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RTR1701 TST Journal - Learn through reviewing
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RTR1701 TST Journal - Learn through reviewing

  #21 (permalink)
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Trades from 02 April 2013

Following on from the above post:

First Trade 6E:

This was a long from 1.2833 after a reversal from the daily noise band as shown on the analysis chart in the preceding post. This was supported by the previous three higher swing lows as marked below, but I did recognise that this would either work immediately or reverse. Hence tight stop at 1.2823, and target 1.2853. My risk restraint proved right as can been seen as the market has fallen since the trade.

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Second Trade ES:

This time long off the prior identified TPO VAL at 1564.25 with a stop at 1562.25 and target 1566.75 positive R/R but only just. What I failed to account for was the “coiled spring” I have now marked up as below, and we know what happens when a coiled spring is let go? In profile terms, this was an entirely foreseeable test of either the open or the low – both of which were surpassed and of course we rallied back into the close.

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Lessons from the day:

1/ one of the big tasks I set myself by committing my trading plan to paper was to give myself a set of rules and to stick to them, to stop the manic over trading and control risk. Today was a good example of patience and discipline.

2/ that said, there was a good learning point in the ES trade where I really need to adapt the trading plan to the real time assessment of the market state. One to remember!

As always - any comments welcome!

Graeme

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  #22 (permalink)
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Trades analysis 03 April 2013

Hi all

I have changed the style of charts to make things stand out a bit better so hopefully that will help read them.

My analysis is on the charts as set out below.

Since marking up the charts the TPO POC in the ES has dropped to 1553.50 and there is good former support turned resistance so I may try a short there with a close stop.

ES Analysis:

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6E Analysis:

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  #23 (permalink)
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Trades from 03 April 2013


Following on from the above post:

First Trade ES:

This was the short filled from 1553.00 as described in the analysis in the previous post above and noted in the chart below. Stop was placed at 1555.25 and target at 1549.50. The stop was more of a disaster stop as this type of trade should not go that far against you. So reward 3.5 risk 2.25 pts – 1.56 to 1.

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Second Trade ES:

This was my one and only attempt to walk in front of the fast moving train, but based on my premarket analysis and expectation of support at 1549 area I went long at 1548.50. This was supported by what I thought looked like a measured move as shown on the charts. I was only confident at that point on a retrace to the VOL and TPO VAL at 1551. Stop at 1547 so reward 2.5 pts risk 1.5 so 1.67 to 1. The market had not finished and went on lower, so tight risk was the right call in many ways.

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First Trade 6E:

As per pre session analysis I went short on a retest of 1.2860 and entered after a classic tweezer top formed as shown on the chart and filled at 1.2855. I had an initial target of 1.2835 as this was inside the virgin VAL and at this point I felt a move down as in order. Stop at 1.2865 so reward 30 - risk 10 or 3:1 was the best multiple expectation. The trade had an almost immediate retest, then after going about +4 it started to see two sided trade and I felt that the momentum was not there to carry the trade so accepted a scratch. Again this proved the right thing to do as at close we were still only at 1.2853.

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Third Trade ES:

This was another simple support turned resistance trade at the key level of 1551.00 as marked below and was filled at 1550.75. This one did take some heat and determined efforts by hopeful bulls, but each time the bears were aggressive in their defence which gave me the optimism to hold this trade. Target was 1548.50 and stop at 1552.75 as the trade was either right or wrong! Reward 2.25 pts – risk 2 pts so 1:1 more or less but at a higher probability location so acceptable and target was hit.

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So in all 4 trades 2 wins one scratch and one acceptable loss.

Lessons from the day:

1/ The loss today in hindsight was avoidable. Not because I chose to fight the moving train, and not even because the location ended up being premature, but because counter trend trades need some sort of confirmation, with trend retraces are more likely to respect former levels IMHO. So had I waited for confirmation I may have avoided that loss.

2/ One of my learns from the other day is to adapt to the developing market state, and that went well today.

Graeme

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  #24 (permalink)
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Trades analysis 04 April 2013

Hi all

Today is a later work pattern at my day job so I am up at 05:30 GMT – 11:30 Central to look for trades setting up in the overnight market and pre-London open.

I am still bearish in both my markets and have marked up the charts with potential entries and in the time it took to writs this I am short the ES already. There is every prospect that I may need to leave these longer than I would normally and my stops and targets are wider too so one lot trades if both fill which would leave me exposed to about 40% of my daily loss limit. Actually 6E just triggered so I am in both – will post entry and stop rationale separately.

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  #25 (permalink)
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Trades from 04 April 2013

Following on from the above post:

The trade entries stops and targets as marked below and I will edit this later dependant on when trades end – dependant on the day job /news etc etc:

ES Trade:

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6E Trade:

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UPDATE 08:55 GMT 02:55 Central

Target filled on 6E as below

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This may have some legs yet - but I will leave it there as need to go soon to the day job.

UPDATE 19:45 GMT 13:45 Central

So the ES trade had to be left on while I went to work and the bullishness returned – ended up in a wider consolidation/distribution range rather than the follow through I expected so of course I was stopped on the trade.

It has been a long day at work so no trades are likely in the US session today so ended win 1 loss but net in the green so all good.

Lessons from the day:

1/ The main lesson is that given one of the combine metrics is average losing trade duration v average win duration, I can’t really afford to leave a losing trade running like that – so with effect from my next UK pre-open session, no losing trades to be carried and winners to be at least BE + to secure winners which of course can be left to run if appropriate.

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.

