times (remember holiday periods, RTH v ETH, etc, etc)

I personally now find NT7 to be remarkably stable and most difficulties are found in outside additions or over-reliance on large numbers of tick charts or instruments. Hope something helps, cheers.

Hi and thanks for the reply. I thought it might be session times as well to start so I tried the default 24/7 and still had missing data! After a db rebuild and all the steps you suggested NT support advised that I should not have the option to save data as historical ticked when using IQ feed as there is no need. They could not explain why this was an issue but unchecking that option allowed charts to be created correctly and my normal workspace too.

Weird that was not a problem before but there you go!

I will try and find @Fat Tails post though as good housekeeping is always a good idea.

Thanks again

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

I thought it might be useful to post my starting analysis as soon as made, as this will be a better measure of my performance against actual trades at the end of day. It also removes any temptation to “amend” the analysis to fit the trades!

Late into the session today due to the day job, so that will have its own challenges as much of the early move has been missed.

The analysis is shown on the chart images below:







More later

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Following on from the above post:

First Trade 6E:

This was a long from 1.2833 after a reversal from the daily noise band as shown on the analysis chart in the preceding post. This was supported by the previous three higher swing lows as marked below, but I did recognise that this would either work immediately or reverse. Hence tight stop at 1.2823, and target 1.2853. My risk restraint proved right as can been seen as the market has fallen since the trade.




Second Trade ES:

This time long off the prior identified TPO VAL at 1564.25 with a stop at 1562.25 and target 1566.75 positive R/R but only just. What I failed to account for was the “coiled spring” I have now marked up as below, and we know what happens when a coiled spring is let go? In profile terms, this was an entirely foreseeable test of either the open or the low – both of which were surpassed and of course we rallied back into the close.




Lessons from the day:

1/ one of the big tasks I set myself by committing my trading plan to paper was to give myself a set of rules and to stick to them, to stop the manic over trading and control risk. Today was a good example of patience and discipline.

2/ that said, there was a good learning point in the ES trade where I really need to adapt the trading plan to the real time assessment of the market state. One to remember!

As always - any comments welcome!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

I have changed the style of charts to make things stand out a bit better so hopefully that will help read them.

My analysis is on the charts as set out below.

Since marking up the charts the TPO POC in the ES has dropped to 1553.50 and there is good former support turned resistance so I may try a short there with a close stop.

ES Analysis:



6E Analysis:


Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Following on from the above post:

First Trade ES:

This was the short filled from 1553.00 as described in the analysis in the previous post above and noted in the chart below. Stop was placed at 1555.25 and target at 1549.50. The stop was more of a disaster stop as this type of trade should not go that far against you. So reward 3.5 risk 2.25 pts – 1.56 to 1.



Second Trade ES:

This was my one and only attempt to walk in front of the fast moving train, but based on my premarket analysis and expectation of support at 1549 area I went long at 1548.50. This was supported by what I thought looked like a measured move as shown on the charts. I was only confident at that point on a retrace to the VOL and TPO VAL at 1551. Stop at 1547 so reward 2.5 pts risk 1.5 so 1.67 to 1. The market had not finished and went on lower, so tight risk was the right call in many ways.



First Trade 6E:

As per pre session analysis I went short on a retest of 1.2860 and entered after a classic tweezer top formed as shown on the chart and filled at 1.2855. I had an initial target of 1.2835 as this was inside the virgin VAL and at this point I felt a move down as in order. Stop at 1.2865 so reward 30 - risk 10 or 3:1 was the best multiple expectation. The trade had an almost immediate retest, then after going about +4 it started to see two sided trade and I felt that the momentum was not there to carry the trade so accepted a scratch. Again this proved the right thing to do as at close we were still only at 1.2853.




Third Trade ES:

This was another simple support turned resistance trade at the key level of 1551.00 as marked below and was filled at 1550.75. This one did take some heat and determined efforts by hopeful bulls, but each time the bears were aggressive in their defence which gave me the optimism to hold this trade. Target was 1548.50 and stop at 1552.75 as the trade was either right or wrong! Reward 2.25 pts – risk 2 pts so 1:1 more or less but at a higher probability location so acceptable and target was hit.



So in all 4 trades 2 wins one scratch and one acceptable loss.

Lessons from the day:

1/ The loss today in hindsight was avoidable. Not because I chose to fight the moving train, and not even because the location ended up being premature, but because counter trend trades need some sort of confirmation, with trend retraces are more likely to respect former levels IMHO. So had I waited for confirmation I may have avoided that loss.

2/ One of my learns from the other day is to adapt to the developing market state, and that went well today.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Today is a later work pattern at my day job so I am up at 05:30 GMT – 11:30 Central to look for trades setting up in the overnight market and pre-London open.

I am still bearish in both my markets and have marked up the charts with potential entries and in the time it took to writs this I am short the ES already. There is every prospect that I may need to leave these longer than I would normally and my stops and targets are wider too so one lot trades if both fill which would leave me exposed to about 40% of my daily loss limit. Actually 6E just triggered so I am in both – will post entry and stop rationale separately.




Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Following on from the above post:

The trade entries stops and targets as marked below and I will edit this later dependant on when trades end – dependant on the day job /news etc etc:

ES Trade:



6E Trade:



UPDATE 08:55 GMT 02:55 Central

Target filled on 6E as below



This may have some legs yet - but I will leave it there as need to go soon to the day job.

UPDATE 19:45 GMT 13:45 Central

So the ES trade had to be left on while I went to work and the bullishness returned – ended up in a wider consolidation/distribution range rather than the follow through I expected so of course I was stopped on the trade.

It has been a long day at work so no trades are likely in the US session today so ended win 1 loss but net in the green so all good.

Lessons from the day:

1/ The main lesson is that given one of the combine metrics is average losing trade duration v average win duration, I can’t really afford to leave a losing trade running like that – so with effect from my next UK pre-open session, no losing trades to be carried and winners to be at least BE + to secure winners which of course can be left to run if appropriate.

