This is a journal for me. I have been around trading forums before and have seen the good and the bad they bring out in people. The reason I joined futures.io (formerly BMT) was because after much lurking it seemed as though most people here are actually experienced, thoughtful and courteous traders here. (GaryD, comes to mind)
Bio:
Former US Air Force Officer (current US Air Force Organizational/Human efficiency engineer)
Coach Baseball, watch baseball...love baseball
Married and have 2 boys (who love baseball)
Anyway, I've been trading for about 5 years. Started with stocks, turned a $2k account into $28K by buying up Washington Mutual Preferred stock at @$1.45 per share and sold a good chunk on it's way up to $100 pps. After that I was hooked, I then used some of my profits to fund a forex account (back when forex was easy to do in the US w/ 500:1 leverage). I woke up 5 days a week at 0200 to trade the London open, which eventually took it's toll on me.
I had amazing success in Forex (until I became obsessed with "the perfect trade", you know the trade that you make and hold for 3+ hours raking in 100 pips in a day". I fell into the classic holy grail death sprial, so many of us have visited. At one point I had turned a $6K account into @$21K in less than 2 weeks. I started doubling my lot sizes etc...and of course lost it all.
But I had done it, been there and conquered the market (so I thought). It is that initial success that I have chasing ever since.
I took a break, read about the futures market and slowly started getting back into trading. So here I am ready to start a Journal for 2 reasons:
1. Accountability
2. Documentation of my experience (I used to take screen shots of my good trades but never the bad)
I will be posting my trades via screen shots which will show and document my DOM and Chart, so I can see what I was thinking at the time.
Why YM? Because I use 512t charts and it moves exactly like CL and at $5 per tick it just works for me. I have traded $200.00 ticks (pips) in the past and been whittled down to .10C pips as well. $5 per tick just works for me.
So clearly, I jumped the gun. Up Up Up. I updated my first post to show the kind of setup I trade. It's a pretty neat little visual cue that noticed and have been working to ID and trade effectively.
Looking at my mistakes today...sucks because yesterday I was killing it. But then again, yesterday it was swinging all over...today it's just churning up.
I wish I had the balls to trade CL...man, it's got some sweet moves, but $10/t and it costs me $1,500 in margin vs $500 for ES or YM.
Oh well, I'm done for the day -$150 ish.
I will be back Monday. "I'll be better tomorrow, because of today"
The following user says Thank You to pilotui for this post:
This day was hard to play with Cyprus in the neck...
Most of the day we were sitting in the range from 410 to 450.
You took the short trades in the middle or lower range.
IMO we had no big chance for a good short, as we had yesterday a Cyprus fear day, and today they had to deliver or at least not to disappoint. That's why I took the DB in the afternoon, thinking they would buy the market, as you can expect a Cyprus deal before the market will open on Monday. But I was out with 10 ticks as it was loosing steam, and so I missed the final move.
I think your idea to post charts with entry/stop/target and to use a journal is a good thing.
pilotui, thanks for starting this journal. The good news is that you kept your losses relatively small. Since you welcomed comments, I have two, with the first being the primary one:
1) Your mindset: Put very simply, you acknowledged it was 'clearly ... a pretty strong trend' and seemed to express concern about going against that strength, yet you did so anyway. Why?
There is nothing fundamentally wrong with shorting today's market (as I'll mention below), but there is something fundamentally wrong (IMO) with taking a trade while you indicate you think it's not really a good trade, and then saying "let's see what happens."
I used to love to fade trend days, and I think this was because I did not really trust myself, and so I would somehow doubt that it could be as easy as simply buying dips on a trend day up. Instead, I would take a low probability short, with a low potential reward even if that low probability played out. Sometimes we do things which we know are obviously poor ideas while we're doing them, yet we still do them.
2) Market state and trade location: I just erased a bunch of stuff I wrote that got too long to say this: if you're going to short a day like today, short the highs, and preferably, have a prepared plan before the open to find prices you think will be advantageous to trade so that your risk is reduced. Today was not a trend day, but clearly the bias was long. Look at this past Friday, Monday, and Tuesday and note the highs, all within 8 ticks of each other; what does that tell you about possible advantageous short trade location?