Last edited by RTR1701; April 4th, 2013 at 04:12 PM. Reason: Update with trade result
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  #26 (permalink)
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Trades analysis 05 April 2013

Hi all

Arrived home to see that NFP has worked its magic again and as usual I am left trying to get back in too late – analysis below and I need to go concentrate – I think I may already have missed the trade I was looking for in the ES.

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  #27 (permalink)
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Trades from 05 April 2013

Following on from the above post:

I was lucky enough to finish the day job early and get almost a full session in all bar an hour today.

First Trade 6E:

This was the short with rationale as explained. I was aware the consolidation shown was not a classic tradable pattern per se and wanted to keep the trade tight in case especially with a psych round number right there!

So entry 1.3007 target 1.2987 stop 1.3028 so 20 ticks to 14 or 1.43:1. But it turned out that it was a rest before a powerful drive up so the tight stop was sensible as it turned out. -14

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First Trade ES:

This one was the confluence of a two legged pullback in a larger up move, TPO POC, and several support/resistance holds with a rising trendline close at hand for good measure so entry was at 1537.25 and initial target was 1542.50 with stop 1535.75 so a good 3.5:1 ratio. The target was based on my analysis that often NFP reaction often fills and the target front runs that initial down move.

I ended up covering when price made a serious stall and I wanted to protect the gain so closed at 1540.25. It did go on and reach my target to the tick but not much volume traded so doubt if I would have filled. +12

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Second Trade 6E:

As per pre session analysis I was still looking for a reason to short to fill the singles in 6E. So on seeing a strong move up to test and slightly exceed the previous high, and then volume and price started to stall I thought the time was right. So a trade could be made with a pretty tight stop and I was looking for a reversal to the POC. I filled at 1.3041 and the target was 1.3017 with the stop at 1.3051 so 2.5:1 at outset.

Price then flat lined at the previous double top and I felt it was time to cover. Price did go a further 5 ticks but that’s fine! +11

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Third Trade 6E:

Within a couple of minutes price popped down those 5 ticks and it screamed trap to me in addition we had a triple bottom reversal across three candles and POC shifted so it was time for another tight stop long. Entry was at 1.3027 target 1.3039 to front run the swing high and stop 1.3019 so 1.5 : 1

Again we had a stall which I think was around the developing volume POC so covered 1.3034 for + 7

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Second Trade ES:

Long trade at confluence POC and upward trend line – aggressive trade which either had to work immediately or fold so entry 1539.25 target was to VAH at 1.541 stop at 1538.25. The trade ran into some immediate churning volume and it no longer “felt right” so I scratched. Price went to my stop so I saved some money but price then did take the target so opportunity lost – scratch.

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Fourth Trade 6E:

Essentially a repeat of the last trade but in a different instrument! This time entry was 1.3020 and another tight stop at 14. Target was a new high at 50 so a good multiple R of 8.3:1

Price moved up had a stall about 27-28, then cleared that so became free trade either 1 tick or 30 and now won’t be touched unless I have to close at end of day! – Whilst writing Cyprus announced extended credit controls – and my stop was hit for +1.

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I actually think now is the time to stop as it has been a long week and I am getting jaded!!!

All in all 5 trades three winners one loss one scratch for total +17 – there were a couple of 2 lots in there on the tight trades so effectively works out to the equivalent of 31 ticks net of commissions.

Lessons from the day:

1/ This was a pretty good day for me and seemed somehow more connected to the ebbs and flows. I think that was more to do with the fact that I had the luxury of only missing one hour of the US session today so I was more able to “feel” the way the market was trading.

2/ It was also a good day in the sense that initial risk reward were a minimum 1.43 for the scalps and some considerably more for the longer trades so location wise I seemed to have reasonable entries.

Have a good weekend all!

Graeme

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  #28 (permalink)
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Overwhelming generosity

Hi all

I felt it was appropriate to post a couple of things that happened to me late last week. We live in a sometimes unpleasant world, so when people that you only know through a shared interest in trading show their generosity it is only fair that it is duly noted publicly.

First up a big thanks to @PandaWarrior who has provided some really good advice on my current path to the TST combine which will be implemented in coming weeks and I am eternally grateful for his help. The fact that he has taken the time to help is most gratefully received. And indeed there are many amazing members here that offer guidance and their immense practical or coding skills which allows others less gifted to share their work. Hats off to @Big Mike and all here!!

The second thing was an act of incredible generosity over at TST itself. Some of you will be aware of the "tick" program over there, which is basically a way of earning points (ticks) for participation in various parts of the site. One of the ways in which these ticks can be spent is on a combine - with various types of combine being redeemed for a specific amount of ticks.

The most amazing thing was that one of the members there (I have not asked if it is OK to name him so I won't) decided to gift me 3000 ticks which was enough to get me in reach of the amount needed for redemption for the $50k 20 day combine! It is heart warming in today's world that people can be so kind.

I am not going to move straight to the combine as I still have work to do, and I feel responsibility that the generosity should be repaid by giving that combine my very best.

So thank you to those specific individuals, and I wish everyone reading this a prosperous trading week!

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.

Last edited by RTR1701; April 7th, 2013 at 03:51 PM. Reason: typo
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  #29 (permalink)
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Trades analysis 08 April 2013

Hi all

After some initial issues getting the charts to load correctly here is today’s analysis and as previously described I am now looking at the 6E only for now:

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  #30 (permalink)
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Trade for 08 April 2013


Following on from the above post:

Slow day today and only the one trade taken in line with the analysis. As per the charts below Entry 1.3014 Target
1.2984 Stop 1.3030 so initial reward to risk 1.87:1

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Lessons from the day:

1/ I think with the exception of missing the shoulda coulda woulda as described on the chart, my read of the day was good. I recognised the changing market state, and the real and present danger to the trade and acted accordingly.

Graeme

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