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Arrived home to see that NFP has worked its magic again and as usual I am left trying to get back in too late – analysis below and I need to go concentrate – I think I may already have missed the trade I was looking for in the ES.






Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Following on from the above post:

I was lucky enough to finish the day job early and get almost a full session in all bar an hour today.

First Trade 6E:

This was the short with rationale as explained. I was aware the consolidation shown was not a classic tradable pattern per se and wanted to keep the trade tight in case especially with a psych round number right there!

So entry 1.3007 target 1.2987 stop 1.3028 so 20 ticks to 14 or 1.43:1. But it turned out that it was a rest before a powerful drive up so the tight stop was sensible as it turned out. -14




First Trade ES:

This one was the confluence of a two legged pullback in a larger up move, TPO POC, and several support/resistance holds with a rising trendline close at hand for good measure so entry was at 1537.25 and initial target was 1542.50 with stop 1535.75 so a good 3.5:1 ratio. The target was based on my analysis that often NFP reaction often fills and the target front runs that initial down move.

I ended up covering when price made a serious stall and I wanted to protect the gain so closed at 1540.25. It did go on and reach my target to the tick but not much volume traded so doubt if I would have filled. +12




Second Trade 6E:

As per pre session analysis I was still looking for a reason to short to fill the singles in 6E. So on seeing a strong move up to test and slightly exceed the previous high, and then volume and price started to stall I thought the time was right. So a trade could be made with a pretty tight stop and I was looking for a reversal to the POC. I filled at 1.3041 and the target was 1.3017 with the stop at 1.3051 so 2.5:1 at outset.

Price then flat lined at the previous double top and I felt it was time to cover. Price did go a further 5 ticks but that’s fine! +11



Third Trade 6E:

Within a couple of minutes price popped down those 5 ticks and it screamed trap to me in addition we had a triple bottom reversal across three candles and POC shifted so it was time for another tight stop long. Entry was at 1.3027 target 1.3039 to front run the swing high and stop 1.3019 so 1.5 : 1

Again we had a stall which I think was around the developing volume POC so covered 1.3034 for + 7




Second Trade ES:

Long trade at confluence POC and upward trend line – aggressive trade which either had to work immediately or fold so entry 1539.25 target was to VAH at 1.541 stop at 1538.25. The trade ran into some immediate churning volume and it no longer “felt right” so I scratched. Price went to my stop so I saved some money but price then did take the target so opportunity lost – scratch.



Fourth Trade 6E:

Essentially a repeat of the last trade but in a different instrument! This time entry was 1.3020 and another tight stop at 14. Target was a new high at 50 so a good multiple R of 8.3:1

Price moved up had a stall about 27-28, then cleared that so became free trade either 1 tick or 30 and now won’t be touched unless I have to close at end of day! – Whilst writing Cyprus announced extended credit controls – and my stop was hit for +1.



I actually think now is the time to stop as it has been a long week and I am getting jaded!!!

All in all 5 trades three winners one loss one scratch for total +17 – there were a couple of 2 lots in there on the tight trades so effectively works out to the equivalent of 31 ticks net of commissions.

Lessons from the day:

1/ This was a pretty good day for me and seemed somehow more connected to the ebbs and flows. I think that was more to do with the fact that I had the luxury of only missing one hour of the US session today so I was more able to “feel” the way the market was trading.

2/ It was also a good day in the sense that initial risk reward were a minimum 1.43 for the scalps and some considerably more for the longer trades so location wise I seemed to have reasonable entries.

Have a good weekend all!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

I felt it was appropriate to post a couple of things that happened to me late last week. We live in a sometimes unpleasant world, so when people that you only know through a shared interest in trading show their generosity it is only fair that it is duly noted publicly.

First up a big thanks to @PandaWarrior who has provided some really good advice on my current path to the TST combine which will be implemented in coming weeks and I am eternally grateful for his help. The fact that he has taken the time to help is most gratefully received. And indeed there are many amazing members here that offer guidance and their immense practical or coding skills which allows others less gifted to share their work. Hats off to @Big Mike and all here!!

The second thing was an act of incredible generosity over at TST itself. Some of you will be aware of the "tick" program over there, which is basically a way of earning points (ticks) for participation in various parts of the site. One of the ways in which these ticks can be spent is on a combine - with various types of combine being redeemed for a specific amount of ticks.

The most amazing thing was that one of the members there (I have not asked if it is OK to name him so I won't) decided to gift me 3000 ticks which was enough to get me in reach of the amount needed for redemption for the $50k 20 day combine! It is heart warming in today's world that people can be so kind.

I am not going to move straight to the combine as I still have work to do, and I feel responsibility that the generosity should be repaid by giving that combine my very best.

So thank you to those specific individuals, and I wish everyone reading this a prosperous trading week!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

After some initial issues getting the charts to load correctly here is today’s analysis and as previously described I am now looking at the 6E only for now:


Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Following on from the above post:

Slow day today and only the one trade taken in line with the analysis. As per the charts below Entry 1.3014 Target
1.2984 Stop 1.3030 so initial reward to risk 1.87:1





Lessons from the day:

1/ I think with the exception of missing the shoulda coulda woulda as described on the chart, my read of the day was good. I recognised the changing market state, and the real and present danger to the trade and acted accordingly.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Some overnight comment make today’s pre London analysis interesting. As always see the charts for details





UPDATE:

Trade taken with reasons on the chart. Entry 13044 Target 13084 Stop 13020 so 1.6:1. Target is based on my analysis and stop is where that would be wrong.

Even as I type this the high from yesterday is being tested, so I could be wrong quite quickly!!



UPDATE @ 08:14 GMT
Stop hit.


Lessons from the day:

1/ Plan made – plan traded. Loss 0.6% of account and well within parameters. Losses are an inevitable consequence of business so I don’t have a problem with being proved wrong when risk is constrained logically and within tolerance.

2/ What I am not so happy about is losses that could have been avoided or at least reduced. I use a RAN service which I consider a vital tool to keep me up to speed on economic releases and unexpected news / rumours that can prove market moving.