The scary trade is often the best trade, and it's much more likely to work, simply based on the nature of the game. Shorting after a 25 point pullback off the high in a market that is up, and has not yet pulled back 25 points yet today, is taking the easy trade that has tons of so-called confirmation, and yet is ironically less likely to work. Shorting a new high is scary, but when coupled with good trade location and in the right market context, it is much more likely to work, it just never feels that way, which is why we much prefer to sell low and buy high (when we are "more sure" and have "more confirmation" that a trade will work), which is the opposite of what we should be doing.
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I did well, but I will do better. Follow rules (ie, don't exit unless it's an emergency stop or I receive the exit signal on the higher TF...WITH THE TREND) Without the trend take the exit signal on the current TF.
The following user says Thank You to pilotui for this post:
Kronie, thanks for the note. Yeah I have VWAP on TOS but I have played with it quite a bit and found that if anything it adds confusion my decision process.
Now I just wait for the cross, trade the cross and SL @ local swing High/Low
Tried to guess at an entry and took a quick loss for -8 ticks instead of just waiting for the cross.
have to do better next time. But I recovered on the pull back and entered @ 14400.
Again, did not manage my panic and took a manual exit at +24 ticks ($+125.00) I changed the readout on my DOM to show only ticks and not actual money. (trying to fool myself into thinking about ticks as things and not actual money)
Still learning, but I feel very, very good about where I'm headed.
I am better today because of yesterday and I'll be better tomorrow because of today.
Alright, three straight days of a perm-trend chop.
I got a little jumpy early on trying to "cheat" my entry system with some thing I noticed in the charts...I have been practicing with TOS on-demand and going back to random days and trading via simulator. I picked up an add'l entry on a shorter TF which basically gets me into the trade anywhere from 5-7 bars earlier than if I wait for the entry, it also allows me to take an initital stop loss of around 4-5 ticks vs my normal swing high/low SL which varies wildly from 20-40 ticks. So that is a huge development.
My Goal is hit 1 quick swinging trade for @ 50 ticks each day, if the market really swings (on the tick charts) then I'll take add'l trades. With a 5 tick SL and a quick running trade to +50 ticks that is simply awesome.
Ok, to address today's trading:
Patience: Poor
Timing: Poor - I had 3 visible re-entries into the uptrend and stared blankly at both while measuring out small wins (to recent resistance levels) of +11, +6 and +16. Did I take any of those obvious trades? Nope, just stared at the screen.
All together, through poor timing on shorts with small SL's I found myself down -17 ticks on the day.
Then I saw a decent albeit against the trend short setting up. I used my new entry, entered the market @ 14497 Short with a target at the 50% retracement of the AM move up (14480) The best part about this trade was
1- I saw it coming on 3 different tick charts
2- my SL was only 3 ticks (per my newfound earlier entry)
3- I pulled my exit down at the last second and grabbed a few more ticks - but most importantly I exited.
* Since I was down on the day my trading mindset had changed. Instead of having the patience to let this trade play out which set up on my 2 main tick time frames...I just had to take the money and run. Which was being driven by my desperate need for redemption (classic human).
As you can see from the chart I actually ended up +3 ticks which should put me at -$15.00 on the day (I'll take it) after commissions and fee's.
No trading tomorrow b/c of good friday (really? WTF...)
I battled today, and am proud of that...but I am disappointed in myself for getting in a negative position early. Some days will swing and some will perma-trend. This has been a real test of me and my system. Traditionally in Forex and Futures I would have railed hard against the trend of the day and had lost an account doing so. (See my first post/trade shot for a perfect example of how I used to trade against the trend).
I'm still learning and am close to where I have imagined myself for the last 5 years. I just have to keep at it and keep getting better. Making up for losses is part of trading, and I did that successfully.
Thanks Sir, reading through your whole Journal was what made me remember all the success I used to have and how I lost it. I have now gone back to my roots.
Well, some days you're lucky. I forgot to check the news and sure enough I found myself in the chop early on. -$65.00. Again, not trading the plan. Hmmm there seems to be a pattern developing where I get down first then start trading the plan. Anyway, I had a great short signal with a 6 tick SL...at 0859 right before the ISM news was released it shot up and missed my SL by 1 tick! Then in less than 1 second it shot down and hit my emergency exit of +20 ticks.