After a stronger looking move busted through my stop I checked and found that for some reason the service had stopped and that Moodys and the other wires services were running comments about Spain’s deficit targets remaining elusive. We are talking the Euro here and it is a nervous little girl who tends to react badly to this type of unannounced news. Had I heard this it would have made more sense of the reactions and would undoubtedly have saved me some money – I don’t know if I would have reversed, but certainly have saved some money.

This is a game changer intraday and invalidates my previous analysis, and as I have to get to the day job now and I am working late tonight may well mean no more trades today, but I will look once back from work.

Hope you all have better luck today.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

So frustrating yesterday and today, my “superfast” cable internet was doing a good impression of a one-legged tortoise and so many disconnects making it impossible to believe anything I was seeing was actually live.

Naturally that is no way to trade and every way to lose even practice money.

So—teddy grabbed and thrown firmly out of the pram and called the ISP and “politely” told them to park their internet somewhere else and cancel the contract and refund all payments – and don’t even think about cancellation fees!!!
Well that worked but the consequence was no stop loss – or replacement ISP in place so will be without wired internet until next week.

I have mobile which I can tether but no way am I trusting to that!

Oh well – enforced leave for one week and I will resume as soon as I am confident the replacement is stable

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Using my iPhone tethered to give me internet - lets hope it will prove viable!

Today's pre-trade analysis on the chart below:


Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Following on from the above post:

The charts are very jumpy using the temporary solution and in fast markets I would be severely disadvantaged so I will need to be careful!

Only two trades today partly as I am uneasy with the data flow and partly as my read is off today and I don’t want to allow too much of that to creep into the trade decisions.

First Trade 6E:

This was the short with rationale as explained on the chart and was in line with my first impressions in the analysis. Entry was slightly late at 1.3089 after a rejection from the previous swing high. Target was 1.3052 in line with my initial thoughts on the lower distribution forming, and stop 1.3104 which was allowing for a few ticks test/trap as often happens. Reward/risk 2.47:1.



On the exit chart below there is some serious chop at the high – and I should really have paid more attention to that as eventually moved up and hit my stop for -15.



Second Trade 6E:

So – with the 1st trade invalidating my first choice analysis then it seemed reasonable that the market would take the second route which would be to fill the low volume area and seek value in the upper distribution so when I saw the breakout pullback long type set up – I had to try it and went long at 1.3098 with a target just inside the full day session VAH at 1.3125 and stop at 1.3083 as that would invalidate the trade premise. So 1.8:1.



The market then gave me a double top at 1.3107 which was just above my stop in the first trade – and a similar consolidation - now I am in some doubt over the likely momentum on the trade.

It was still possible we may just get a sideways range before another move up, and this time I am with the previous price trend - so I decided to hold but be alert to a break of 1.3094 which would make me wrong given a previous swing low forming after the initial trade entry – if this was to go up – then clearly we need higher highs and higher lows! Stop moved up to 1.3091 as there was no sense in ignoring the market twice in one day! After what seemed like forever the market took the stop for my second avoidable loss of the day -7

Lessons from the day:

1/ My analysis and options were right in the sense that the area I identified were correct and represented changes in market state, but I was in reality trading in the middle of that very area I identified as possibly going to fill and that was a bad error.

2/ The big learn from today though was that both consolidation areas were big red flags and I really need to react to these types of situation and cut the trade there and then and wait for a better set up.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Slight change – as there is no feedback on the live analysis I will now only post at the end of the day to reduce the time taken out of my already limited trading hours to post my analysis at the beginning of my trading session – I am conscious that I post most of the time at least 2 hours into the US session and for many I guess that would be too late - unless of course it is proving useful to someone other than myself - in which case please let me know and I will reconsider.

Analysis for the day

As usual I am entering the fray once the main move has happened and facing a day of do I ride the high or fade it.



The analysis was based on the possibility of a pullback – but when that did not happen the only trade of the day occurred as shown later.

First and only trade entry

Just after I did the analysis there was a determined push up and it seemed fairly obvious that we were then less likely to get the pullback the analysis required. So I then adapted the plan and watched how the 1.3200 level was approached and defended.



The entry was at 1.3186 on a buy stop initial target 1.3216 based on observation that often the first break of a round number will stop 20 ticks in, and stop 1.3178 so reward to risk 3.3:1.

Took some initial heat to within 2 ticks of the stop – but survived. Market went onside and then triple topped after 30 minutes on three consecutive 250T candles. Given the lack of momentum, and lessons learned from previous days. I decided to remove risk and went to BE +1 as the momentum was not there.

Eventually though the market took the 200 handle by 6 ticks, but again there was not aggressive buying at that level, and I was aware the ATR of 6e was already exceeded from the London low. So I took the 10 ticks by this point the market gave me and decided to sit the rest of the day out, as the no trade in the last hour rule was sure to come into play. This proved the right move as market at close was back at my entry so +10 – a green day is a green day!

Lessons from the day:

1/ My analysis and options were appropriate, but evolution of price dictated a revised plan, so adapt and survive proved to be correct.

2/ I need to continue to trust my feel for the market and recognition of patterns from past observations and react to what I am seeing

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Analysis for the day

Something of a pattern developing here but - as usual I am entering the fray once the main move has happened and facing a day of do I ride the low or look for a retrace?

The analysis was similar to yesterday but in reverse – looking for a larger pullback to go for the short trade. That said I was already aware that the logical pullback was a long way off, so as yesterday I was already on the lookout for alternatives.



First trade

Soon after a good low risk entry appeared as shown on the chart entry 1.0340 stop only 1.3047 and initial target was 1.3010 to front run the round number which I saw as a pivotal support level. Ratio 4.28:1

Stopped out early due to reversal 4 ticks ahead of target as shown on the chart and took +19



Second Trade

This was a simple support turned resistance type trade entry at 1.3029 again tight stop at 1.3035 as set up would be invalid there. Same target as before front running the round number at 1.3000 so 4.85:1.

This time price immediately started to churn low volume, and previous days lesson alerted me to this and decided to scratch which proved correct as stop would have been hit and price moved much higher.



Third Chart

This was a trade based on the confluence of Vol and TPO POC and was simply looking for a retest of the areas shown on the chart. Entry 1.3047 Stop 1.3057 Target 1.3030 so 1.7:1.

Trade missed target by one tick and started to reverse. Given the SHORT term trend was up I decided to move the stop to +6 which was hit. Naturally had I not moved the stop the target would have been hit – BUT the move was based on my interpretation and that is still OK in my mind. Better a profit than a loss. +10



Fourth trade

Oops moving the stop for the third trade was messed up and I ended up reversing! Lucky for me I was able to get out -1.

Lessons from the day:

1/ Overall pretty happy and lessons from previous day prevented losses. Just 3 ticks MAE over all trades.

2/ The trade errors will happen. In this case it was because I was over tired – the good news is that I realised that and stopped trading for the day to preserve the gains.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Analysis for the day

I forgot to take screen captures on Friday so for “full disclosure” I made three consecutive small losses for a total of -20. The fact that I forgot the captures is yet another symptom that I was trading over tired on Friday and should not have been trading – lesson learnt but fortunately no real damage to the account balance.

On to today.

The London session had moved 6E lower and we now had a double distribution day in the making so I had to analyse the potential for further movers to the downside – or for reversal – analysis on the chart below.



First trade

Soon after I saw that price was beginning to consolidate in the expected area, and I was able to get short on a sell stop at 1.3052 after a double top and shooting star combo just after the capture.

So entry 1.3052 target 1.3032 and stop 1.062 and 2:1 ratio. The trade tested my patience by going sideways for what seemed like an eternity, and normally I would apply a time stop. The only reasons I did not do that was that price made two subsequent attempts to go higher than the signal candle, and each time was rejected after one or two ticks which suggested there was enough supply at those levels to keep the market down, so I decided to let it ride for 2.5 hours – you can guess the rest -10



Lessons from the day:

1/ Today proved that I must add a time based rule to my trades. Pretty much every time I use discretion to hold a trade to give it room – the trade fails, whereas pretty much every time I cut a trade it prevents losses. There is no room for being stubborn.

2/ This was another day of consolidation for a long period in 6E. I am not sure if this is a coincidence or a larger pattern, and the fact I don’t know means some “back testing” of the range and types of movement in the hours I normally trade is needed.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

An hour watching the pre-London open 6E consolidation, knowing it would likely do its break - fake - reverse London dance - but needing to get breakfast and go to work and coming back 8 MINUTES later seeing 40 or so ticks break and knowing it was too late to see what happened next. Then coming back too late to trade US – having a day job SUCKS!!

BUT Knowing what could happen prevented me from chasing the move in 6E which was the right thing as it only went 15 or so more before the 100ish tick sell off. Despite the frustration I am pleased my resolve held.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

It has been a while since I posted – essentially a mix of holidays and the day job going nuts left me with even less time to trade so it was better not to trade at all rather than trade in a hurry and make mistakes.

In the continued bid to save time and space I will only post one chart per trade where needed.

Daily analysis – ES in up trend and profile shows a fairly normal distribution at the moment consolidated profile and looking to test the lower extremities of this down to at least the volume VAL at the time of trade which was 10:50 US time. Looking for longs from the lower 25% of the profile initially.

Mindful of FOMC minutes in two hours so will need to keep an eye on things.

First (and as it transpired only) trade set up:



Significant support at volume VAL and plenty of congestion as per the chart. Entry 44.25 Stop placed below the swing low at 41.75 and target 47.00 below the upper congestion. Risk 10 ticks reward 11 ticks so just 1:1.

Stayed in the trade for what seemed like an eternity as the market flattened ahead of FOMC and with 15 mins to go my rules say flatten so I took the one whole tick the market offered at that point – but rules are rules!

Did it go higher – yes. Did it hit original target before FOMC nope but FOMC drove it through – not that I knew that straightaway as my internet provider decides to throw a wobbler just at the very moment the minutes are released and it took me 30 mins to get a connection and even then had to tether a phone to do it – no more trades today – watching the stability of the line!!

Anyway – do I regret closing the trade? No – as I say rules are rules and I live to fight another day – could so easily have gone the other way and capital preservation is key IMO

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

As you will see from the charts I decided to clean things up a little on the entry chart and have removed a lot of the distracting lines that were giving me too many places to trade at.

I still have market profile on a separate chart – but I don’t look at it all the time – maybe every hour or so to “summarise” and check my visualisation of developing value in the day.

Daily analysis – ES had a good pop to the upside overnight on the 10th and built stepping ranges yesterday, and in profile terms looks like at least for the early session it would be probable to range today unless some momentum builds but as there was no news I couldn't really see that happening on a Friday. If anything maybe some profit taking towards the afternoon?

With that in mind I am looking for range type scalps.

First trade set up:



The Michigan number gave the first opportunity as the headline number was less than expectation and price was up against a recently developing range high. SO everything suggested at least a scalp back down to the range bottom.

Entry 69.50 Target 67.75 and stop 71.50 so stop 8 ticks target 7 ticks. Because this was a tight stop I could add some lots to the trade.

Price moved more or less straightaway but stalled at 68 even which was the exact prior swing low so I exited which the right thing to do.

Second Trade set up:



Previous support and daily pivot point seemed like a good place for another attempt long entry 67.50 stop tight at 66.50 4 ticks target 69.50 8 ticks.

Trade went sideways for 30 minutes, and the 68 level which was previous support was being defended several times from above. My rules are if a trade has not worked within 30 minutes then my placement was not in accord with market sentiment so I closed at +1.