I ended up with +$50 pnl closed after that trade. Then watched 2 more perfect setups come and go, each one producing $100 winning trades. (Eventually I will get to the point where I just trade and stop over-thinking).
But all in all I did well. Took one more signal for a short and ended the day +$100.00
So I feel good!
I'll be better tomorrow because of today.
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at myself. My goal of this session was to "see an entry and take it". I did it on Trade #1, quick hitter to +10 ticks/$50. Done. Ok, waited for next signal...ehhh short against the trend but I took it...SL of only 5 ticks. SL was hit on #2.
Reversed...instead of waiting for the entry (IDIOT!) and found myself panicking when price pulled back...-5 ticks on that one. so BE on the day (not counting comm's).
Now, this is my pattern: I lose first then become hesitant and miss a great signal (see yesterday's post) Today, I won first, then lost, then lost again...and became hesitant and missed a PERFECT, a PERFECT entry: SL from entry was 4 ticks and I planned on YM making a new high above 1600. Yep, stood there and watched as it went up 39 ticks!
Argghhhhh. Then I just went haywire...found myself down -26 ticks @ $-160.00 with Comms.
Calmed myself, hit on a quick continuation trade for +10...and found a (finally) decent short entry with an amazing R:R. My entry short was at 97, SL at 00 (2 ticks) and exit @ 77. I let it get down to +10 ticks before Taking Profit.
So end of the day: I'm done -6 ticks for $-30.00 + @ $57.00 in comms (BRUTAL) I really need to work on the following:
1. Trading no more than 5 times per day (thats (10) contracts...5 buy/5 sell contracts total...puts me at @ $25.00 MAX in Comms/fees)
2. Seeing an Entry and TAKING THAT ENTRY
3. I am already set up to cut my losers short w/ my new SL...I have to find a better way to let the winners run!
Goal/understanding of reality: I will not hit profits on all 5 trades every day. I am OK with losing 5 ticks on 3 bad trades but hitting runners on 2 good trades (20+ ticks each)
Make it happen.
I will be better tomorrow because of today
The following user says Thank You to pilotui for this post:
A fresh perspective and motivation...is all I need.
My 9 day challenge: Starts 0830 3 Apr 2013
Mission: Profit $100.00 every day for 9 days...NLT 15 Apr
ROE:
1. Make at least $100.00 per day for 9 days
2. Will not exceed 5 trades per day
3. See an entry, confirm on higher TF and TAKE IT
4. Stop Losses are already low <10 ticks, so I will let my winners run
5. Exit on level breaks per my system
I will do this because I can and could have been doing it every day...yet I get "cute" and try to jump trades that are already great R:R trades. I see profit and take it, instead of waiting for my exit signal.
Alright, I did it. +23 ticks on 2 trades! Yay for not overtrading!!!
See you can do it anytime you want...he have to make a conscious decision and have a set plan (ie no more than 5 trades per day)
GOOD JOB!
First short, the market moved so quickly (<1sec) for a 8 tick drop I missed my system entry @ 96ish and got taken in at 84. But for the first time in a LONG TIME...I let my winner run! Moved my SL to +1 for a free trade on the house.
Exited at my Exit signal for +18 ticks!
Trade 2 was just a quick continuation short...easy to see easy to get.
+5
+23 on the day in 2 trades. $100? Check.
I was better today, because of yesterday. I'll be better tomorrow, because of today.
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Platform: "I trade, therefore, I AM!"; Theme Song: "Atomic Dog!"
Trading: EMD, 6J, ZB
Posts: 798 since Oct 2009
good targets,
good chart setup,
good goal,
hope you make it consistently,
also, you might want to thank the YM contract, in that it is tied to reality, and not as easily manipulated as the other contracts that just don't seem to be (tied to reality or an underlying index). NQ, and a few others don't follow the same market constraints as tighly, and as such, would not yield such tight co-relation to their underlying or to the analytics used on your charts.
the crossover method is one of the most complex entry level methods out there. its described in just about every trading book, and TA book showing when and how an indicator is really useful.
somehow you have taken that, turned it on its head and proved with active charts and a reasonable measure of clarity, and achieved success.
hats off to you....
seriously...