At time of writing price still had not hit either stop or target an hour after placed so given the combine standard rules having a time bar on the trades does help the trade duration criteria (I do realise a custom evaluation can be done)

Third Trade*

Bad move – reacted to squawk announcement of French downgrade from Fitch before realising that was just in line with Moody’s etc, so closed out as the premise of the trade was wrong for an unnecessary but manageable 2 tick loss!

Will update if more trades.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Analysis

Joining the party at just before 11 US time and we are already at new highs which makes things a bit tricky, but until “told” otherwise by price action I expect to be long only and looking to enter on a pull back to either the lower trendline or the zones I have indicated.

Profile at this stage suggests normal distribution so will be mindful that there is a real possibility of a test of the low of the day or overnight session around the 71.50 to 72.50 levels.

At these levels I would expect targets to be just inside previous highs at 77.75 until / if that breaks.



First trade set up:

Been eying up the intersection of the marked support zone from the O/N high and the rising channel so have a buy order resting 75.25 lets see if it gets that far – not a trade call obviously!!



No trade in the end

Oh well order left standing by three ticks. I was distracted when there was a further pullback long 1678.00 but it was mid channel so in reality I don’t think I would have taken it anyway.

So no trades today as rules are; no new trades in the last hour, but not trades is no loss so that at least is good – but I won’t pass any combines this way. Patience is a virtue but sorely tested the last two traded days.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Just before 11 US time again and clearly in a strong up move, but things are looking like a bit of a stall.



Profile shows single prints from 1682 to 1685 and I think unless the highs get taken then I really would like to see the singles fill and a new “normal distribution” build in the current new drive.



There is 4 points between current price and the bottom of the singles but I am not yet convinced which way this will go. A break of 85.50 and that turning to resistance would give a sell signal otherwise then I need to see a break of the highs and that in turn becoming support for any long at present.

That said, a developing range 86 to 88 may give a scalp from the bottom of the range – not sure I would want to short the top of that.

Having connection interrupts again - 4 in the time to write this so not sure if I will trade again

UPDATE Oh man oh man oh man – two trades exactly as predicted messed up by the dulcet tones of my PC going “PING CONNECTION LOST!!!”

Enough is enough - so after I removed myself from the head shaped hole in my wall – I installed a new ADSL filter to see if that is the problem – no trades again as I now have to see the session out with no connection drops to be comfortable trading again.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
 DarkPoolTrading 
PTA, Gauteng
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Self built + Sierra + TWS
Trading: Stocks and Options
 
DarkPoolTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since May 2012
Thanks: 1,244 given, 1,321 received


RTR1701 View Post
Having connection interrupts again - 4 in the time to write this so not sure if I will trade again

UPDATE Oh man oh man oh man – two trades exactly as predicted messed up by the dulcet tones of my PC going “PING CONNECTION LOST!!!”

Enough is enough - so after I removed myself from the head shaped hole in my wall – I installed a new ADSL filter to see if that is the problem – no trades again as I now have to see the session out with no connection drops to be comfortable trading again.

Man that sucks! I can relate. I had constant adsl issues at my previous home. As if trading isn't hard enough, I had the additional challenge of wondering not if, but when my adsl would disconnect. Added to that was the fact that the 3G signal in that area was so cr@p I couldn't even rely on it to get out of trades in an emergency. Luckily since moving the adsl is pretty good.

Maybe consider getting a back up connection you can use in emergencies eg: 3G

Just thought i'd pop in and say, I share your pain!

Good luck.

Diversification is the only free lunch
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received


DarkPoolTrading View Post
Man that sucks! I can relate. I had constant adsl issues at my previous home. As if trading isn't hard enough, I had the additional challenge of wondering not if, but when my adsl would disconnect. Added to that was the fact that the 3G signal in that area was so cr@p I couldn't even rely on it to get out of trades in an emergency. Luckily since moving the adsl is pretty good.

Maybe consider getting a back up connection you can use in emergencies eg: 3G

Just thought i'd pop in and say, I share your pain!

Good luck.

Thanks DarkPoolTrading

3G here is not great too!! But I can tether if needs be but prefer "proper" broadband if possible as I worry about the 3G dropping too lol

BUT I have taken the phone and filter out and turned off everything near it and so far no disconnects in about an hour - so fingers crossed but need to see it go a bit longer to be sure!

Thanks for dropping by - I do appreciate it!

Thanks

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Daily Analysis

Hi all

Just before 11 US time again and a down move to test the POC from 19 July see the charts below for further comment:





First trade set up:

Took this almost immediately and frankly got suckered by my bias - looked like rejection as shown above and forming a higher low against support, but in reality it turned out to be a pullback only and my stop was hit quite quickly.

Error based on not taking the time to study the orderflow to support the trade. Bad move and I need to perhaps add some sort of time delay from starting the charts to first trade to prevent this sort of thing.

Will update if more trades taken.

UPDATE - Oh great - here we go again connection dropped and could do nothing for 10 minutes!! In a nutshell I cant be having this anymore so will not trade again until a phone engineer has found the problem!! Can't tell you how frustrating this is right now! Never mind - I will persevere and get there in the end!


Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Well here’s hoping! Had a phone engineer in to diagnose the connection issues I have been having lately and lo and behold some cowboy had completely bypassed the correct wiring in the master socket. No wonder the thing was dying all the time!

Now rewired and have run a ping test for 24 hours and average ping 23 (with no apps running) and only 0.2% packet loss so hope things have resolved.

Running all software now and will do for a couple of days to see if hold then back at it

Aim to start first actual combine in next two weeks.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

The last few days have been spent trying out a number of methods and software the trades from which were not noted here as they were outside of the remit of the and far too many to make sense posting.

However the results of these and the musings over the recent weeks have helped me form a revised and narrowed down trade plan which I set out below.

Location:

UK

Combine:

$30k 20 day

Markets to be traded:

ES only until consistent methodology evaluated

Trading hours:

Mid-Morning to US close (Some days market open)

Methodology:

Pre-Defined Trade Set Ups – Indicator based.

Discretionary Set Ups - Market Profile trades. Trend Following using trendline entry.