((hey, where's my signature of the you tube video of Gene, jumping out of his first floor trading office?))
Have you considered a weekly goal, if you must have one? Or even every two weeks? $500 in one day, $200 in another, $150 in 4 more, and 4 days of $75 in losses is still $1000
It's just a lot of pressure to try to make $100 when you are not "on." Making $100 a day for 10 straight days is possible, I've had 10 day win streaks, but even when I'm really on (which I'm not this week), I still usually have a losing day per week on average.
Just something to consider, good luck with your goal, cheering for you!
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
18 ticks in YM are not that much for letting a winner run. It moved more than 100 ticks (in hindsight).
How much do we need to be on a realistic path (commissions , slippage, etc)? If 18 ticks is a runner (...first time in a LONG TIME...), what is your average trade? And what R/R? 1/3 on 18 would be 6 tick, what could be noise in YM.
Just some thoughts without knowing your trading plan/system.
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As for my weekly goal: my 9 day challenge is really an exercise in control and discipline. It doesn't really equate to my monetary goals. I want to make $900 over the next 9 days. Yes, I may have a bad day or two and make up for it with a big day (just like you said).
My ultimate goal is to become a disciplined trader who lives for banking @ 20 ticks on YM every day.
Sure, YM moves a lot and can be very liquid. I could have had 100 ticks...etc... I have played that game before in Forex and spent many, many sleepless weeks (WEEKS) trying to capture every move and every pip.
I have found a way to take a bite and stop, be satisfied. Sure after a year of doing this and my account is over $50,000 then I may scale back my contract size a bit and try getting 2 or even 3 trades under my belt, but in my experience it's all about market exposure.
See, if I can "lock down" 20 ticks every day with the same repeatable setups and gradually increase my contract size why would I want to "trade" more? Just make money and stop.
Eventually I can see myself sitting at home and making 20 ticks (trading 20 contracts of YM) @ $100.00 per tick.
I've traded this level in the past and it destroyed me because I would make money (this was in FOREX) like $600-1,200 in a trade and turn right around and try to make more and more and more. One day in particular stands out...I woke up at 01:50 AM to trade the london open...shorted USD/CHF for an amazing profit of 6,571.00 in < 2 hours. Went to sleep at 0500, woke up for work at 0640 and then started trading at work...scalping mind you. I had within 30 minutes whittled my profit down to $337.00 The difference between me then and me now is I have had success and failure and know that I prefer success. Only through moderation and control will I experience it again. It's not about "trading" or "systems" it's about putting money in your savings account.
Wow, I digress (seriously)
Point: Yes YM moves 100's of ticks in a day
Counterpoint: I only desire to take 20 of those
Thanks for the comments, I really appreciate them. Not trading (heck not even having my charts up) has been slightly painful yet rewarding at the same time.
Oh, sorry about that I got caught up in my own thoughts.
Average trade: 5-10 ticks
Ideally a good runner would move 15-50 ticks in <30 min
My stops are averaging 6 ticks. Last week I had a couple 2 or 3 tick stops and my default target is 20 ticks on every trade. I usually manage them to death and manually take myself out for a profit of 5-10 ticks.
Thus the whole point of my "runner" LOL today at +18 in one trade was a solid psychological event for me.
The following user says Thank You to pilotui for this post:
What a freakin' day. Big clear moves on YM and I got long at the open, chickened out and closed it for a loss when price pulled back before rocketing up to the 55 level.
1. I overtraded!! I'm done for the day at 8 turns ($40.00 in comms)
2. I got called into an un-planned meeting and was unable to watch the charts, so when I got back I scrambled (almost to the point of panic, that I was not in the market with those huge moves) Arrghhhh.
3. I found myself down -20 ticks. Exactly where I DO NOT WANT TO BE!!
How did I get there?