Charting:

Ninja Trader 7 – Daily, I hour, 1000T and Market Profile

Indicators:

Jigsaw DOM, Market&Volume Profile, OHLC & Pivots Daily & Weekly, EMA 20, 50, 100 & 200, Cumulative Delta, Price Action Swing & Super Trend.

Expectation for day type:

Based on analysis of Market Profile at start – evolving structure as day goes on.

Pre-Defined Trades

Software Signalled Trades Using Price Action Swing Indicator - Trade 1 – ABC pattern

Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Signal line indicator generated – but not confirmed until close of candle beyond signal line – enter on open next candle.
2/ Enter with trend only unless outside of value area with expectation of reversal – e.g. normal distribution type profiles expectations.
3/ Tight range price action 6-8 tick range creates signal – NO TRADE.
4/ Is there space to target – if not NO TRADE
5/ OCO applied to trade? Adjust to correct position Stop 4 ticks below Point A Target 138.2% Fib Extension.
6/ 100% Fib extension stop to BE.
7/ 138.2% Fib extension OR 2 x risk if closer - Target Hit take profit
8/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
9/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE

Software Signalled Trades Using Price Action Swing Indicator - Trade 2 – Double Top/Bottom

Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Signal indicator generated
2/ Enter with stop order 2 ticks below signal candle
3/ PULL order if high of signal candle is violated even by one tick
4/ Enter with trend only unless outside of value area with expectation of reversal – e.g. normal distribution type profiles expectations.
5/ Tight range price action 6-8 tick range creates signal – NO TRADE.
6/ Is there space to target – if not NO TRADE
7/ OCO applied to trade? Adjust to correct position Stop 4 ticks outside of signal bar - Target 138.2% Fib Extension.
7/ 100% Fib extension stop to BE.
8/ 138.2% Fib extension 2 x risk if closer Target Hit take profit
9/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
10/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE

Discretionary Trade Set Ups

Market Profile Trades:

Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Fade of market extremes outside of value area
2/ Enter with signs of absorption or cumulative delta divergence at extremes within 5 ticks of high/low when normal distribution type profiles expected.
3/ Stop to be 2 points above the high
4/ Profit target 5 ticks inside the closest of Volume or TPO POC.
5/ Is there space to target – if not NO TRADE
6/ OCO applied to trade? Adjust to correct positions as above
7/ 50% to target stop to BE.
8/ Target Hit take profit
9/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
10/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE

Trendline Trades:

Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Identify strong trending PA defined as all moving averages in “correct order” and distance between price and PAS Stop lines.
2/ Enter on breaks of pullback trendlines with increasing volume and delta divergence in the direction of trade.
3/ Stop to be 2 points Price Action Stop Line
4/ No Profit target – Trailing stop strategy
5/ Stop to BE on next pullback break.
6/ Take profit on being stopped using trailing stop lines
7/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
8/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE

Account Protection:

Stop after maximum three losses in a row, or if next trade stop loss would take account above daily loss if sooner.
No trades with more than 16 ticks of risk

Trade Protection:

Auto OCO stops and targets (unless trend following - stop only), maximum 4 points per trade.
Flat 10 minutes before major news announcements.
Talking Forex service from RAN Squawk.

Lot sizing:

Trade start one lot until account P&L > $1,000,
Then increase by one at each $1,000 increment.
Reduce lot size if P&L returns below thresholds.

Adding to positions:

Only add to a position if the first, or successive lots are secured by a stop at BE or better and on another valid signal in the direction of trade.

Journaling and Reviewing

Simple Journal everything – review at the end of each combine/month of trading once live – make constructive alterations based on analysis and do it over again.


As always if anyone cares to comment – especially TST members here that would be great!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Simply to trade only set ups from the new trading plan and not allow discretion outside of those rules. I need reliable data to evaluate the combine results so there is no room for emotions or indecisions and alterations.

Day State:

Range extension to the downside based on daily charts. At the time I get in this has already happened and a potential low posted at 1640 area. Therefore missed MP long set up based on failed test of yesterday’s low and too far North of that for a long with reasonable risk reward. Waiting for pullback to 1644 to 46 area and a valid signal to enter a short.

First & Only trade:

Short Market Profile set up but momentum was still there so stopped very quickly – need to read strength better – 8 ticks.

Best thing from today:

My new rules kept me out of 5 trades that I would probably have taken previously the sum total of which would have taken me to Daily Loss Limit and 30% of total drawdown allowed! The one in plan trade lost $105 – entirely OK with me!!

Worst thing:

Sitting on hands during such volatility. But so be it – as someone said earlier; better not to try and jump on the moving bus – less chance of getting run over!

Lesson of the day:

Plan has a trend pullback trendline set up within it. It is clear that I need to concentrate much harder to spot and execute these correctly. I missed three (in hindsight) – one of which the market ran through too quick – but I didn't chase so all good.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

I identified yesterday that I need to practice the trendline set up in my plan more effectively so that is my primary focus today as other setups are signalled by software or at easily identifiable areas in advance.

Day State:

Yesterday’s daily move was very bearish initial movement but the close was high suggesting a move up next day. Today ‘s action at time of writing (11:15 CST) was a test of yesterday’s high which had been rejected but still being tested. Therefore it would make sense from a profile point of view not to initially short MP highs and look for pullbacks outside of lower value for position type longs.

That said, signals for shorter term shorts could still be taken with tight risk as another option is to build value within the POC of the last two days between 1646 to 1654 areas.

First & Only trade:

Short ABC signal = entry was flawed as price closed ON the signal line not past it. So I did not trade to the rule – stopped out. Annoyed with the error – normally the margin between success and failure can be wide – this time it was one tick – I should not have been in that trade pure and simple.

Best thing from today:

Best thing from today: Risk still in control so losses not becoming an issue as yet.

Worst thing:

Definitely THE worst was jumping the gun by one tick trading a close ON not through a signal line as per rules. Second worst missed another trendline break courtesy of chart messing up needing restarting and a profile entry getting food DOH!

Lesson of the day:

Distractions are inevitable – no problem in that – breaking a rule on the other hand is not to be encouraged – one rule I did not add to my plan - but will mentally is - break rule – go stand in the corner with a dunce hat on until tomorrow and no more trades - harsh but necessary!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Following yesterday’s rule breach - Today’s simple goal – trade the plan with no exceptions

Day State:

After the down days of last week yesterday’s rally looks over done and as at 09:12 CST we had a text of value from 16/08 which was rejected. In Profile terms there is a whole range that looks like it could do with building into between current highs of around 1661 down to around the 50 handle.

So initial thoughts would be range day between these levels fading these extremes if possible.
Shorter term trades can be taken if there is space to target.

First trade:

Short ABC signal = 1654.00 entry 1656.75 stop and target 1650.00 Immediately went in favour 4 ticks then got an opposing long signal and rules say flat and reverse if appropriate. Took profit 1653.00 and price shot up so no good risk reward and second trade passed. +4 ticks

The opposing ABC long that flattened the first trade went on to hit target but would have been stopped by the DT signal as below.

Second trade:

Double Top as per plan entry 1654.50 Stop 1657.00 target 1651.75 plan taken as per plan. Had some sideways flapping about and real indecision probably based on the relative speed of the last moves. Stop hit -10.

Third trade:

Trendine break long entry 1658.00 stop 1656.00 target 1660.50 moved in favour then 3 bars on static before reversing and taking out the stop. -8

Fourth trade:

Trendline short entry 1657.25 stop 1658.50 target 1656.00 opposing ABC signal – flat +3

Fifth Trade:

ABC long that flattened previous was confirmed so took the long 1657.25 stop 1655.25 target 1660.25. 30 mins flat lined so time stop envoked at BE. After two hours rules would have put it to BE anyway so neutral result.

Best:

Pre market range analysis was quite accurate, 5 trades executed 100% according to rules. 2 x reversal signal stops saved 16 ticks of loss AND 2 hours of pain in the afternoon’s sideways markets lol.

Worst:

Still a negative day but only $125. Three negative days in a row – hopefully bad things really do only come in threes! Bring it on Monday!!

Lesson of the day:

My pre-market analysis has been pretty good lately – and I will need to bring this into the plan. The dilemma is that I need data on my current plan without tweaking it after three days!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Again focus on the non-software signalled trendline trades to increase efficiency of trade executions. Assuming market conditions allow take at least two such trades – but not forced if conditions do not allow trades that are in plan.

Day State:

In Market Profile Terms Friday’s RTH close was above POC and looked strong. Overnight we have already seen moves up to 1667 which has been defended and the market is moving back to test Friday value and probably POC at 1660 which I would expect to be a line in the sand below that 58 should also prove difficult to get through. So in summary my expectation today is a possible re-test of 60 level before a range extension above 67.



First trade:

I am going to add my thoughts to the trades as I go – this may prove to be a useful look back tool to see if there are any psychological reasons / commonalities to stops being moved or trades closed outside of rules – this is in addition to short notes in the journal.

08:36 - Long ABC signal = 1661.50 entry 1658.75 stop and target 1666.50.
08:53 - Trade went to within 2 ticks of the level at which the stop is to be moved to Break Even, and started to pullback. I also had now a rising trendline, today’s open and yesterday’s close and yesterday’s Value Area High ahead of the stop level so felt OK to leave it at this point.
09:05 – I get an opposing ABC short signal, but has not yet confirmed this is when price is at 1663.00. This is no-man’s land for today so far and has not yet confirmed so waiting to see how it develops before acting.
09:07 - Another ABC short signal, but again not yet confirmed – watching closely now. 09:11 – Both ABC shorts invalidated and price moved ahead so now rules allow the stop t0 move to BE +2. As my first position is secured I would now look at add if the right long entry is signalled with room to go to 66.50 with reasonable risk reward.
09:18 - I also now have an upward trend channel marked and price at upper line – expect some sort of pullback here – but position secured in any case.
09:28 – Price looking to stall at 1665.50 level maybe reversing as have a lower high here. Considering moving stop to under swing low to protect gains. Stop to 1663.25 – Co-incidentally my indicator stop line is at the same value.
09:49 – Bulls still timid and really need to see the next push up hit target if it gets within 1-2 ticks and order flow starts absorbing then will consider flattening.
09:57 Target filled. +20

Second Trade:

11:37 - ABC Short signal confirmed at 1665.25 Stop 1667.5 Target 1661.75. I have taken the signal as the combine is designed to take the signals in the plan. I am less happy with this signal, as my bias in the morning was up and the trend line I had established could provide support. But the target does fit in with current market structure and recent Lower low and lower high. Also many days we see reversals around the 10:30 to 11:30 time slots so if the day turns to a more normal distribution then it could make sense. 11:54 - Sideways chop here which suggests market is also unsure. Will be looking to put the time stop in place if does not resolve one way or another in the 30 minutes window.
12:07 - No movement or volume so took -3 on a time stop.

In between trade musings:

Whilst I was away getting food we had another ABC short confirmed at the same price that was missed this time supported by a hidden divergence signal on cumulative delta.
13:38 - ABC Long but pre-ceding action tight range so no trade as rules.

Third Trade:

14:15 – Big drive down and 1658.00 is a good MP level so long taken – it was a hard move so I am mindful that I need to see the “elastic band” pulling back hard. Target 1660.00 Stop 1656.00
14:18 - Getting bad feeling now – this is stalling and order flow looks like more to the downside. Stop to BE. 14:19 Glad I did that BE it is and momentum building more to the downside.
14:26 – Price finally turned at 53.50 so very good job I covered at scratch.

In between trade musings:

14:28 I did have order at 1652.00 as Friday’s low which was next logical long but missed by 3 ticks.

Best thing:

Pre market range analysis was accurate in terms of initial trade levels – but not in terms of anticipated extension. The 2 trades executed 100% according to rules. Positive day +17.