1. Did not follow the plan
2. Panicked...manually closed trades and did not rely on SL to take me out
3. Meeting screwed me up...just stay out until you are comfortable
4. Recovery: Really "traded" for the last hour...battling back..ID'ing S/R key level breaks (GOOD JOB)
Lessons learned:
1. TRADE THE PLAN (THE PLAN IS THE ENTRY with small SL) It's not hard...just do it
2. Wait for the exit on higher TF!!!!!
So I ended up getting a perfect short signal and entered quickly (good) and held it for quite a while (closed it out at +26 ticks...so ended up -$25.00 on the day (including commissions)
Another day of learning, but I'm proud of myself for not giving up and accepting the loss. I waited patiently for a good signal and then followed the higher TF. The only thing I didn't do was to wait for the exit signal...could have actually ended the day +$30-$50.
Was -11 after a poorly planned trade. I then waited for and execute a short on a perfect signal...found myself +23 ticks in < 10 min. AND DID NOT TAKE PROFIT.
Moved SL to BE and got 0
Traded a few more times until I was out of control...increasing my contract size...basically it was like an out of body experience...I just lost it.
$-500.00 on the day
I'm more disappointed in myself than anything. My entry's are good I just didn't have a feel for the market today.
Rule #1 when you're down...get back to BE, I could have done that +12 ticks profit yet I became greedy (sensing a larger move down) only to watch it magnetically attract back up.
The whole $100.00 a day concept was the way to go...but I started over-analyzing charts and re-evaluating my system...trying to see if I do x then I can make xx more ticks...blah blah blah. Holy grail death spiral again.
I though you were above that now? What kind of rigid, steel encased rules must I create to keep account safe from myself?!??!?
How do I lock my mind and body into the concept of "I ONLY NEED 20 ticks per day"? Why isn't that good enough?
So frustrated. Some mornings I wake up and feel like 20 ticks, is no problem...then there are days like today where I just get greedy. If I take a 20 tick trade and then check back the next day and see 10 more I could have had It makes me trade differently today. I allow the thoughts of "well today I'll go for 40 ticks, or 80 ticks".
Why cannot I not be satisfied with a crystal clear entry, fixed TP point and minimal SL? WHY??????????
The following 2 users say Thank You to pilotui for this post:
thanks the journal. sorry to see you in frustration but some feedback if i may:
1)
"Rule #1 when you're down...get back to BE,......"
Can you elaborate on the statement above? Are you suggesting then when your position is in drawdown, the goal/target of that position is to BE, changed from original goal/target? Or are you suggesting when your account equity is in drawdown, the goal of trades (opening new positions) from there on is to bring the account equity to break even?
In either case the objective should not be subject to drawdown, unless that is already part of the actual trade setup or trading/business plan.
2)
"
How do I lock my mind and body into the concept of "I ONLY NEED 20 ticks per day"? Why isn't that good enough?
...
Why cannot I not be satisfied with a crystal clear entry, fixed TP point and minimal SL? WHY??????????"
Did you do a study over a period of time where given time interval during the day you know how many setups or signals you get on the average. If you have that number then how does that statistically translate into gains, lossed, MFE, MAE etc....
Perhaps based on the collected statistics you can determine parameters of your expectancy, rather than picking up arbitrary tick number profit goal.
This is my first post in my new journal. In it I will attempt to document my set ups, my reasoning behind why I took the trades, along with the emotions I was feeling during the trades.
I will also attempt to post a chart daily and at least once a week, …
Your daily goal is to make $250
Your daily goal is to make 20 ticks
Your daily loss limit is < $100
Your entries are high probability
Your rules are fixed
Your average SL is 6 ticks
Your average trade is 5-10 ticks
You are talking about $ loss, ticks profit etc. Instead of followed my rules. Reversed trades... Missed to take profits...
I see a lot of fragments, but not a picture nor a plan.
If you have your plan, then stick with it.
If you have your high probability entries, then execute them.
If you don't know where to set the target, then take a fix amount (to start) and stick with it.
If you have no written and rewritten and tested and retested plan, then do it.
and am proud of that...but I am disappointed in myself for getting in a negative position early. Some days will swing and some will perma-trend. This has been a real test of me and my system. Traditionally in Forex and Futures I would have railed hard against the trend of the day and had lost an account doing so. (See my first post/trade shot for a perfect example of how I used to trade against the trend). 