Worst thing:

Missing a signal while eating – buy hey there you go!! Also disappointing to only get 3 trades from the first full session in ages – but rules are rules – simples!!

Lesson of the day:

I am building confidence in my pre-market/trade analysis but will need to finish what I have started before adding this more firmly into any plan.

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to RTR1701 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Trade to bring the combine account back into the black by keeping risk tight and trading strictly in line with plan.

Day State:

At time of writing 11:00CST we have seen a move down from the holiday price action and I suspect will test at least the VAH from 30 Aug around 1633 – 1634. This is a full 3 points lower than current price and a second distribution forming with a top at 1640.00. So therefore shorts in market profile terms around 1640.00 would have acceptable risk reward, and longs 1633-1644 unless proven otherwise.




First trade:

11:59 Long Based on Market Profile as per analysis above. Entry 1633.50 Stop 1629.75 Target 1639.00. There are several profile levels in between entry and stop so have reasonable comfort in placing the trade which is in-line with trade plans exactly.
12:00 Traded down to 31.25 which is in region of POC from Aug 30 which is fine so far. Key really is for that level to hold – if it does not then my trade premise could be proved very wrong.
12:17 ABC long in support of trade but target would be 37.25 so adjusted price target to that level.
12:28 ABC Short now – if confirms then flat as rules.
12:40 ABC invalid.
12:43 DT signal short - which should mean flat but entry 2 ticks below so moved to BE only at this point in case bulls go for one last drive up. Triple top on zero volume at 35.50 suggests otherwise but two ticks of “profit” is worth the risk.
12:45 scratched


Second trade:

13:35 ABC Short confirmed entry 32.75 stop 36.50 target 29.00. This is in plan. Target is above next long target area of 28.50 so room for trade. Stop above the 35.50 triple top. Only concern is if the bulls decide that triple is enough as that will clearly then hit my stop in a stop run.
13:45 ABC long – not yet confirmed became invalid
13:55 Probe low of day by three ticks then sharp retrace up. This is a concern but not yet to the point of wanting to exit. I am mindful that this could be a step down range and I am near the time stop for this position
14:04 Stop hit -15.


Best thing:

Both trades taken according to plan.


Worst thing:

It is frustrating that watching the market I was able to “call” a few clear volume moves and levels / breaks. Yet I don’t have this in my trade plan. I am however determined to finish the combine with the rules I started with but use the lessons to tweak the plan appropriately at the end.


Lesson of the day:

I am feeling frustrated as I said – but rules are king even if I don’t like them – no discipline – no chance

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

After another losing day yesterday there is a real need to keep risk as tight as possible. A run of losing days is always a possibility – so keeping risk tight to make sure I keep well within both daily loss limit and maximum drawdown. I definitely don’t want to blow my first combine through hitting the drawdown.

Day State:

At time of writing 10:50CST we have already seen a strong trend develop and price is now testing lows from 23 & 26 August. Need to be careful ahead of the Beige Book, and I don’t think Profile Based Shorts are the order of the day at all for now.

For now looking to see long only signals unless we were to trade back below 1640 area as that might indicate change of bias.

So initially looking for long only signals.



13:14 and no trades have signalled. I am closing the TST combine with no trades for now, but may scalp in demo based on volume/order flow as an experiment.

Best thing:

Came into trade at top of the trend this morning. Maintained discipline and did not trade in combine at all as there were no rule based entries given.

Worst thing:

Sore eyes from staring at slo mo!!

Lesson of the day:

No trades, whilst tedious, is a good day, as rules kept and capital preserved to trade another day

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Simply to keep risk tight and take each trade on its own merits – no need to dwell on loses taken within trade rules.

Day State:

Must admit structurally I thought we would get some uplift today, then employment figures were not great – but market had a small up tick supporting that view. Then we took off down to the high from the 4th RTH which I really thought would hold but got blasted away and now we are looking at a strong trend day down.
For now looking to see short only signals unless we were to trade back above 1655 area as that might indicate change of bias.

So initially looking for short only signals.



First Trade:

Based on my initial thoughts and before I wrote the above when price hit 1654.75 and volume paused I went long based on the initial MP based levels trade – entry was 1655.25 and stop was tight at 1654.00, target was 1658.00 as RTH highs from yesterday. This is less than I would normally allow but my sub-conscious must have warned me this was dumb – probably the speed of move down – I don’t really know. In any case stop hit within seconds -5 ticks

09:15 ABC short signalled but stop would have to be placed beyond stop loss limit in rules. So passed on trade.

Second Trade:

09:27 Short from 1648.75 which is overnight low and top of RTH single prints from 4th. Stop 1650.75 Target 1641.25 which was VAH from 3rd and well inside current lows so good risk reward.
Immediately went against by 6 ticks played for a while then took the stop. -8 ticks

Third Trade:

12:23 After two previous failed fill sat this level I got short 1660.50 as fade play of the highs / Initial Balance High targeting just above POC as per rules stop 1662.50 target 1655.50 good risk reward so expect to hold this to target, stop or end of day if needed. Stop again -8.

Best thing:

Nothing – except perhaps the patience to wait for the levels and trading the rules I have.

Worst thing:

Three in a row stopped and seeing two perfect levels not fill – and then of course third time fill and stopped out.

Lesson of the day:

Mentally another ridiculously tough day. So much movement and no reward. Good levels blown through, good levels without fills that would have been winners. Seeing momentum changes and ranges but not in good locations or no signals, etc etc.

I know this combine will fail even half way through. BUT it has already proved a massive learn, so to the end I am eternally grateful!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
 RTR1701 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IG Index
Trading: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received

Hi all

Just for the record I will not be trading at all this week due to professional exams next week related to my day job, and there are simply not enough hours in the day to work, study and dedicate time to trading with discipline.

Best way forward sometimes is to take step back!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > RTR1701 TST Journal - Learn through reviewing


Last Updated on September 10, 2013


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
 

Our 12-year anniversary w/ $$,$$$ prizes (check soon)

June
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts